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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 3, 2022

[ Wednesday, March 2, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, March 4, 2022 ]

DAY 154 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/04/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 0.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 0.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 0.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.000
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -222

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.65 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.53 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.18 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 124 in
SWE DAY: 62
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 401.04 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 49.73 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -130

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-03-04 07:00:04OBSERVATION2022154-1300NAN00.656.537.18TT-32-22262NAN NAN1.0262585944554E-516 11135222.5WETL
2022-03-04 03:00:05OBSERVATION2022154-1300NAN00.656.537.18TT-32-22262NAN NAN1.0262585944554E-516 11135222.5WETL
2022-03-03 11:00:02FORECAST2022154-13026.1223.7324.925123.33365473330.07250.72256.537.2525TT-5.88-195.8862401.4570204109449.5131615456220.16616610292901161113124.5WETL
2022-03-03 07:00:05FORECAST2022154-13028.2123.0525.63123.141824545790.06620.71624.335.0462TF-3.79-193.7962401.3612805064949.4243603836020.23972935530209161113124.5WETL
2022-03-03 03:00:05FORECAST2022154-13028.8122.8625.835123.241449793020.09240.74244.335.0724TF-3.19-193.1962401.4110079695449.4704745850440.26372500031029162113126WETL
2022-03-02 23:00:02FORECAST2022154-13029.9922.6626.325125.614752243430.15720.86724.335.1972TF-2.01-188.0162402.5919176484650.571483990620.31423375720641162113126WETL
2022-03-02 19:00:01FORECAST2022154-13030.0522.7526.4125.615375959360.15580.86584.335.1958TF-1.95-187.9562402.5922270627850.5717739608070.31690935285858162113126WETL
2022-03-02 15:00:01FORECAST2022154-13029.9321.9825.955125.703556084420.1710.8814.335.211TF-2.07-188.0762402.6359667144250.6127728234920.31156787959938162113126WETL
2022-03-02 11:00:02FORECAST2022154-13030.8322.2526.54126.323972583260.19020.90024.335.2302TF-1.17-187.1762402.943432760250.9014151526020.35252148171328162113126WETL
2022-03-02 07:00:05FORECAST2022154-13031.4622.8127.135126.451119531220.14240.82244.335.1524TF-0.54-186.5462403.00638445150.960608492060.38227886489039162113126WETL
2022-03-02 03:00:06FORECAST2022154-13031.624.1627.88126.602131078620.14170.79174.335.1217TF-0.4-188.462403.0811253295551.0309294642910.38899435924141162113126WETL
2022-03-01 23:00:02FORECAST2022154-13030.5223.9627.24130.263087507070.1120.9024.335.232TF-1.48-184.4862404.8843160205852.7414810880280.33819091910757162113126WETL
2022-03-01 19:00:02FORECAST2022154-13030.9423.5227.23130.387767786470.13440.86444.335.1944TF-1.06-189.0662404.9454320762152.7999309637440.3576585308787162113126WETL
2022-03-01 15:00:02FORECAST2022154-13030.5822.9526.765130.602755301920.13630.96634.335.2963TF-1.42-185.4262405.0507696836452.9007465578470.34094713585879162113126WETL
2022-03-01 11:00:03FORECAST2022154-13030.8823.4127.145131.123979177720.20210.99214.335.3221TF-1.12-184.1262405.3059155145953.1453244265440.35485323888747162114128WETL
2022-03-01 07:00:06FORECAST2022154-13031.2523.9127.58131.731340534060.24841.17844.335.5084TF-0.75-187.7562405.6028009325853.4306006912170.37227223120454162114128WETL
2022-03-01 03:00:05FORECAST2022154-13030.8826.628.74131.590301256810.19611.25614.335.5861TF-1.12-190.1262405.5339000885553.3643280825040.35485323888747162114128WETL
2022-02-28 23:00:03FORECAST2022154-13032.8127.0129.911.30752522695580.19511.55515.57.0551TT0.81-182.1962330.079072037110.431586713578690.448214924274351621154240WETL
2022-02-28 19:00:02FORECAST2022154-13033.4827.4430.461.57325536826730.2061.4365.56.936TT1.48-185.5262330.259778002390.519582968665020.481601025377181621144232WETL
2022-02-28 15:00:02FORECAST2022154-13029.927.2928.5951.54306721144290.20761.62765.57.1276TT-2.1-185.162330.239255120490.509581366507770.310238621005081621154240WETL
2022-02-28 11:00:02FORECAST2022154-13029.8626.1628.011.72969271269190.25421.69425.57.1942TT-2.14-185.1462330.366103947640.571431842518650.308470124688141621154240WETL
2022-02-28 07:00:04FORECAST2022154-13034.7127.3131.01NAN0.33861.65866.728.3786TT2.71-182.2962NANNAN0.543058035768691631155262.5WETL
2022-02-28 03:00:05FORECAST2022154-13031.1326.929.015NAN0.22781.83787.59.3378TT-0.87-186.8762NANNAN0.366592138460791621155250WETL
2022-02-27 23:00:02FORECAST2022154-13032.1527.3829.7651.82840019433280.20121.84129.0710.9112TT0.15-150.8562330.43317083660.604164073771650.415680915769371621154240WETL
2022-02-27 19:00:01FORECAST2022154-13032.9525.3529.151.75277400992920.17352.13358.7110.8435TT0.95-151.0562330.38178806250.579084611469890.455168814763741621154240WETL
2022-02-27 15:00:02FORECAST2022154-13033.9324.4929.212.77732228859570.35912.30918.4910.7991TT1.93-150.0762331.077059720930.919507697205660.504111794643961631154250WETL
2022-02-27 11:00:03FORECAST2022154-13032.5923.1627.8755.20107346973830.34552.40558.5110.9155TT0.59-151.4162332.714663274791.73047340815140.437320265434671621154240WETL
2022-02-27 07:00:06FORECAST2022154-13032.7723.9328.35NAN0.15432.29438.5610.8543TT0.77-148.2362NANNAN0.446230922365131621155250WETL
2022-02-27 03:00:06FORECAST2022154-13033.9826.0129.995NAN0.0952.1558.7210.875TT1.98-151.0262NANNAN0.506613494427611631155262.5WETL
2022-02-26 23:00:03FORECAST2022154-13033.2524.0728.663.919034025950.2662.3368.8711.206TT1.25-108.7562331.849711456681.30053031070040.470113629567891621154240WETL
2022-02-26 19:00:03FORECAST2022154-13034.1726.1330.155.93921690743370.28272.33278.6811.0127TT2.17-107.8362333.211389310191.97901471714050.516116744697521631154250WETL
2022-02-26 15:00:02FORECAST2022154-13031.7726.1528.963.66338391254450.29732.10738.2910.3973TT-0.23-109.2362331.676895255991.21505980224350.397193498012161621154240WETL
2022-02-26 11:00:03FORECAST2022154-13031.2223.7327.4754.71558060265170.36952.24958.6210.8695TT-0.78-115.7862332.387447765881.56739980124970.370849546101931621154240WETL
2022-02-26 07:00:06FORECAST2022154-13029.3122.9226.115NAN0.50762.24768.4110.6576TT-2.69-116.6962NANNAN0.284616287745281621155250WETL
2022-02-26 03:00:08FORECAST2022154-13029.3223.2826.3NAN0.50762.02768.0610.0876TT-2.68-116.6862NANNAN0.285042034817871621155250WETL
2022-02-25 23:00:03FORECAST2022154-13034.4625.4229.947.02809548715610.41861.96867.539.4986TT2.46-77.5462333.942440837252.34697936141820.530602251338191631154250WETL
2022-02-25 19:00:04FORECAST2022154-13033.9825.9929.9856.7861509007060.34022.02027.39.3202TT1.98-70.0262333.78017870382.26508266034860.506613494427611631154250WETL
2022-02-25 15:00:03FORECAST2022154-13034.022630.011.4763306889420.34022.27027.269.5302TT2.02-73.9862330.193879896610.487475358192190.508614671713781631154250WETL
2022-02-25 11:00:03FORECAST2022154-13031.6626.8829.273.33953688195080.81133.48136.9110.3913TT-0.34-78.3462331.45781763751.10691560681140.391882739561511621154240WETL
2022-02-25 07:00:07FORECAST2022154-13031.0226.4728.745NAN0.68082.97086.489.4508TT-0.98-79.9862NANNAN0.361410884787481621155250WETL
2022-02-25 03:00:08FORECAST2022154-13031.0326.3828.705NAN0.68083.31086.249.5508TT-0.97-74.9762NANNAN0.361880876057991621155250WETL
2022-02-24 23:00:03FORECAST2022154-13035.0626.2730.6650.598092708545410.39562.69565.878.5656TT3.06-46.9462329.596034737670.197128985142080.56042260872611631154250WETL
2022-02-24 19:00:03FORECAST2022154-13034.0929.4531.770.310934288490830.3332.9035.988.883TT2.09-47.9162329.400267165030.102421837699650.512116179985571631154250WETL
2022-02-24 15:00:04FORECAST2022154-13041.2533.3537.300.31681.48685.436.9168TT9.25-35.7562329.1881295413500.823440244072761641145260WETH
2022-02-24 11:00:03FORECAST2022154-13032.6430.7531.6950.173682953998950.34861.22865.276.4986TT0.64-51.3662329.306646902630.0571949512055370.439792459297581621144232WETL
2022-02-24 07:00:06FORECAST2022154-13033.6933.3533.52NAN0.17220.88225.156.0322TF1.69-47.3162NANNAN0.4921031195641621135230WETM
2022-02-24 03:00:06FORECAST2022154-13033.7333.5333.63NAN0.11930.82935.226.0493TF1.73-48.2762NANNAN0.494104362349291621135230WETM