Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 18, 2022

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DAY 141 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/19/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.98°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.52°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.75°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.906 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 111 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.23 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.90 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.13 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 110 in SWE DAY: 49 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 384.65 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 42.49 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -143 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-02-19 07:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	141	-143	43.98008	23.52002	33.75005	110.47057958333	0	0.23	1.9	2.13	F	F	11.98008	110.98008	49	384.65442841021	42.492997645772	0.90594217698381	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-02-19 03:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	141	-143	43.98008	23.52002	33.75005	110.47057958333	0	0.23	1.9	2.13	F	F	11.98008	110.98008	49	384.65442841021	42.492997645772	0.90594217698381	16	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-02-18 11:00:01	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	40.99	30.69	35.84	110.722512	0.0004	0.2304	1.9	2.1304	F	F	8.99	107.99	49	384.79084237871	42.605008662767	0.82962918052971	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-18 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	40.88	26.83	33.855	110.59581075	0.0039	0.2339	1.9	2.1339	F	F	8.88	107.88	49	384.72224830228	42.548668964553	0.82622111042457	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-18 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	39.67	25.04	32.355	110.65521469089	0.0032	0.2332	1.9	2.1332	F	F	7.67	106.67	49	384.75441141608	42.575081998514	0.78592384857366	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-17 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	40.59	27.11	33.85	111.73902133333	0.0011	0.1811	1.9	2.0811	F	F	8.59	112.59	49	385.34036637343	43.057555418795	0.81703056073089	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-17 19:00:01	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	40.17	29.75	34.96	111.75394533333	0.0017	0.1817	1.9	2.0817	F	F	8.17	112.17	49	385.34842371024	43.064206677601	0.80319471391145	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-17 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	39.77	28.57	34.17	111.77603066667	0.0034	0.1834	1.9	2.0834	F	F	7.77	111.77	49	385.36034682775	43.074049944735	0.78944673885531	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-17 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	39.15	28.86	34.005	111.74753275987	0.0031	0.1831	1.9	2.0831	F	F	7.15	111.15	49	385.34496165545	43.061348726442	0.76706144805454	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-17 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	39.06	28.44	33.75	111.37586057752	0.0027	0.1927	1.9	2.0927	F	F	7.06	111.06	49	385.14420488919	42.895767265978	0.76370573093688	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-17 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	39.08	28.53	33.805	111.39976061419	0.0028	0.1928	1.9	2.0928	F	F	7.08	110.08	49	385.15712007028	42.90641097468	0.76445373453427	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-16 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	38.7	28.31	33.505	107.7688944236	0.0029	0.0129	1.9	1.9129	F	F	6.7	112.7	49	383.18604505721	41.295536434366	0.75002083769468	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-16 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	38.94	28.71	33.825	107.7548933717	0.003	0.013	1.9	1.913	F	F	6.94	113.94	49	383.17840911951	41.289348617009	0.75919040192041	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-16 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	38.41	29.02	33.715	107.74950692493	0.0028	0.0028	1.9	1.9028	F	F	6.41	113.41	49	383.17547136991	41.286968105835	0.7386988351722	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-16 11:00:01	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	38.57	29.35	33.96	107.75412242712	0.0014	0.0014	1.9	1.9014	F	F	6.57	113.57	49	383.17798865145	41.289007900527	0.74497781878352	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-16 07:00:04	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	39.42	28.78	34.1	107.97465179319	0.0014	0.0114	1.9	1.9114	F	F	7.42	118.42	49	383.29823034491	41.386492954438	0.77696830981193	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-16 03:00:04	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	39.24	29.02	34.13	108.06333008833	0	0.03	1.9	1.93	F	F	7.24	117.24	49	383.34656241991	41.42570611301	0.77039057053933	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-15 23:00:01	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	39.99	28.71	34.35	105.67469594524	0	0.04	1.54	1.58	F	F	7.99	120.99	49	382.04088180464	40.372054023356	0.7970765070069	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-15 19:00:01	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	39.43	30.14	34.785	105.70752789793	0.0016	0.0416	1.54	1.5816	F	F	7.43	120.43	49	382.05888222802	40.386499951771	0.77733057145898	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-15 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	40.01	30.94	35.475	105.7345796488	0.0033	0.0633	1.54	1.6033	F	F	8.01	121.01	49	382.07371247408	40.398403383304	0.79776185362699	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-15 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	38.93	29.56	34.245	105.88071397559	0.0062	0.0762	1.54	1.6162	F	F	6.93	118.93	49	382.15380826638	40.462718067733	0.75881202030431	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-15 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	36.34	28.66	32.5	105.87918305974	0.0032	0.0732	1.54	1.6132	F	F	4.34	118.34	49	382.15296933002	40.462044196517	0.6509888643166	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-15 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	40.5	28.39	34.445	105.79157801897	0.0027	0.0627	1.54	1.6027	F	F	8.5	119.5	49	382.10495664876	40.423486332743	0.81411788929564	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-14 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	40.05	28.05	34.05	103.72059234799	0.0005	0.0505	1.49	1.5405	F	F	8.05	116.05	49	380.96681835237	39.514104064436	0.79912839460108	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-14 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	40.58	27.37	33.975	103.60856735593	0	0.03	1.49	1.52	F	F	8.58	117.58	49	380.90508264714	39.46502991166	0.81670834092042	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-14 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	40.45	28.26	34.355	103.71352116664	0	0.04	1.49	1.53	F	F	8.45	114.45	49	380.96292202375	39.511006077014	0.81248741215284	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-14 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	40.56	28.23	34.395	104.94528649244	0	0.05	1.49	1.54	F	F	8.56	114.56	49	381.64058891736	40.051380941074	0.81606284299434	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-14 07:00:04	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	36.71	28.2	32.455	106.40136778698	0	0.06	1.67	1.73	F	F	4.71	108.71	49	382.43893554564	40.692025837054	0.66746227854831	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-14 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	36.54	28.23	32.385	106.30533124877	0	0.07	1.7	1.77	F	F	4.54	122.54	49	382.38637111255	40.649709846134	0.65993115471728	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-13 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	40.85	28.54	34.695	106.6370696207	0	0.02	1.72	1.74	F	F	8.85	125.85	49	382.56788974316	40.795918693186	0.82528418027663	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-13 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	41.21	27.66	34.435	106.56917093058	0	0.01	1.71	1.72	F	F	9.21	123.21	49	382.53074978933	40.765984860502	0.83631624141622	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-13 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	41.78	27.19	34.485	106.86266857177	0	0.06	1.75	1.81	F	F	9.78	124.78	49	382.69124429083	40.895407603969	0.85283995451488	16	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2022-02-13 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	36.47	27.28	31.875	106.56909078362	0.0077	0.0777	1.77	1.8477	F	F	4.47	115.47	49	382.53070594589	40.765949529469	0.65681125599429	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-13 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	36.47	27.32	31.895	106.44288643588	0.0081	0.0481	1.79	1.8381	F	F	4.47	111.47	49	382.46165630439	40.710322648086	0.65681125599429	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-13 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	35.89	28.29	32.09	106.57010544612	0.0949	0.1449	1.77	1.9149	F	F	3.89	112.89	49	382.53126100414	40.766396821649	0.6305663575167	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-12 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	37.39	28.08	32.735	107.55096761752	0.0946	0.1046	1.79	1.8946	F	F	5.39	122.39	49	383.06716066385	41.199243791895	0.69689218358301	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-12 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	37.44	28.3	32.87	106.84753608053	0.1174	0.1274	1.72	1.8474	F	F	5.44	122.44	49	382.68297225455	40.888732685372	0.69900956685431	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-02-12 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	37.17	28.31	32.74	107.17198985078	0.1174	0.1274	1.76	1.8874	F	F	5.17	119.17	49	382.86026225029	41.031896140157	0.68749770507348	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-12 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	36.3	29.83	33.065	106.44059032885	0.1701	0.2101	1.77	1.9801	F	F	4.3	122.3	49	382.46039984021	40.709310736399	0.64919011021537	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-12 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	36.68	28.7	32.69	105.54672282923	0.1364	0.1764	1.59	1.7664	F	F	4.68	119.68	49	381.97070502322	40.315756131971	0.66613804769211	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2022-02-12 03:00:04	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	37.52	30.83	34.175	105.19016325906	0.0147	0.0547	1.63	1.6847	F	F	5.52	121.52	49	381.77505763368	40.158980640724	0.70238344640947	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-11 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	36.92	30.95	33.935	105.24461505342	0.0354	0.0854	1.61	1.6954	F	F	4.92	125.92	49	381.80494727958	40.18291470193	0.67667272009357	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2022-02-11 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	37.56	29.68	33.62	105.32903069447	0.0329	0.0729	1.65	1.7229	F	F	5.56	125.56	49	381.85127649065	40.220024822206	0.70406389425119	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-11 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	37.55	29.8	33.675	105.65709317293	0.0288	0.0688	1.68	1.7488	F	F	5.55	126.55	49	382.03123030285	40.364309295079	0.70364419048011	16	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2022-02-11 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	31.49	28.04	29.765	105.50166151411	0.0398	0.1098	1.68	1.7898	F	F	-0.51	117.49	49	381.94598926148	40.295936475737	0.42039806704048	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-02-11 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	29.55	26.75	28.15	105.46493039884	0.0328	0.1028	1.65	1.7528	F	F	-2.45	106.55	49	381.92584045317	40.279782180912	0.3312645067747	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-02-11 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	141	-143	34.48	31.66	33.07	104.3133953904	0.0153	0.0853	1.46	1.5453	F	F	2.48	108.48	49	381.29321313238	39.773989701154	0.5644089462881	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L