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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 1, 2022

[ Monday, January 31, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, February 2, 2022 ]

DAY 124 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/02/2022 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 22.03°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.53°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.28°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.118
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 179

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.02 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.72 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.97 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 108 in
SWE DAY: 32
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 369.25 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 40.04 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -160

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-02-02 07:00:03OBSERVATION2022124-16022.0299816.5300819.28003108.441384166670.0199999999999821.252.723.97TF-9.97002179.0299832369.24859925706 40.0418292050380.1181983421440416 1114126DRYL
2022-02-02 03:00:04OBSERVATION2022124-16022.0299816.5300819.28003108.441384166670.0199999999999821.252.723.97TF-9.97002179.0299832369.24859925706 40.0418292050380.1181983421440416 1114126DRYL
2022-02-01 11:00:01FORECAST2022124-16024.0215.919.96107.212327404260.03951.26952.723.9895TF-7.98181.0232368.5336790193739.5113534545220.16797170183424161114126DRYL
2022-02-01 07:00:05FORECAST2022124-16023.3516.2519.8107.687744011120.07161.30162.724.0216TF-8.65180.3532368.810485033539.7163691009050.14989570276785161114126WETL
2022-02-01 03:00:04FORECAST2022124-16023.0115.3519.18107.813584072480.08931.31932.724.0393TF-8.99180.0132368.8836980742939.7706735952980.14123692508895161114126WETL
2022-01-31 23:00:02FORECAST2022124-16023.9616.3820.1799.6041317162070.10131.09132.723.8113TF-8.04181.9632364.058111348336.261692075090.16629812454626161114126DRYL
2022-01-31 19:00:02FORECAST2022124-16020.3415.1417.7499.763768546150.12041.11042.723.8304TF-11.66178.3432364.1529097633336.3292666050360.084943823629823161114126DRYL
2022-01-31 15:00:01FORECAST2022124-16023.3516.3119.8399.8985685002220.14761.13762.723.8576TF-8.65181.3532364.2329291700136.3863482247260.14989570276785161114126DRYL
2022-01-31 11:00:02FORECAST2022124-16023.3716.1119.74102.064411270880.1521.1422.723.862TF-8.63181.3732365.5148586215237.3060588559650.15041580884451161114126DRYL
2022-01-31 07:00:05FORECAST2022124-16022.9614.6118.785103.764926794460.16731.33732.724.0573TF-9.04181.9632366.5164373326938.0315512887940.13999268636454161114126WETL
2022-01-31 03:00:04FORECAST2022124-16023.2113.4518.33105.886102849050.2211.6612.724.381TF-8.79178.2132367.7597304181638.9406446387950.14628847852726161115127.5WETL
2022-01-30 23:00:02FORECAST2022124-16021.912.8617.38106.222256621640.21491.91492.724.6349TF-10.1178.932367.9561473532439.0851323096650.11535420310565161115127.5WETL
2022-01-30 19:00:03FORECAST2022124-16023.813.1618.48106.097196679580.23491.89492.724.6149TF-8.2180.832367.8830935681939.0313649333950.16188796356752161115127.5WETL
2022-01-30 15:00:02FORECAST2022124-16021.8513.1217.485105.743446093520.23211.83212.724.5521TF-10.15178.8532367.6763244050638.8793615895910.11427315396345161115127.5WETL
2022-01-30 11:00:02FORECAST2022124-16024.8413.5919.215108.719252875290.21221.81222.724.5322TF-7.16182.8432369.4099213972740.1619706590320.19191992291395161115127.5WETL
2022-01-30 07:00:05FORECAST2022124-16024.2914.0619.175109.132475350270.20031.91032.724.6303TF-7.71180.2932369.6496153645640.3407775370080.17563603678538161115127.5WETL
2022-01-30 03:00:04FORECAST2022124-16022.1714.4518.31108.976768332080.21731.89732.724.6173TF-9.83178.1732369.5593254366340.2733809930660.12131708605148161115127.5WETL
2022-01-29 23:00:03FORECAST2022124-16020.3614.3517.355109.442909386150.21791.84792.724.5679TF-11.64177.3632369.8295204152140.4752186911250.085291498525436161115127.5WETL
2022-01-29 19:00:02FORECAST2022124-1602511.8218.41108.890515227610.21261.75262.724.4726TF-718232369.5092944225440.2360574510620.196824916915161115127.5WETL
2022-01-29 15:00:02FORECAST2022124-16024.8813.4419.16108.844181752150.24871.77872.724.4987TF-7.12183.8832369.4824142175640.2160110473190.19313911827143161115127.5WETL
2022-01-29 11:00:02FORECAST2022124-16025.214.5219.86107.509356587940.22131.72132.724.4413TF-6.8184.232368.7066601253739.6394157997660.20306156258166161115127.5WETL
2022-01-29 07:00:06FORECAST2022124-16026.2316.2321.23107.558255093370.18581.71582.734.4458TF-5.77184.2332368.7351246755639.6605066017410.23699661825434161115127.5WETL
2022-01-29 03:00:07FORECAST2022124-16025.9715.8420.905107.36911506840.17371.59372.734.3237TF-6.03183.9732368.6250038301739.578940453330.22814845482307161115127.5WETL
2022-01-28 23:00:02FORECAST2022124-16025.4515.3920.42106.905601137960.12231.53232.724.2523TF-6.55187.4532368.3549135965839.3792034701650.21102075428456161115127.5WETL
2022-01-28 19:00:03FORECAST2022124-16025.9516.0220.985106.322843700780.12791.43792.724.1579TF-6.05182.9532368.0148884754839.1283894669380.22747559401251161114126WETL
2022-01-28 15:00:03FORECAST2022124-16025.2315.3920.31106.686637302140.15361.50362.724.2236TF-6.77185.2332368.2272124237739.2849230566310.20400711132436161115127.5WETL
2022-01-28 11:00:02FORECAST2022124-16025.4315.1320.28105.787676129130.18191.44192.724.1619TF-6.57187.4332367.7021872677438.8983598986530.21037738005651161114126WETL
2022-01-28 07:00:06FORECAST2022124-16026.6517.3421.995106.411487721610.1541.5642.724.284TF-5.35182.6532368.0666426180539.1665190216840.251679110291111621151210WETL
2022-01-28 03:00:06FORECAST2022124-16025.6417.6921.665108.515651794590.19071.72072.724.4407TF-6.36176.6432369.2917279378140.073932559520.21718998528392161115127.5WETL
2022-01-27 23:00:03FORECAST2022124-16025.3413.4519.395109.021167484030.10251.63252.724.3525TF-6.66173.3432369.5850748407440.292596343810.20749645321099161115127.5WETL
2022-01-27 19:00:02FORECAST2022124-16025.4814.3419.91107.458325098510.091.42.724.12TF-6.52176.4832368.6769501630539.6174075669470.21198797092396161114126WETL
2022-01-27 15:00:03FORECAST2022124-16025.4914.2719.88108.172341501220.07771.47772.724.1977TF-6.51175.4932369.0922927205939.9255775336410.21231095064594161114126WETL
2022-01-27 11:00:03FORECAST2022124-16029.0117.7423.375106.990119756680.04731.46732.724.1873TF-2.99181.0132368.4041864249539.4156080244680.34223306048134162114128WETL
2022-01-27 07:00:06FORECAST2022124-16029.117.6423.37107.764026037630.04731.60732.724.3273TF-2.9183.132368.8548682812239.7492856295630.345922173165171621151210WETL
2022-01-27 03:00:08FORECAST2022124-16029.4516.3122.88106.958081530750.00991.41992.724.1399TF-2.55180.4532368.3855099626839.4018074093330.36040533794361162114128WETL
2022-01-26 23:00:03FORECAST2022124-16031.5119.2625.385106.291737330620.02681.29682.724.0168TF-0.49184.5132367.9967244938339.1150111784260.44908778827127162114128WETL
2022-01-26 19:00:03FORECAST2022124-16031.5619.1825.37105.12003465410.02681.22682.723.9468TF-0.44186.5632367.3114844802638.6117959774160.45129182219756162114128DRYL
2022-01-26 15:00:03FORECAST2022124-16031.2618.3524.805105.947825378590.04241.15242.723.8724TF-0.74181.2632367.7958078826138.9671660285240.43809250532308162114128DRYL
2022-01-26 11:00:04FORECAST2022124-16032.319.3425.82104.40067585520.08810.92812.723.6481TF0.3183.332366.8897746004738.3035404326510.48405075159042162113126DRYL
2022-01-26 07:00:07FORECAST2022124-16030.4717.3223.895103.961390481550.01010.86012.723.5801TF-1.53176.4732366.6318730364138.1155593157220.40369897464124162113126DRYL
2022-01-26 03:00:07FORECAST2022124-16030.4917.3523.92104.010204426870.01010.86012.733.5901TF-1.51181.4932366.6605455975138.1364383028660.40456174518034162113126DRYL
2022-01-25 23:00:03FORECAST2022124-16031.920.7826.34110.211674369760.15711.44712.744.1871TF-0.1165.932370.274430694140.8085649831080.46631563710893162114128WETL
2022-01-25 19:00:03FORECAST2022124-16031.621.0126.305110.89155679130.13891.46892.744.2089TF-0.4175.632370.6671783813341.1038604621450.45305613440226162114128WETL
2022-01-25 15:00:02FORECAST2022124-16031.720.5826.14112.010978586760.09361.57362.764.3336TF-0.3169.732371.3123589234741.5910606843770.457470895520971621151210WETL
2022-01-25 11:00:04FORECAST2022124-16022.2820.621.44109.52693054960.1011.2412.733.971TF-9.72153.2832369.8781885992840.5116226745270.12380730932175161114126DRYL
2022-01-25 07:00:05FORECAST2022124-16021.7220.2520.985109.0770491260.0581.1982.723.918TF-10.28149.7232369.6174794177240.3167839602760.1114961374183161114126DRYL
2022-01-25 03:00:06FORECAST2022124-16021.6920.5721.13105.17526185060.00410.84412.723.5641TF-10.31165.6932367.3438284950838.6354833511730.11086218212912161113124.5DRYL