Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, November 8, 2022
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Wednesday, November 9, 2022 ]
DAY 39
OF WATER YEAR 2023,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/09/2022 07:00:20 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.85°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.00°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.93°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.096
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -5
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -23
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.18 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 16.13 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 17.31 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 33 in
SWE DAY: 54
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.03 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 11.25 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 119
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 14.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2022-11-09 07:00:20 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 26.85002 | 23 | 24.92501 | 32.79521 | 0 | 1.18 | 16.13 | 17.31 | T | T | -5.14998 | -23.14998 | 54 | 343.03350510858 | 11.249855837072 | 0.095547884828967 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-09 03:00:16 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 26.85002 | 23 | 24.92501 | 32.79521 | 0 | 1.18 | 16.13 | 17.31 | T | T | -5.14998 | -23.14998 | 54 | 343.03350510858 | 11.249855837072 | 0.095547884828967 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-08 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 35.06 | 19.93 | 27.495 | 33.979134284777 | 0.0033 | 1.1833 | 16.13 | 17.3133 | T | T | 3.06 | -14.94 | 54 | 343.79878016367 | 11.681984918124 | 0.31317911215593 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-08 07:00:11 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 29.86 | 19.92 | 24.89 | 34.024480960197 | 0.0021 | 1.1821 | 16.13 | 17.3121 | T | T | -2.14 | -20.14 | 54 | 343.82804599788 | 11.698570804637 | 0.15712252471621 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-08 03:00:11 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 27.99 | 21.59 | 24.79 | 34.047320639216 | 0.008 | 1.188 | 16.13 | 17.318 | T | T | -4.01 | -22.01 | 54 | 343.84278499192 | 11.706925550101 | 0.11637375165601 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-07 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 28.78 | 18.5 | 23.64 | 28.046798684016 | 0.0087 | 1.1487 | 16.13 | 17.2787 | T | T | -3.22 | -23.22 | 54 | 339.94095723269 | 9.5342555919568 | 0.13257186916351 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-07 19:00:01 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 36.73 | 18.11 | 27.42 | 28.01125369185 | 0.0121 | 1.1521 | 16.13 | 17.2821 | T | T | 4.73 | -15.27 | 54 | 339.91766653484 | 9.5215199916491 | 0.37445820776905 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-07 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 37.04 | 21.07 | 29.055 | 28.028299813669 | 0.0185 | 1.1585 | 16.13 | 17.2885 | T | T | 5.04 | -14.96 | 54 | 339.92883619267 | 9.5276273361198 | 0.3862493920295 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-07 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 36.92 | 18.97 | 27.945 | 29.092330348867 | 0.0104 | 1.1504 | 16.13 | 17.2804 | T | T | 4.92 | -15.08 | 54 | 340.6250974545 | 9.9095778602613 | 0.38167192278107 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-07 07:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 36.86 | 18.28 | 27.57 | 29.230638928776 | 0.0242 | 1.1642 | 16.13 | 17.2942 | T | T | 4.86 | -15.14 | 54 | 340.71546322975 | 9.9593306831194 | 0.37938933181955 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-07 03:00:28 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 33.56 | 17.98 | 25.77 | 29.632751559567 | 0.0224 | 1.2324 | 16.13 | 17.3624 | T | T | 1.56 | -13.44 | 54 | 340.97800869214 | 10.10411661885 | 0.26216643000375 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 32.98 | 20.49 | 26.735 | 21.079540899049 | 0.0279 | 0.7479 | 16.13 | 16.8779 | T | T | 0.98 | -6.02 | 54 | 335.33526579368 | 7.0687134501913 | 0.24364790779032 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 19:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 33.1 | 20.66 | 26.88 | 21.149663094313 | 0.0069 | 0.7369 | 16.13 | 16.8669 | T | T | 1.1 | -8.9 | 54 | 335.38202713274 | 7.0932168817452 | 0.24742055046979 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 32.16 | 20.11 | 26.135 | 20.916991270044 | 0.0036 | 0.7036 | 16.13 | 16.8336 | T | T | 0.16 | -9.84 | 54 | 335.22683671899 | 7.0119368171356 | 0.21871759099344 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 32.67 | 20.04 | 26.355 | 22.534428748603 | 0.0563 | 0.7263 | 16.13 | 16.8563 | T | T | 0.67 | -6.33 | 54 | 336.30376088926 | 7.5784131376461 | 0.23404713894181 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 21 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 32.77 | 20.14 | 26.455 | 24.406845634318 | 0.0149 | 1.0949 | 16.13 | 17.2249 | T | T | 0.77 | -4.23 | 54 | 337.54494278411 | 8.2384073131765 | 0.23712110274692 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 03:00:13 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 33.04 | 20.27 | 26.655 | 25.984582255701 | 0.0578 | 1.3578 | 16.13 | 17.4878 | T | T | 1.04 | -5.96 | 54 | 338.58621510582 | 8.7980213570636 | 0.24553034245355 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 00:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 32.32 | 19.35 | 25.835 | 30.355590557739 | 0.0564 | 1.4564 | 15.53 | 16.9864 | T | T | 0.32 | -16.68 | 54 | 341.44928753957 | 10.364894768783 | 0.22346371637413 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 31.85 | 20.08 | 25.965 | 28.852885139943 | 0.0684 | 1.6584 | 16 | 17.6584 | T | T | -0.15 | -17.15 | 54 | 340.46857762567 | 9.8235007639931 | 0.20968867747584 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 32.34 | 17.13 | 24.735 | 28.514883778481 | 0.0267 | 1.5767 | 16 | 17.5767 | T | T | 0.34 | -19.66 | 54 | 340.24747181202 | 9.7021171146419 | 0.22406106668242 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 22.66 | 16.06 | 19.36 | 30.981443934112 | 0.0195 | 1.5395 | 16 | 17.5395 | T | T | -9.34 | -23.34 | 54 | 341.85663506265 | 10.591212172697 | 0.042083442053769 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 23.62 | 19.32 | 21.47 | 33.40689480999 | 0.0379 | 1.7279 | 16.26 | 17.9879 | T | T | -8.38 | -28.38 | 54 | 343.42917848149 | 11.472902440212 | 0.051469159649822 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 32.77 | 14.39 | 23.58 | 33.395305977647 | 0.0415 | 1.7115 | 16.3 | 18.0115 | T | T | 0.77 | -18.23 | 54 | 343.42168786124 | 11.468672345486 | 0.23712110274692 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 31.8 | 17.69 | 24.745 | 28.316829098073 | 0.0645 | 1.6445 | 8.47 | 10.1145 | T | T | -0.2 | -12.2 | 54 | 340.11782481034 | 9.6310583183626 | 0.20825316683178 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 31.5 | 17.23 | 24.365 | 28.163802190465 | 0.0494 | 1.5694 | 12.3 | 13.8694 | T | T | -0.5 | -6.5 | 54 | 340.017608408 | 9.5761886644779 | 0.19976237292634 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 31.51 | 17.27 | 24.39 | 27.587664323246 | 0.051 | 1.641 | 12.43 | 14.071 | T | T | -0.49 | -5.49 | 54 | 339.63994958413 | 9.3698729198914 | 0.20004200767827 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 33.21 | 17.96 | 25.585 | 26.906167780245 | 0.0074 | 1.5874 | 12.39 | 13.9774 | T | T | 1.21 | -4.79 | 54 | 339.19251397792 | 9.1263706908929 | 0.25090600148463 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 23.41 | 16.89 | 20.15 | 26.559771361292 | 0.0063 | 1.5463 | 13.49 | 15.0363 | T | T | -8.59 | -18.59 | 54 | 338.9647908312 | 9.002827344005 | 0.049285730265165 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 04:00:17 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 24.3 | 18.82 | 21.56 | 27.07624583348 | 0.0063 | 1.5863 | 14.27 | 15.8563 | T | T | -7.7 | -22.7 | 54 | 339.30425102365 | 9.1870853130613 | 0.059068811107577 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 32.15 | 13.34 | 22.745 | 143.28656000117 | 0.0155 | 1.2455 | 14.03 | 15.2755 | T | T | 0.15 | -6.85 | 54 | 405.40083239085 | 58.088490694897 | 0.21842289352174 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 32.15 | 15.88 | 24.015 | 143.0877132026 | 0.016 | 1.276 | 14.6 | 15.876 | T | T | 0.15 | 1.15 | 54 | 405.30358211203 | 57.993962717232 | 0.21842289352174 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 28.49 | 17.54 | 23.015 | 143.70863868481 | 0.016 | 1.296 | 14.54 | 15.836 | T | T | -3.51 | -4.51 | 54 | 405.60709628539 | 58.28924364807 | 0.1264546231414 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 29.95 | 15.4 | 22.675 | 144.70082958393 | 0.0322 | 1.1522 | 14.59 | 15.7422 | T | T | -2.05 | -8.05 | 54 | 406.09109597305 | 58.761718473948 | 0.15929507541485 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 08:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 30.99 | 16.04 | 23.515 | 141.79688397649 | 0.0276 | 1.0076 | 14.13 | 15.1376 | T | T | -1.01 | 0.98999999999999 | 54 | 404.67107870618 | 57.381097995943 | 0.18581396493038 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 04:00:15 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 30.99 | 16.04 | 23.515 | 142.59333898287 | 0.0276 | 1.0976 | 14.04 | 15.1376 | T | T | -1.01 | -7.01 | 54 | 405.06158485689 | 57.759083878438 | 0.18581396493038 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 00:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 27.18 | 17.91 | 22.545 | 23.023008051666 | 0.131 | 1.431 | 13.64 | 15.071 | T | T | -4.82 | -15.82 | 54 | 336.62819822645 | 7.7501937181852 | 0.1012731087232 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 27.65 | 16.94 | 22.295 | 25.593205694458 | 0.1332 | 1.4732 | 13.78 | 15.2532 | T | T | -4.35 | -8.35 | 54 | 338.32830401578 | 8.6589058769328 | 0.10985186872181 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 16:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 24.02 | 13.62 | 18.82 | 25.273001439984 | 0.1332 | 1.4132 | 13.51 | 14.9232 | T | T | -7.98 | -2.98 | 54 | 338.11710359884 | 8.5452340461365 | 0.05583959348418 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 32.98 | 17.46 | 25.22 | 24.863505183119 | 0.5372 | 1.3072 | 13.33 | 14.6372 | T | T | 0.98 | 5.98 | 54 | 337.84675751283 | 8.4000546065203 | 0.24364790779032 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 29.82 | 19.33 | 24.575 | 26.274889892813 | 0.5353 | 1.3453 | 13.61 | 14.9553 | T | T | -2.18 | 0.82 | 54 | 338.77735778593 | 8.9013377740032 | 0.15616321460761 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 33.84 | 19.29 | 26.565 | 26.257397008059 | 0.5353 | 1.3853 | 13.32 | 14.7053 | T | T | 1.84 | 0.84 | 54 | 338.76584421175 | 8.8951092642383 | 0.27135739390606 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 41.96 | 20.35 | 31.155 | 50.618037551486 | 3.7799 | 5.1799 | 12.43 | 17.6099 | T | T | 9.96 | 7.96 | 54 | 354.31404537701 | 17.934681653912 | 0.58014422294712 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 29.82 | 25.03 | 27.425 | 53.836285025912 | 3.1522 | 4.4622 | 12.76 | 17.2222 | T | T | -2.18 | 18.82 | 54 | 356.29708580644 | 19.181711465377 | 0.15616321460761 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 31.55 | 25.89 | 28.72 | 43.173473126229 | 1.9718 | 3.2818 | 12.23 | 15.5118 | T | T | -0.45 | 13.55 | 54 | 349.66420759947 | 15.09621827 | 0.20116289293246 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 23.09 | 18.02 | 20.555 | 26.447343174958 | 0.2958 | 1.1358 | 11.95 | 13.0858 | T | T | -8.91 | 6.09 | 54 | 338.89083676776 | 8.9627622588456 | 0.046101048838478 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 08:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 19.72 | 15.03 | 17.375 | 28.301296651114 | 0.1954 | 1.2454 | 11.49 | 12.7354 | T | T | -12.28 | 1.72 | 54 | 340.10765448029 | 9.6254876227612 | 0.021587071465838 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 04:00:34 | FORECAST | 2023 | 39 | 119 | 21.2 | 19.07 | 20.135 | 28.586093575578 | 0.1117 | 1.1617 | 11.49 | 12.6517 | T | T | -10.8 | 0.2 | 54 | 340.29406995373 | 9.7276781269116 | 0.030502932009294 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |