Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 25, 2022

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DAY 176 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/26/2022 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.13°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.13°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.13°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.796 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -49 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.47 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.47 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 141 in SWE DAY: 83 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 424.54 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 59.92 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -109 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-03-26 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	176	-109	43.12994	33.13004	38.12999	141.13652875	0	0	5.47	5.47	T	F	11.12994	-48.87006	83	424.54302480049	59.918528825366	0.79582171980237	17	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-26 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	176	-108	33.58	33.58	33.58	142.99136266667	0	0	5.44	5.44	T	F	1.58	-59.42	84	426.01225286156	60.916072549372	0.37112305980231	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-03-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	176	-108	44.55	33.22	38.885	142.55894933333	0.0035	0.0035	5.44	5.4435	T	F	12.55	-48.45	84	425.82335970066	60.704930760516	0.84103482747183	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-25 08:00:01	FORECAST	2022	176	-108	37.67	33.28	35.475	142.66795466667	0.0075	0.0075	5.44	5.4475	T	F	5.67	-55.33	84	425.87099657536	60.758144033261	0.5659357270378	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-03-25 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	176	-108	41.73	33.27	37.5	142.14702060492	0.006	0.006	5.44	5.446	T	F	9.73	-51.27	84	425.64322186654	60.503915829009	0.74451997121479	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-25 00:00:01	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	42.76	32.66	37.71	0	0.0061	0.0061	5.47	5.4761	T	F	10.76	-61.24	83	349.7980644861	0	0.78289527169512	17	4	1	1	1	5	2	15	WET	M
2022-03-24 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	43.3	33.66	38.48	0	0.0011	0.0011	5.47	5.4711	T	F	11.3	-50.7	83	349.7980644861	0	0.80160712919742	17	4	1	1	1	5	2	15	WET	M
2022-03-24 16:00:01	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	38.65	33.75	36.2	0	0.0044	0.0044	5.47	5.4744	T	F	6.65	-55.35	83	349.7980644861	0	0.61203334592884	17	3	1	1	1	5	2	12.5	WET	M
2022-03-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	42.96	32.87	37.915	0	0.0042	0.0042	5.47	5.4742	T	F	10.96	-51.04	83	349.7980644861	0	0.78994139183891	17	4	1	1	1	5	2	15	WET	M
2022-03-24 08:00:02	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	43.74	34.32	39.03	0	0.0047	0.0147	5.47	5.4847	T	F	11.74	-49.26	83	349.7980644861	0	0.81611099400405	17	4	1	1	1	5	2	15	WET	M
2022-03-24 04:00:05	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	43.31	34.78	39.045	NAN	0.0072	0.0072	5.47	5.4772	T	F	11.31	-49.69	83	NAN	NAN	0.80194422601603	17	4	1	1	1	5	2	15	WET	M
2022-03-24 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	43.22	33.91	38.565	0	0.0073	0.0073	5.47	5.4773	T	F	11.22	-23.78	83	349.7980644861	0	0.79889793776233	17	4	1	1	1	5	2	15	WET	M
2022-03-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	43.58	33.02	38.3	0	0	0.12	5.47	5.59	T	F	11.58	-6.42	83	349.7980644861	0	0.810914859263	17	4	1	1	2	5	2	30	WET	M
2022-03-23 16:00:02	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	43.76	34.6	39.18	0	0.0344	0.1544	5.47	5.6244	T	F	11.76	-6.24	83	349.7980644861	0	0.81675421403815	17	4	1	1	2	5	2	30	WET	M
2022-03-23 12:00:02	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	44.03	34.29	39.16	0	0.036	0.156	5.47	5.626	T	F	12.03	-5.97	83	349.7980644861	0	0.82530022949012	17	4	1	1	2	5	2	30	WET	M
2022-03-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	43.71	34.2	38.955	0	0.0263	0.1663	5.47	5.6363	T	F	11.71	-7.29	83	349.7980644861	0	0.81514353722901	17	4	1	1	2	5	2	30	WET	M
2022-03-23 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	39.57	33.86	36.715	NAN	0.0092	0.1692	5.47	5.6392	T	F	7.57	-10.43	83	NAN	NAN	0.65392898182331	17	3	1	1	2	5	2	25	WET	M
2022-03-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	44.79	33.54	39.165	150.25017833677	0.0271	0.1971	5.47	5.6671	T	F	12.79	37.79	83	428.50991692444	64.383691436969	0.84797436412399	17	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-03-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	45.38	33.27	39.325	151.27852443261	0.024	0.204	5.47	5.674	T	F	13.38	43.38	83	428.9517863337	64.891193289293	0.86416928880804	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-22 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	46.97	33.66	40.315	151.24219959329	0.0591	0.2691	5.47	5.7391	T	F	14.97	46.97	83	428.93619759211	64.873254009014	0.90180596036474	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-22 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	48.67	32.28	40.475	150.2500405618	0.0318	0.2318	5.47	5.7018	T	F	16.67	48.67	83	428.50985764664	64.383623492539	0.93294387882361	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-22 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	42.43	32.51	37.47	150.30058074317	0.0175	0.1875	5.49	5.6775	T	F	10.43	43.43	83	428.53160121261	64.408548529057	0.7709761361369	17	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-03-22 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	48.49	33.99	41.24	150.0791280225	0.0255	0.2355	5.51	5.7455	T	F	16.49	49.49	83	428.43630639846	64.299347277463	0.93006044356052	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	47.04	33.34	40.19	145.01457317164	0.0209	0.2509	4.69	4.9409	T	F	15.04	51.04	83	426.24224875408	61.811337770794	0.90326739240977	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	47.14	32.97	40.055	145.03979224463	0.0211	0.2711	4.92	5.1911	T	F	15.14	52.14	83	426.25324418729	61.823681980525	0.90532744109823	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-21 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	46.98	34.44	40.71	144.94330575737	0.0037	0.1937	4.91	5.1037	T	F	14.98	53.98	83	426.21117258714	61.776456305504	0.90201571772833	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	44.04	31.9	37.97	145.6503077872	0.0531	0.2931	4.9	5.1931	T	F	12.04	43.04	83	426.51921216558	62.122654529072	0.82561182308239	17	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-03-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	46.85	31.6	39.225	145.7714437848	0.0536	0.2536	5.16	5.4136	T	F	14.85	50.85	83	426.57193542614	62.182006905145	0.89926325682679	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-21 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	47.37	30.37	38.87	146.97731268056	0.0531	0.2831	5.6	5.8831	T	F	15.37	51.37	83	427.09589452499	62.773406834185	0.90994290650948	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-21 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	46.29	33.38	39.835	143.51962829567	0.0011	0.1711	5.46	5.6311	T	F	14.29	51.29	83	425.58919772499	61.080403464143	0.88676372399395	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-20 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	44.1	32.62	38.36	142.33059506693	0.0011	0.1811	5.64	5.8211	T	F	12.1	51.1	83	425.06800758168	60.500182463014	0.82747398153569	17	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-03-20 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	45.41	31.47	38.44	142.53319767491	0.0011	0.2411	5.59	5.8311	T	F	13.41	56.41	83	425.15692588008	60.598976159321	0.86496003619741	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	46.2	29.42	37.81	143.69150640791	0	0.25	5.61	5.86	T	F	14.2	49.2	83	425.66440710345	61.164359880926	0.88465621403226	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	45.91	29.83	37.87	142.99865910832	0	0.19	5.82	6.01	T	F	13.91	48.91	83	425.36103450713	60.826057571448	0.87767679662786	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-20 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	45.97	29.87	37.92	144.20496251965	0	0.11	5.84	5.95	T	F	13.97	53.97	83	425.88888665222	61.415290937219	0.87914452873018	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-20 00:00:04	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	38.81	29.64	34.225	144.37487631295	0.2379	0.3279	5.45	5.7779	T	F	6.81	34.81	83	425.96310736927	61.498370940319	0.61942985496661	17	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-03-19 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	37.72	28.91	33.315	143.62105254885	0.2392	0.3192	5.63	5.9492	T	F	5.72	45.72	83	425.63358230349	61.129943090564	0.56831520261652	17	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-03-19 16:00:04	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	37.82	28.92	33.37	143.00468701068	0.2392	0.3092	5.37	5.6792	T	F	5.82	46.82	83	425.36367620892	60.828999381966	0.57306664181784	17	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-03-19 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	46.76	32.83	39.795	144.13658741308	0.0008	0.0708	5.37	5.4408	T	F	14.76	53.76	83	425.85901041131	61.381864479798	0.89732505841126	17	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-03-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	46.59	32.03	39.31	144.91462269716	0.0024	0.0424	5.34	5.3824	T	F	14.59	51.59	83	426.1986637466	61.76241855087	0.89359058497828	17	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-03-19 04:00:06	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	48.23	33.66	40.945	145.24479572992	0.0005	0.1005	5.63	5.7305	T	F	16.23	59.23	83	426.34259890665	61.924043689159	0.9257288614633	17	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-03-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	42.38	30.7	36.54	145.86540759922	0.0037	0.0537	5.57	5.6237	T	F	10.38	56.38	83	426.6128210886	62.22805303514	0.76913877088512	17	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	40.9	29.71	35.305	145.75458427051	0.0229	0.0629	5.66	5.7229	T	F	8.9	65.9	83	426.56459845885	62.173745712887	0.71120080709482	17	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2022-03-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	40.01	31.49	35.75	145.70162277303	0.0023	0.0423	5.79	5.8323	T	F	8.01	66.01	83	426.54154849275	62.147795795514	0.67335420642952	17	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-03-18 12:00:04	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	35.3	30	32.65	145.93516447204	0.0497	0.0897	5.66	5.7497	T	F	3.3	58.3	83	426.6431674833	62.262240817549	0.4519449910884	17	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-03-18 08:00:03	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	31.35	29.81	30.58	145.83027927276	0.038	0.058	5.65	5.708	T	F	-0.65	56.35	83	426.59753714562	62.210837979016	0.27467394647353	17	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2022-03-18 04:00:07	FORECAST	2022	176	-109	34.16	33.29	33.725	146.31361262438	0.0201	0.0501	5.55	5.6001	T	F	2.16	56.16	83	426.80771043937	62.447778010325	0.39793482266369	17	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L