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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 8, 2022

[ Monday, February 7, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 9, 2022 ]

DAY 131 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/09/2022 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.64°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.27°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.615
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 153

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.34 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.39 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 107 in
SWE DAY: 39
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 374.50 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 40.12 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -153

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 2.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-02-09 07:00:05OBSERVATION2022131-15336.6400423.930.27002107.1175679166700.052.342.39FF4.64004152.6400439374.50062934602 40.1155965988070.6148542234512516 3111122.5DRYL
2022-02-09 03:00:04OBSERVATION2022131-15336.6400423.930.27002107.1175679166700.052.342.39FF4.64004152.6400439374.50062934602 40.1155965988070.6148542234512516 3111122.5DRYL
2022-02-08 11:00:02FORECAST2022131-15340.8232.1236.47107.687634666670.0030.0532.342.393FF8.82156.8239374.8238707527740.363896057970.77525293225779164111123DRYL
2022-02-08 07:00:05FORECAST2022131-15339.5526.4633.005108.113079774060.00540.05542.342.3954FF7.55155.5539375.0648034350340.5494110142130.73078419272875164111123DRYL
2022-02-08 03:00:04FORECAST2022131-15340.327.333.8108.142905416670.01530.06532.342.4053FF8.3156.339375.0816841510540.5624230926720.75756591884506164111123DRYL
2022-02-07 23:00:01FORECAST2022131-15339.428.9334.165108.645760.01090.03092.342.3709FF7.4146.439375.3660973158340.7819349211130.72525535005251164111123DRYL
2022-02-07 19:00:02FORECAST2022131-15341.1629.3935.275108.528554666670.00490.02492.342.3649FF9.16148.1639375.2998387666740.730749067980.78641103475512164111123DRYL
2022-02-07 15:00:01FORECAST2022131-15341.4129.6935.55108.532654666670.02040.04042.342.3804FF9.41148.4139375.3021569126840.7325393918590.79440592264447164111123DRYL
2022-02-07 11:00:02FORECAST2022131-15341.4229.8735.645108.474344286750.02010.04012.342.3801FF9.42148.4239375.2691858685140.707078868110.79472198622004164111123DRYL
2022-02-07 07:00:04FORECAST2022131-15341.129.3435.22108.812227697950.03660.06662.342.4066FF9.1146.139375.4601709804540.8546576162360.78446570053487164111123DRYL
2022-02-07 03:00:07FORECAST2022131-15341.3129.6435.475108.779958906360.03630.08632.342.4263FF9.31147.3139375.4419384574740.8405586371260.79122946123719164111123DRYL
2022-02-06 23:00:02FORECAST2022131-15341.7129.1535.43110.393670347690.00670.06672.342.4067FF9.71152.7139376.3518894402441.5468664175960.80376195550268164111123DRYL
2022-02-06 19:00:02FORECAST2022131-15341.2529.3335.29110.34324188560.00470.06472.342.4047FF9.25152.2539376.3235099032841.5247560804940.7893098086845164111123DRYL
2022-02-06 15:00:02FORECAST2022131-15341.0629.8635.46110.247707446690.01310.07312.342.4131FF9.06152.0639376.2697361876841.4828757962620.78316313285159164111123DRYL
2022-02-06 11:00:03FORECAST2022131-15340.9229.8735.395109.348104566620.01350.07352.342.4135FF8.92152.9239375.7627339323641.0889427222740.77856852982831164111123DRYL
2022-02-06 07:00:06FORECAST2022131-15340.7929.2335.01109.427591727170.00230.05232.342.3923FF8.79152.7939375.8075783389741.1237182504520.77425280014667164111123DRYL
2022-02-06 03:00:06FORECAST2022131-15340.8429.134.97109.44514097130.00230.05232.342.3923FF8.84149.8439375.8174779058241.131396848880.77591829114652164111123DRYL
2022-02-05 23:00:03FORECAST2022131-15341.6629.9135.785108.109057918840.00080.07082.22.2708FF9.66155.6639375.0625270477240.5476564597870.802220759536164111123DRYL
2022-02-05 19:00:03FORECAST2022131-15339.3129.1934.25108.310686940860.00760.09762.22.2976FF7.31153.3139375.1766213036640.6356375775510.72191141762415164112126DRYL
2022-02-05 15:00:03FORECAST2022131-15341.6628.4735.065108.186008957950.00020.05022.22.2502FF9.66156.6639375.1060776322240.5812294748990.802220759536164111123DRYL
2022-02-05 11:00:03FORECAST2022131-15341.3928.4234.905107.882581789310.00020.05022.22.2502FF9.39156.3939374.9343030551740.4488806149680.79377293124701164111123DRYL
2022-02-05 07:00:10FORECAST2022131-15337.329.633.45108.421817558200.022.22.22FF5.3151.339375.2394809533840.6841465445590.6425521185663163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-05 03:00:06FORECAST2022131-15342.629.0135.805108.206853942210.00060.03062.212.2406FF10.6157.639375.1178734248940.5903249407980.8299658792806164111123DRYL
2022-02-04 23:00:03FORECAST2022131-15341.2427.5334.385106.973873274490.00060.05062.142.1906FF9.24158.2439374.4190771810240.0530589139150.78898886479547164111123DRYL
2022-02-04 19:00:04FORECAST2022131-15340.7426.7433.74107.1551454902300.032.142.17FF8.74155.7439374.5219511364240.1319541633090.77258034169718164111123DRYL
2022-02-04 15:00:02FORECAST2022131-15340.7726.3433.555107.3323166008900.082.142.22FF8.77154.7739374.6224519093340.2090956141340.77358465161344164111123DRYL
2022-02-04 11:00:03FORECAST2022131-15339.2225.9132.565109.078730605690.00120.13122.152.2812FF7.22154.2239375.6106934165940.9711376398040.71854777772544164112126DRYL
2022-02-04 07:00:06FORECAST2022131-15339.625.9732.785109.444860428510.00080.09082.232.3208FF7.6153.639375.8173196544941.1312740962020.73261467426265164112126DRYL
2022-02-04 03:00:08FORECAST2022131-15335.4926.0530.77109.738037162960.00080.10082.262.3608FF3.49145.4939375.9826361603341.259596499590.56524102885264163112125DRYL
2022-02-03 23:00:03FORECAST2022131-15341.0727.4334.25108.207763628410.00210.05211.81.8521FF9.07160.0739375.1183881853440.5907218814290.78348919995279164111123DRYL
2022-02-03 19:00:02FORECAST2022131-15336.6825.831.24108.551494371620.00210.05211.81.8521FF4.68149.6839375.3128085991540.7407662302490.61654971539248163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-03 15:00:02FORECAST2022131-15340.8125.8633.335108.404777667070.00210.05211.781.8321FF8.81154.8139375.2298437028840.676707780660.77491983388212164111123DRYL
2022-02-03 11:00:04FORECAST2022131-15341.2226.7333.975108.8378487740300.111.81.91FF9.22154.2239375.474646344840.8658527773590.78834611958661164112126DRYL
2022-02-03 07:00:08FORECAST2022131-15340.5628.4734.515109.4538234719700.11.932.03FF8.56148.5639375.8223755601941.135195951380.76650215353551164112126DRYL
2022-02-03 03:00:08FORECAST2022131-15340.5628.4834.52109.8163012299100.12.082.18FF8.56153.5639376.0267468905541.2938665070360.76650215353551164112126DRYL
2022-02-02 23:00:03FORECAST2022131-15338.8827.9333.405110.8429678767900.072.462.53FF6.88157.8839376.604579413341.7439692981590.70566674339141164111123DRYL
2022-02-02 19:00:03FORECAST2022131-15338.8827.9233.4110.7652991842300.092.422.51FF6.88153.8839376.5609182827441.7098827746740.70566674339141164111123DRYL
2022-02-02 15:00:04FORECAST2022131-15338.9927.733.345110.7593099226300.072.452.52FF6.99156.9939376.5575510866641.7072545045160.70986381246376164111123DRYL
2022-02-02 11:00:02FORECAST2022131-15335.2327.5631.395111.963955522950.01540.03542.432.4654FF3.23155.2339377.2337795835642.2365861190490.55385039604026163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-02 07:00:05FORECAST2022131-15335.1927.6731.43108.494935592310.01540.03542.332.3654FF3.19157.1939375.2808295821840.7160694345470.55209379728865163111122.5DRYL
2022-02-02 03:00:07FORECAST2022131-15338.8528.6633.755109.020212787330.01250.02252.262.2825FF6.85153.8539375.5776509324440.9455554228190.70451724600988164111123DRYL
2022-02-01 23:00:03FORECAST2022131-15340.5629.334.93107.39466363547002.252.25FF8.56163.5639374.6578076700140.2362492331220.76650215353551164111123DRYL
2022-02-01 19:00:04FORECAST2022131-15340.6128.6434.625107.08467992706002.182.18FF8.61164.6139374.4819667898440.1012815521440.76819950490086164111123DRYL
2022-02-01 15:00:04FORECAST2022131-15340.5528.5934.57107.17311995413002.262.26FF8.55167.5539374.5321492593340.1397789592480.76616185930857164111123DRYL
2022-02-01 11:00:03FORECAST2022131-15331.927.3129.605108.699207574310.36250.39252.322.7125FF-0.1160.939375.3963057644340.8052809629160.40732508583974162112124DRYL
2022-02-01 07:00:07FORECAST2022131-15332.6630.6131.635108.132456674010.14380.17382.242.4138FF0.66153.6639375.0757705176340.5578645049710.44037193500844162112124DRYL
2022-02-01 03:00:06FORECAST2022131-15332.6531.9332.29107.219105375380.02530.05532.152.2053FF0.65159.6539374.5582377640540.1597991640390.43993386814039162111122DRYL