Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, February 19, 2022

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DAY 142 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/20/2022 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.67°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.67°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.17°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.306 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -2 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 119 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.67 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.74 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.04 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.78 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 110 in SWE DAY: 50 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 385.32 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 42.46 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -142 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-02-20 07:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	142	-142	29.67008	24.67004	27.17006	110.20155125	0.66999999999996	0.73999999999996	2.04	2.78	F	F	-2.32992	118.67008	50	385.31800944838	42.462642365774	0.30637606368066	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-20 03:00:05	OBSERVATION	2022	142	-142	29.67008	24.67004	27.17006	110.20155125	0.66999999999996	0.73999999999996	2.04	2.78	F	F	-2.32992	118.67008	50	385.31800944838	42.462642365774	0.30637606368066	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-19 11:00:01	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	31.65	26.64	29.145	112.0885331571	0.6417	0.7117	2.04	2.7517	F	F	-0.35	120.65	50	386.33446306463	43.303663272951	0.39742740574243	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-19 07:00:04	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	29.01	26.46	27.735	112.39721341618	0.5834	0.6534	2.04	2.6934	F	F	-2.99	118.01	50	386.50027555974	43.441553957501	0.27819479911112	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-19 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	31.59	26.53	29.06	112.70602519137	0.66	0.73	2.04	2.77	F	F	-0.41	120.59	50	386.66602866379	43.579591167227	0.39455346972403	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-18 23:00:01	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	31.54	26.5	29.02	113.11557257947	0.62	0.69	2.04	2.73	F	F	-0.46	117.54	50	386.88565062901	43.762791893683	0.39216289101609	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-18 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	32.16	26.27	29.215	113.61281426353	0.6415	0.7115	2.04	2.7515	F	F	0.16	118.16	50	387.15199223103	43.9854273851	0.42206582040119	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-18 15:00:01	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	32.57	26.57	29.57	113.72480418999	0.6843	0.7543	2.04	2.7943	F	F	0.57	118.57	50	387.21193190645	44.035601136088	0.44210172544939	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-18 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	32.68	26.61	29.645	113.3456425886	0.6564	0.7264	2.04	2.7664	F	F	0.68	118.68	50	387.00892671175	43.865775485668	0.44750472790454	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-18 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	32.71	26.55	29.63	113.16132711796	0.6602	0.7302	2.04	2.7702	F	F	0.71	118.71	50	386.91017255905	43.783268602219	0.44898000942441	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-18 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	32.74	26.98	29.86	113.06598325081	0.566	0.636	2.04	2.676	F	F	0.74	117.74	50	386.85907024285	43.740601156501	0.45045599662933	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-17 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	32.79	27.03	29.91	114.33813151222	0.6051	0.6251	2.04	2.6651	F	F	0.79	123.79	50	387.53989708114	44.310587718698	0.45291748862367	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-17 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	32.06	27.18	29.62	114.92036607627	0.7356	0.7556	2.04	2.7956	F	F	0.060000000000002	122.06	50	387.85076362194	44.571951738395	0.41720740947557	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-17 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	32.45	27.14	29.795	115.15239569629	0.7833	0.8033	2.04	2.8433	F	F	0.45	122.45	50	387.97452076693	44.676195535434	0.43621983403722	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-17 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	32.06	26.47	29.265	115.35830943825	0.8246	0.8446	2.04	2.8846	F	F	0.060000000000002	121.06	50	388.08428747333	44.768747322472	0.41720740947557	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-17 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	31.52	26.54	29.03	114.78195968425	0.7532	0.7832	2.04	2.8232	F	F	-0.48	120.52	50	387.77690736187	44.509793347295	0.39120779215792	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-17 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	32.17	26.88	29.525	114.84224169077	0.766	0.796	2.04	2.836	F	F	0.17	120.17	50	387.80907816863	44.536863884916	0.42255232721789	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-16 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	31.9	27.43	29.665	111.34915146125	0.7882	0.7982	1.88	2.6782	F	F	-0.1	122.9	50	385.93676341455	42.97373112391	0.40946047149231	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-16 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	32.38	27.8	30.09	111.52045558027	0.8217	0.8317	1.88	2.7117	F	F	0.38	124.38	50	386.02897119851	43.050126735239	0.43279514660567	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-16 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	33.07	28.03	30.55	110.57740942036	0.6221	0.6221	1.88	2.5021	F	F	1.07	124.07	50	385.52086032633	42.629898012393	0.46673263529046	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-16 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	32.93	28.06	30.495	109.87471395267	0.4682	0.4682	1.88	2.3482	F	F	0.93	124.93	50	385.14145767775	42.317307493657	0.45981899792358	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-02-16 07:00:04	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	30.18	27.94	29.06	110.11971797725	0.4569	0.4569	1.89	2.3469	F	F	-1.82	126.18	50	385.27381830459	42.426244215721	0.32897117089431	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-02-16 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	33.63	28.27	30.95	109.76289254991	0.3708	0.3808	1.9	2.2808	F	F	1.63	128.63	50	385.08102006024	42.267606627881	0.49446682092897	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-02-15 23:00:01	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	33.83	28.13	30.98	107.17747278449	0.3287	0.3387	1.55	1.8887	F	F	1.83	132.83	50	383.67884603572	41.121729078976	0.50438536137889	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-15 19:00:01	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	32.96	27.92	30.44	108.24590949893	0.538	0.548	1.55	2.098	F	F	0.96	130.96	50	384.25941752805	41.594510133852	0.46129954123943	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-15 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	33.81	28.27	31.04	107.88196554999	0.4232	0.4432	1.56	2.0032	F	F	1.81	132.81	50	384.06183309588	41.433345447117	0.50339352815598	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-15 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	33.69	27.89	30.79	108.09903402486	0.4389	0.4789	1.56	2.0389	F	F	1.69	130.69	50	384.17970111228	41.529454582197	0.49744230289403	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-02-15 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	29.58	27.36	28.47	108.7038658711	0.5025	0.5225	1.57	2.0925	F	F	-2.42	125.58	50	384.50778173817	41.797482332461	0.30245670378447	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-15 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	32.75	27.37	30.06	108.95302820453	0.5736	0.5936	1.56	2.1536	F	F	0.75	130.75	50	384.64278904219	41.907996643184	0.45094814569316	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-14 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	33.41	27.71	30.56	106.60222192	0.5316	0.5416	1.51	2.0516	F	F	1.41	127.41	50	383.36561075541	40.867625914242	0.48356061196603	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-14 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	33.59	27.26	30.425	105.67747827898	0.418	0.428	1.49	1.918	F	F	1.59	129.59	50	382.86110963585	40.45979659741	0.49248332707539	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-02-14 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	33.26	27.58	30.42	105.84715882499	0.418	0.438	1.49	1.928	F	F	1.26	125.26	50	382.95376897433	40.534568407256	0.4761311103915	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-02-14 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	35.5	27.38	31.44	106.67087927328	0.4825	0.5025	1.5	2.0025	F	F	3.5	128.5	50	383.40302007633	40.897937267573	0.58651794031416	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-02-14 07:00:04	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	36.08	26.7	31.39	108.14083831401	0.4856	0.5056	1.69	2.1956	F	F	4.08	123.08	50	384.20239334743	41.547968898842	0.61435928411559	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-02-14 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	36.19	26.61	31.4	108.14207867514	0.4617	0.5017	1.71	2.2117	F	F	4.19	137.19	50	384.20306660437	41.548518255958	0.61957842026528	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-02-13 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	36.75	27.7	32.225	108.1661423336	0.298	0.298	1.72	2.018	F	F	4.75	140.75	50	384.21612772346	41.5591763582	0.64579425782446	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-13 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	37.37	27.87	32.62	108.1224265971	0.298	0.298	1.7	1.998	F	F	5.37	138.37	50	384.19239938256	41.539814501404	0.67402937651346	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-13 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	39.29	27.77	33.53	108.26005815218	0.2868	0.2868	1.79	2.0768	F	F	7.29	142.29	50	384.26709511546	41.600778063171	0.7548317576627	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-13 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	35.14	27.52	31.33	108.31298759827	0.3643	0.3743	1.82	2.1943	F	F	3.14	128.14	50	384.29581416207	41.624227753406	0.56900588981159	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-13 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	35.1	27.08	31.09	108.32137626442	0.3643	0.3743	1.81	2.1843	F	F	3.1	124.1	50	384.30036542326	41.627944481565	0.56705104114466	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-13 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	35.55	29.29	32.42	108.0204557632	0.3689	0.4589	1.8	2.2589	F	F	3.55	126.55	50	384.13704068045	41.494658209829	0.5889374441578	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-12 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	35.3	26.83	31.065	109.22857512988	0.2292	0.3192	1.78	2.0992	F	F	3.3	135.3	50	384.79199323962	42.03028114295	0.57680792799536	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-12 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	34.6	26.57	30.585	107.40284831694	0.0952	0.2152	1.71	1.9252	F	F	2.6	134.6	50	383.80144266678	41.221368130564	0.54249218950587	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-12 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	35.28	26.6	30.94	107.36061621108	0.0531	0.1731	1.75	1.9231	F	F	3.28	132.28	50	383.77847517928	41.202693583797	0.57583425311701	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-12 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	31.33	28.64	29.985	106.69954997743	0.0457	0.2357	1.77	2.0057	F	F	-0.67	131.33	50	383.41863994738	40.910596335344	0.38216780683583	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-02-12 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	31.29	30.24	30.765	105.56562118815	0.0181	0.1781	1.59	1.7681	F	F	-0.71	129.29	50	382.80000474907	40.410520292164	0.38027262379027	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-02-12 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	142	-142	30.83	30.26	30.545	105.2148438469	0.0034	0.0334	1.63	1.6634	F	F	-1.17	130.83	50	382.60827074744	40.256069461223	0.35869474269845	16	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L