Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 3, 2022
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DAY 64
OF WATER YEAR 2023,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/04/2022 07:00:20 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.41°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.62°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.51°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.183
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 70
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.07 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.57 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.94 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.51 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 67 in
SWE DAY: 29
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 340.78 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 22.74 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 144
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2022-12-04 07:00:20 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 26.40992 | 20.62004 | 23.51498 | 66.728869166667 | 0.07000000000005 | 0.57000000000005 | 5.94 | 6.5100000000001 | T | T | -5.59008 | 70.40992 | 29 | 340.77859551915 | 22.739770315197 | 0.18280699684729 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-04 03:00:12 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 26.40992 | 20.62004 | 23.51498 | 66.728869166667 | 0.07000000000005 | 0.57000000000005 | 5.94 | 6.5100000000001 | T | T | -5.59008 | 70.40992 | 29 | 340.77859551915 | 22.739770315197 | 0.18280699684729 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 33.89 | 19.35 | 26.62 | 66.000892095053 | 0.0033 | 0.5033 | 5.94 | 6.4433 | T | F | 1.89 | 77.89 | 29 | 340.30272233809 | 22.460283256689 | 0.51017929452326 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 07:00:19 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 32.8 | 19.39 | 26.095 | 65.814169995053 | 0.0028 | 0.5028 | 5.94 | 6.4428 | T | F | 0.8 | 76.8 | 29 | 340.18052163628 | 22.388698679976 | 0.45619620085182 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 03:00:23 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 31.84 | 20.62 | 26.23 | 65.825545267311 | 0.0103 | 0.5103 | 5.94 | 6.4503 | T | F | -0.16 | 75.84 | 29 | 340.18796786696 | 22.393058478221 | 0.4092805376658 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 34.34 | 20.03 | 27.185 | 68.473584598145 | 0.1334 | 0.7334 | 5.94 | 6.6734 | T | T | 2.34 | 87.34 | 29 | 341.91552780956 | 23.412181818887 | 0.53246801905759 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 31.96 | 24.23 | 28.095 | 68.378737916764 | 0.1311 | 0.7311 | 5.94 | 6.6711 | T | T | -0.039999999999999 | 84.96 | 29 | 341.85385101527 | 23.37553488441 | 0.41508862900091 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 32.09 | 23.85 | 27.97 | 68.237119143443 | 0.0852 | 0.6852 | 5.94 | 6.6252 | T | T | 0.090000000000003 | 85.09 | 29 | 341.76173165657 | 23.320836001719 | 0.42140169463523 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 34.54 | 25.1 | 29.82 | 68.456686775086 | 0.0663 | 0.6663 | 5.94 | 6.6063 | T | T | 2.54 | 87.54 | 29 | 341.90454059977 | 23.405652042818 | 0.54234568965729 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 07:00:25 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 34.32 | 24.57 | 29.445 | 68.483767179712 | 0.1584 | 0.7884 | 5.94 | 6.7284 | T | T | 2.32 | 86.32 | 29 | 341.92214844417 | 23.416116807638 | 0.53147904990873 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 03:00:13 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 34.43 | 24.64 | 29.535 | 68.629829170763 | 0.1885 | 0.8585 | 5.94 | 6.7985 | T | T | 2.43 | 87.43 | 29 | 342.01709796211 | 23.47257500662 | 0.53691581305111 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 23:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 34.62 | 24.48 | 29.55 | 65.107501440837 | 0.2064 | 0.5164 | 5.94 | 6.4564 | T | F | 2.62 | 81.62 | 29 | 339.71751570912 | 22.118158643509 | 0.54628979098937 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 32.78 | 23.41 | 28.095 | 65.290014767784 | 0.0963 | 0.3963 | 5.94 | 6.3363 | T | F | 0.78 | 78.78 | 29 | 339.8371772006 | 22.187974318069 | 0.45521016582233 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 34.61 | 25.33 | 29.97 | 64.756754156948 | 0.0854 | 0.3854 | 5.94 | 6.3254 | T | F | 2.61 | 87.61 | 29 | 339.48739893406 | 21.984102032154 | 0.54579701980069 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 35.32 | 21.18 | 28.25 | 65.846580161785 | 0.153 | 0.453 | 5.94 | 6.393 | T | F | 3.32 | 88.32 | 29 | 340.20173670045 | 22.401120926824 | 0.58056414680128 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 36.48 | 22.85 | 29.665 | 66.102888301796 | 0.2269 | 0.6369 | 5.94 | 6.5769 | T | T | 4.48 | 92.48 | 29 | 340.36944951498 | 22.499403702632 | 0.63592296485974 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 03:00:25 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 36.45 | 22.9 | 29.675 | 66.876215505108 | 0.2364 | 0.7664 | 5.94 | 6.7064 | T | T | 4.45 | 92.45 | 29 | 340.87480769346 | 22.79641709957 | 0.63452104228932 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 23:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 36.34 | 22.02 | 29.18 | 52.285992556457 | 0.2848 | 0.9548 | 5 | 5.9548 | T | F | 4.34 | 83.34 | 29 | 331.1709708638 | 17.3156029175 | 0.62936540218218 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 33.04 | 22.19 | 27.615 | 50.797116569005 | 0.4359 | 1.2259 | 5 | 6.2259 | T | T | 1.04 | 89.04 | 29 | 330.16035995741 | 16.771194291221 | 0.46804794023226 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 32.59 | 21.86 | 27.225 | 51.267762190114 | 0.4046 | 1.1946 | 5 | 6.1946 | T | T | 0.59 | 89.59 | 29 | 330.48023536593 | 16.942982115274 | 0.44585743970175 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 11:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 32.21 | 21.24 | 26.725 | 54.659214571843 | 0.3579 | 1.2779 | 5 | 6.2779 | T | T | 0.21 | 85.21 | 29 | 332.77397287305 | 18.189163987193 | 0.42724716445768 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 07:00:17 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 31.16 | 21.56 | 26.36 | 56.09884823461 | 0.3349 | 1.3749 | 5.04 | 6.4149 | T | T | -0.84 | 86.16 | 29 | 333.74168075877 | 18.72252389845 | 0.37677816556828 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 03:00:17 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 32.12 | 20.44 | 26.28 | 56.89484143881 | 0.3033 | 1.4133 | 5.43 | 6.8433 | T | T | 0.12 | 97.12 | 29 | 334.27522251005 | 19.018535781632 | 0.42286149189366 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 31.63 | 20.21 | 25.92 | 54.86514835781 | 0.3072 | 1.3172 | 5.52 | 6.8372 | T | T | -0.37 | 96.63 | 29 | 332.91261656216 | 18.26530009787 | 0.39916485658953 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 19:00:10 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 34.12 | 19.85 | 26.985 | 54.604457422208 | 0.2691 | 1.1791 | 5.44 | 6.6191 | T | T | 2.12 | 99.12 | 29 | 332.73709574295 | 18.168928577285 | 0.52157967692519 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 35.12 | 19.85 | 27.485 | 52.679160665147 | 0.2541 | 1.0341 | 5.44 | 6.4741 | T | T | 3.12 | 103.12 | 29 | 331.4372060479 | 17.459833827805 | 0.57082195238059 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 33.27 | 18.37 | 25.82 | 56.830524312839 | 0.2515 | 1.0215 | 5.51 | 6.5315 | T | T | 1.27 | 101.27 | 29 | 334.23215179843 | 18.994588428913 | 0.47943263437191 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 10:15:01 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 33.27 | 18.37 | 25.82 | 56.830524312839 | 0.2515 | 1.0215 | 5.51 | 6.5315 | T | T | 1.27 | 101.27 | 29 | 334.23215179843 | 18.994588428913 | 0.47943263437191 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 07:00:14 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 33.24 | 20.37 | 26.805 | 128.91994850503 | 0.2886 | 1.1886 | 5.49 | 6.6786 | T | T | 1.24 | 109.24 | 29 | 378.34933568402 | 48.776776873298 | 0.47794652266468 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 03:00:11 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 36.17 | 21.24 | 28.705 | 130.4588613726 | 0.2915 | 1.2115 | 5.45 | 6.6615 | T | T | 4.17 | 111.17 | 29 | 379.20584873748 | 49.470763252123 | 0.62135202113019 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 23:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 31.74 | 20.21 | 25.975 | 49.586170371224 | 0.3525 | 1.3925 | 5.13 | 6.5225 | T | T | -0.26 | 118.74 | 29 | 329.33557769391 | 16.330490064836 | 0.40445556755445 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 31.74 | 21.2 | 26.47 | 52.908806162004 | 0.3666 | 1.4466 | 5.19 | 6.6366 | T | T | -0.26 | 118.74 | 29 | 331.59258835729 | 17.544167982153 | 0.40445556755445 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 15:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 30.08 | 21.2 | 25.64 | 50.882125129467 | 0.3811 | 1.2211 | 5.21 | 6.4311 | T | T | -1.92 | 112.08 | 29 | 330.21816452646 | 16.802201967458 | 0.3269854113553 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 31.11 | 21.25 | 26.18 | 57.826216511982 | 0.7343 | 1.6343 | 5.28 | 6.9143 | T | T | -0.89 | 99.11 | 29 | 334.89814061105 | 19.365892388435 | 0.3744193462751 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 27.54 | 19.87 | 23.705 | 55.819403028097 | 0.7325 | 1.5225 | 5.22 | 6.7425 | T | T | -4.46 | 98.54 | 29 | 333.55411704992 | 18.618791691291 | 0.22239193727808 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 03:00:25 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 31.48 | 22.71 | 27.095 | 55.978598615578 | 0.7854 | 1.5454 | 5.33 | 6.8754 | T | T | -0.52 | 100.48 | 29 | 333.66098549523 | 18.677874380716 | 0.39198016978902 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 29.32 | 19.8 | 24.56 | 51.706100501311 | 0.7375 | 1.7375 | 4.82 | 6.5575 | T | T | -2.68 | 97.32 | 29 | 330.777809312 | 17.10323065189 | 0.29364655122471 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 28.23 | 18.47 | 23.35 | 52.789640017883 | 0.7465 | 1.7065 | 4.88 | 6.5865 | T | T | -3.77 | 97.23 | 29 | 331.51196969541 | 17.50039754184 | 0.24878452641732 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 29.42 | 21.76 | 25.59 | 51.451560883585 | 0.7465 | 1.6865 | 4.55 | 6.2365 | T | T | -2.58 | 100.42 | 29 | 330.60505079321 | 17.010145899308 | 0.29794259347442 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 29.95 | 16.54 | 23.245 | 59.296353449729 | 1.0355 | 2.0955 | 4.35 | 6.4455 | T | T | -2.05 | 93.95 | 29 | 335.87839708111 | 19.91636414945 | 0.32117391072587 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 28.26 | 20.81 | 24.535 | 59.853609034664 | 1.0355 | 2.0755 | 4.6 | 6.6755 | T | T | -3.74 | 97.26 | 29 | 336.24900775672 | 20.125716648564 | 0.24996861898945 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 03:00:16 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 26.99 | 19.21 | 23.1 | 63.6287661266 | 0.9647 | 2.0447 | 4.89 | 6.9347 | T | T | -5.01 | 96.99 | 29 | 338.74596204462 | 21.553987595267 | 0.20254800701506 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 30.65 | 20.84 | 25.745 | 72.859812947823 | 1.2371 | 3.0171 | 5.42 | 8.4371 | T | T | -1.35 | 108.65 | 29 | 344.75162807589 | 25.118539135067 | 0.35294853627271 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 33.01 | 20.48 | 26.745 | 69.852261827994 | 1.3124 | 3.2224 | 5.16 | 8.3824 | T | T | 1.01 | 123.01 | 29 | 342.81037679208 | 23.946080197034 | 0.46656470495996 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 33.11 | 23.43 | 28.27 | 66.270974407407 | 1.1314 | 3.0814 | 5.19 | 8.2714 | T | T | 1.11 | 117.11 | 29 | 340.47937580797 | 22.56390000042 | 0.47151051252709 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 11:00:14 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 27.83 | 24.46 | 26.145 | 48.529915697201 | 0.205 | 0.395 | 5.21 | 5.605 | T | F | -4.17 | 108.83 | 29 | 328.61408231855 | 15.947613711832 | 0.23328554062838 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 07:00:19 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 28.05 | 24.51 | 26.28 | 47.968818632006 | 0.1572 | 0.3472 | 5.23 | 5.5772 | T | F | -3.95 | 104.05 | 29 | 328.23002604083 | 15.744806588731 | 0.24174303533484 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 03:00:38 | FORECAST | 2023 | 64 | 144 | 27.34 | 25.38 | 26.36 | 50.859477404435 | 0.0773 | 0.5573 | 5.03 | 5.5873 | T | F | -4.66 | 106.34 | 29 | 330.20276562665 | 16.793940097271 | 0.21505099973936 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |