Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 5, 2022

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DAY 66 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/06/2022 07:00:14 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.96°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.19°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.08°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.261 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 32 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.36 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.66 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.44 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.10 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 65 in SWE DAY: 27 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 337.53 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 21.86 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 146 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 3 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-12-06 07:00:14	OBSERVATION	2023	66	146	27.96008	24.18998	26.07503	64.775132916667	0.36000000000001	0.66000000000001	6.44	7.1	T	T	-4.03992	31.96008	27	337.5281362439	21.863429888313	0.26134230574876	16	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-12-06 03:00:21	OBSERVATION	2023	66	146	27.96008	24.18998	26.07503	64.775132916667	0.36000000000001	0.66000000000001	6.44	7.1	T	T	-4.03992	31.96008	27	337.5281362439	21.863429888313	0.26134230574876	16	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-12-05 11:00:03	FORECAST	2023	66	146	35.5	25.18	30.34	64.985086213449	0.0219	0.3219	6.44	6.7619	T	T	3.5	39.5	27	337.66695069224	21.943315902168	0.57117467284752	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-05 07:00:19	FORECAST	2023	66	146	35.35	25.03	30.19	64.985727059067	0.041	0.341	6.44	6.781	T	T	3.35	39.35	27	337.66737428568	21.943559822081	0.56477269609363	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-05 03:00:28	FORECAST	2023	66	146	31.9	25.08	28.49	65.075014648779	0.0837	0.3837	6.44	6.8237	T	T	-0.1	35.9	27	337.72638587534	21.977549508117	0.41626314864872	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-04 23:00:01	FORECAST	2023	66	146	28.38	24.18	26.28	67.314980174622	0.1058	0.3658	6.44	6.8058	T	T	-3.62	35.38	27	339.2024438814	22.83340578506	0.27638351170385	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-04 19:00:02	FORECAST	2023	66	146	33.3	24.08	28.69	67.194889611273	0.1453	0.4053	6.44	6.8453	T	T	1.3	40.3	27	339.1235213216	22.787367579791	0.47628735086847	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-12-04 15:00:03	FORECAST	2023	66	146	35.76	25.27	30.515	67.158841257711	0.1445	0.4045	6.44	6.8445	T	T	3.76	42.76	27	339.09982593318	22.773551380364	0.58222626084505	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-04 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	66	146	35.74	22.91	29.325	67.891580237479	0.1468	0.4068	6.44	6.8468	T	T	3.74	42.74	27	339.58104573926	23.054693813934	0.58137832348119	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-04 07:00:24	FORECAST	2023	66	146	34.75	25.13	29.94	67.335964118675	0.0687	0.3287	6.44	6.7687	T	T	2.75	40.75	27	339.21623189137	22.841452019109	0.53901123463784	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-04 03:00:14	FORECAST	2023	66	146	36.34	24.86	30.6	67.414731876431	0.0562	0.3062	6.44	6.7462	T	T	4.34	45.34	27	339.26798160298	22.871660014023	0.60663489993098	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-03 23:00:06	FORECAST	2023	66	146	35.92	24.35	30.135	66.633330951412	0.0819	0.2119	6.44	6.6519	T	T	3.92	48.92	27	338.7541497977	22.572317374634	0.58899568579803	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-03 19:00:04	FORECAST	2023	66	146	34.31	24.49	29.4	66.646332405139	0.0726	0.2326	6.44	6.6726	T	T	2.31	48.31	27	338.76270760926	22.577292017791	0.52000859367416	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-03 15:00:04	FORECAST	2023	66	146	35.93	24.49	30.21	66.711423847048	0.0603	0.2303	6.44	6.6703	T	T	3.93	48.93	27	338.80554782256	22.602200502522	0.58941791852367	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-03 11:00:06	FORECAST	2023	66	146	35.85	24.98	30.415	66.595911379644	0.0682	0.2182	6.44	6.6582	T	T	3.85	50.85	27	338.72951792522	22.558000957418	0.58603719602079	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-03 07:00:21	FORECAST	2023	66	146	34.4	24.58	29.49	66.526089049121	0.0923	0.2923	6.44	6.7323	T	T	2.4	47.4	27	338.68355029606	22.531292026468	0.52390062032935	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-03 03:00:26	FORECAST	2023	66	146	34.65	24.42	29.535	66.64837257111	0.0923	0.3123	6.44	6.7523	T	T	2.65	42.65	27	338.76405046081	22.578072648811	0.53469869912527	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-02 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	66	146	36.35	22.2	29.275	69.408461190251	0.0511	0.3911	6.54	6.9311	T	T	4.35	60.35	27	340.57440218771	23.638745176639	0.60705238027377	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-02 19:00:05	FORECAST	2023	66	146	35.27	22.31	28.79	68.831817455734	0.0379	0.2879	6.54	6.8279	T	T	3.27	57.27	27	340.19722764404	23.416393472141	0.56135124297701	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-02 15:00:04	FORECAST	2023	66	146	36.67	22.03	29.35	68.952233102752	0.0084	0.2684	6.54	6.8084	T	T	4.67	58.67	27	340.27603546453	23.462792516631	0.6203443072758	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-02 11:00:07	FORECAST	2023	66	146	36.53	22.24	29.385	69.19464672872	0.0088	0.2488	6.54	6.7888	T	T	4.53	61.53	27	340.43461359964	23.556252822256	0.61454554284188	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-02 07:00:28	FORECAST	2023	66	146	27.55	23.21	25.38	68.854599285925	0.0095	0.2495	6.57	6.8195	T	T	-4.45	51.55	27	340.21213940222	23.425170530747	0.24706977745298	16	1	3	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-12-02 03:00:14	FORECAST	2023	66	146	36.31	19.98	28.145	68.866704945172	0.0095	0.2595	6.61	6.8695	T	T	4.31	61.31	27	340.22006276325	23.429834678744	0.60538172506336	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-01 23:00:09	FORECAST	2023	66	146	36.33	23.62	29.975	65.62903950887	0.0203	0.3403	6.25	6.5903	T	T	4.33	56.33	27	338.09225071964	22.188669680122	0.60621729697762	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-01 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	66	146	36.21	24.73	30.47	65.715165456144	0.0044	0.2044	6.24	6.4444	T	F	4.21	51.21	27	338.14908002226	22.221522742506	0.60119666429587	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-01 15:00:08	FORECAST	2023	66	146	36.21	24.73	30.47	64.823976928516	0.0044	0.1144	6.24	6.3544	T	F	4.21	61.21	27	337.56043696043	21.882009977503	0.60119666429587	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-01 11:00:05	FORECAST	2023	66	146	35.17	22.49	28.83	65.869171254993	0.0081	0.1781	6.24	6.4181	T	F	3.17	63.17	27	338.25066814736	22.280291187314	0.55706800063013	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-01 07:00:18	FORECAST	2023	66	146	36.14	24.59	30.365	66.02649570922	0.0076	0.2376	6.35	6.5876	T	F	4.14	69.14	27	338.35440436041	22.340355627698	0.59826015376088	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-12-01 03:00:27	FORECAST	2023	66	146	33.3	23.61	28.455	66.846619392466	0.0091	0.2491	6.47	6.7191	T	T	1.3	66.3	27	338.89450472401	22.653951971484	0.47628735086847	16	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-11-30 23:00:10	FORECAST	2023	66	146	36.13	19.25	27.69	52.189861967569	0.0061	0.2861	5.67	5.9561	T	F	4.13	59.13	27	329.0704750084	17.174142668291	0.59784019489815	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-30 19:00:07	FORECAST	2023	66	146	36.14	23.15	29.645	50.659247235672	0.0077	0.4477	5.79	6.2377	T	F	4.14	66.14	27	328.02329568013	16.61741323492	0.59826015376088	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-30 15:00:07	FORECAST	2023	66	146	35.61	24.77	30.19	51.121692856781	0.0077	0.4077	5.79	6.1977	T	F	3.61	67.61	27	328.34010995919	16.785302253895	0.57585768284006	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-30 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	66	146	34.61	22.05	28.33	54.88081562216	0.1111	0.4711	5.92	6.3911	T	F	2.61	59.61	27	330.9016655588	18.160153296598	0.53297251452749	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-30 07:00:18	FORECAST	2023	66	146	34.54	21.94	28.24	56.387163242642	0.1111	0.4411	6.08	6.5211	T	T	2.54	58.54	27	331.92128218227	18.716099522119	0.5299502182335	16	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-30 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	66	146	29.92	21.52	25.72	58.883597470003	0.3055	0.6055	6.54	7.1455	T	T	-2.08	66.92	27	333.60250216142	19.643715452259	0.3349006892144	16	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-29 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	66	146	28.03	20.77	24.4	56.779836112681	0.2858	0.6558	6.53	7.1858	T	T	-3.97	64.03	27	332.18643420172	18.86149129283	0.26381734318125	16	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-29 19:00:10	FORECAST	2023	66	146	31.18	19.86	25.52	56.448628008231	0.2919	0.5619	6.35	6.9119	T	T	-0.82	71.18	27	331.96280367265	18.738844817087	0.38605021379097	16	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-29 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	66	146	32.89	20.74	26.815	54.823101177821	0.2919	0.5419	6.22	6.7619	T	T	0.89	78.89	27	330.86252215206	18.138909527891	0.45859069833508	16	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-29 11:00:06	FORECAST	2023	66	146	34.65	23.01	28.83	62.696227463597	0.7998	1.0898	6.28	7.3698	T	T	2.65	77.65	27	336.14962713556	21.075313484694	0.53469869912527	16	3	3	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2022-11-29 10:15:01	FORECAST	2023	66	146	34.65	23.01	28.83	62.696227463597	0.7998	1.0898	6.28	7.3698	T	T	2.65	77.65	27	336.14962713556	21.075313484694	0.53469869912527	16	3	3	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2022-11-29 07:00:16	FORECAST	2023	66	146	33.73	23.01	28.37	135.22450318367	0.7998	1.1298	6.39	7.5198	T	T	1.73	82.73	27	380.18879127759	51.410840416511	0.49489703085134	16	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2022-11-29 03:00:12	FORECAST	2023	66	146	34.95	20.02	27.485	137.96791621589	0.8503	1.2003	6.37	7.5703	T	T	2.95	87.95	27	381.70058814542	52.662434764803	0.54762205480019	16	3	3	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2022-11-28 23:00:09	FORECAST	2023	66	146	34.28	19.22	26.75	53.006580049901	0.4398	0.9498	6.17	7.1198	T	T	2.28	95.28	27	329.62757412029	17.472430394262	0.51871080903914	16	3	3	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2022-11-28 19:00:07	FORECAST	2023	66	146	35.44	22.86	29.15	55.931589349506	0.2597	0.8297	6.27	7.0997	T	T	3.44	95.44	27	331.61332472065	18.5476603011	0.56861603054957	16	3	3	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2022-11-28 15:00:09	FORECAST	2023	66	146	34.72	22.35	28.535	54.453728031605	0.2242	0.8042	6.05	6.8542	T	T	2.72	84.72	27	330.61186794527	18.003048741113	0.53771793229071	16	3	3	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2022-11-28 11:00:04	FORECAST	2023	66	146	30.66	24.64	27.65	64.783150289868	0.4281	1.4681	6.18	7.6481	T	T	-1.34	62.66	27	337.53343843585	21.866479470046	0.36464053020859	16	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2022-11-28 07:00:10	FORECAST	2023	66	146	28.97	26.55	27.76	58.755302532219	0.1785	1.0985	6.01	7.1085	T	T	-3.03	63.97	27	333.51636172809	19.595854732779	0.29820823182999	16	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2022-11-28 03:00:27	FORECAST	2023	66	146	31.63	30.18	30.905	59.276455370436	0.1478	1.2478	6.09	7.3378	T	T	-0.37	69.63	27	333.8661022763	19.790399111282	0.4048648307436	16	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L