Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 30, 2022
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Tuesday, November 29, 2022 |
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Thursday, December 1, 2022 ]
DAY 61
OF WATER YEAR 2023,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/01/2022 07:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.43°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.81°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.151
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 125
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 1.45 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.93 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.01 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.94 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 64 in
SWE DAY: 32
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 341.63 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 21.71 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 141
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2022-12-01 07:00:13 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 25.43 | 18.19994 | 21.81497 | 63.539756521739 | 1.45 | 2.93 | 3.01 | 5.94 | T | T | -6.57 | 125.43 | 32 | 341.62560896545 | 21.706808015256 | 0.15129090573851 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-12-01 03:00:20 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 25.43 | 18.19994 | 21.81497 | 63.539756521739 | 1.45 | 2.93 | 3.01 | 5.94 | T | T | -6.57 | 125.43 | 32 | 341.62560896545 | 21.706808015256 | 0.15129090573851 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 23.48 | 17.04 | 20.26 | 49.897348152972 | 0.5114 | 1.9914 | 3.01 | 5.0014 | T | F | -8.52 | 123.48 | 32 | 332.5896089079 | 16.595339507738 | 0.10779827795961 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 07:00:14 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 24.39 | 16.51 | 20.45 | 49.797164699055 | 0.5509 | 2.0309 | 3.01 | 5.0409 | T | F | -7.61 | 124.39 | 32 | 332.52208785056 | 16.558657174768 | 0.12682827726239 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-30 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 32.42 | 16.41 | 24.415 | 51.055661274326 | 0.9351 | 2.4151 | 3.01 | 5.4251 | T | F | 0.42 | 132.42 | 32 | 333.36903553254 | 17.020376557498 | 0.38663156038823 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 23:00:01 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 31.67 | 15.18 | 23.425 | 48.552585611284 | 1.2905 | 2.5105 | 3.01 | 5.5205 | T | T | -0.33 | 132.67 | 32 | 331.68183958939 | 16.104010912372 | 0.35651486587556 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 31.1 | 16.26 | 23.68 | 49.230068868943 | 1.2129 | 2.4329 | 3.01 | 5.4429 | T | F | -0.9 | 132.1 | 32 | 332.13955585592 | 16.351253208887 | 0.33419876121302 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 33.11 | 17.53 | 25.32 | 48.463618326303 | 1.2115 | 2.4315 | 3.01 | 5.4415 | T | F | 1.11 | 134.11 | 32 | 331.62167363595 | 16.071586219822 | 0.41496031997126 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 33.03 | 17.54 | 25.285 | 53.271443817624 | 1.2823 | 2.5023 | 3.01 | 5.5123 | T | T | 1.03 | 134.03 | 32 | 334.85365727984 | 17.838137790909 | 0.41165001372038 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 10:15:00 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 33.03 | 17.54 | 25.285 | 53.271443817624 | 1.2823 | 2.5023 | 3.01 | 5.5123 | T | T | 1.03 | 134.03 | 32 | 334.85365727984 | 17.838137790909 | 0.41165001372038 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 07:00:12 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 29.88 | 15.57 | 22.725 | 124.61011667793 | 1.2582 | 2.4782 | 3.01 | 5.4882 | T | F | -2.12 | 137.88 | 32 | 378.44877557159 | 47.158546080594 | 0.28843300566415 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-29 03:00:11 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 31.28 | 15.79 | 23.535 | 123.4633331992 | 1.2748 | 2.4448 | 3.01 | 5.4548 | T | F | -0.72 | 139.28 | 32 | 377.80861957345 | 46.645511483929 | 0.34118741890946 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 31.04 | 15.82 | 23.43 | 42.713191983478 | 1.3603 | 2.1203 | 3.01 | 5.1303 | T | F | -0.96 | 148.04 | 32 | 327.7038479316 | 13.997277370427 | 0.33188176765865 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 19:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 31.33 | 17.15 | 24.24 | 44.698019811311 | 1.4379 | 2.1779 | 3.01 | 5.1879 | T | F | -0.67 | 148.33 | 32 | 329.06260381284 | 14.708446784388 | 0.34313854205183 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 15:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 30.7 | 19.23 | 24.965 | 44.107054949547 | 1.4656 | 2.1956 | 3.01 | 5.2056 | T | F | -1.3 | 146.7 | 32 | 328.65876222043 | 14.496170084906 | 0.31887537463901 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 31.22 | 20.04 | 25.63 | 46.501521290205 | 1.5889 | 2.2689 | 3.01 | 5.2789 | T | F | -0.78 | 139.22 | 32 | 330.29130294378 | 15.35904805581 | 0.33885166439805 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 07:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 32.43 | 20.52 | 26.475 | 45.189182670296 | 1.6133 | 2.2133 | 3.01 | 5.2233 | T | F | 0.43 | 136.43 | 32 | 329.39778376992 | 14.88521662197 | 0.38703823080492 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-28 03:00:21 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 32.52 | 20.48 | 26.5 | 46.178677940323 | 1.6346 | 2.3246 | 3.01 | 5.3346 | T | F | 0.52 | 134.52 | 32 | 330.07176789622 | 15.242277866873 | 0.39070379389818 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 23:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 29.28 | 20.12 | 24.7 | 40.600132338597 | 1.6039 | 2.4539 | 2.37 | 4.8239 | T | F | -2.72 | 134.28 | 32 | 326.24976016674 | 13.245783438205 | 0.26706326526585 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 29.07 | 21.38 | 25.225 | 40.986438486384 | 1.7876 | 2.5076 | 2.37 | 4.8776 | T | F | -2.93 | 137.07 | 32 | 326.51617743925 | 13.382735221423 | 0.25977710886479 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 15:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 28.47 | 20.07 | 24.27 | 39.700752900675 | 1.5724 | 2.1824 | 2.37 | 4.5524 | T | F | -3.53 | 136.47 | 32 | 325.62848654518 | 12.927696081751 | 0.23953839136472 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 31.23 | 16.21 | 23.72 | 42.216029027236 | 1.3543 | 1.9843 | 2.37 | 4.3543 | T | F | -0.77 | 130.23 | 32 | 327.36243035192 | 13.819941862163 | 0.33924053004438 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 28.07 | 18.23 | 23.15 | 43.428803345365 | 1.4655 | 2.0955 | 2.5 | 4.5955 | T | F | -3.93 | 137.07 | 32 | 328.19452466487 | 14.253095470696 | 0.2265387121851 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-27 03:00:14 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 27.3 | 18.24 | 22.77 | 45.371934758411 | 1.4339 | 2.0439 | 2.85 | 4.8939 | T | F | -4.7 | 141.3 | 32 | 329.52239097228 | 14.95106842463 | 0.20266898011129 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 26.78 | 17.49 | 22.135 | 46.046691898229 | 1.3125 | 2.0125 | 3.41 | 5.4225 | T | F | -5.22 | 143.78 | 32 | 329.98196488976 | 15.194577869251 | 0.18743318346496 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 19:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 26.61 | 17.62 | 22.115 | 44.2300217039 | 1.2873 | 1.7973 | 3.36 | 5.1573 | T | F | -5.39 | 149.61 | 32 | 328.7428427008 | 14.540303067658 | 0.1826095895031 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 28.14 | 19.75 | 23.945 | 43.036044025715 | 1.1802 | 1.6902 | 3.5 | 5.1902 | T | F | -3.86 | 150.14 | 32 | 327.92532989062 | 14.11260893432 | 0.22878454162759 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 11:00:10 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 27.79 | 18.61 | 23.2 | 45.044493509182 | 1.2356 | 1.8356 | 3.37 | 5.2056 | T | F | -4.21 | 149.79 | 32 | 329.29908825974 | 14.833110643696 | 0.21768069469446 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 07:00:18 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 27.77 | 18.61 | 23.19 | 44.795465463278 | 1.2356 | 1.8256 | 3.4 | 5.2256 | T | F | -4.23 | 151.77 | 32 | 329.12913604851 | 14.74349284682 | 0.21705570553553 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-26 03:00:35 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 30.22 | 16.47 | 23.345 | 45.404913620335 | 0.889 | 1.559 | 3.47 | 5.029 | T | F | -1.78 | 145.22 | 32 | 329.54487103254 | 14.962956403257 | 0.30088948635902 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 23:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 26.88 | 10 | 18.44 | 49.070998770149 | 1.1869 | 1.9369 | 3.78 | 5.7169 | T | F | -5.12 | 132.88 | 32 | 332.03215682887 | 16.293149559399 | 0.19030695204489 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 30.71 | 14.72 | 22.715 | 51.019076867179 | 1.4822 | 2.0922 | 3.76 | 5.8522 | T | T | -1.29 | 134.71 | 32 | 333.34445301079 | 17.006926271405 | 0.31925485160091 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 15:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 27.51 | 14.73 | 21.12 | 49.921794702404 | 1.6177 | 2.2277 | 3.76 | 5.9877 | T | T | -4.49 | 140.51 | 32 | 332.60608264235 | 16.604292574442 | 0.20902552735365 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 11:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 29.51 | 17.44 | 23.475 | 50.735684389494 | 1.1647 | 1.8947 | 3.78 | 5.6747 | T | F | -2.49 | 125.51 | 32 | 333.15395290447 | 16.902793807674 | 0.27515988642004 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 07:00:30 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 30.9 | 17.8 | 24.35 | 50.439129232307 | 1.1647 | 1.9647 | 3.8 | 5.7647 | T | T | -1.1 | 147.9 | 32 | 332.95445779279 | 16.793932925083 | 0.32650049847277 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-25 03:00:30 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 24.41 | 8.27 | 16.34 | 48.673009186398 | 0.714 | 1.534 | 3.92 | 5.454 | T | F | -7.59 | 133.41 | 32 | 331.76325685126 | 16.147916048431 | 0.12727118358093 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-24 23:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 23.59 | 15.88 | 19.735 | 56.613618437344 | 1.4029 | 2.5329 | 3.96 | 6.4929 | T | T | -8.41 | 142.59 | 32 | 337.07723869616 | 19.083162175458 | 0.1099830563409 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-24 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 33.69 | 16.79 | 25.24 | 62.291662588509 | 1.7687 | 3.1387 | 4.06 | 7.1987 | T | T | 1.69 | 148.69 | 32 | 340.81188937462 | 21.229739219076 | 0.43912655516482 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-24 15:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 33.82 | 16.81 | 25.315 | 62.970840100315 | 1.7748 | 2.9548 | 4.11 | 7.0648 | T | T | 1.82 | 138.82 | 32 | 341.25501254318 | 21.489114828287 | 0.44457775239678 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-24 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 25.67 | 20.88 | 23.275 | 53.288332396857 | 1.3215 | 2.1815 | 3.98 | 6.1615 | T | T | -6.33 | 138.67 | 32 | 334.86494093449 | 17.844394280571 | 0.15735344122641 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-24 07:00:32 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 27.72 | 20.7 | 24.21 | 55.196646857322 | 1.3215 | 2.5115 | 4.09 | 6.6015 | T | T | -4.28 | 135.72 | 32 | 336.13681813573 | 18.553625246382 | 0.21549776850718 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-24 03:00:38 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 27.24 | 17.45 | 22.345 | 57.812117256961 | 1.0968 | 2.2768 | 4.16 | 6.4368 | T | T | -4.76 | 134.24 | 32 | 337.87002464932 | 19.532981482639 | 0.20087422107695 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-23 23:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 29.88 | 21.43 | 25.655 | 56.477910858643 | 1.6802 | 2.4702 | 4.08 | 6.5502 | T | T | -2.12 | 142.88 | 32 | 336.98731831086 | 19.032339724054 | 0.28843300566415 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-23 19:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 34.16 | 21.58 | 27.87 | 52.081873490115 | 1.5999 | 2.2199 | 4.15 | 6.3699 | T | T | 2.16 | 149.16 | 32 | 334.05765853178 | 17.398348710056 | 0.45888177508156 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-23 15:00:11 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 31.3 | 23.48 | 27.39 | 54.861206331009 | 1.3998 | 2.1098 | 4.22 | 6.3298 | T | T | -0.7 | 140.3 | 32 | 335.91369590914 | 18.428630580683 | 0.34196736261475 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-23 11:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 26.55 | 19.81 | 23.18 | 55.899347228797 | 0.6851 | 2.1151 | 4.34 | 6.4551 | T | T | -5.45 | 146.55 | 32 | 336.60361178764 | 18.815922173784 | 0.1809257770926 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-23 07:00:38 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 18.65 | 17.81 | 18.23 | 52.172926476812 | 0.4217 | 1.8517 | 3.99 | 5.8417 | T | T | -13.35 | 133.65 | 32 | 334.11867150448 | 17.431948882933 | 0.03981165869039 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-23 03:00:10 | FORECAST | 2023 | 61 | 141 | 23.23 | 20.62 | 21.925 | 45.712528868364 | 0.0905 | 1.3305 | 3.88 | 5.2105 | T | F | -8.77 | 133.23 | 32 | 329.75446646802 | 15.073910567891 | 0.10294916318447 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |