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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 16, 2022

[ Tuesday, February 15, 2022 | Index | Today | Thursday, February 17, 2022 ]

DAY 139 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/17/2022 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.39°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.318
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 95

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.16 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.90 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.39 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.29 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 112 in
SWE DAY: 47
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 383.64 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 42.81 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -145

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-02-17 07:00:05OBSERVATION2022139-14530.1200822.6500826.38508111.595905416670.160000000000080.900000000000082.393.2900000000001TF-1.8799295.1200847383.64088673023 42.8127521095130.3183210163986716 2113126DRYL
2022-02-17 03:00:05OBSERVATION2022139-14530.1200822.6500826.38508111.595905416670.160000000000080.900000000000082.393.2900000000001TF-1.8799295.1200847383.64088673023 42.8127521095130.3183210163986716 2113126DRYL
2022-02-16 11:00:01FORECAST2022139-14532.3425.9229.13108.012543931590.0040.7442.393.134FF0.3497.3447381.6818546056341.226428088480.41961977160006162113126DRYL
2022-02-16 07:00:04FORECAST2022139-14536.3524.5630.455108.268604917570.00540.74542.393.1354FF4.35101.3547381.8224360639441.339382478870.61179577038434163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-16 03:00:04FORECAST2022139-14535.3525.7430.545108.349640966420.01710.75712.393.1471FF3.35100.3547381.8669070699641.3751422779860.56457882485224163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-15 23:00:01FORECAST2022139-14536.325.6630.98105.993566611910.02820.40822.392.7982FF4.3103.347380.5701962268940.337992444280.60946764128873163112125DRYL
2022-02-15 19:00:01FORECAST2022139-14536.3425.6130.975106.011348582180.02960.40962.392.7996FF4.34103.3447380.5800119675740.3458003121030.61133046278423163112125DRYL
2022-02-15 15:00:01FORECAST2022139-14536.2225.9231.07106.044740426170.04390.42392.392.8139FF4.22103.2247380.5984432423840.3604631202440.6057344927469163112125DRYL
2022-02-15 11:00:02FORECAST2022139-14535.6926.1530.92106.092523203460.03850.41852.392.8085FF3.69102.6947380.624815152640.3814470333910.58077217133929163112125DRYL
2022-02-15 07:00:08FORECAST2022139-14535.4326.3230.875106.05404965560.04840.42842.392.8184FF3.43104.4347380.6035813731640.3645511180480.56839982952997163112125DRYL
2022-02-15 03:00:05FORECAST2022139-14535.4625.8530.655106.048273811450.04250.42252.392.8125FF3.46104.4647380.6003934713440.3620147395940.569831077968163112125DRYL
2022-02-14 23:00:02FORECAST2022139-14535.3425.9530.645104.051338242190.0360.3662.392.756FF3.3497.3447379.4954028484439.4870045231380.56410076749155163112125DRYL
2022-02-14 19:00:02FORECAST2022139-14535.126.2230.66104.018506529220.02190.35192.392.7419FF3.197.147379.477188772539.4726504380230.5526008748927163112125DRYL
2022-02-14 15:00:03FORECAST2022139-14535.0926.730.895104.022058010550.02090.35092.392.7409FF3.0997.0947379.4791591039339.4742031021050.55212068272086163112125DRYL
2022-02-14 11:00:01FORECAST2022139-14535.4926.6331.06105.379183005730.03160.36162.392.7516FF3.4993.4947380.2307808349140.0684090380150.5712614095783163112125DRYL
2022-02-14 07:00:04FORECAST2022139-14531.9926.5429.265106.576855745030.04030.55032.392.9403FF-0.01000000000000295.9947380.8919437514340.5942657436410.4030884075883162113126DRYL
2022-02-14 03:00:06FORECAST2022139-14535.9526.4431.195106.5382908060.03170.57172.392.9617FF3.95103.9547380.8706856980440.5773118723780.59306516383312163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-13 23:00:02FORECAST2022139-14535.6925.8930.79107.103995814050.02480.57482.42.9748FF3.69102.6947381.1823091677740.8261484454950.58077217133929163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-13 19:00:02FORECAST2022139-14535.326.1530.725107.044563249430.0130.5532.42.953FF3.3101.347381.1495912743740.7999915306650.56218760825592163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-13 15:00:03FORECAST2022139-14535.4725.6130.54107.373364571770.06110.64112.43.0411FF3.47101.4747381.3305359707440.9447426611340.5703079579491163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-13 11:00:03FORECAST2022139-14531.724.5828.14106.827350014350.0690.6692.43.069FF-0.397.747381.0299723932340.7044222268080.38951964109249162113126DRYL
2022-02-13 07:00:07FORECAST2022139-14532.0625.0128.535106.628381612730.04030.66032.43.0603FF0.06000000000000297.0647380.9203429751340.6169196948030.40638186195425162113126DRYL
2022-02-13 03:00:07FORECAST2022139-14537.3925.131.245106.496507496920.04560.65562.393.0456FF5.3999.3947380.8476512403240.5589447454990.65919767863365163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-12 23:00:03FORECAST2022139-14537.2525.4331.34107.516211415120.01270.64272.393.0327FF5.25102.2547381.4090998285141.0076614128110.65294222557515163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-12 19:00:03FORECAST2022139-14537.4924.230.845106.92535264450.01180.57182.392.9618FF5.49102.4947381.0839504107640.747535784830.66363934650488163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-12 15:00:02FORECAST2022139-14537.5825.1131.345107.127994872980.01320.61322.393.0032FF5.58103.5847381.1955193575540.8367116433390.66761744790619163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-12 11:00:02FORECAST2022139-14537.925.2931.595106.281527476110.02090.63092.393.0209FF5.9103.947380.7290976023440.4644700477790.6816070984107163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-12 07:00:06FORECAST2022139-14532.825.8329.315105.227324397290.01590.44592.392.8359FF0.899.847380.1468050807540.0018311768250.44155969602194162112124DRYL
2022-02-12 03:00:04FORECAST2022139-14532.7925.8929.34105.388708769950.01590.48592.392.8759FF0.79100.7947380.2360473739740.0725860605320.44108057498678162112124DRYL
2022-02-11 23:00:02FORECAST2022139-14538.7825.6232.2105.282014765640.02140.47142.392.8614FF6.78106.7847380.1770518460640.0258059860150.71872192656596164112126DRYL
2022-02-11 19:00:02FORECAST2022139-14537.6926.0731.88105.353751413440.01410.50412.392.8941FF5.69105.6947380.2167197666840.0572577775310.67245402901211163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-11 15:00:03FORECAST2022139-14538.5526.1332.34105.630932990360.01230.52232.42.9223FF6.55106.5547380.3699238283740.1788299354610.70922473298288164113129DRYL
2022-02-11 11:00:02FORECAST2022139-14538.5826.6932.635105.091396788380.01660.52662.42.9266FF6.58105.5847380.0716114763339.9422565296580.71047195237152164113129DRYL
2022-02-11 07:00:05FORECAST2022139-14537.2926.4331.86104.988636626490.01660.50662.392.8966FF5.2999.2947380.0147484913439.8972303420650.65473384359616163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-11 03:00:07FORECAST2022139-14536.9426.7431.84104.126921638230.0210.3212.392.711FF4.9496.9447379.5373285371839.5200536673750.63894387069971163112125DRYL
2022-02-10 23:00:04FORECAST2022139-14538.6628.1333.395105.058948103610.01810.37812.42.7781FF6.6697.6647380.0536573948839.9280374688340.7137855432293164112126DRYL
2022-02-10 19:00:02FORECAST2022139-14536.5327.2331.88105.133120858160.03480.42482.42.8248FF4.53101.5347380.0946955177839.9605415614150.62014327638439163112125DRYL
2022-02-10 15:00:03FORECAST2022139-14536.7727.0231.895104.859142293670.03480.39482.42.7948FF4.77103.7747379.9430708446339.8405045291920.63118619310078163112125DRYL
2022-02-10 11:00:03FORECAST2022139-14537.6927.4932.59104.378392832860.0090.3992.42.799FF5.6998.6947379.6767602838639.6300500344170.67245402901211163112125DRYL
2022-02-10 07:00:04FORECAST2022139-14537.6828.6933.185104.041538715710.0080.4082.42.808FF5.6899.6847379.4899665162339.4827200435230.67201551745465163112125DRYL
2022-02-10 03:00:05FORECAST2022139-14537.728.7833.24104.484538958860.0080.4782.42.878FF5.7103.747379.7355877740339.6764978148430.67289230296684163112125DRYL
2022-02-09 23:00:04FORECAST2022139-14536.9327.6732.3106.342078880140.01980.69982.53.1998FF4.93102.9347380.7624960416840.4910753886620.63848907844517163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-09 19:00:03FORECAST2022139-14537.8324.731.265107.397595150140.00110.73112.53.2311FF5.83100.8347381.3438644731540.9554139696780.67856800919114163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-09 15:00:03FORECAST2022139-14537.8324.7631.295107.339832903100.722.553.27FF5.83101.8347381.3120898690240.9299760104740.67856800919114163113127.5DRYL
2022-02-09 11:00:04FORECAST2022139-14528.4223.1325.775105.0058296240300.592.42.99FF-3.5886.4247380.0242633790839.9047630533810.24862183374273161113124.5DRYL
2022-02-09 07:00:08FORECAST2022139-14523.9522.8223.385105.3076872672900.592.433.02FF-8.0574.9547380.1912486947540.0370611193050.11086719131346161113124.5DRYL
2022-02-09 03:00:06FORECAST2022139-14523.1522.8222.985105.038176709100.592.453.04FF-8.8590.1547380.0421636619839.9189359436340.093547346330062161113124.5DRYL