Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 9, 2022

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DAY 40 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/10/2022 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.81°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.76°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.29°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.225 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -20 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.24 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 16.89 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 17.13 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 31 in SWE DAY: 53 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 340.97 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 10.61 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 120 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-10 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2023	40	120	31.80992	20.76008	26.285	31.115423333333	0	0.24	16.89	17.13	T	T	-0.19008	-20.19008	53	340.96926967736	10.609403169668	0.22467548410173	16	1	5	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-10 03:00:14	OBSERVATION	2023	40	120	31.80992	20.76008	26.285	31.115423333333	0	0.24	16.89	17.13	T	T	-0.19008	-20.19008	53	340.96926967736	10.609403169668	0.22467548410173	16	1	5	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-09 11:00:03	FORECAST	2023	40	120	38.24	21.06	29.65	32.888108485851	0.003	0.243	16.89	17.133	T	T	6.24	-13.76	53	342.12353064665	11.251795791469	0.4781740428186	16	2	5	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-09 07:00:23	FORECAST	2023	40	120	35.75	20.57	28.16	32.739303319827	0.0027	0.2427	16.89	17.1327	T	T	3.75	-16.25	53	342.02683779017	11.197720385933	0.37203349872504	16	2	5	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-09 03:00:17	FORECAST	2023	40	120	37.77	21.25	29.51	32.722987702534	0.003	0.243	16.89	17.133	T	T	5.77	-14.23	53	342.01623375983	11.19179301139	0.45777999372873	16	2	5	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-08 23:00:01	FORECAST	2023	40	120	37.9	21.2	29.55	33.910838666667	0	0.24	16.89	17.13	T	T	5.9	-6.1	53	342.7871077743	11.624198308748	0.46341209265917	16	2	5	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-08 19:00:01	FORECAST	2023	40	120	37.47	19.79	28.63	33.917398666667	0	0.24	16.89	17.13	T	T	5.47	-6.53	53	342.79135853194	11.626591166816	0.44481700747403	16	2	5	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-08 15:00:02	FORECAST	2023	40	120	37.68	21.48	29.58	33.921725513278	0.0004	0.2404	16.89	17.1304	T	T	5.68	-6.32	53	342.79416220908	11.62816947801	0.45388573988754	16	2	5	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-08 11:00:04	FORECAST	2023	40	120	37.59	21.43	29.51	33.90310571439	0.0004	0.2404	16.89	17.1304	T	T	5.59	-6.41	53	342.7820968745	11.621377667337	0.44999591433084	16	2	5	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-08 07:00:12	FORECAST	2023	40	120	37.52	22.55	30.035	33.937059752819	0.0002	0.2402	16.89	17.1302	T	T	5.52	-11.48	53	342.8040981248	11.633763161573	0.44697379268925	16	2	5	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-08 03:00:12	FORECAST	2023	40	120	37.44	22.36	29.9	33.962316810849	0.0002	0.2502	16.89	17.1402	T	T	5.44	-13.56	53	342.82046274875	11.642977165115	0.4435237158449	16	2	5	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-07 23:00:06	FORECAST	2023	40	120	38.06	21.06	29.56	27.958694414842	0.0002	0.2102	16.89	17.1002	T	T	6.06	-13.94	53	338.90089445498	9.4752265449834	0.47035386781412	16	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-07 19:00:01	FORECAST	2023	40	120	38.56	21.46	30.01	27.91311711652	0.0002	0.2102	16.89	17.1002	T	T	6.56	-5.44	53	338.87090934145	9.4589433798296	0.49209541866214	16	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-07 15:00:03	FORECAST	2023	40	120	38.88	21.46	30.17	27.922480793346	0.0002	0.2202	16.89	17.1102	T	T	6.88	-5.12	53	338.87706994851	9.4622884769428	0.50602643012617	16	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2022-11-07 11:00:03	FORECAST	2023	40	120	38.91	20.6	29.755	28.986305115095	0.0002	0.2102	16.89	17.1002	T	T	6.91	-5.09	53	339.57603461012	9.843054548983	0.50733234878401	16	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2022-11-07 07:00:08	FORECAST	2023	40	120	39.78	21.81	30.795	29.102385750011	0.0002	0.2202	16.89	17.1102	T	T	7.78	-4.22	53	339.65218886391	9.8846890211531	0.54511314980321	16	3	5	1	2	2	2	18	WET	L
2022-11-07 03:00:30	FORECAST	2023	40	120	36.19	22.75	29.47	29.578660207528	0.0002	0.2902	16.89	17.1802	T	T	4.19	-5.81	53	339.96441193574	10.055691823299	0.39033171055096	16	2	5	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-06 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	40	120	35.71	22.4	29.055	21.119616446833	0.019	0.419	16.3	16.719	T	T	3.71	0.71	53	334.36244903393	7.0616066778203	0.37038356910552	16	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-06 19:00:06	FORECAST	2023	40	120	35.34	23.39	29.365	21.190405461972	0.019	0.409	16.3	16.709	T	T	3.34	-2.66	53	334.40982990592	7.0862798861758	0.35523815593014	16	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-06 15:00:04	FORECAST	2023	40	120	34.61	20.81	27.71	21.103328724566	0.043	0.393	16.3	16.693	T	T	2.61	-4.39	53	334.35154604525	7.0559305857596	0.32603664279347	16	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-06 11:00:05	FORECAST	2023	40	120	34.11	19.92	27.015	22.658727694313	0.029	0.409	16.3	16.709	T	T	2.11	-0.89	53	335.39069640518	7.5995264610512	0.30662082413246	16	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-06 07:00:05	FORECAST	2023	40	120	31.81	20.72	26.265	24.553490733994	0.0281	0.4181	16.65	17.0681	T	T	-0.19	-1.19	53	336.65103917995	8.2659581710943	0.22467810105239	16	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2022-11-06 03:00:13	FORECAST	2023	40	120	34.18	20.72	27.45	26.120071656304	0.0303	0.4303	16.91	17.3403	T	T	2.18	-0.82	53	337.68851349648	8.8204481700386	0.30930824926935	16	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-06 00:00:10	FORECAST	2023	40	120	33.96	20.36	27.16	30.399121504744	0.0111	0.3011	16.52	16.8211	T	T	1.96	-12.04	53	340.50138269012	10.35094290493	0.30089704930023	16	2	5	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-05 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	40	120	33.03	20.69	26.86	28.911764341616	0.0126	0.3326	17.16	17.4926	T	T	1.03	-12.97	53	339.52712058253	9.8163280978696	0.2665360164722	16	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-05 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	40	120	33.93	20.46	27.195	28.549201523495	0.0093	0.2793	17.13	17.4093	T	T	1.93	-15.07	53	339.28907293499	9.6864321179406	0.299758095763	16	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-05 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	40	120	31.05	18.84	24.945	31.07996565968	0.0166	0.2666	17.11	17.3766	T	T	-0.95	-20.95	53	340.9461288137	10.596593975331	0.20060681614747	16	1	5	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-05 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	40	120	30.31	20.68	25.495	33.525956311245	0.0166	0.2666	17.56	17.8266	T	T	-1.69	-26.69	53	342.53758716317	11.483900182192	0.17872084285951	16	1	5	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-05 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	40	120	32.78	20.68	26.73	33.508660757665	0.0166	0.2866	17.56	17.8466	T	T	0.78	-14.22	53	342.52636866565	11.477599888172	0.25764916401602	16	2	5	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-05 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	40	120	32.02	14.53	23.275	28.392238516643	0.0116	0.4216	9.52	9.9416	T	T	0.020000000000003	-8.98	53	339.18594781334	9.6302483318101	0.23160681440185	16	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2022-11-04 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	40	120	31.68	16.5	24.09	28.263141523833	0.0147	0.3147	13.39	13.7047	T	T	-0.32	-4.32	53	339.10109991944	9.5840623779104	0.22044838759103	16	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2022-11-04 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	40	120	31.65	18.38	25.015	27.68916167013	0.0147	0.2547	13.65	13.9047	T	T	-0.35	-2.35	53	338.72351954623	9.3789702941908	0.21947880904481	16	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2022-11-04 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	40	120	31.71	19.58	25.645	26.952365012993	0.0076	0.1876	13.62	13.8076	T	T	-0.29	-2.29	53	338.23802607067	9.1163147399309	0.2214204118352	16	1	5	1	2	2	2	14	WET	L
2022-11-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	40	120	34.02	21.72	27.87	26.541184694626	0.0019	0.1619	14.7	14.8619	T	T	2.02	-13.98	53	337.96669395748	8.9700364449574	0.30318078466797	16	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-04 04:00:17	FORECAST	2023	40	120	34.03	21.72	27.875	27.057604500147	0.0019	0.1919	15.49	15.6819	T	T	2.03	-17.97	53	338.30742659473	9.1537885482628	0.30356215889578	16	2	5	1	2	2	2	16	WET	L
2022-11-04 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	40	120	31.21	18.17	24.69	143.30818199428	0.0027	0.1927	14.91	15.1027	T	T	-0.79	-4.79	53	404.67855593435	57.993748143022	0.20554183955639	16	1	5	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-03 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	40	120	30.93	16.2	23.565	143.13394172486	0.0054	0.2054	15.5	15.7054	T	T	-1.07	2.93	53	404.59302293912	57.910994167653	0.19695256946363	16	1	5	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-03 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	40	120	30.93	16.2	23.565	143.75640087203	0.0054	0.1454	15.52	15.6654	T	T	-1.07	-3.07	53	404.89840872903	58.206737957697	0.19695256946363	16	1	5	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-03 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	40	120	32.14	18.36	25.25	145.07073809076	0.0386	0.1886	15.41	15.5986	T	T	0.14	-4.86	53	405.54165412478	58.83222709043	0.23561884933604	16	1	5	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-03 08:00:09	FORECAST	2023	40	120	32.2	18.23	25.215	142.18963890496	0.0389	0.1789	14.82	14.9989	T	T	0.2	4.2	53	404.12881403056	57.462930138097	0.2376391293419	16	1	5	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-03 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	40	120	32.05	18.21	25.13	142.77077870221	0.0341	0.1741	14.82	14.9941	T	T	0.049999999999997	-3.95	53	404.41462772979	57.738591319546	0.23260624475077	16	1	5	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-03 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	40	120	31.12	17.03	24.075	23.081811208544	0.0062	0.5262	14.37	14.8962	T	T	-0.88	-13.88	53	335.67264581316	7.7479326385319	0.20275709434583	16	1	5	1	3	2	2	21	WET	L
2022-11-02 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	40	120	30.57	16.24	23.405	25.713744946128	0.0101	0.5201	14.56	15.0801	T	T	-1.43	-6.43	53	337.41981843605	8.6763271510335	0.18623347923935	16	1	5	1	3	2	2	21	WET	L
2022-11-02 16:00:10	FORECAST	2023	40	120	30.55	14.66	22.605	25.321332422136	0.0043	0.5143	14.23	14.7443	T	T	-1.45	-1.45	53	337.16006116274	8.5373419881695	0.18564874523445	16	1	5	1	3	2	2	21	WET	L
2022-11-02 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	40	120	30.13	27.18	28.655	28.167695612587	0.4885	1.2485	13.7	14.9485	T	T	-1.87	7.13	53	339.03835101956	9.5499290725125	0.17363295095496	16	1	5	1	4	2	2	28	WET	L
2022-11-02 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	40	120	28.64	24.21	26.425	29.053130722977	0.3138	1.1038	13.99	15.0938	T	T	-3.36	0.64	53	339.61987803537	9.8670207126832	0.13509120357242	16	1	5	1	4	2	2	28	WET	L
2022-11-02 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	40	120	22.98	21.61	22.295	27.698048286819	0.1176	0.9076	13.74	14.6476	T	T	-9.02	-5.02	53	338.72936961337	9.382142435715	0.04255422845911	16	1	5	1	3	2	2	21	WET	L