MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 1, 2022

[ Thursday, March 31, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 2, 2022 ]

DAY 183 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/02/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.62°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.357
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 9

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.67 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.17 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.84 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 134 in
SWE DAY: 90
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 426.04 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 57.12 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -102

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-04-02 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022183-10234.5700422.6700628.62005134.077815833330.120.673.173.84TF2.570048.5700490426.03968241765 57.1224700768860.3573247687583116 2113126DRYL
2022-04-02 00:00:02FORECAST2022183-10128.7828.7828.78133.026023641770.00650.55653.173.7265TF-3.222.7891426.2335084388456.7001487705010.14643836156498161113124.5DRYL
2022-04-01 12:00:01FORECAST2022183-10137.4727.7732.62133.107377253710.07120.62123.173.7912TF5.4711.4791426.2689776244756.7395456162120.49121309615659162113126DRYL
2022-04-01 08:00:01FORECAST2022183-10136.7424.2530.495133.119111936580.06330.61333.173.7833TF4.7410.7491426.2740931987156.7452287281820.45679222307813162113126DRYL
2022-04-01 04:00:04FORECAST2022183-1013525.3230.16133.349944537060.05590.60593.173.7759TF3991426.3746905150956.8570413321920.37650381417031162113126DRYL
2022-04-01 00:00:02FORECAST2022183-10237.2625.0831.17131.035106461020.04890.29893.173.4689FF5.267.2690424.7063172727255.6514374984980.48129315542469162112124DRYL
2022-03-31 20:00:02FORECAST2022183-10237.4725.8531.66131.06334041430.06280.32283.173.4928FF5.4712.4790424.7187372809355.6650564445820.49121309615659162112124DRYL
2022-03-31 16:00:01FORECAST2022183-10237.7526.5332.14131.196020939710.10940.36943.173.5394FF5.7512.7590424.7770910110955.7290641269990.50444708118577163112125DRYL
2022-03-31 12:00:02FORECAST2022183-10237.6627.0932.375131.253069577130.1080.3683.173.538FF5.6612.6690424.8021753158555.7565894732490.50019313437526163112125DRYL
2022-03-31 08:00:02FORECAST2022183-10237.7827.0332.405131.395262641960.12840.39843.173.5684TF5.789.7890424.8646818353455.8252064570490.50586497497638163112125DRYL
2022-03-31 04:00:05FORECAST2022183-10238.0826.6532.365131.58393276710.05210.34213.173.5121FF6.0815.0890424.9475843210455.9162743648420.52003688450529163112125DRYL
2022-03-31 00:00:03FORECAST2022183-10238.2626.4232.34134.362479543360.04640.10643.173.2764FF6.268.2690426.1639003894457.2604383481940.52852903440819163112125DRYL
2022-03-30 20:00:02FORECAST2022183-10237.7426.8232.28133.385483516750.05070.23073.173.4007FF5.7414.7490425.7371960232256.7871617426220.50397443655285163112125DRYL
2022-03-30 16:00:02FORECAST2022183-10237.8226.8632.34133.26582127170.03180.20183.173.3718FF5.8214.8290425.6848605455556.729242543530.50775538168049163112125DRYL
2022-03-30 12:00:02FORECAST2022183-10237.6427.0832.36133.941971261060.03770.21773.173.3877FF5.6414.6490425.9803726059757.0566508253630.49924779284946163112125DRYL
2022-03-30 08:00:02FORECAST2022183-10239.3625.7732.565134.396596935620.11210.37213.173.5421FF7.3619.3690426.1787820818357.2769779979630.58000331499512163112125DRYL
2022-03-30 04:00:06FORECAST2022183-10239.0425.532.27134.282854390930.08730.38733.173.5573TF7.0419.0490426.1291636135557.2218404292460.56512969815444163112125DRYL
2022-03-30 00:00:02FORECAST2022183-10238.4925.6432.065135.638640603690.09690.40693.173.5769TF6.496.4990426.7196729729157.8796763608960.53936075024852163112125DRYL
2022-03-29 20:00:03FORECAST2022183-10239.2225.9832.6136.451574965180.08210.37213.193.5621TF7.2222.2290427.0727705595258.2747521675890.57350885279212163112125DRYL
2022-03-29 16:00:02FORECAST2022183-10239.0125.9232.465136.486941353230.07960.37963.193.5696TF7.0122.0190427.0881153871958.2919505575140.56373021840785163112125DRYL
2022-03-29 12:00:02FORECAST2022183-10233.925.2929.595136.076111277270.07010.38013.193.5701TF1.917.990426.9097787202658.0922225544910.32815703338815162112124DRYL
2022-03-29 08:00:01FORECAST2022183-10234.7226.7830.75135.965152119980.10560.35563.183.5356FF2.7218.7290426.8615806842358.0382997519050.36397599701796162112124DRYL
2022-03-29 04:00:05FORECAST2022183-10239.3827.5333.455135.183293008450.03950.27953.183.4595FF7.3825.3890426.5215741984957.6585909392980.58092936295441163112125DRYL
2022-03-29 00:00:02FORECAST2022183-10239.8225.532.66137.182069577070.03030.25033.183.4303FF7.8217.8290427.3894391478158.630167777680.60118031404691163112125DRYL
2022-03-28 20:00:03FORECAST2022183-10240.9125.4533.18137.194744869480.0320.2523.223.472FF8.9129.9190427.3949286883358.6363381999040.65008468871314163112125DRYL
2022-03-28 16:00:03FORECAST2022183-10240.1225.8132.965137.422797771350.04470.28473.223.5047FF8.1229.1290427.4936658963958.7473755970110.61483676809236163112125DRYL
2022-03-28 12:00:03FORECAST2022183-10241.8725.933.885136.93119144750.04060.28063.223.5006FF9.8726.8790427.280750000258.5080621801090.69121422933092163112125DRYL
2022-03-28 08:00:03FORECAST2022183-10237.2226.832.01136.895158968810.02120.27123.233.5012FF5.2218.2290427.2651337859958.4905284114650.4794047674127162112124DRYL
2022-03-28 04:00:06FORECAST2022183-10244.0525.5634.805136.584241130520.01650.25653.243.4965FF12.0529.0590427.1303248652858.3392712855580.77566120445382164112126DRYL
2022-03-28 00:00:04FORECAST2022183-10244.0325.7734.9137.673439317320.00680.30683.223.5268FF12.0315.0390427.6021170749558.8694541170760.77495087942658164112126DRYL
2022-03-27 20:00:03FORECAST2022183-10244.0725.6934.88139.109340742980.0070.3973.313.707TF12.0730.0790428.2220944712659.5696932534760.77637025731507164112126DRYL
2022-03-27 16:00:03FORECAST2022183-10242.9125.2334.07139.463155570650.02210.45213.313.7621TF10.9124.9190428.374513751859.7424614538670.73320212352816164112126DRYL
2022-03-27 12:00:03FORECAST2022183-10244.2426.7135.475138.678545104240.06970.47973.353.8297TF12.2431.2490428.0363277405759.3594551828240.78234560953536164112126DRYL
2022-03-27 08:00:03FORECAST2022183-10242.8126.534.655138.524266984950.04260.43263.363.7926TF10.8117.8190427.9697508271559.2841960250620.72929323181663164112126DRYL
2022-03-27 04:00:06FORECAST2022183-10242.8826.5234.7139.177039545220.04260.45263.463.9126TF10.8820.8890428.251268919959.6027437897570.73203245338588164112126DRYL
2022-03-27 00:00:04FORECAST2022183-10242.3925.4133.9139.214848161990.02470.38473.443.8247TF10.3916.3990428.2675601646459.6212033610240.71257041711823164112126DRYL
2022-03-26 20:00:03FORECAST2022183-10243.4425.1634.3140.513681154430.00740.40743.533.9374TF11.4421.4490428.8262615619560.2559565877620.75343259351911164112126DRYL
2022-03-26 16:00:03FORECAST2022183-10243.5725.1434.355139.829286070430.00740.28743.423.7074TF11.5720.5790428.5320943332759.9213368088870.75826641759798164112126DRYL
2022-03-26 12:00:04FORECAST2022183-10246.6725.7536.21139.33415779460.0010.3213.363.681TF14.6723.6790428.318958887759.6794614040780.8572888215596165112127DRYL
2022-03-26 08:00:03FORECAST2022183-10245.9328.337.115140.422207882460.00150.41153.473.8815TF13.9316.9390428.7869740487960.211213607170.83657288155517164112126DRYL
2022-03-26 04:00:06FORECAST2022183-10245.9626.2636.11139.939763339810.00150.36153.573.9315TF13.9627.9690428.579614377159.9753298081990.83744883361538164112126DRYL
2022-03-26 00:00:03FORECAST2022183-10244.629.6437.12140.378981662920.03060.20063.573.7706TF12.619.690428.7684053327960.1900721098520.79469116386808164112126DRYL
2022-03-25 20:00:03FORECAST2022183-10248.9928.7938.89140.2031234531400.213.53.71TF16.9936.9990428.6928407816560.1040752795880.91044283074164165112127DRYL
2022-03-25 16:00:03FORECAST2022183-10248.6228.8738.745140.6798874735800.213.553.76TF16.6236.6290428.8976233519860.3372693908430.90312514439796165112127DRYL
2022-03-25 12:00:04FORECAST2022183-10234.3428.5831.46139.638001468460.00240.11243.553.6624FF2.3425.3490428.4497847593659.8278716733880.34720600857807162112124DRYL
2022-03-25 08:00:03FORECAST2022183-1023128.9929.995139.457909948900.113.523.63FF-11590428.3722549996459.7398993623480.21515759838014161112123DRYL
2022-03-25 04:00:07FORECAST2022183-10230.6628.7129.685138.676910202040.00020.11023.543.6502FF-1.3421.6690428.0356223544659.3586575645250.20356632123711161112123DRYL