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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, March 19, 2022

[ Friday, March 18, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, March 20, 2022 ]

DAY 170 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/20/2022 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.91°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.11°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.181
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 17 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -30

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.51 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.70 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 145 in
SWE DAY: 77
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 422.50 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 61.47 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -115

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-03-20 04:00:05OBSERVATION2022170-11529.9100218.3099224.10997145.495115833330.509999999999990.699999999999994.35TF-2.08998-30.0899877422.49771665277 61.4713542237140.1807128566466617 1113124.5WETL
2022-03-20 00:00:02FORECAST2022170-11419.2419.2419.24145.017018185360.0030.1933.94.093TF-12.76-44.7678422.9506565846161.3350430574380.020007357465957161112123WETL
2022-03-19 12:00:02FORECAST2022170-11429.5919.9724.78144.921920814430.19980.38983.94.2898TF-2.41-34.4178422.9083929350661.2886966326940.17187153819039161112123WETL
2022-03-19 08:00:01FORECAST2022170-11431.2620.0725.665145.617977577070.38980.57983.94.4798TF-0.74-32.7478423.2175019969961.6280767160210.22105215278365161113124.5WETL
2022-03-19 04:00:04FORECAST2022170-11431.1220.1525.635145.708228968580.49860.68863.94.5886TF-0.88-32.8878423.2575413673761.6721067502340.21664408288757161113124.5WETL
2022-03-19 00:00:02FORECAST2022170-11531.0520.2425.645146.327293296080.60170.73174.35.0317TF-0.95-32.9577422.8680782933661.8771413179820.21445921783296171113124.5WETL
2022-03-18 20:00:01FORECAST2022170-11530.5420.3725.455146.31882877470.60950.76954.35.0695TF-1.46-26.4677422.8643150868461.8730113141210.19893120561465171113124.5WETL
2022-03-18 16:00:01FORECAST2022170-11533.0620.4626.76146.308344416130.60280.76284.35.0628TF1.06-23.9477422.8596537770961.8678958645020.28207930225311172113126WETL
2022-03-18 12:00:02FORECAST2022170-11530.9720.4625.715146.390369071320.60590.76594.35.0659TF-1.03-26.0377422.8961183434761.9079188431270.21197795674554171113124.5WETL
2022-03-18 08:00:02FORECAST2022170-11530.7520.3425.545146.243459097040.55880.70884.35.0088TF-1.25-26.2577422.83080322661.8362392765520.2052415056387171113124.5WETL
2022-03-18 04:00:05FORECAST2022170-11530.2720.4625.365147.061347177410.63440.84444.35.1444TF-1.73-26.7377423.1941207145562.2354975098410.1909916701873171113124.5WETL
2022-03-18 00:00:01FORECAST2022170-11530.3420.6225.48149.830629756120.60720.73724.35.0372TF-1.66-30.6677424.4186861502463.5909190261550.19303121562605171113124.5WETL
2022-03-17 20:00:02FORECAST2022170-11530.2420.4525.345150.00453291450.60590.94594.35.2459TF-1.76-23.7677424.4952983575863.676218954530.1901216316059171113124.5WETL
2022-03-17 16:00:02FORECAST2022170-11530.4520.4125.43148.969089763260.51090.84094.35.1409TF-1.55-23.5577424.0386393031163.1686501214370.19626290437667171113124.5WETL
2022-03-17 12:00:03FORECAST2022170-11530.6920.3825.535149.764497267410.58950.98954.35.2895TF-1.31-23.3177424.38954291563.5584865402110.20342656148352171113124.5WETL
2022-03-17 08:00:02FORECAST2022170-11530.7219.9525.335149.981615231320.62441.04444.35.3444TF-1.28-24.2877424.4852040173963.6649765403230.20433283628836171114126WETL
2022-03-17 04:00:06FORECAST2022170-11531.0220.4425.73149.98459549050.65861.17864.35.4786TF-0.98-23.9877424.4865167378663.66643850410.21352677569742171114126WETL
2022-03-17 00:00:02FORECAST2022170-11530.9320.1725.55146.808840325620.58921.05924.125.1792TF-1.07-32.0777423.0820341178662.1121827914460.21074363694901171114126WETL
2022-03-16 20:00:02FORECAST2022170-11530.620.4225.51147.03049033480.67241.13244.135.2624TF-1.4-23.477423.1804273635162.2204257353470.20072213318768171114126WETL
2022-03-16 16:00:02FORECAST2022170-11530.4520.1425.295146.942354082930.60781.03784.135.1678TF-1.55-23.5577423.1413091992862.1773800834750.19626290437667171114126WETL
2022-03-16 12:00:02FORECAST2022170-11530.5920.1225.355147.335780298030.63051.05054.135.1805TF-1.41-23.4177423.3158587825362.3695723662570.20042297638317171114126WETL
2022-03-16 08:00:02FORECAST2022170-11530.5220.2925.405148.243239605010.72711.26714.155.4171TF-1.48-28.4877423.7178025048162.8132997216280.19833637198789171114126WETL
2022-03-16 04:00:05FORECAST2022170-11531.320.7226.01148.491429262490.68941.17944.225.3994TF-0.7-22.777423.8275726601762.9347620251620.22232094823036171114126WETL
2022-03-16 00:00:02FORECAST2022170-11531.8820.5726.225139.555333050460.63021.14023.24.3402TF-0.12-28.1277419.8313507178458.5897039744550.2411781969382171114126WETL
2022-03-15 20:00:03FORECAST2022170-11530.8120.3625.585137.563916759880.62791.05793.674.7279TF-1.19-25.1977418.9283625219357.6294263903210.20706601604199171114126WETL
2022-03-15 16:00:03FORECAST2022170-11530.9820.5725.775137.815256559170.58110.99113.684.6711TF-1.02-26.0277419.0425821054157.7504609620760.21228719480693171114126WETL
2022-03-15 12:00:02FORECAST2022170-11530.4920.5425.515139.632475700010.50030.95033.694.6403TF-1.51-30.5177419.8662384857458.6269623426130.19744613253574171113124.5WETL
2022-03-15 08:00:03FORECAST2022170-11531.7521.226.475140.056385613050.43490.84493.944.7849TF-0.25-27.2577420.0578298230158.8317813934730.23687758467229171113124.5WETL
2022-03-15 04:00:07FORECAST2022170-11530.8720.6525.76140.986706725290.56540.97544.115.0854TF-1.13-22.1377420.4775775194459.2817489062960.20890006825926171113124.5WETL
2022-03-15 00:00:03FORECAST2022170-11531.5423.7527.645135.933875749130.64661.05663.084.1366TF-0.46-23.4677418.185829409756.8456205750250.23002025261799171114126WETL
2022-03-14 20:00:02FORECAST2022170-11532.1219.0425.58135.953357448360.66591.01594.025.0359TF0.12-20.8877418.1947220787256.8549765337860.24922788316479172114128WETL
2022-03-14 16:00:03FORECAST2022170-11532.0918.9425.515136.073364500640.57230.95234.225.1723TF0.090000000000003-16.9177418.2494911187456.9126154572060.2482139317835171113124.5WETL
2022-03-14 12:00:03FORECAST2022170-11531.822.9327.365136.717836068930.55721.01724.225.2372TF-0.2-14.277418.5433308503257.2223384949380.23852666628424171114126WETL
2022-03-14 08:00:03FORECAST2022170-11531.9421.8926.915140.273054114990.56281.08284.165.2428TF-0.059999999999999-14.0677420.155676199658.9365199042660.2431772949332171114126WETL
2022-03-14 04:00:07FORECAST2022170-11532.1721.8527.01138.776570712620.56280.99284.415.4028TF0.17-15.8377419.4787723024858.2138255068770.25092267738278172114128WETL
2022-03-14 00:00:03FORECAST2022170-11535.7823.5729.675139.909969557090.58350.92354.545.4635TF3.78-7.2277419.9916785922458.7610229660710.38719750100371172113126WETL
2022-03-13 20:00:02FORECAST2022170-11539.0324.7531.89137.715248854360.46490.66494.735.3949TF7.03-1.9777418.9971430500357.7022958244020.52388912004783173113127.5WETL
2022-03-13 16:00:02FORECAST2022170-11538.7424.8531.795138.054557144580.46490.74494.715.4549TF6.74-3.2677419.1512628121357.8657419641190.51156542381549173113127.5WETL
2022-03-13 12:00:03FORECAST2022170-11533.6122.3627.985143.497783374620.95711.23714.735.9671TF1.61-12.3977421.6056004617460.4994691245860.30222062570646172114128WETL
2022-03-13 08:00:04FORECAST2022170-11536.6924.330.495143.838614390470.91341.12344.956.0734TF4.69-13.3177421.7581543806160.6651085339880.42481237894797172114128WETL
2022-03-13 04:00:06FORECAST2022170-11537.6724.2330.95142.659029395920.92651.16654.896.0565TF5.67-1.3377421.229616321360.0922082172120.46609102405126172114128WETL
2022-03-12 23:00:03FORECAST2022170-11535.7622.0728.915144.705820266221.53322.01325.267.2732TT3.76-3.2477422.1457155413161.0869420392780.386381202626131721151210WETL
2022-03-12 19:00:03FORECAST2022170-11538.1925.5131.85141.559289601871.44731.97735.317.2873TT6.196.1977420.7354261357959.5590080341230.488172213044371721151210WETL
2022-03-12 15:00:04FORECAST2022170-11536.1831.3133.745145.730908007391.4061.9665.547.506TT4.18-1.8277422.6027357547761.5862804079520.403623681841491721151210WETL
2022-03-12 11:00:03FORECAST2022170-11535.4831.9633.72147.934509284950.09861.75865.597.3486TT3.48-6.5277423.5811596088662.6622709890870.375007311055061721151210WETL
2022-03-12 07:00:07FORECAST2022170-11536.5333.0534.79147.554387756960.0761.4565.867.316TT4.53-11.4777423.4127719784162.4764123377530.41813845972274172114128WETL
2022-03-12 03:00:08FORECAST2022170-11536.5333.134.815149.413385366960.04941.42946.277.6994TT4.53-11.4777424.2347330643963.3863476574010.41813845972274172114128WETL