Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 5, 2022
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Sunday, November 6, 2022 ]
DAY 36
OF WATER YEAR 2023,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/06/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.14°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.51°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.82°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.291
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 62
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.61 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 9.50 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.26 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.76 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 19 in
SWE DAY: 58
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 6.50 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 116
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2022-11-06 07:00:04 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 36.14 | 21.50996 | 28.82498 | 19.222830434783 | 0.61000000000001 | 9.5 | 7.26 | 16.76 | T | T | 4.14 | 62.14 | 58 | 338.07360337599 | 6.4987315521726 | 0.29090828458836 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2022-11-06 03:00:09 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 36.14 | 21.50996 | 28.82498 | 19.222830434783 | 0.61000000000001 | 9.5 | 7.26 | 16.76 | T | T | 4.14 | 62.14 | 58 | 338.07360337599 | 6.4987315521726 | 0.29090828458836 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2022-11-06 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 21.86 | 21.86 | 21.86 | 23.03098727917 | 0.006 | 8.896 | 7.26 | 16.156 | T | T | -10.14 | 47.86 | 57 | 339.59501883736 | 7.8212085589128 | 0.017639697996441 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-05 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 27.15 | 15.28 | 21.215 | 23.44101800201 | 0.4825 | 9.3725 | 7.26 | 16.6325 | T | T | -4.85 | 53.15 | 57 | 339.86389776178 | 7.9667557456672 | 0.063243839458812 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-05 08:00:01 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 24.32 | 15.78 | 20.05 | 24.794548417681 | 0.7403 | 9.6303 | 7.26 | 16.8903 | T | T | -7.68 | 50.32 | 57 | 340.74949423397 | 8.4487298330845 | 0.033135805972164 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-05 04:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 25.12 | 17.15 | 21.135 | 24.728493481012 | 0.7762 | 9.6662 | 7.26 | 16.9262 | T | T | -6.88 | 51.12 | 57 | 340.70634602103 | 8.4251546565204 | 0.040117296355 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-05 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 33.9 | 16.42 | 25.16 | 19.94897007616 | 0.9808 | 1.8408 | 7.26 | 9.1008 | T | T | 1.9 | 57.9 | 58 | 338.55238413594 | 6.7537713803406 | 0.21358519592853 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-04 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 33.85 | 16.22 | 25.035 | 20.28965573441 | 0.9506 | 5.6706 | 7.26 | 12.9306 | T | T | 1.85 | 63.85 | 58 | 338.77671133571 | 6.8736628438373 | 0.21200756844972 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-04 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 33.88 | 16.48 | 25.18 | 20.405656218359 | 1.0794 | 5.7994 | 7.26 | 13.0594 | T | T | 1.88 | 63.88 | 58 | 338.85304849342 | 6.9145188160995 | 0.21295332725517 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-04 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 33.79 | 16.08 | 24.935 | 19.948687526853 | 1.0374 | 5.7574 | 7.26 | 13.0174 | T | T | 1.79 | 63.79 | 58 | 338.55219800851 | 6.7536720096012 | 0.21012342324518 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-04 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 33.21 | 16.1 | 24.655 | 19.813996610275 | 1.0048 | 6.8648 | 7.26 | 14.1248 | T | T | 1.21 | 58.21 | 58 | 338.46345607477 | 6.7063137713675 | 0.19242182114904 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-04 04:00:16 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 33.2 | 16.03 | 24.615 | 19.733014093879 | 1.0043 | 7.6443 | 7.26 | 14.9043 | T | T | 1.2 | 60.2 | 58 | 338.41008563253 | 6.6778509892974 | 0.19212482509777 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-04 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 33.37 | 15.64 | 24.505 | 136.80423493081 | 1.0445 | 7.4045 | 7.26 | 14.6645 | T | T | 1.37 | 64.37 | 58 | 405.15714648905 | 55.427213452186 | 0.19721176882141 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2022-11-03 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 33.4 | 17.27 | 25.335 | 136.64487514361 | 1.0832 | 7.9732 | 7.26 | 15.2332 | T | T | 1.4 | 70.4 | 58 | 405.07911342854 | 55.351984877726 | 0.19811783202872 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2022-11-03 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 31.96 | 16.71 | 24.335 | 137.04392241148 | 1.1217 | 7.9117 | 7.26 | 15.1717 | T | T | -0.039999999999999 | 68.96 | 58 | 405.27445382111 | 55.540400804814 | 0.15748734850433 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2022-11-03 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 32.28 | 16.03 | 24.155 | 137.90470009912 | 1.0699 | 7.9599 | 7.26 | 15.2199 | T | T | 0.28 | 68.28 | 58 | 405.69514550001 | 55.947267371848 | 0.16600797611996 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2022-11-03 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 31.91 | 16.84 | 24.375 | 137.34781270016 | 0.9106 | 7.5006 | 7.26 | 14.7606 | T | T | -0.09 | 68.91 | 58 | 405.42308051605 | 55.683973327042 | 0.15618236554158 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2022-11-03 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 30.82 | 15.91 | 23.365 | 137.40042294685 | 0.9684 | 7.4084 | 7.26 | 14.6684 | T | T | -1.18 | 61.82 | 58 | 405.44879949347 | 55.708836533696 | 0.12949967356927 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
2022-11-03 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 32.4 | 16.7 | 24.55 | 14.810582167604 | 0.8811 | 7.2311 | 7.04 | 14.2711 | T | T | 0.4 | 58.4 | 58 | 335.1453220755 | 4.9636973306874 | 0.16927841734194 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | L |
2022-11-02 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 33.01 | 16.35 | 24.68 | 15.990700271164 | 1.0827 | 7.3127 | 7.1 | 14.4127 | T | T | 1.01 | 71.01 | 58 | 335.93174997048 | 5.3717839253456 | 0.18653519699088 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-02 16:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 32.84 | 17.16 | 25 | 15.899568210976 | 1.0453 | 7.0353 | 7.1 | 14.1353 | T | T | 0.84 | 77.84 | 58 | 335.87110373762 | 5.340205523972 | 0.18162007034781 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-02 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 32.27 | 17.27 | 24.77 | 15.451844522674 | 0.9929 | 6.8629 | 7.1 | 13.9629 | T | T | 0.27 | 78.27 | 58 | 335.5729502155 | 5.1852210527449 | 0.16573728995298 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-02 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 35.77 | 16.42 | 26.095 | 16.497269594662 | 1.213 | 7.113 | 7.13 | 14.243 | T | T | 3.77 | 71.77 | 58 | 336.2686041124 | 5.5475138182628 | 0.27728730789328 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2022-11-02 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 34.43 | 16.72 | 25.575 | 15.754012066393 | 1.1272 | 6.7272 | 7.22 | 13.9472 | T | T | 2.43 | 73.43 | 58 | 335.77421044098 | 5.2897909628709 | 0.23072285370356 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-02 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 32.86 | 17.27 | 25.065 | 18.770345767888 | 1.1055 | 5.9755 | 7.08 | 13.0555 | T | T | 0.86 | 67.86 | 58 | 337.77481035608 | 6.3401499820665 | 0.18219408730645 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-01 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 35.5 | 16.58 | 26.04 | 16.239365468083 | 1.1516 | 6.2216 | 7.17 | 13.3916 | T | T | 3.5 | 87.5 | 58 | 336.09715938955 | 5.4580046041114 | 0.26754836010296 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2022-11-01 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 32.57 | 16.58 | 24.575 | 18.080784436315 | 1.0493 | 5.6893 | 7.17 | 12.8593 | T | T | 0.57 | 78.57 | 58 | 337.31880555844 | 6.0989886096173 | 0.17398165820471 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-01 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 32.97 | 16.86 | 24.915 | 16.017512129949 | 0.9335 | 5.4135 | 7.17 | 12.5835 | T | T | 0.97 | 83.97 | 58 | 335.94958995655 | 5.3810766321804 | 0.18537136515326 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-01 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 31.52 | 16.78 | 24.15 | 16.195423814442 | 0.7229 | 5.0129 | 7.11 | 12.1229 | T | T | -0.48 | 83.52 | 58 | 336.06793747248 | 5.4427626778123 | 0.14624794232271 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-01 04:00:31 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 31.52 | 16.96 | 24.24 | 17.286503737418 | 0.7229 | 4.9329 | 7.19 | 12.1229 | T | T | -0.48 | 79.52 | 58 | 336.79255937558 | 5.8219658363804 | 0.14624794232271 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-11-01 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 29.09 | 17.06 | 23.075 | 24.688668991303 | 0.9393 | 4.2893 | 4.75 | 9.0393 | T | T | -2.91 | 67.09 | 58 | 341.65590846171 | 8.4350296329341 | 0.093933187234744 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-10-31 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 31.6 | 18.7 | 25.15 | 22.167750894867 | 1.1502 | 4.2302 | 5.06 | 9.2902 | T | T | -0.4 | 76.6 | 58 | 340.00987948191 | 7.5372543101487 | 0.14825046933286 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-10-31 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 31.6 | 18.71 | 25.155 | 23.103698078113 | 1.1502 | 4.2102 | 5.18 | 9.3902 | T | T | -0.4 | 70.6 | 58 | 340.62223500631 | 7.8696332762781 | 0.14825046933286 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-10-31 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 36.87 | 19.12 | 27.995 | 20.222244419054 | 1.2364 | 3.6264 | 5.09 | 8.7164 | T | T | 4.87 | 70.87 | 58 | 338.73233921903 | 6.8499281563249 | 0.31865967698673 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2022-10-31 08:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 38.8 | 19.2 | 29 | 22.287933449005 | 1.0861 | 4.0961 | 5.59 | 9.6861 | T | T | 6.8 | 91.8 | 58 | 340.08859195643 | 7.5798719042905 | 0.39671950307608 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2022-10-31 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 38.83 | 19.18 | 29.005 | 22.650475063873 | 1.0861 | 4.0961 | 6.14 | 10.2361 | T | T | 6.83 | 87.83 | 58 | 340.32588978621 | 7.7085430801927 | 0.39797599596252 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2022-10-31 00:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 43.14 | 17.72 | 30.43 | 25.098153346768 | 2.7416 | 5.4216 | 5.47 | 10.8916 | T | T | 11.14 | 92.14 | 58 | 341.92228689342 | 8.5816179891287 | 0.58296240718832 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2022-10-30 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 43.2 | 17.46 | 30.33 | 25.470930933178 | 2.7416 | 5.6416 | 6.56 | 12.2016 | T | T | 11.2 | 93.2 | 58 | 342.16454597853 | 8.7152495184013 | 0.58550375983156 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2022-10-30 16:00:10 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 39.97 | 17.87 | 28.92 | 28.055891364829 | 2.9048 | 5.7548 | 6.54 | 12.2948 | T | T | 7.97 | 77.97 | 58 | 343.83815339599 | 9.6466858787612 | 0.44639093672201 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2022-10-30 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 43.13 | 24.23 | 33.68 | 41.243516688794 | 6.742 | 13.232 | 6.02 | 19.252 | T | T | 11.13 | 83.13 | 58 | 352.20740034885 | 14.526271794205 | 0.58253850820474 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22.5 | WET | L |
2022-10-30 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 41.95 | 25.4 | 33.675 | 37.192063457093 | 7.1238 | 14.0138 | 5.99 | 20.0038 | T | T | 9.95 | 85.95 | 58 | 349.66599971651 | 13.004800050244 | 0.53197821175894 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22.5 | WET | L |
2022-10-30 04:00:10 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 41.98 | 25.45 | 33.715 | 37.4819362857 | 7.1238 | 14.0138 | 5.97 | 19.9838 | T | T | 9.98 | 87.98 | 58 | 349.84870142994 | 13.113006736632 | 0.53327361931963 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22.5 | WET | L |
2022-10-30 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 44.23 | 20.55 | 32.39 | 23.084171879142 | 2.6679 | 6.2879 | 6.27 | 12.5579 | T | T | 12.23 | 81.23 | 58 | 340.60947460153 | 7.8626876553659 | 0.62848852482644 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2022-10-29 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 43.51 | 18.86 | 31.185 | 23.960808421389 | 2.9184 | 7.0284 | 6.22 | 13.2484 | T | T | 11.51 | 84.51 | 58 | 341.18173495379 | 8.1749901881051 | 0.59857489244426 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2022-10-29 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 43.58 | 22.83 | 33.205 | 22.415379572837 | 2.8697 | 6.8897 | 6.27 | 13.1597 | T | T | 11.58 | 90.58 | 58 | 340.172035394 | 7.625085293421 | 0.60151179528279 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
2022-10-29 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 33.11 | 23 | 28.055 | 23.738135665 | 1.0813 | 3.0013 | 6.23 | 9.2313 | T | T | 1.11 | 70.11 | 58 | 341.03649690938 | 8.0955706303511 | 0.18946447156794 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
2022-10-29 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 35.09 | 31.41 | 33.25 | 19.114947816209 | 0.3931 | 2.1231 | 5.99 | 8.1131 | T | T | 3.09 | 77.09 | 58 | 338.00239550999 | 6.4608981519273 | 0.25309644292348 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
2022-10-29 04:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 36 | 116 | 35.09 | 32.62 | 33.855 | 17.070186701418 | 0.3297 | 2.0597 | 5.62 | 7.6797 | T | T | 3.09 | 78.09 | 58 | 336.6490557069 | 5.7466622337729 | 0.25309644292348 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |