Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 1, 2022
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Friday, December 2, 2022 ]
DAY 62
OF WATER YEAR 2023,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/02/2022 07:00:21 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 21.54°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 14.27°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 17.91°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.071
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 111
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.46 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.98 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.42 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.40 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 68 in
SWE DAY: 31
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 23.24 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 142
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
|
UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2022-12-02 07:00:21 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 21.54002 | 14.27 | 17.90501 | 67.689012173913 | 0.46000000000004 | 2.98 | 3.42 | 6.4 | T | T | -10.45998 | 110.54002 | 31 | 343.34686373553 | 23.240810039269 | 0.071417179313344 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 03:00:11 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 21.54002 | 14.27 | 17.90501 | 67.689012173913 | 0.46000000000004 | 2.98 | 3.42 | 6.4 | T | T | -10.45998 | 110.54002 | 31 | 343.34686373553 | 23.240810039269 | 0.071417179313344 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 21.58 | 13.07 | 17.325 | 64.614415704892 | 0.0898 | 2.6098 | 3.42 | 6.0298 | T | T | -10.42 | 110.58 | 31 | 341.351154797 | 22.056205417398 | 0.072005765400564 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 24.55 | 12.92 | 18.735 | 64.432810202192 | 0.1548 | 2.6748 | 3.42 | 6.0948 | T | T | -7.45 | 113.55 | 31 | 341.23278716663 | 21.986587410272 | 0.12681325127728 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 03:00:23 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 25.49 | 13.42 | 19.455 | 65.185959731359 | 0.2771 | 2.7971 | 3.42 | 6.2171 | T | T | -6.51 | 114.49 | 31 | 341.72332214824 | 22.275562716821 | 0.14903811775921 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 25.19 | 12.65 | 18.92 | 49.104003683449 | 0.3184 | 1.8984 | 3.42 | 5.3184 | T | F | -6.81 | 112.19 | 31 | 331.04230930494 | 16.255502775487 | 0.1416795666171 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 25.6 | 12.99 | 19.295 | 49.018011317563 | 0.3399 | 1.9199 | 3.42 | 5.3399 | T | F | -6.4 | 112.6 | 31 | 330.9840157195 | 16.224178228471 | 0.15179893376155 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 27.23 | 12.73 | 19.98 | 48.838733381532 | 0.3146 | 1.8946 | 3.42 | 5.3146 | T | F | -4.77 | 114.23 | 31 | 330.86244358894 | 16.158902668402 | 0.19664936557138 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 23.5 | 13.35 | 18.425 | 51.897633099546 | 0.3282 | 1.9082 | 3.42 | 5.3282 | T | F | -8.5 | 110.5 | 31 | 332.92918073542 | 17.278236469939 | 0.10483642220171 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 24.34 | 13.52 | 18.93 | 52.053232533211 | 0.3862 | 2.0062 | 3.42 | 5.4262 | T | F | -7.66 | 112.34 | 31 | 333.03388248972 | 17.335490126676 | 0.12218010357149 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 03:00:15 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 25.63 | 14.54 | 20.085 | 53.365137807913 | 0.4018 | 2.4118 | 3.42 | 5.8318 | T | T | -6.37 | 121.63 | 31 | 333.91501092086 | 17.819420573922 | 0.15255772809151 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 25.37 | 14.15 | 19.76 | 50.848310513422 | 0.3864 | 2.4864 | 3.42 | 5.9064 | T | T | -6.63 | 122.37 | 31 | 332.22201750235 | 16.892928305355 | 0.14606470021654 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 19:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 25.74 | 14.1 | 19.92 | 51.81111654794 | 0.4108 | 2.4308 | 3.42 | 5.8508 | T | T | -6.26 | 121.74 | 31 | 332.87094645874 | 17.246415402397 | 0.15536141362615 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 25.82 | 15.32 | 20.57 | 51.052886961735 | 0.416 | 2.436 | 3.42 | 5.856 | T | T | -6.18 | 123.82 | 31 | 332.36003434425 | 16.967939263976 | 0.15742162450571 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 26.09 | 14.35 | 20.22 | 55.23307966979 | 0.3513 | 2.4413 | 3.42 | 5.8613 | T | T | -5.91 | 124.09 | 31 | 335.1645402103 | 18.512169751924 | 0.16450644995955 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 10:15:00 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 26.09 | 14.35 | 20.22 | 55.23307966979 | 0.3513 | 2.4413 | 3.42 | 5.8613 | T | T | -5.91 | 124.09 | 31 | 335.1645402103 | 18.512169751924 | 0.16450644995955 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 07:00:13 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 30.34 | 15.35 | 22.845 | 126.58122724116 | 0.3494 | 2.4194 | 3.42 | 5.8394 | T | T | -1.66 | 132.34 | 31 | 378.71341030129 | 47.938008248622 | 0.30163545549636 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 03:00:11 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 30.85 | 15.7 | 23.275 | 125.44721885339 | 0.3506 | 2.3806 | 3.42 | 5.8006 | T | T | -1.15 | 133.85 | 31 | 378.08115922106 | 47.429229925147 | 0.3209843742465 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 23:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 29.83 | 15.37 | 22.6 | 45.228149794954 | 0.3757 | 2.4357 | 3.07 | 5.5057 | T | F | -2.17 | 141.83 | 31 | 328.40220957161 | 14.853024327498 | 0.28282873929684 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 30.25 | 16.88 | 23.565 | 47.502450702359 | 0.4129 | 2.5329 | 3.07 | 5.6029 | T | T | -1.75 | 142.25 | 31 | 329.95453600991 | 15.67364908083 | 0.29827604330857 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 15:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 26.96 | 12.15 | 19.555 | 46.355328154396 | 0.3743 | 2.5143 | 3.07 | 5.5843 | T | T | -5.04 | 137.96 | 31 | 329.17268717021 | 15.25890793324 | 0.18871277119358 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 22.01 | 10.47 | 16.24 | 49.498827428437 | 0.4002 | 2.6102 | 3.07 | 5.6802 | T | T | -9.99 | 125.01 | 31 | 331.30979401085 | 16.399446319094 | 0.078572560631963 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 28.11 | 10.48 | 19.295 | 46.947995143578 | 0.2942 | 2.4142 | 3.1 | 5.5142 | T | F | -3.89 | 128.11 | 31 | 329.57691798538 | 15.472975545013 | 0.22388323038145 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 03:00:22 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 27.57 | 10.49 | 19.03 | 47.753091623062 | 0.2428 | 2.3728 | 3.2 | 5.5728 | T | T | -4.43 | 126.57 | 31 | 330.12506329132 | 15.76449239442 | 0.20692568828862 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 28.26 | 11.51 | 19.885 | 42.185572102858 | 0.2201 | 2.3501 | 2.69 | 5.0401 | T | F | -3.74 | 126.26 | 31 | 326.31142239012 | 13.765634037225 | 0.22872988268827 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 27.62 | 13.36 | 20.49 | 42.163636769681 | 0.1562 | 2.3462 | 2.69 | 5.0362 | T | F | -4.38 | 128.62 | 31 | 326.29629020829 | 13.757838259637 | 0.20846321792226 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 27.63 | 13.37 | 20.5 | 40.835341258738 | 0.1411 | 2.0011 | 2.69 | 4.6911 | T | F | -4.37 | 127.63 | 31 | 325.37838686473 | 13.286937465839 | 0.20877152872984 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 27.69 | 10.55 | 19.12 | 42.952836043784 | 0.0939 | 1.6939 | 2.75 | 4.4439 | T | F | -4.31 | 121.69 | 31 | 326.84019248667 | 14.038713200399 | 0.21062701754371 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 27.79 | 16.61 | 22.2 | 44.025486557 | 0.0744 | 1.8744 | 2.8 | 4.6744 | T | F | -4.21 | 128.79 | 31 | 327.57769855267 | 14.421767564004 | 0.21374086670783 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 03:00:15 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 27.77 | 16.61 | 22.19 | 45.952890275229 | 0.0711 | 1.8111 | 3.15 | 4.9611 | T | F | -4.23 | 132.77 | 31 | 328.89785576226 | 15.113807077601 | 0.21311596487575 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 30.54 | 13.67 | 22.105 | 48.187700503191 | 0.2533 | 1.9433 | 3.73 | 5.6733 | T | F | -1.46 | 138.54 | 31 | 330.42049870282 | 15.922204031606 | 0.30916097171248 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 30.55 | 13.87 | 22.21 | 46.42611656805 | 0.2579 | 1.8179 | 3.6 | 5.4179 | T | F | -1.45 | 144.55 | 31 | 329.2210006883 | 15.284452554605 | 0.30953939205561 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 25.79 | 16.48 | 21.135 | 45.477790678863 | 0.2989 | 1.7289 | 3.76 | 5.4889 | T | F | -6.21 | 139.79 | 31 | 328.57304067812 | 14.942775966677 | 0.15664695630646 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 11:00:12 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 29.68 | 9.44 | 19.56 | 46.338003165162 | 0.1574 | 1.6674 | 3.7 | 5.3674 | T | F | -2.32 | 143.68 | 31 | 329.1608614376 | 15.252657039143 | 0.27740638813124 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 07:00:19 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 23.34 | 9.44 | 16.39 | 46.185417562432 | 0.1574 | 1.6774 | 3.71 | 5.3874 | T | F | -8.66 | 139.34 | 31 | 329.05668671402 | 15.197620477597 | 0.10174507039275 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 03:00:36 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 32.42 | 17.72 | 25.07 | 48.180822347281 | 0.2996 | 1.5596 | 3.77 | 5.3296 | T | F | 0.42 | 141.42 | 31 | 330.41582565709 | 15.919706196714 | 0.38346421125448 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 18.33 | 7.22 | 12.775 | 51.57563389233 | 0.205 | 1.745 | 4.18 | 5.925 | T | T | -13.67 | 115.33 | 31 | 332.71237828843 | 17.159851814051 | 0.035060095198019 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 17.44 | 4.04 | 10.74 | 54.20129001892 | 0.2593 | 2.0293 | 4.08 | 6.1093 | T | T | -14.56 | 116.44 | 31 | 334.47507431758 | 18.128980507187 | 0.028252063131584 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 17.39 | 3.88 | 10.635 | 53.17741402255 | 0.2593 | 2.2193 | 4.03 | 6.2493 | T | T | -14.61 | 122.39 | 31 | 333.7891080028 | 17.750041592482 | 0.027904671422329 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 20.22 | 6.13 | 13.175 | 53.208282326373 | 0.2148 | 1.8148 | 4.07 | 5.8848 | T | T | -11.78 | 110.22 | 31 | 333.80981493537 | 17.761446876396 | 0.053978295603502 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 07:00:30 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 21.23 | 7.18 | 14.205 | 52.983765775891 | 0.2148 | 1.8948 | 4.08 | 5.9748 | T | T | -10.77 | 133.23 | 31 | 333.65916873669 | 17.678519245323 | 0.066977261676146 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 03:00:31 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 15.8 | 3.56 | 9.68 | 51.127697337492 | 0.1769 | 1.4369 | 4.19 | 5.6269 | T | F | -16.2 | 112.8 | 31 | 332.41048701794 | 16.995382772062 | 0.018573937828956 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-24 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 19.43 | 12.14 | 15.785 | 59.665934814595 | 0.2073 | 2.3973 | 4.3 | 6.6973 | T | T | -12.57 | 126.43 | 31 | 338.10620567818 | 20.173422828405 | 0.045269838151096 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-24 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 23.96 | 11.16 | 17.56 | 64.649066404287 | 0.1832 | 2.7932 | 4.59 | 7.3832 | T | T | -8.04 | 136.96 | 31 | 341.37373337955 | 22.069493157934 | 0.11410024898446 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-24 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 24.2 | 14.89 | 19.545 | 65.283684073531 | 0.1756 | 2.7956 | 4.44 | 7.2356 | T | T | -7.8 | 127.2 | 31 | 341.78690238817 | 22.31310815598 | 0.11915794474104 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-24 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 22.53 | 17.12 | 19.825 | 60.555082865395 | 0.6049 | 2.3949 | 4.37 | 6.7649 | T | T | -9.47 | 125.53 | 31 | 338.69227130362 | 20.50953855466 | 0.087106363018392 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-24 07:00:32 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 22.42 | 19.91 | 21.165 | 62.051945247735 | 0.5555 | 2.3455 | 4.81 | 7.1555 | T | T | -9.58 | 122.42 | 31 | 339.67591587308 | 21.07755133373 | 0.085245924122554 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-24 03:00:39 | FORECAST | 2023 | 62 | 142 | 17.23 | 15.86 | 16.545 | 59.655235455948 | 0.1118 | 1.6718 | 4.88 | 6.5518 | T | T | -14.77 | 115.23 | 31 | 338.09914532972 | 20.169384122099 | 0.026816785147082 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |