Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 4, 2022
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Saturday, November 5, 2022 ]
DAY 35
OF WATER YEAR 2023,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/05/2022 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.87°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.425
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 94
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 8.13 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 9.11 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.15 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 21 in
SWE DAY: 59
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 340.13 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 7.10 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 115
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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| Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2022-11-05 04:00:08 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 39.70994 | 30.03998 | 34.87496 | 20.860475714286 | 8.13 | 9.11 | 7.04 | 16.15 | T | T | 7.70994 | 93.70994 | 59 | 340.1335135761 | 7.0953468995689 | 0.42470050251991 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 00:00:01 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 38.15 | 38.15 | 38.15 | 15.96638 | 0.0952 | 1.0752 | 7.04 | 8.1152 | T | T | 6.15 | 92.15 | 58 | 335.91556677789 | 5.3633555870912 | 0.36492093915627 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 12:00:01 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 43.69 | 31.91 | 37.8 | 15.567477333333 | 3.958 | 4.938 | 7.04 | 11.978 | T | T | 11.69 | 97.69 | 58 | 335.64998628168 | 5.2252235533737 | 0.58189397356649 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 39.02 | 30.25 | 34.635 | 15.744105333333 | 5.0977 | 6.0777 | 7.04 | 13.1177 | T | T | 7.02 | 93.02 | 58 | 335.76761446002 | 5.2863606895806 | 0.39795754409179 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 04:00:14 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 41.1 | 30.28 | 35.69 | 15.553316985507 | 5.8818 | 6.8618 | 7.04 | 13.9018 | T | T | 9.1 | 95.1 | 58 | 335.64055369147 | 5.2203239247545 | 0.47951953986023 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 40.82 | 29.22 | 35.02 | 132.691844 | 6.2923 | 6.5823 | 7.04 | 13.6223 | T | T | 8.82 | 98.82 | 59 | 403.87201363872 | 53.590522229715 | 0.46841202447427 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 41.81 | 29.54 | 35.675 | 132.68533866667 | 6.2797 | 7.1097 | 7.04 | 14.1497 | T | T | 9.81 | 104.81 | 59 | 403.86880758174 | 53.587469510886 | 0.50773658141186 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 41.89 | 30.06 | 35.975 | 132.71376533333 | 6.1804 | 7.0104 | 7.04 | 14.0504 | T | T | 9.89 | 104.89 | 59 | 403.88281685245 | 53.600809377922 | 0.51091615802805 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 41.25 | 30.04 | 35.645 | 132.57978845617 | 6.2783 | 7.1083 | 7.04 | 14.1483 | T | T | 9.25 | 104.25 | 59 | 403.81678132366 | 53.537943442942 | 0.48547709633858 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 41.5 | 30.16 | 35.83 | 132.75135596187 | 6.0938 | 6.8138 | 7.04 | 13.8538 | T | T | 9.5 | 104.5 | 59 | 403.90134076687 | 53.618450661621 | 0.49541290756008 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 35.58 | 30.16 | 32.87 | 132.64859616398 | 5.9228 | 6.6628 | 7.04 | 13.7028 | T | T | 3.58 | 98.58 | 59 | 403.85069859005 | 53.570228227814 | 0.27376794010971 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 38.9 | 30.36 | 34.63 | 10.926101613036 | 5.8789 | 6.3489 | 7.04 | 13.3889 | T | T | 6.9 | 93.9 | 59 | 333.54645471637 | 3.6443624568989 | 0.39335100296083 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2022-11-02 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 34.65 | 30.16 | 32.405 | 10.81061524618 | 5.8172 | 6.2872 | 7.04 | 13.3272 | T | T | 2.65 | 105.65 | 59 | 333.46889909652 | 3.6050039646996 | 0.24379470798994 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 52.5 | WET | H |
| 2022-11-02 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 41.07 | 29.71 | 35.39 | 10.710849319563 | 5.6539 | 6.0539 | 7.04 | 13.0939 | T | T | 9.07 | 113.07 | 59 | 333.4018823226 | 3.5710173244161 | 0.47832853472149 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2022-11-02 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 41.56 | 30.12 | 35.84 | 10.852495168955 | 5.5676 | 5.9276 | 7.04 | 12.9676 | T | T | 9.56 | 113.56 | 59 | 333.49702645985 | 3.6192748685165 | 0.4977981582896 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2022-11-02 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 41.56 | 30.02 | 35.79 | 11.200459465234 | 5.6181 | 5.9881 | 7.04 | 13.0281 | T | T | 9.56 | 103.56 | 59 | 333.73061031885 | 3.737936173184 | 0.4977981582896 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2022-11-02 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 43.51 | 29.1 | 36.305 | 11.120735937834 | 5.2869 | 5.7769 | 7.04 | 12.8169 | T | T | 11.51 | 106.51 | 59 | 333.67711119274 | 3.7107350420736 | 0.5748766221339 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2022-11-02 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 43 | 29 | 36 | 12.706951489517 | 4.6145 | 5.0845 | 6.87 | 11.9545 | T | T | 11 | 103 | 59 | 334.73952025573 | 4.2535188455136 | 0.5548721556335 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2022-11-01 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 40.68 | 29.08 | 34.88 | 10.901015221004 | 4.8064 | 5.3464 | 6.89 | 12.2364 | T | T | 8.68 | 119.68 | 59 | 333.52960972095 | 3.6358113522237 | 0.46286693192544 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2022-11-01 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 42.02 | 28.52 | 35.27 | 12.618811694034 | 4.376 | 4.916 | 6.89 | 11.806 | T | T | 10.02 | 114.02 | 59 | 334.68059858684 | 4.2232714512139 | 0.5160814010147 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2022-11-01 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 39.93 | 28.76 | 34.345 | 11.307881825872 | 4.166 | 4.756 | 6.89 | 11.646 | T | T | 7.93 | 118.93 | 59 | 333.80267984282 | 3.7746012568218 | 0.43331006397926 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2022-11-01 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 41.78 | 28.66 | 35.22 | 11.175510725191 | 4.0105 | 4.5005 | 6.9 | 11.4005 | T | T | 9.78 | 119.78 | 59 | 333.71386942711 | 3.7294229269276 | 0.50654410257923 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2022-11-01 04:00:30 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 41.77 | 28.36 | 35.065 | 12.199236847882 | 3.9734 | 4.4834 | 6.92 | 11.4034 | T | T | 9.77 | 115.77 | 59 | 334.39993084755 | 4.0794239583247 | 0.50614659611259 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 67.5 | WET | H |
| 2022-11-01 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 40.33 | 30.06 | 35.195 | 17.826524651517 | 3.2173 | 3.4873 | 4.61 | 8.0973 | T | T | 8.33 | 106.33 | 59 | 338.1394307084 | 6.027850897173 | 0.44903805981744 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 39.65 | 30.77 | 35.21 | 14.513055839197 | 3.0138 | 3.2238 | 4.92 | 8.1438 | T | T | 7.65 | 112.65 | 59 | 335.94400538186 | 4.8755741089503 | 0.42236145914153 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60 | WET | H |
| 2022-10-31 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 39.66 | 30.77 | 35.215 | 15.313469291518 | 3.0047 | 3.2947 | 4.95 | 8.2447 | T | T | 7.66 | 106.66 | 59 | 336.47603405721 | 5.1526154148668 | 0.42275150206163 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 12:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 38.35 | 30.37 | 34.36 | 16.07564348588 | 2.3332 | 2.5432 | 4.94 | 7.4832 | T | T | 6.35 | 102.35 | 59 | 336.98164101697 | 5.4171967222755 | 0.37243724860761 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 43.72 | 30.09 | 36.905 | 16.765217033915 | 2.926 | 3.136 | 5.46 | 8.596 | T | T | 11.72 | 120.72 | 59 | 337.43824391873 | 5.6572253948405 | 0.58306106546487 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 43.79 | 30.1 | 36.945 | 17.020816966098 | 2.926 | 3.146 | 6 | 9.146 | T | T | 11.79 | 116.79 | 59 | 337.60728701765 | 5.7463518387482 | 0.58578141826524 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 00:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 40.15 | 31.93 | 36.04 | 18.639130553701 | 2.469 | 2.859 | 5.29 | 8.149 | T | T | 8.15 | 117.15 | 59 | 338.67502852449 | 6.3126080719464 | 0.44194902938922 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-30 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 40.08 | 33.02 | 36.55 | 18.695999941884 | 2.6803 | 3.1203 | 6.34 | 9.4603 | T | T | 8.08 | 118.08 | 59 | 338.71247041267 | 6.3325683271505 | 0.43919706938457 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-30 16:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 38.48 | 33.03 | 35.755 | 19.039263660401 | 2.6565 | 3.0665 | 6.32 | 9.3865 | T | T | 6.48 | 106.48 | 59 | 338.93835490017 | 6.4531367035668 | 0.37734923229007 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-30 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 42.8 | 32.88 | 37.84 | 18.544269612116 | 5.7336 | 6.5636 | 5.95 | 12.5136 | T | T | 10.8 | 107.8 | 59 | 338.612561574 | 6.2793226358777 | 0.54698603171191 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-30 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 42.05 | 33.63 | 37.84 | 18.837121727481 | 5.7876 | 7.0276 | 5.85 | 12.8776 | T | T | 10.05 | 112.05 | 59 | 338.80535936141 | 6.3821177962138 | 0.51727302861696 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-30 04:00:10 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 42.07 | 33.68 | 37.875 | 18.557765167806 | 5.7876 | 7.0176 | 5.84 | 12.8576 | T | T | 10.07 | 114.07 | 59 | 338.62144946095 | 6.2840573398784 | 0.51806736196269 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 45 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-30 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 38.75 | 32.84 | 35.795 | 20.788226080181 | 3.3915 | 3.7515 | 6.14 | 9.8915 | T | T | 6.75 | 104.75 | 59 | 340.08620545819 | 7.0697889258157 | 0.38761381972468 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-29 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 39.3 | 32.35 | 35.825 | 21.115303452456 | 3.782 | 4.252 | 6.08 | 10.332 | T | T | 7.3 | 109.3 | 59 | 340.30030216109 | 7.1855441450938 | 0.40876054884777 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-29 16:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 39.27 | 32.34 | 35.805 | 20.091942197618 | 3.782 | 4.092 | 6.2 | 10.292 | T | T | 7.27 | 115.27 | 59 | 339.62984258614 | 6.8238231658267 | 0.40759960660228 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-29 12:00:10 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 35.06 | 28.12 | 31.59 | 20.008505153699 | 1.9121 | 1.9821 | 6.17 | 8.1521 | T | T | 3.06 | 105.06 | 59 | 339.5751015676 | 6.7943901697831 | 0.25678689383677 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-29 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 35.82 | 29.66 | 32.74 | 19.164147816209 | 1.729 | 1.769 | 5.95 | 7.719 | T | T | 3.82 | 109.82 | 59 | 339.0204859976 | 6.4970387063811 | 0.28178822807017 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-29 04:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 35.86 | 29.57 | 32.715 | 17.114302701418 | 1.729 | 1.769 | 5.58 | 7.349 | T | T | 3.86 | 110.86 | 59 | 337.66908716543 | 5.7789709706608 | 0.28313585921586 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-29 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 43.31 | 34.91 | 39.11 | 33.660322070701 | 3.7329 | 4.4529 | 5.46 | 9.9129 | T | T | 11.31 | 116.31 | 59 | 348.37915121784 | 11.72655443271 | 0.5670517442392 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-28 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 44.73 | 35.44 | 40.085 | 32.961233767924 | 3.2945 | 4.0445 | 5.41 | 9.4545 | T | T | 12.73 | 122.73 | 59 | 347.93568735749 | 11.468389527193 | 0.62186414855094 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-28 16:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 43.14 | 35.13 | 39.135 | 33.241509259957 | 2.0529 | 2.7929 | 5.47 | 8.2629 | T | T | 11.14 | 116.14 | 59 | 348.11357356302 | 11.571820579112 | 0.56037973994134 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-28 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 33.22 | 27.45 | 30.335 | 36.154308033909 | 0.749 | 2.829 | 5.54 | 8.369 | T | T | 1.22 | 107.22 | 59 | 349.95480109072 | 12.652373676579 | 0.20138266256478 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-28 08:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 27.49 | 25.1 | 26.295 | 41.518050307983 | 0.5137 | 2.6837 | 6.22 | 8.9037 | T | T | -4.51 | 96.49 | 59 | 353.30987650943 | 14.668737227226 | 0.079508726482384 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-28 04:00:17 | FORECAST | 2023 | 35 | 115 | 27.5 | 25.83 | 26.665 | 41.118120613331 | 0.3966 | 2.5666 | 6.65 | 9.2166 | T | T | -4.5 | 99.5 | 59 | 353.0612903836 | 14.517216721891 | 0.079656629063062 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |