MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 5, 2022

[ Friday, November 4, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 6, 2022 ]

DAY 36 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/06/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.14°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.51°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.82°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.291
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 62

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.61 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 9.50 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.26 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.76 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 19 in
SWE DAY: 58
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.50 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 116

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-06 07:00:04OBSERVATION20233611636.1421.5099628.8249819.2228304347830.610000000000019.57.2616.76TT4.1462.1458338.07360337599 6.49873155217260.2909082845883616 25152240WETL
2022-11-06 03:00:09OBSERVATION20233611636.1421.5099628.8249819.2228304347830.610000000000019.57.2616.76TT4.1462.1458338.07360337599 6.49873155217260.2909082845883616 25152240WETL
2022-11-06 00:00:02FORECAST20233611621.8621.8621.8623.030987279170.0068.8967.2616.156TT-10.1447.8657339.595018837367.82120855891280.0176396979964411615152235WETL
2022-11-05 12:00:02FORECAST20233611627.1515.2821.21523.441018002010.48259.37257.2616.6325TT-4.8553.1557339.863897761787.96675574566720.0632438394588121615152235WETL
2022-11-05 08:00:01FORECAST20233611624.3215.7820.0524.7945484176810.74039.63037.2616.8903TT-7.6850.3257340.749494233978.44872983308450.0331358059721641615152235WETL
2022-11-05 04:00:09FORECAST20233611625.1217.1521.13524.7284934810120.77629.66627.2616.9262TT-6.8851.1257340.706346021038.42515465652040.0401172963551615152235WETL
2022-11-05 00:00:03FORECAST20233611633.916.4225.1619.948970076160.98081.84087.269.1008TT1.957.958338.552384135946.75377138034060.213585195928531615152235WETL
2022-11-04 20:00:02FORECAST20233611633.8516.2225.03520.289655734410.95065.67067.2612.9306TT1.8563.8558338.776711335716.87366284383730.212007568449721615152235WETL
2022-11-04 16:00:02FORECAST20233611633.8816.4825.1820.4056562183591.07945.79947.2613.0594TT1.8863.8858338.853048493426.91451881609950.212953327255171615152235WETL
2022-11-04 12:00:03FORECAST20233611633.7916.0824.93519.9486875268531.03745.75747.2613.0174TT1.7963.7958338.552198008516.75367200960120.210123423245181615152235WETL
2022-11-04 08:00:03FORECAST20233611633.2116.124.65519.8139966102751.00486.86487.2614.1248TT1.2158.2158338.463456074776.70631377136750.192421821149041615152235WETL
2022-11-04 04:00:16FORECAST20233611633.216.0324.61519.7330140938791.00437.64437.2614.9043TT1.260.258338.410085632536.67785098929740.192124825097771615152235WETL
2022-11-04 00:00:04FORECAST20233611633.3715.6424.505136.804234930811.04457.40457.2614.6645TT1.3764.3758405.1571464890555.4272134521860.197211768821411615151217.5WETL
2022-11-03 20:00:03FORECAST20233611633.417.2725.335136.644875143611.08327.97327.2615.2332TT1.470.458405.0791134285455.3519848777260.198117832028721615151217.5WETL
2022-11-03 16:00:03FORECAST20233611631.9616.7124.335137.043922411481.12177.91177.2615.1717TT-0.03999999999999968.9658405.2744538211155.5404008048140.157487348504331615151217.5WETL
2022-11-03 12:00:03FORECAST20233611632.2816.0324.155137.904700099121.06997.95997.2615.2199TT0.2868.2858405.6951455000155.9472673718480.166007976119961615151217.5WETL
2022-11-03 08:00:05FORECAST20233611631.9116.8424.375137.347812700160.91067.50067.2614.7606TT-0.0968.9158405.4230805160555.6839733270420.156182365541581615151217.5WETL
2022-11-03 04:00:14FORECAST20233611630.8215.9123.365137.400422946850.96847.40847.2614.6684TT-1.1861.8258405.4487994934755.7088365336960.129499673569271615151217.5WETL
2022-11-03 00:00:05FORECAST20233611632.416.724.5514.8105821676040.88117.23117.0414.2711TT0.458.458335.14532207554.96369733068740.169278417341941615153252.5WETL
2022-11-02 20:00:05FORECAST20233611633.0116.3524.6815.9907002711641.08277.31277.114.4127TT1.0171.0158335.931749970485.37178392534560.186535196990881615152235WETL
2022-11-02 16:00:06FORECAST20233611632.8417.162515.8995682109761.04537.03537.114.1353TT0.8477.8458335.871103737625.3402055239720.181620070347811615152235WETL
2022-11-02 12:00:06FORECAST20233611632.2717.2724.7715.4518445226740.99296.86297.113.9629TT0.2778.2758335.57295021555.18522105274490.165737289952981615152235WETL
2022-11-02 08:00:02FORECAST20233611635.7716.4226.09516.4972695946621.2137.1137.1314.243TT3.7771.7758336.26860411245.54751381826280.277287307893281625152240WETL
2022-11-02 04:00:06FORECAST20233611634.4316.7225.57515.7540120663931.12726.72727.2213.9472TT2.4373.4358335.774210440985.28979096287090.230722853703561615152235WETL
2022-11-02 00:00:04FORECAST20233611632.8617.2725.06518.7703457678881.10555.97557.0813.0555TT0.8667.8658337.774810356086.34014998206650.182194087306451615152235WETL
2022-11-01 20:00:04FORECAST20233611635.516.5826.0416.2393654680831.15166.22167.1713.3916TT3.587.558336.097159389555.45800460411140.267548360102961625152240WETL
2022-11-01 16:00:03FORECAST20233611632.5716.5824.57518.0807844363151.04935.68937.1712.8593TT0.5778.5758337.318805558446.09898860961730.173981658204711615152235WETL
2022-11-01 12:00:04FORECAST20233611632.9716.8624.91516.0175121299490.93355.41357.1712.5835TT0.9783.9758335.949589956555.38107663218040.185371365153261615152235WETL
2022-11-01 08:00:06FORECAST20233611631.5216.7824.1516.1954238144420.72295.01297.1112.1229TT-0.4883.5258336.067937472485.44276267781230.146247942322711615152235WETL
2022-11-01 04:00:31FORECAST20233611631.5216.9624.2417.2865037374180.72294.93297.1912.1229TT-0.4879.5258336.792559375585.82196583638040.146247942322711615152235WETL
2022-11-01 00:00:04FORECAST20233611629.0917.0623.07524.6886689913030.93934.28934.759.0393TT-2.9167.0958341.655908461718.43502963293410.0939331872347441615152235WETL
2022-10-31 20:00:06FORECAST20233611631.618.725.1522.1677508948671.15024.23025.069.2902TT-0.476.658340.009879481917.53725431014870.148250469332861615152235WETL
2022-10-31 16:00:03FORECAST20233611631.618.7125.15523.1036980781131.15024.21025.189.3902TT-0.470.658340.622235006317.86963327627810.148250469332861615152235WETL
2022-10-31 12:00:11FORECAST20233611636.8719.1227.99520.2222444190541.23643.62645.098.7164TT4.8770.8758338.732339219036.84992815632490.318659676986731625152240WETL
2022-10-31 08:00:07FORECAST20233611638.819.22922.2879334490051.08614.09615.599.6861TT6.891.858340.088591956437.57987190429050.396719503076081625152240WETL
2022-10-31 04:00:06FORECAST20233611638.8319.1829.00522.6504750638731.08614.09616.1410.2361TT6.8387.8358340.325889786217.70854308019270.397975995962521625152240WETL
2022-10-31 00:00:08FORECAST20233611643.1417.7230.4325.0981533467682.74165.42165.4710.8916TT11.1492.1458341.922286893428.58161798912870.582962407188321635152245WETL
2022-10-30 20:00:06FORECAST20233611643.217.4630.3325.4709309331782.74165.64166.5612.2016TT11.293.258342.164545978538.71524951840130.585503759831561635152245WETL
2022-10-30 16:00:10FORECAST20233611639.9717.8728.9228.0558913648292.90485.75486.5412.2948TT7.9777.9758343.838153395999.64668587876120.446390936722011625152240WETL
2022-10-30 12:00:04FORECAST20233611643.1324.2333.6841.2435166887946.74213.2326.0219.252TT11.1383.1358352.2074003488514.5262717942050.582538508204741635151222.5WETL
2022-10-30 08:00:04FORECAST20233611641.9525.433.67537.1920634570937.123814.01385.9920.0038TT9.9585.9558349.6659997165113.0048000502440.531978211758941635151222.5WETL
2022-10-30 04:00:10FORECAST20233611641.9825.4533.71537.48193628577.123814.01385.9719.9838TT9.9887.9858349.8487014299413.1130067366320.533273619319631635151222.5WETL
2022-10-30 00:00:04FORECAST20233611644.2320.5532.3923.0841718791422.66796.28796.2712.5579TT12.2381.2358340.609474601537.86268765536590.628488524826441635152245WETL
2022-10-29 20:00:03FORECAST20233611643.5118.8631.18523.9608084213892.91847.02846.2213.2484TT11.5184.5158341.181734953798.17499018810510.598574892444261635152245WETL
2022-10-29 16:00:05FORECAST20233611643.5822.8333.20522.4153795728372.86976.88976.2713.1597TT11.5890.5858340.1720353947.6250852934210.601511795282791635152245WETL
2022-10-29 12:00:11FORECAST20233611633.112328.05523.7381356651.08133.00136.239.2313TT1.1170.1158341.036496909388.09557063035110.189464471567941615152235WETL
2022-10-29 08:00:05FORECAST20233611635.0931.4133.2519.1149478162090.39312.12315.998.1131TT3.0977.0958338.002395509996.46089815192730.253096442923481625152240WETL
2022-10-29 04:00:08FORECAST20233611635.0932.6233.85517.0701867014180.32972.05975.627.6797TT3.0978.0958336.64905570695.74666223377290.253096442923481625152240WETL