Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 23, 2022

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DAY 205 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/24/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.41°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.55°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.98°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.324 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 15 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.16 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.60 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.04 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.64 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 170 in SWE DAY: 112 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.65 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 77.17 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -80 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-04-24 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	205	-80	39.41006	26.54996	32.98001	170.1079275	0.16000000000008	0.60000000000008	6.04	6.6400000000001	T	T	7.41006	15.41006	112	453.64745385324	77.169028190627	0.32448538742404	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-04-24 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	205	-79	29.55	29.55	29.55	173	0	0.44	6.04	6.48	T	F	-2.45	5.55	113	455.24634606566	78.757617869359	0.060990719671077	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-23 12:00:01	FORECAST	2022	205	-79	38.86	31.32	35.09	172.76394933333	0	0.44	6.04	6.48	T	F	6.86	14.86	113	455.16078975489	78.635375619734	0.30292209924242	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-23 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	205	-79	39.46	27.02	33.24	172.79752003837	0.0024	0.4424	6.04	6.4824	T	F	7.46	15.46	113	455.17296055003	78.65275877157	0.32647402483266	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-23 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	205	-79	39.89	27.93	33.91	172.45227523012	0.0048	0.4448	6.04	6.4848	T	F	7.89	15.89	113	455.04774520183	78.474018998389	0.343796093511	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	40.38	28.29	34.335	174.82895263544	0.0138	0.3538	6.04	6.3938	T	F	8.38	11.38	112	455.36691441271	79.611320711608	0.36394057421594	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-22 20:00:01	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	39.22	29.27	34.245	174.83140552807	0.0125	0.4225	6.04	6.4625	T	F	7.22	15.22	112	455.36780244056	79.612592932911	0.31696312300531	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-22 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	40.4	28.94	34.67	174.83790964826	0.0214	0.4314	6.04	6.4714	T	F	8.4	16.4	112	455.37015711934	79.615966386945	0.36477129116742	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	40.59	29.57	35.08	175.07604630163	0.0205	0.4305	6.04	6.4705	T	F	8.59	16.59	112	455.45634266397	79.739495736607	0.37269426929888	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-22 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	39.83	27.27	33.55	175.07083668514	0.0084	0.4184	6.04	6.4584	T	F	7.83	10.83	112	455.45445777636	79.736792994885	0.34135825059945	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-22 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	39.65	29.21	34.43	175.49878797049	0.0123	0.4123	6.04	6.4523	T	F	7.65	16.65	112	455.60921142514	79.958864393304	0.33408466371647	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	39.73	29.35	34.54	175.01174151484	0.0129	0.0829	6.04	6.1229	T	F	7.73	9.73	112	455.43307484891	79.706135572764	0.33730988511685	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-04-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	39.2	29.54	34.37	174.10509355412	0.0141	0.2541	6.04	6.2941	T	F	7.2	13.2	112	455.10461172576	79.236031001423	0.31617586371393	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-21 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	39.34	28.82	34.08	174.05767797792	0.0076	0.2476	6.04	6.2876	T	F	7.34	14.34	112	455.08741304705	79.21145839195	0.32170397989066	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	38.14	28.85	33.495	174.84779731626	0.0159	0.2659	6.04	6.3059	T	F	6.14	12.14	112	455.37373666531	79.621094811604	0.2757110656323	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	37.66	28.67	33.165	175.38607601237	0.0193	0.3493	6.04	6.3893	T	F	5.66	3.66	112	455.56846939499	79.90036620215	0.25826289012799	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-21 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	38.19	28.77	33.48	175.44534358545	0.0196	0.4796	6.04	6.5196	T	T	6.19	12.19	112	455.58989431906	79.931125542867	0.27756132074236	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	37.99	27.89	32.94	177.93495121547	0.0218	0.5018	5.83	6.3318	T	F	5.99	8.99	112	456.48696762714	81.224986315235	0.27019690032823	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-04-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	37.96	28.37	33.165	177.16049589384	0.0184	0.5484	6.13	6.6784	T	T	5.96	9.96	112	456.20851793374	80.822127268137	0.26910071428008	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-04-20 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	39.57	28.55	34.06	176.95587763304	0.0191	0.4991	6.13	6.6291	T	T	7.57	9.57	112	456.13485742544	80.715744014741	0.33087164047613	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-04-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	40.98	28.3	34.64	178.66287881514	0.017	0.577	6.13	6.707	T	T	8.98	13.98	112	456.74818972225	81.60394646938	0.38912358107797	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-04-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	40.98	27.18	34.08	179.0275053531	0.0194	0.5894	6.2	6.7894	T	T	8.98	11.98	112	456.87885715161	81.793882044429	0.38912358107797	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-04-20 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	40.98	27.18	34.08	179.49670487519	0.0194	0.5894	6.2	6.7894	T	T	8.98	11.98	112	457.04682135883	82.03839840759	0.38912358107797	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-04-20 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	38.1	28.19	33.145	175.57789344573	0.0187	0.4887	5.94	6.4287	T	F	6.1	2.1	112	455.6377987434	79.999924877616	0.27423523455093	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	38.1	28.19	33.145	174.39259140078	0.0187	0.4887	6.1	6.5887	T	T	6.1	10.1	112	455.20884921297	79.385050842817	0.27423523455093	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-19 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	38.1	28.19	33.145	174.6466577799	0.0187	0.4687	6.09	6.5587	T	T	6.1	6.1	112	455.30090218856	79.516780851407	0.27423523455093	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	33.83	27.62	30.725	175.4954501639	0.0168	0.4568	6.1	6.5568	T	T	1.83	4.83	112	455.60800507463	79.957131948848	0.14177283544873	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-19 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	33.83	27.62	30.725	176.02726178291	0.0168	0.4668	6.22	6.6868	T	T	1.83	4.83	112	455.8000835574	80.233240629029	0.14177283544873	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-19 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	38.79	26.99	32.89	176.58375328785	0.0147	0.4447	6.33	6.7747	T	T	6.79	8.79	112	456.00079825677	80.522332458437	0.30022451575419	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-19 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	35.87	26.14	31.005	180.77428279812	0.0764	0.5464	5.74	6.2864	T	F	3.87	-4.13	112	457.5031558597	82.704804878413	0.19858668670276	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-04-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	34.4	26.21	30.305	178.28532599727	0.0896	0.6396	6.28	6.9196	T	T	2.4	5.4	112	456.61276244648	81.407355207287	0.15641298374343	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-04-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	34.4	26.19	30.295	177.89153386652	0.095	0.585	6.25	6.835	T	T	2.4	3.4	112	456.47137172861	81.202392482955	0.15641298374343	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-04-18 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	32.81	28.5	30.655	181.83921898098	0.2458	0.7258	6.31	7.0358	T	T	0.81	1.81	112	457.88240744784	83.260979355445	0.11795016514791	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-04-18 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	34.11	28.92	31.515	181.6836785882	0.2767	0.6767	6.34	7.0167	T	T	2.11	6.11	112	457.82707940526	83.179707943637	0.14884472649133	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-04-18 04:00:08	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	34.09	28.94	31.515	182.97983931347	0.2767	0.7267	6.5	7.2267	T	T	2.09	1.09	112	458.28747594616	83.857368708007	0.14833192891916	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-04-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	33.18	28.29	30.735	183.6160452394	0.2046	0.5246	6.42	6.9446	T	T	1.18	-6.82	112	458.51290243711	84.190325836741	0.12624248200685	16	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-04-17 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	36.11	28.54	32.325	182.5936445167	0.08	0.34	6.47	6.81	T	T	4.11	-1.89	112	458.1504579732	83.655361858321	0.20606999675184	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-17 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	36.08	28.54	32.31	183.39575050509	0.08	0.33	6.6	6.93	T	T	4.08	-0.92	112	458.43488675356	84.075010113888	0.20512555881154	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	38.01	29.49	33.75	184.21335492501	0.2129	0.4529	6.75	7.2029	T	T	6.01	7.01	112	458.72421554708	84.503126731273	0.27092892805459	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-17 08:00:04	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	37.97	29.49	33.73	184.47696534059	0.2129	0.4629	6.76	7.2229	T	T	5.97	8.97	112	458.81737234948	84.641236496576	0.2694658618531	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-17 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	37.5	29.16	33.33	183.80184719162	0.0908	0.3108	6.64	6.9508	T	T	5.5	8.5	112	458.57866883999	84.287606415465	0.25257650345828	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	42	31.54	36.77	187.53930372686	0.0498	0.4198	6.48	6.8998	T	T	10	9	112	459.89500770592	86.248389532625	0.43296741425279	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-16 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	42.07	31.7	36.885	184.84785921086	0.0495	0.3895	6.75	7.1395	T	T	10.07	16.07	112	458.94833628207	84.835617450129	0.4360134032866	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	40.18	30.95	35.565	186.53784226418	0.0383	0.4883	6.88	7.3683	T	T	8.18	13.18	112	459.54351587758	85.722255878298	0.35566911530632	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-04-16 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	34.78	30.7	32.74	187.25285893235	0.0534	0.2834	6.73	7.0134	T	T	2.78	10.78	112	459.79456290844	86.097846426157	0.1667060681415	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-16 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	31.93	30.38	31.155	187.78566096132	0.0477	0.3777	6.71	7.0877	T	T	-0.07	5.93	112	459.98133695469	86.377899389907	0.099790798814299	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-04-16 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	205	-80	31.87	30.76	31.315	187.91336684785	0.0302	0.3702	6.71	7.0802	T	T	-0.13	3.87	112	460.02606678356	86.445047047074	0.098631247506519	16	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L