Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 25, 2022

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DAY 207 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/26/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.21°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.25°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.23°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.323 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 3 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.15 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.31 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.48 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.79 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 164 in SWE DAY: 114 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.49 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 74.19 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -78 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-04-26 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	207	-78	38.21	28.25006	33.23003	163.9662075	0.14999999999998	0.30999999999998	6.48	6.79	T	T	6.21	3.21	114	452.48880960521	74.192874047156	0.3234132122589	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-26 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	207	-77	27.97	27.97	27.97	166.01474909398	0.0036	0.1636	6.48	6.6436	T	T	-4.03	-7.03	115	453.79211372309	75.336183900563	0.069075417747587	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-77	36.81	27.2	32.005	166.40052222738	0.1234	0.2834	6.48	6.7634	T	T	4.81	1.81	115	453.93325065944	75.534729966104	0.27487602551814	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-77	34.37	27.93	31.15	166.62170160553	0.1823	0.3423	6.48	6.8223	T	T	2.37	-0.63	115	454.01410783398	75.648603200215	0.1998670676913	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-25 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	207	-77	36	27.9	31.95	167.08810003158	0.2256	0.3856	6.48	6.8656	T	T	4	1	115	454.18446161932	75.888818755836	0.24853332150996	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-25 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	37	28.66	32.83	169.67718953899	0.2907	0.4507	6.48	6.9307	T	T	5	-12	114	454.5829038993	77.132349546104	0.28124836921309	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-24 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	35.38	29.15	32.265	170.78209023212	0.277	0.437	6.48	6.917	T	T	3.38	-3.62	114	454.98455197691	77.703212809942	0.22931578859279	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-24 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	35.08	29.57	32.325	170.85836493398	0.2919	0.4519	6.48	6.9319	T	T	3.08	-3.92	114	455.01223741126	77.742646909041	0.22032421202493	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	35.81	29.56	32.685	170.09127126273	0.293	0.453	6.48	6.933	T	T	3.81	-3.19	114	454.73356093242	77.346209464821	0.24255458805193	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	35.58	29.42	32.5	170.04243380065	0.2731	0.4331	6.48	6.9131	T	T	3.58	-5.42	114	454.7158004416	77.320981394699	0.23542249064133	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-24 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	35.91	29.69	32.8	170.20842814331	0.2876	0.4476	6.48	6.9276	T	T	3.91	-4.09	114	454.77615784499	77.406734983847	0.24569155717135	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	35.84	29.5	32.67	172.80796524313	0.2925	0.2925	6.48	6.7725	T	T	3.84	-14.16	114	455.7180663681	78.751711773606	0.24349339864062	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	35.52	28.86	32.19	173.01981172956	0.2695	0.2695	6.48	6.7495	T	T	3.52	-5.48	114	455.79455247546	78.861487656663	0.23358112952308	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-23 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	35.24	28.99	32.115	172.84212633595	0.2757	0.2857	6.48	6.7657	T	T	3.24	-5.76	114	455.73040284207	78.769411863164	0.22509439177062	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	35.17	29.38	32.275	172.41060104944	0.2546	0.2646	6.48	6.7446	T	T	3.17	-5.83	114	455.57448897969	78.545871467781	0.22300028664919	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-23 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	36.23	30.12	33.175	172.38793717988	0.2265	0.2365	6.48	6.7165	T	T	4.23	-4.77	114	455.56629560094	78.534133947326	0.25587432777773	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-23 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	36.2	30.03	33.115	172.14382412406	0.2218	0.2318	6.48	6.7118	T	T	4.2	-7.8	114	455.47801462515	78.407727242007	0.25491043849398	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-23 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	35.57	29.39	32.48	174.5864028624	0.223	0.273	6.38	6.653	T	T	3.57	-10.43	114	456.35888662853	79.674056430763	0.23511504281394	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	35.44	27.93	31.685	174.85700589302	0.2334	0.2834	6.45	6.7334	T	T	3.44	-6.56	114	456.45613889618	79.814553768877	0.23113843284627	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	34.67	29.59	32.13	175.12694076999	0.3727	0.4427	6.45	6.8927	T	T	2.67	-7.33	114	456.55308446113	79.954744980779	0.20836820103651	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-22 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	39.23	28.4	33.815	175.04728524706	0.317	0.377	6.45	6.827	T	T	7.23	-1.77	114	456.52448354921	79.913371494105	0.36084092416583	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-22 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	35.87	28.67	32.27	174.75012313207	0.2305	0.2905	6.45	6.7405	T	T	3.87	-10.13	114	456.41773419092	79.759055249521	0.24443416558781	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-22 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	38.31	30.14	34.225	175.06087304443	0.2292	0.3792	6.44	6.8192	T	T	6.31	-3.69	114	456.52936275896	79.920428815002	0.32701205645091	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	37.75	28.92	33.335	175.00399509118	0.1919	0.3519	6.11	6.4619	T	F	5.75	-12.25	114	456.50893746743	79.89088785163	0.3070744787317	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	37.32	29.71	33.515	173.77478207534	0.1605	0.2505	6.28	6.5305	T	F	5.32	-7.68	114	456.06679627441	79.252908134382	0.29213907065594	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	36.87	30	33.435	173.85217897159	0.1203	0.2503	6.28	6.5303	T	F	4.87	-10.13	114	456.09467625625	79.29305328449	0.27688064654188	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	37.03	30.55	33.79	174.59750852465	0.0999	0.2099	6.29	6.4999	T	F	5.03	-12.97	114	456.36287921803	79.679821694606	0.28226100382514	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-21 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	34.82	30.44	32.63	175.4096554587	0.1007	0.2307	6.37	6.6007	T	F	2.82	-27.18	114	456.65454858335	80.101617030653	0.21269739058931	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-21 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	38.72	29.36	34.04	175.25217148512	0.0807	0.2707	6.5	6.7707	T	T	6.72	-11.28	114	456.59803778853	80.019797618284	0.34193299032878	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	42.75	29.84	36.295	177.37345727851	0.0944	0.2244	6.31	6.5344	T	F	10.75	-10.25	114	457.35733466712	81.123051661591	0.49826614048159	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	41.27	29.52	35.395	176.68038928551	0.0646	0.1846	6.66	6.8446	T	T	9.27	-11.73	114	457.10970648725	80.762320888351	0.43947938742066	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-20 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	41.32	29.52	35.42	176.42416901162	0.0646	0.1746	6.61	6.7846	T	T	9.32	-11.68	114	457.0180504136	80.629029767532	0.44145108691069	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	45.98	35.31	40.645	177.2102214818	0.0411	0.0611	6.69	6.7511	T	T	13.98	1.98	114	457.29905093656	81.038066099886	0.62495865004929	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-04-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	45.98	35.31	40.645	177.57484801977	0.0411	0.0611	6.77	6.8311	T	T	13.98	-0.020000000000003	114	457.42920842121	81.2279221652	0.62495865004929	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-04-20 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	45.98	35.31	40.645	178.04404754186	0.0411	0.0611	6.77	6.8311	T	T	13.98	-0.020000000000003	114	457.59651712875	81.472336050659	0.62495865004929	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-04-20 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	44.13	34.17	39.15	174.36489477906	0.1296	0.1496	6.41	6.5596	T	F	12.13	-10.87	114	456.27922886982	79.559079731759	0.55314087901727	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-04-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	44.13	34.17	39.15	173.17959273411	0.1296	0.1496	6.57	6.7196	T	T	12.13	-2.87	114	455.85221338195	78.94430066043	0.55314087901727	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-04-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	44.13	34.17	39.15	173.43365911324	0.1296	0.1496	6.54	6.6896	T	T	12.13	-6.87	114	455.94385131017	79.076010482905	0.55314087901727	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-04-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	42.59	34.47	38.53	174.3497461639	0.0447	0.0647	6.54	6.6047	T	F	10.59	-11.41	114	456.27377955424	79.551217646524	0.49188607138839	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-04-19 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	42.59	34.47	38.53	174.88155778291	0.0447	0.0647	6.67	6.7347	T	T	10.59	-11.41	114	456.46495931497	79.827303158312	0.49188607138839	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-04-19 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	43.05	34.52	38.785	175.42645995452	0.0447	0.0547	6.76	6.8147	T	T	11.05	-5.95	114	456.66057729352	80.110348475389	0.51022868241103	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-04-19 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	43.65	30.94	37.295	180.6648747133	0.0491	0.3391	6.21	6.5491	T	F	11.65	-24.35	114	458.52740168555	82.839795578136	0.53411545386895	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-04-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	44.9	31.15	38.025	178.07438519222	0.0742	0.3742	6.83	7.2042	T	T	12.9	-14.1	114	457.60732816635	81.488143622676	0.58338909050315	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-04-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	43.62	31.19	37.405	177.91075232536	0.0226	0.3326	6.74	7.0726	T	T	11.62	-17.38	114	457.54900655724	81.402887982322	0.5329233127749	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-04-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	36.66	33.07	34.865	181.49146009617	0.0709	0.4509	6.79	7.2409	T	T	4.66	-22.34	114	458.81971123774	83.271859313441	0.26989594445941	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-18 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	34.84	32.37	33.605	181.7351762261	0.0071	0.3971	6.74	7.1371	T	T	2.84	-22.16	114	458.90578071352	83.399322929147	0.21327855011556	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-18 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	207	-78	34.77	32.37	33.57	183.07759032354	0.0034	0.3934	6.95	7.3434	T	T	2.77	-27.23	114	459.37890664941	84.101983274836	0.21124853572643	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L