MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 30, 2022

[ Tuesday, March 29, 2022 | Index | Today | Thursday, March 31, 2022 ]

DAY 181 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/31/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.31°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.84°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.08°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.213
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 16

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.25 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.77 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.02 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 131 in
SWE DAY: 88
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 423.49 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 55.60 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -104

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-03-31 04:00:04OBSERVATION2022181-10430.3099823.8400627.07502131.277624583330.250.254.775.02TF-1.6900216.3099888423.49249818021 55.595089189960.2127629209878617 1112123WETL
2022-03-31 00:00:01FORECAST2022181-10323.523.523.5134.023470913970.00480.00484.524.5248TF-8.5-1.589425.3615559167457.0084321173280.067251746774015161111121.5WETL
2022-03-30 12:00:01FORECAST2022181-10330.6620.5625.61133.63087615580.12440.12444.524.6444TF-1.345.6689425.1894163736556.8184342421860.22334532252883161112123WETL
2022-03-30 08:00:01FORECAST2022181-10331.6124.127.855133.843236474380.19830.19834.524.7183TF-0.396.6189425.2825505147356.9211929769710.25352426862372162112124WETL
2022-03-30 04:00:05FORECAST2022181-10330.7923.8227.305133.798687500450.24270.24274.524.7627TF-1.215.7989425.2630169867456.8996335153070.22735056926623161112123WETL
2022-03-30 00:00:02FORECAST2022181-10432.4623.9928.225135.067404794830.24930.24934.775.0193TF0.465.4688425.1632975782157.4257032179030.2822371704528172112124WETL
2022-03-29 20:00:01FORECAST2022181-10433.6724.0928.88135.941577177470.22560.24564.775.0156TF1.6720.6788425.5464162858357.8494509921180.32562037142377172112124WETL
2022-03-29 16:00:01FORECAST2022181-10433.4324.1328.78136.028678314150.2410.2614.775.031TF1.4320.4388425.5845430385157.8917029004620.31679954336196172112124WETL
2022-03-29 12:00:02FORECAST2022181-10433.8124.2729.04135.518101084440.25130.27134.775.0413TF1.8120.8188425.3609279848757.6441052360240.33081169707998172112124WETL
2022-03-29 08:00:01FORECAST2022181-10434.0424.2929.165135.281662141410.21250.22254.774.9925TF2.0421.0488425.2572776763657.5295113617880.33941093157361172112124WETL
2022-03-29 04:00:05FORECAST2022181-10433.924.0728.985134.97459989350.1940.2044.774.974TF1.921.988425.1225745146257.3807494008060.33416631137754172112124WETL
2022-03-29 00:00:02FORECAST2022181-10434.1324.5729.35137.027307362420.1680.1784.774.948TF2.1314.1388426.0210703955558.3765201559570.34279904283601172112124WETL
2022-03-28 20:00:02FORECAST2022181-10434.225.1829.69137.129871211350.1870.2374.775.007TF2.225.288426.0658411176558.4263539200180.34544302175699172112124WETL
2022-03-28 16:00:02FORECAST2022181-10433.8724.9229.395137.204246514250.20370.25374.775.0237TF1.8724.8788426.0982998043658.4624961656610.33304661831959172112124WETL
2022-03-28 12:00:03FORECAST2022181-10433.7324.9929.36136.705834115760.19080.24084.775.0108TF1.7324.7388425.8806667076758.2203717760470.32784116314652172112124WETL
2022-03-28 08:00:02FORECAST2022181-10433.4825.1529.315136.661502866410.1860.2464.775.016TF1.4820.4888425.8612960039358.1988447245330.31862887015018172112124WETL
2022-03-28 04:00:06FORECAST2022181-10433.8425.1929.515136.535781971390.1730.2434.775.013TF1.8420.8488425.806349927458.1378029557230.33192841068926172112124WETL
2022-03-28 00:00:03FORECAST2022181-10434.0424.929.47137.709796011120.22520.28524.765.0452TF2.047.0488426.3187680511658.7082705840380.33941093157361172112124WETL
2022-03-27 20:00:03FORECAST2022181-10434.0425.7729.905138.996686884830.29860.39864.815.2086TF2.0423.0488426.8787004828659.3347250688210.33941093157361172112124WETL
2022-03-27 16:00:03FORECAST2022181-10433.6825.2729.475139.228029226190.34770.44774.815.2577TF1.6821.6888426.9791647114459.447467623420.32599007686239172112124WETL
2022-03-27 12:00:02FORECAST2022181-10433.6225.0629.34138.365038026680.33030.47034.815.2803TF1.6222.6288426.6040957177159.0270919263180.3237744203332172112124WETL
2022-03-27 08:00:03FORECAST2022181-10434.0624.6529.355138.313579769820.31810.43814.845.2781TF2.0615.0688426.5817051993359.0020427104330.34016273673421172112124WETL
2022-03-27 04:00:05FORECAST2022181-10433.2625.3129.285139.101455171580.34920.51924.895.4092TF1.2613.2688426.9242051536459.3857781848420.31061345031691172113126WETL
2022-03-27 00:00:03FORECAST2022181-10433.3725.8629.615139.22028287050.30610.46614.885.3461TF1.3710.3788426.9758016838559.4436918892840.3146102481955172112124WETL
2022-03-26 20:00:03FORECAST2022181-10433.4725.0929.28140.547786785840.33730.48734.985.4673TF1.4714.4788427.5511635767960.0913697784280.31826264938046172112124WETL
2022-03-26 16:00:03FORECAST2022181-10433.125.3729.235139.884772491990.21980.35984.885.2398TF1.113.188427.2640448503359.7677337078980.30483967817263172112124WETL
2022-03-26 12:00:03FORECAST2022181-10433.324.5928.945139.476909930910.24570.34574.865.2057TF1.313.388427.087179367559.5688000492870.31206428168332172112124WETL
2022-03-26 08:00:02FORECAST2022181-10432.9924.9328.96140.045826735420.27250.42254.925.3425TF0.996.9988427.333833952259.8463200678510.30089807246201172112124WETL
2022-03-26 04:00:05FORECAST2022181-10433.624.9729.285139.545523020740.21770.40774.985.3877TF1.617.688427.1169455619759.6022575594650.32303724782099172112124WETL
2022-03-26 00:00:03FORECAST2022181-10434.1224.9629.54140.852697634820.16170.36174.975.3317TF2.128.1288427.6830431707460.2403103632660.34242195526316172112124WETL
2022-03-25 20:00:03FORECAST2022181-10434.1624.9729.565140.9894222080.19590.34594.955.2959TF2.1619.1688427.7421459230960.3071180077060.34393124376733172112124WETL
2022-03-25 16:00:03FORECAST2022181-10434.2225.0229.62141.198019423220.20060.38064.975.3506TF2.2219.2288427.8322779577960.4090702929630.34619983763691172112124WETL
2022-03-25 12:00:03FORECAST2022181-10434.328.131.2139.832074708090.1040.2944.965.254TF2.321.388427.2412032944859.7420238574490.34923321772946172112124WETL
2022-03-25 08:00:03FORECAST2022181-10434.8528.2331.54139.673318758540.1040.2844.945.224TF2.8511.8588427.1723729455559.6645830112650.37033973754882172112124WETL
2022-03-25 04:00:06FORECAST2022181-10435.6928.8532.27138.907147995070.10480.26484.985.2448TF3.6919.6988426.8398008940859.2910993929820.40332168083594172112124WETL
2022-03-25 00:00:02FORECAST2022181-1043828.7433.370.52464336897130.13230.36235.135.4923TF61588354.79168181830.186139103232150.496918791066311721124216WETM
2022-03-24 20:00:03FORECAST2022181-10439.2428.6533.9450.465743164923250.13230.45235.085.5323TF7.2421.2488354.755308508480.165224860158060.547566715361571731124220WETM
2022-03-24 16:00:03FORECAST2022181-10439.1828.9434.060.589974526140120.14680.48685.325.8068TF7.1812.1888354.832020142590.209341852942960.545127124465661731124220WETM
2022-03-24 12:00:03FORECAST2022181-10436.7528.8332.792.10945932044310.33490.51495.496.0049TF4.7510.7588355.768330911080.750478821558890.445914922034881721134224WETM
2022-03-24 08:00:03FORECAST2022181-10436.2828.8232.551.61626603402010.33490.50495.435.9349TF4.2816.2888355.464819852350.574525714616450.426921580744411721134224WETM
2022-03-24 04:00:07FORECAST2022181-10436.328.4832.39NAN0.32930.49935.475.9693TF4.316.388NANNAN0.427726687621481721135230WETM
2022-03-24 00:00:04FORECAST2022181-10437.2528.6832.9652.20992945903750.46280.59285.416.0028TF5.2540.2588355.830113613430.786359450486980.466256743413791721134224WETM
2022-03-23 20:00:03FORECAST2022181-10434.9327.5831.2552.54146446883530.40790.52795.486.0079TF2.9362.9388356.033874599010.904847441995130.373444340113191721134224WETL
2022-03-23 16:00:04FORECAST2022181-10434.5731.0732.821.45840984418670.31060.46065.566.0206TF2.5758.5788355.367594831940.518271598607860.359541144154251721124216WETM
2022-03-23 12:00:03FORECAST2022181-10434.3930.0532.220.165146211959610.35770.85775.666.5177TT2.3953.3988354.569592693370.058555825109370.352657304362531721134224WETH
2022-03-23 08:00:04FORECAST2022181-10434.2331.0132.620.400073837581710.3450.8355.796.625TT2.2346.2388354.71474856910.141912090706870.346578476126071721134224WETH
2022-03-23 04:00:07FORECAST2022181-10434.2633.5433.9NAN0.05880.55885.686.2388TF2.2650.2688NANNAN0.347715309757991721135230WETM