Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 6, 2022

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DAY 67 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/07/2022 07:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.79°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.34°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.56°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.196 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 19 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.07 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.66 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.51 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.17 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 65 in SWE DAY: 26 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 336.85 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 21.98 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 147 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 3 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-12-07 07:00:12	OBSERVATION	2023	67	147	24.78992	22.33994	23.56493	65.2459325	0.069999999999936	0.65999999999994	6.51	7.1699999999999	T	T	-7.21008	18.78992	26	336.84920024428	21.978040181817	0.19633672055784	16	1	3	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-12-07 03:00:08	OBSERVATION	2023	67	147	24.78992	22.33994	23.56493	65.2459325	0.069999999999936	0.65999999999994	6.51	7.1699999999999	T	T	-7.21008	18.78992	26	336.84920024428	21.978040181817	0.19633672055784	16	1	3	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-12-06 11:00:02	FORECAST	2023	67	147	31.6	24.08	27.84	65.101225899131	0.0482	0.6382	6.51	7.1482	T	T	-0.4	25.6	26	336.75323214292	21.923048237999	0.46632036751907	16	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-12-06 07:00:17	FORECAST	2023	67	147	29.49	23.17	26.33	64.97047685713	0.0673	0.6573	6.51	7.1673	T	T	-2.51	23.49	26	336.66649022822	21.873382411944	0.3732901551457	16	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-12-06 03:00:23	FORECAST	2023	67	147	29.97	21.85	25.91	65.013214379866	0.082	0.672	6.51	7.182	T	T	-2.03	23.97	26	336.69484645069	21.889614232895	0.39401629907899	16	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-12-05 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	67	147	29.61	23.81	26.71	65.245353729788	0.1068	0.3568	6.51	6.8668	T	T	-2.39	31.61	26	336.84881647939	21.977820184658	0.37844004665186	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-05 19:00:04	FORECAST	2023	67	147	31.02	23.4	27.21	65.286581564187	0.1206	0.3706	6.51	6.8806	T	T	-0.98	33.02	26	336.8761519885	21.993492373827	0.44033601228125	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-05 15:00:02	FORECAST	2023	67	147	31.76	22.56	27.16	65.255997449518	0.115	0.365	6.51	6.875	T	T	-0.24	33.76	26	336.8558739153	21.981866049072	0.47351861175779	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-05 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	67	147	34.43	23.29	28.86	65.02313674659	0.105	0.355	6.51	6.865	T	T	2.43	36.43	26	336.70142947198	21.893383091329	0.59310253560795	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-05 07:00:20	FORECAST	2023	67	147	33.85	23.59	28.72	65.229580679296	0.1261	0.3961	6.51	6.9061	T	T	1.85	34.85	26	336.83835763319	21.971824825116	0.56747077822198	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-05 03:00:29	FORECAST	2023	67	147	31.91	22.93	27.42	65.444884793406	0.1377	0.4477	6.51	6.9577	T	T	-0.09	29.91	26	336.98108602245	22.053688352296	0.48027487268727	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-04 23:00:05	FORECAST	2023	67	147	32.61	23.51	28.06	67.626042403429	0.1346	0.4346	6.51	6.9446	T	T	0.61	29.61	26	338.42261659258	22.886182219969	0.51184765910957	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-04 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	67	147	29.35	23.07	26.21	67.702858652042	0.1442	0.4842	6.51	6.9942	T	T	-2.65	31.35	26	338.473239135	22.915605866656	0.36731047918922	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-04 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	67	147	33.62	22.82	28.22	67.467063140085	0.1248	0.4548	6.51	6.9648	T	T	1.62	38.62	26	338.31781656539	22.825309491633	0.55722092304864	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-04 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	67	147	32.94	23.04	27.99	68.21791364955	0.1307	0.4707	6.51	6.9807	T	T	0.94	37.94	26	338.81240961465	23.113075702488	0.52671832315406	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-04 07:00:25	FORECAST	2023	67	147	31.08	23.13	27.105	67.631804668126	0.098	0.358	6.51	6.868	T	T	-0.92	34.08	26	338.42641431529	22.888389147506	0.44301410322438	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-04 03:00:14	FORECAST	2023	67	147	35.62	23.8	29.71	67.482839231667	0.1023	0.3423	6.51	6.8523	T	T	3.62	42.62	26	338.32821814542	22.831348752644	0.64435202760599	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-03 23:00:08	FORECAST	2023	67	147	33.55	21.93	27.74	66.847344840784	0.1164	0.3264	6.44	6.7664	T	T	1.55	44.55	26	337.90889052147	22.588312129455	0.55409345871542	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-03 19:00:05	FORECAST	2023	67	147	34.39	24.92	29.655	66.720752093291	0.1072	0.3372	6.44	6.7772	T	T	2.39	44.39	26	337.82527808785	22.539956630146	0.59134625402364	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-03 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	67	147	35.39	24.47	29.93	66.802675774682	0.1075	0.3375	6.44	6.7775	T	T	3.39	46.39	26	337.87939040542	22.571247368201	0.63461601901572	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-03 11:00:06	FORECAST	2023	67	147	35.26	21.77	28.515	66.685266138722	0.0887	0.3087	6.44	6.7487	T	T	3.26	48.26	26	337.80183537196	22.526405293928	0.62907398058921	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-03 07:00:22	FORECAST	2023	67	147	32.29	23.4	27.845	66.765555675486	0.1119	0.4019	6.44	6.8419	T	T	0.29	41.29	26	337.85487319295	22.557068346398	0.49741167201458	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-03 03:00:27	FORECAST	2023	67	147	35.64	21.99	28.815	66.804708326014	0.0731	0.3731	6.45	6.8231	T	T	3.64	40.64	26	337.88073280526	22.572023804035	0.64519431222588	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-02 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	67	147	32.14	22.89	27.515	69.597368517083	0.0694	0.3294	6.67	6.9994	T	T	0.14	54.14	26	339.718616177	23.643521722184	0.49064481737645	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-02 19:00:05	FORECAST	2023	67	147	32.25	23.25	27.75	69.010571565512	0.0687	0.2287	6.67	6.8987	T	T	0.25	51.25	26	339.3335191372	23.417600106995	0.49560702422457	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-02 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	67	147	32.97	23.33	28.15	69.139157429746	0.0697	0.2497	6.63	6.8797	T	T	0.97	53.97	26	339.41795525347	23.467071442752	0.52806866916658	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-02 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	67	147	33.01	23.98	28.495	69.451611438939	0.0875	0.2675	6.61	6.8775	T	T	1.01	57.01	26	339.62301380009	23.587365590165	0.52986862607846	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-02 07:00:29	FORECAST	2023	67	147	33.08	23.13	28.105	69.181626786482	0.0965	0.1865	6.73	6.9165	T	T	1.08	47.08	26	339.44583676769	23.483415193488	0.53301706064197	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-02 03:00:15	FORECAST	2023	67	147	33.24	23.87	28.555	69.188351834119	0.0995	0.1695	6.8	6.9695	T	T	1.24	56.24	26	339.45025154605	23.486003434148	0.54020541547263	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-01 23:00:09	FORECAST	2023	67	147	36.75	24.86	30.805	65.709985231116	0.0831	0.2131	6.46	6.6731	T	T	4.75	54.75	26	337.15671796896	22.154562958312	0.69072861086509	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-01 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	67	147	35.17	22.12	28.645	65.870050352677	0.0658	0.1658	6.34	6.5058	T	F	3.17	48.17	26	337.26270562109	22.215511401341	0.62522136598313	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-01 15:00:09	FORECAST	2023	67	147	35.17	22.11	28.64	64.983308759339	0.0658	0.0858	6.33	6.4158	T	F	3.17	58.17	26	336.67500448151	21.878255767774	0.62522136598313	16	3	3	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-12-01 11:00:05	FORECAST	2023	67	147	34.3	23.2	28.75	66.299048160615	0.1379	0.1679	6.39	6.5579	T	F	2.3	59.3	26	337.54655552686	22.379015341325	0.58738795965881	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-01 07:00:18	FORECAST	2023	67	147	34.02	24.95	29.485	66.506004645899	0.1379	0.1479	6.58	6.7279	T	T	2.02	65.02	26	337.68337941948	22.457972400515	0.5750180811374	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-01 03:00:29	FORECAST	2023	67	147	32.16	24.51	28.335	67.549253592564	0.1695	0.1795	6.71	6.8895	T	T	0.16	60.16	26	338.37200225905	22.85677618922	0.49154695162536	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-11-30 23:00:10	FORECAST	2023	67	147	34.31	23.96	29.135	52.824371490868	0.163	0.173	5.95	6.123	T	F	2.31	55.31	26	328.48153888064	17.351830837723	0.5878282170555	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-30 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	67	147	32.02	24.35	28.185	51.451165280825	0.1679	0.1779	6.23	6.4079	T	F	0.020000000000003	60.02	26	327.54018169059	16.852324024274	0.4852331781995	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-11-30 15:00:08	FORECAST	2023	67	147	32.08	25.28	28.68	51.31659634799	0.0991	0.1091	6.19	6.2991	T	F	0.079999999999998	62.08	26	327.44775553376	16.803504295781	0.48793872019673	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-11-30 11:00:09	FORECAST	2023	67	147	32.09	24.03	28.06	55.228598965731	0.1356	0.2456	6.28	6.5256	T	F	0.090000000000003	54.09	26	330.12179337799	18.232164136321	0.48838970120066	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-11-30 07:00:18	FORECAST	2023	67	147	32	24.02	28.01	56.745468612348	0.1356	0.2456	6.41	6.6556	T	T	0	53	26	331.15151738814	18.79134803588	0.48433147575027	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-11-30 03:00:19	FORECAST	2023	67	147	33.93	25.14	29.535	59.529487086329	0.1334	0.4434	6.84	7.2834	T	T	1.93	62.93	26	333.03115079613	19.825173590663	0.57102569190695	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-29 23:00:05	FORECAST	2023	67	147	31.44	24.14	27.79	56.911725755805	0.0474	0.3974	6.84	7.2374	T	T	-0.56	57.44	26	331.26413966214	18.852813869184	0.4591331235673	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-11-29 19:00:10	FORECAST	2023	67	147	31.12	23.73	27.425	56.659213561707	0.0672	0.3572	6.62	6.9772	T	T	-0.88	64.12	26	331.09306963993	18.75947294153	0.44480095228993	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-11-29 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	67	147	31.89	25.12	28.505	55.037702518195	0.0668	0.3568	6.47	6.8268	T	T	-0.11	72.89	26	329.99192240755	18.161997258874	0.47937366786668	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-11-29 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	67	147	31.99	25.03	28.51	63.159865929927	0.1224	0.9624	6.53	7.4924	T	T	-0.010000000000002	71.99	26	335.46232308906	21.187755350847	0.48388065428277	16	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-29 10:15:01	FORECAST	2023	67	147	31.99	25.03	28.51	63.159865929927	0.1224	0.9624	6.53	7.4924	T	T	-0.010000000000002	71.99	26	335.46232308906	21.187755350847	0.48388065428277	16	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-29 07:00:16	FORECAST	2023	67	147	31.96	24.97	28.465	135.62889334591	0.106	0.946	6.68	7.626	T	T	-0.039999999999999	76.96	26	379.58427324154	51.48259491126	0.48252831581663	16	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-29 03:00:12	FORECAST	2023	67	147	26.17	24.12	25.145	138.47517484361	0.0598	0.9698	6.66	7.6298	T	T	-5.83	76.17	26	381.15690722481	52.780769370808	0.24238461551929	16	1	3	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L