Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, December 2, 2022
[
Thursday, December 1, 2022 |
Index |
Today |
Saturday, December 3, 2022 ]
DAY 63
OF WATER YEAR 2023,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/03/2022 07:00:17 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 22.99°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 13.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.44°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.086
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 94
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.95 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.49 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.44 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 66 in
SWE DAY: 30
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 341.16 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 22.45 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 143
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2022-12-03 07:00:17 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 22.98992 | 13.89992 | 18.44492 | 65.815157083333 | 0.039999999999964 | 1.95 | 4.49 | 6.44 | T | T | -9.01008 | 93.98992 | 30 | 341.15864097795 | 22.4534095463 | 0.085819778190133 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 03:00:21 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 22.98992 | 13.89992 | 18.44492 | 65.815157083333 | 0.039999999999964 | 1.95 | 4.49 | 6.44 | T | T | -9.01008 | 93.98992 | 30 | 341.15864097795 | 22.4534095463 | 0.085819778190133 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 31.99 | 20.62 | 26.305 | 68.272530085587 | 0.1438 | 2.0538 | 4.49 | 6.5438 | T | T | -0.010000000000002 | 102.99 | 30 | 342.75615973506 | 23.400830227532 | 0.38674799503695 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 07:00:23 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 31.43 | 15.14 | 23.285 | 68.048720630442 | 0.1731 | 2.0831 | 4.49 | 6.5731 | T | T | -0.57 | 102.43 | 30 | 342.61107534663 | 23.314245351158 | 0.36132808578621 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 03:00:12 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 31.82 | 12.44 | 22.13 | 68.112678589599 | 0.2109 | 2.1209 | 4.49 | 6.6109 | T | T | -0.18 | 102.82 | 30 | 342.65254448503 | 23.338982630417 | 0.3789740300876 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 26.42 | 13.06 | 19.74 | 65.102795211703 | 0.2214 | 1.7614 | 4.49 | 6.2514 | T | T | -5.58 | 97.42 | 30 | 340.69367285054 | 22.180110413512 | 0.16968909979921 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 24.65 | 18.33 | 21.49 | 65.090843105639 | 0.2087 | 1.7487 | 4.49 | 6.2387 | T | T | -7.35 | 95.65 | 30 | 340.68586437247 | 22.175530146177 | 0.12146514460952 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 31.82 | 19.48 | 25.65 | 64.618050020695 | 0.2101 | 1.7501 | 4.49 | 6.2401 | T | T | -0.18 | 102.82 | 30 | 340.37679180357 | 21.994484558647 | 0.3789740300876 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 31.58 | 16.27 | 23.925 | 65.237699623872 | 0.2117 | 1.7517 | 4.49 | 6.2417 | T | T | -0.42 | 102.58 | 30 | 340.78179135412 | 22.231820141645 | 0.36808248954874 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 07:00:16 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 31.99 | 15.6 | 23.795 | 65.263732744189 | 0.2649 | 1.8649 | 4.49 | 6.3549 | T | T | -0.010000000000002 | 105.99 | 30 | 340.79879250874 | 22.241801313833 | 0.38674799503695 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 03:00:24 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 32.02 | 20.08 | 26.05 | 65.978592973032 | 0.2472 | 1.9772 | 4.49 | 6.4672 | T | T | 0.020000000000003 | 106.02 | 30 | 341.26519917 | 22.516197671898 | 0.38812469937398 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 23:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 25.15 | 19.2 | 22.175 | 51.087971223733 | 0.349 | 1.179 | 4.49 | 5.669 | T | F | -6.85 | 97.15 | 30 | 331.3728152141 | 16.929164847985 | 0.13399391078 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 33.46 | 19.56 | 26.51 | 50.5396029019 | 0.4459 | 1.2959 | 4.49 | 5.7859 | T | F | 1.46 | 106.46 | 30 | 331.00132269124 | 16.728675408819 | 0.45554929776042 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 32.86 | 13.61 | 23.235 | 50.318815670417 | 0.4836 | 1.3036 | 4.49 | 5.7936 | T | F | 0.86 | 106.86 | 30 | 330.85160405117 | 16.648060878512 | 0.42718260422832 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 11:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 33 | 13.82 | 23.41 | 54.026488318331 | 0.5921 | 1.4321 | 4.49 | 5.9221 | T | F | 1 | 103 | 30 | 333.35472420324 | 18.009985113027 | 0.43377344071192 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 07:00:16 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 32.79 | 20.15 | 26.47 | 54.459329064312 | 0.6531 | 1.5931 | 4.49 | 6.0831 | T | T | 0.79 | 104.79 | 30 | 333.64540955725 | 18.170105149876 | 0.42389467220576 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 03:00:16 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 32.82 | 19.91 | 26.365 | 55.790754142746 | 0.71 | 2.05 | 4.49 | 6.54 | T | T | 0.82 | 114.82 | 30 | 334.53756153798 | 18.664102847279 | 0.42530315132611 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 32.79 | 17.96 | 25.375 | 53.734558699429 | 0.6218 | 2.3018 | 4.23 | 6.5318 | T | T | 0.79 | 114.79 | 30 | 333.15849081065 | 17.902124480678 | 0.42389467220576 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 19:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 32.97 | 18.7 | 25.835 | 53.943001290197 | 0.4951 | 2.1151 | 4.23 | 6.3451 | T | T | 0.97 | 114.97 | 30 | 333.29861956359 | 17.97912786514 | 0.4323595027703 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 33.64 | 17.77 | 25.705 | 52.62280665431 | 0.3562 | 1.9862 | 4.23 | 6.2162 | T | T | 1.64 | 117.64 | 30 | 332.40984391255 | 17.4923389462 | 0.4641104946473 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 33.52 | 13.34 | 23.43 | 56.443322444124 | 0.4237 | 2.0537 | 4.23 | 6.2837 | T | T | 1.52 | 117.52 | 30 | 334.97372938584 | 18.907030218036 | 0.45840093622257 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 10:15:00 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 33.52 | 13.34 | 23.43 | 56.443322444124 | 0.4237 | 2.0537 | 4.23 | 6.2837 | T | T | 1.52 | 117.52 | 30 | 334.97372938584 | 18.907030218036 | 0.45840093622257 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 07:00:14 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 34.46 | 21.88 | 28.17 | 128.4319711912 | 0.5503 | 2.1603 | 4.23 | 6.3903 | T | T | 2.46 | 126.46 | 30 | 378.91078430822 | 48.66425893431 | 0.50326257888941 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 03:00:11 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 30.74 | 14.72 | 22.73 | 129.01234115269 | 0.5685 | 2.1885 | 4.18 | 6.3685 | T | T | -1.26 | 124.74 | 30 | 379.23336718089 | 48.925784543225 | 0.33083939854697 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 23:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 35.07 | 15.33 | 25.2 | 47.789458916094 | 0.6647 | 2.4047 | 3.77 | 6.1747 | T | T | 3.07 | 137.07 | 30 | 329.13041092518 | 15.728964250946 | 0.53238842587956 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 35.07 | 15.4 | 25.235 | 50.707368384372 | 0.674 | 2.524 | 3.75 | 6.274 | T | T | 3.07 | 137.07 | 30 | 331.11503048153 | 16.78997182823 | 0.53238842587956 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 15:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 33.73 | 13.76 | 23.745 | 48.365671872242 | 0.4677 | 2.3077 | 3.74 | 6.0477 | T | T | 1.73 | 131.73 | 30 | 329.52348924344 | 15.937624954944 | 0.46839758413101 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 32.87 | 11.4 | 22.135 | 52.850960513984 | 0.4977 | 2.4877 | 3.69 | 6.1777 | T | T | 0.87 | 117.87 | 30 | 332.56365375471 | 17.576308532976 | 0.42765272753278 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 32.88 | 11.41 | 22.145 | 50.246926257329 | 0.4977 | 2.3977 | 3.61 | 6.0077 | T | T | 0.88 | 120.88 | 30 | 330.80283679965 | 16.621825746387 | 0.42812295356499 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 03:00:23 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 31.83 | 11.41 | 21.62 | 50.972113647077 | 0.5203 | 2.3903 | 3.7 | 6.0903 | T | T | -0.17 | 118.83 | 30 | 331.29437052028 | 16.886774304797 | 0.3794300043105 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 31.82 | 9.32 | 20.57 | 46.752421832196 | 0.7848 | 2.6048 | 3.22 | 5.8248 | T | T | -0.18 | 117.82 | 30 | 328.42151865918 | 15.354501379124 | 0.3789740300876 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 30.18 | 11.48 | 20.83 | 47.298222726478 | 0.8011 | 2.7511 | 3.09 | 5.8411 | T | T | -1.82 | 119.18 | 30 | 328.7948470745 | 15.551411908248 | 0.3068830318021 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 32.73 | 11.49 | 22.11 | 45.97857110258 | 0.8011 | 2.5111 | 2.98 | 5.4911 | T | T | 0.73 | 120.73 | 30 | 327.89131600851 | 15.075974187016 | 0.42108064564879 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 31.58 | 12.8 | 22.19 | 50.150692185497 | 0.9696 | 2.4096 | 3 | 5.4096 | T | F | -0.42 | 113.58 | 30 | 330.73754104683 | 16.586716615228 | 0.36808248954874 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 29.77 | 14.47 | 22.12 | 50.91809762298 | 0.9696 | 2.5096 | 3.13 | 5.6396 | T | T | -2.23 | 118.77 | 30 | 331.25778953156 | 16.867016465741 | 0.28984444469891 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 03:00:15 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 27.17 | 17.03 | 22.1 | 54.577599850139 | 1.0121 | 2.5121 | 3.46 | 5.9721 | T | T | -4.83 | 120.17 | 30 | 333.72478177374 | 18.213897599722 | 0.19338971665902 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 28.93 | 19.17 | 24.05 | 61.078578767611 | 1.5347 | 3.0947 | 4.11 | 7.2047 | T | T | -3.07 | 127.93 | 30 | 338.05115360438 | 20.647684012907 | 0.25639186923163 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 34.57 | 18.25 | 26.41 | 57.455381923556 | 1.649 | 3.199 | 3.87 | 7.069 | T | T | 2.57 | 139.57 | 30 | 335.64874784481 | 19.284826999587 | 0.50852059346117 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 34.46 | 18.62 | 26.54 | 56.045264469367 | 1.649 | 3.129 | 4.01 | 7.139 | T | T | 2.46 | 134.46 | 30 | 334.7077588085 | 18.758784862371 | 0.50326257888941 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 11:00:13 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 26.74 | 15.64 | 21.19 | 46.598998842061 | 0.0272 | 1.4272 | 3.97 | 5.3972 | T | F | -5.26 | 130.74 | 30 | 328.31648394105 | 15.299219454998 | 0.17956456941221 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 07:00:19 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 26.85 | 12.69 | 19.77 | 46.455468708433 | 0.0272 | 1.4272 | 3.99 | 5.4172 | T | F | -5.15 | 125.85 | 30 | 328.21818489433 | 15.247529617898 | 0.18304085652857 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 03:00:37 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 28.44 | 20.92 | 24.68 | 50.042760593315 | 0.1792 | 1.3692 | 4.14 | 5.5092 | T | F | -3.56 | 129.44 | 30 | 330.66428942176 | 16.547353872292 | 0.23784937011924 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 23.67 | 13.57 | 18.62 | 53.740589035718 | 0.1285 | 1.5285 | 4.53 | 6.0585 | T | T | -8.33 | 98.67 | 30 | 333.16254583964 | 17.904351458061 | 0.099343029692717 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 27.77 | 3.76 | 15.765 | 54.886884295746 | 0.0475 | 1.7875 | 4.37 | 6.1575 | T | T | -4.23 | 103.77 | 30 | 333.93223170477 | 18.3284997642 | 0.2137298277003 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 26.47 | 5.12 | 15.795 | 53.257832367177 | 0.0054 | 1.8854 | 4.37 | 6.2554 | T | T | -5.53 | 108.47 | 30 | 332.83772515308 | 17.726215771675 | 0.17120880310206 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 13.11 | 6.61 | 9.86 | 53.208282326373 | 0 | 1.37 | 4.51 | 5.88 | T | F | -18.89 | 83.11 | 30 | 332.8043630835 | 17.707948510396 | 0.0052825704504117 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 07:00:31 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 19.08 | 13.9 | 16.49 | 52.983765775891 | 0 | 1.37 | 4.6 | 5.97 | T | F | -12.92 | 112.08 | 30 | 332.65314334021 | 17.625216231352 | 0.033102784465304 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 03:00:31 | FORECAST | 2023 | 63 | 143 | 14.16 | 12.23 | 13.195 | 51.127697337492 | 0 | 0.89 | 4.74 | 5.63 | T | F | -17.84 | 87.16 | 30 | 331.39970760403 | 16.943703948112 | 0.0075479974609327 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |