Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 8, 2022
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Wednesday, December 7, 2022 |
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Today |
Friday, December 9, 2022 ]
DAY 69
OF WATER YEAR 2023,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/09/2022 07:00:16 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.81°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.12°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.295
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -8
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.80 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.87 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.97 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 66 in
SWE DAY: 24
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 335.41 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 22.16 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 149
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2022-12-09 07:00:16 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 26.81006 | 21.43004 | 24.12005 | 66.073130434783 | 0.80000000000007 | 0.87000000000007 | 7.1 | 7.9700000000001 | T | T | -5.18994 | -8.18994 | 24 | 335.4097494162 | 22.161572122274 | 0.29468867387312 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-09 03:00:09 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 26.81006 | 21.43004 | 24.12005 | 66.073130434783 | 0.80000000000007 | 0.87000000000007 | 7.1 | 7.9700000000001 | T | T | -5.18994 | -8.18994 | 24 | 335.4097494162 | 22.161572122274 | 0.29468867387312 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-08 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 26 | 20.18 | 23.09 | 64.826931215013 | 0.3676 | 0.4376 | 7.1 | 7.5376 | T | T | -6 | -9 | 24 | 334.57756055869 | 21.689636504425 | 0.26949124514603 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-08 07:00:25 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 26.86 | 20.37 | 23.615 | 65.686977169157 | 0.5141 | 0.5841 | 7.1 | 7.6841 | T | T | -5.14 | -8.14 | 24 | 335.15216498633 | 22.015132609651 | 0.29627696124917 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-08 03:00:23 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 28.83 | 21.38 | 25.105 | 66.496930788208 | 0.7616 | 0.8316 | 7.1 | 7.9316 | T | T | -3.17 | -6.17 | 24 | 335.69215578121 | 22.322498049128 | 0.36178374862558 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-07 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 28.94 | 21.78 | 25.36 | 68.481370948549 | 0.8214 | 0.9014 | 7.1 | 8.0014 | T | T | -3.06 | -6.06 | 24 | 337.01048336158 | 23.078939924634 | 0.36558716263923 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-07 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 27.92 | 21.2 | 24.56 | 67.980932372979 | 0.7017 | 0.7817 | 7.1 | 7.8817 | T | T | -4.08 | -7.08 | 24 | 336.6786521963 | 22.887728686382 | 0.33087155893512 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-07 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 29.59 | 21.68 | 25.635 | 68.065522708019 | 0.786 | 0.866 | 7.1 | 7.966 | T | T | -2.41 | -5.41 | 24 | 336.73477204252 | 22.92002827304 | 0.38832077710371 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-07 11:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 29.17 | 21.19 | 25.18 | 68.058679711654 | 0.7499 | 0.8299 | 7.1 | 7.9299 | T | T | -2.83 | -5.83 | 24 | 336.7302326352 | 22.91741505215 | 0.37358218279309 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-07 07:00:15 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 30.26 | 20.56 | 25.41 | 68.435442491823 | 0.7304 | 0.8104 | 7.1 | 7.9104 | T | T | -1.74 | -5.74 | 24 | 336.98004666397 | 23.061378604364 | 0.41216037172422 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-07 03:00:11 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 33.3 | 20.61 | 26.955 | 68.113806050388 | 0.7514 | 0.8414 | 7.1 | 7.9414 | T | T | 1.3 | 0.3 | 24 | 336.76679930107 | 22.938468451803 | 0.52312272452532 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-06 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 31.2 | 20.45 | 25.825 | 67.970391669749 | 0.7018 | 0.7718 | 7.1 | 7.8718 | T | T | -0.8 | 5.2 | 24 | 336.67165832265 | 22.883704480294 | 0.44614101217843 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-06 19:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 33.42 | 20.76 | 27.09 | 67.548514073898 | 0.7083 | 0.7983 | 7.1 | 7.8983 | T | T | 1.42 | 7.42 | 24 | 336.39158407271 | 22.722751651077 | 0.52752292131449 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-06 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 33.23 | 20.75 | 26.99 | 67.876951894723 | 0.7614 | 0.8414 | 7.1 | 7.9414 | T | T | 1.23 | 7.23 | 24 | 336.60965180633 | 22.848037142957 | 0.52055460590303 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-06 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 33.84 | 20.44 | 27.14 | 68.944101548405 | 0.8547 | 0.9647 | 7.1 | 8.0647 | T | T | 1.84 | 8.84 | 24 | 337.31693600276 | 23.256013089771 | 0.54289367813349 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-06 07:00:18 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 30.5 | 18.78 | 24.64 | 69.083563083339 | 0.7898 | 0.9498 | 7.1 | 8.0498 | T | T | -1.5 | -1.5 | 24 | 337.40922659341 | 23.309431590266 | 0.42078441109265 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-06 03:00:26 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 33.43 | 18.73 | 26.08 | 68.578894542137 | 0.7669 | 0.9369 | 7.1 | 8.0369 | T | T | 1.43 | 6.43 | 24 | 337.07510028143 | 23.116237754981 | 0.52788946025368 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-05 23:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 33.8 | 19.34 | 26.57 | 68.811058359216 | 0.8705 | 1.1005 | 6.76 | 7.8605 | T | T | 1.8 | 14.8 | 24 | 337.22886236547 | 23.205074928642 | 0.54143219300511 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-05 19:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 33.73 | 19.15 | 26.44 | 68.744289139841 | 0.7341 | 1.0141 | 6.76 | 7.7741 | T | T | 1.73 | 15.73 | 24 | 337.18465040327 | 23.179519100838 | 0.53887325771628 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-05 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 34.26 | 18.66 | 26.46 | 68.568683961438 | 0.7711 | 1.0311 | 6.76 | 7.7911 | T | T | 2.26 | 18.26 | 24 | 337.06833573255 | 23.112332186253 | 0.55820052814193 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-05 11:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 34.52 | 18.47 | 26.495 | 69.583033209405 | 1.0363 | 1.3363 | 6.76 | 8.0963 | T | T | 2.52 | 20.52 | 24 | 337.73948974722 | 23.500938131208 | 0.56763430454417 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-05 07:00:21 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 33.41 | 18.98 | 26.195 | 69.821122747579 | 0.8462 | 1.2062 | 6.78 | 7.9862 | T | T | 1.41 | 17.41 | 24 | 337.8967735831 | 23.592332104357 | 0.52715635906679 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-05 03:00:33 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 34.14 | 21.44 | 27.79 | 69.414463880389 | 0.861 | 1.201 | 6.82 | 8.021 | T | T | 2.14 | 14.14 | 24 | 337.62807398677 | 23.43627174676 | 0.55383498297532 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-04 23:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 34.54 | 22.91 | 28.725 | 71.109740000896 | 0.6521 | 0.9621 | 6.81 | 7.7721 | T | T | 2.54 | 9.54 | 24 | 338.746395775 | 24.088168129801 | 0.56835845593752 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-04 19:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 35.12 | 20.95 | 28.035 | 70.300858391279 | 0.6004 | 0.9804 | 6.85 | 7.8304 | T | T | 3.12 | 14.12 | 24 | 338.21340198413 | 23.776692478919 | 0.58924935583933 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-04 15:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 36.74 | 20.13 | 28.435 | 69.719555155966 | 0.611 | 0.941 | 6.84 | 7.781 | T | T | 4.74 | 24.74 | 24 | 337.8296888603 | 23.553335625818 | 0.64610192298506 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-04 11:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 34.69 | 20.96 | 27.825 | 71.923177545221 | 0.7709 | 1.0409 | 6.85 | 7.8909 | T | T | 2.69 | 20.69 | 24 | 339.28128839493 | 24.402188343 | 0.57378210772583 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-04 07:00:27 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 34.8 | 20.57 | 27.685 | 72.07134708011 | 0.8654 | 1.1054 | 6.77 | 7.8754 | T | T | 2.8 | 17.8 | 24 | 339.37860139397 | 24.459472972627 | 0.57775066332403 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-04 03:00:15 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 34.71 | 22 | 28.355 | 72.538866517614 | 0.9465 | 1.1965 | 6.75 | 7.9465 | T | T | 2.71 | 26.71 | 24 | 339.68541318682 | 24.640394845139 | 0.57450423152546 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 23:00:10 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 35.87 | 23.81 | 29.84 | 70.243477459682 | 0.8412 | 1.1212 | 6.65 | 7.7712 | T | T | 3.87 | 29.87 | 24 | 338.17555053617 | 23.754626661503 | 0.61588453020382 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 35.83 | 23.8 | 29.815 | 70.32081439922 | 0.7137 | 0.9537 | 6.67 | 7.6237 | T | T | 3.83 | 27.83 | 24 | 338.22656471237 | 23.784367482025 | 0.61447650821109 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 34.69 | 24.83 | 29.76 | 70.816694094168 | 0.7577 | 0.9877 | 6.67 | 7.6577 | T | T | 2.69 | 31.69 | 24 | 338.5534264534 | 23.975234435683 | 0.57378210772583 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 33.17 | 24.59 | 28.88 | 71.152183679265 | 0.6702 | 0.8702 | 6.66 | 7.5302 | T | T | 1.17 | 29.17 | 24 | 338.77433282693 | 24.104533555122 | 0.51835267797606 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 07:00:24 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 32.6 | 24.8 | 28.7 | 71.078454752853 | 0.6702 | 0.8802 | 6.73 | 7.6102 | T | T | 0.6 | 20.6 | 24 | 338.72580143739 | 24.076106551091 | 0.49741592748469 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-03 03:00:29 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 33.55 | 20.17 | 26.86 | 69.78391149312 | 0.5845 | 0.7545 | 6.75 | 7.5045 | T | T | 1.55 | 23.55 | 24 | 337.87219780431 | 23.578043547562 | 0.53228599690348 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 36.05 | 20.7 | 28.375 | 71.666571490344 | 0.2588 | 0.4188 | 6.93 | 7.3488 | T | T | 4.05 | 33.05 | 24 | 339.11267110691 | 24.303042487165 | 0.62220147847896 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 19:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 36.1 | 20.95 | 28.525 | 71.113196274233 | 0.2588 | 0.4188 | 6.83 | 7.2488 | T | T | 4.1 | 30.1 | 24 | 338.74867085748 | 24.089500718323 | 0.62395048515751 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 35.37 | 23.86 | 29.615 | 71.912033659138 | 0.3403 | 0.4903 | 6.81 | 7.3003 | T | T | 3.37 | 32.37 | 24 | 339.27396796697 | 24.39788100411 | 0.59818017717172 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 11:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 34.51 | 18.59 | 26.55 | 72.717610793321 | 0.544 | 0.754 | 6.79 | 7.544 | T | T | 2.51 | 35.51 | 24 | 339.80261870195 | 24.70963457332 | 0.56727214348193 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 07:00:31 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 29.6 | 18.53 | 24.065 | 74.36963285792 | 0.544 | 0.764 | 6.82 | 7.584 | T | T | -2.4 | 23.6 | 24 | 340.8833613691 | 25.351370432394 | 0.38867375818476 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-02 03:00:16 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 35.53 | 22.73 | 29.13 | 72.300530815606 | 0.5884 | 0.8284 | 6.87 | 7.6984 | T | T | 3.53 | 35.53 | 24 | 339.5290498053 | 24.548130528241 | 0.60386943265626 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 23:00:10 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 31.2 | 18.45 | 24.825 | 75.673883248697 | 0.8476 | 1.0076 | 6.59 | 7.5976 | T | T | -0.8 | 35.2 | 24 | 341.73339628605 | 25.860293132731 | 0.44614101217843 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 19:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 31.93 | 18.03 | 24.98 | 71.300648967891 | 0.4654 | 0.6054 | 6.44 | 7.0454 | T | T | -0.07 | 29.93 | 24 | 338.87203116875 | 24.1617957394 | 0.4728194712822 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 15:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 29.05 | 24.39 | 26.72 | 65.405176702543 | 0.0379 | 0.1479 | 6.35 | 6.4979 | T | F | -2.95 | 35.05 | 24 | 334.96402980853 | 21.908381558623 | 0.36940383230489 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 11:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 31.83 | 24.92 | 28.375 | 67.817171187245 | 0.1434 | 0.4434 | 6.42 | 6.8634 | T | T | -0.17 | 39.83 | 24 | 336.56997368442 | 22.825223521843 | 0.46915495099281 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 07:00:19 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 30.93 | 28.15 | 29.54 | 66.631182505275 | 0.0048 | 0.3048 | 6.59 | 6.8948 | T | T | -1.07 | 44.93 | 24 | 335.78155324553 | 22.373521956207 | 0.43632860928629 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 03:00:29 | FORECAST | 2023 | 69 | 149 | 28.74 | 27.85 | 28.295 | 68.064081687131 | 0.0037 | 0.3337 | 6.72 | 7.0537 | T | T | -3.26 | 37.74 | 24 | 336.73381612562 | 22.919477967594 | 0.358681963433 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | WET | L |