MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 3, 2022

[ Wednesday, November 2, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, November 4, 2022 ]

DAY 34 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/04/2022 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.46°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.74°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.10°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.086
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -3
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 123

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.76 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.16 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.86 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.02 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 16 in
SWE DAY: 60
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 337.90 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 5.39 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 114

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 28.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-04 04:00:12OBSERVATION20233411429.4600216.7399623.0999915.9602556521740.759999999999991.166.868.02TT-2.53998123.4600260337.89505692633 5.392891492150.08649430275089216 15142228WETL
2022-11-04 00:00:01FORECAST20233411432.932.932.9132.995080.07170.47176.867.3317TT0.9126.959404.021400228153.7328584450490.16321063490208161512127WETL
2022-11-03 12:00:02FORECAST20233411437.9925.5831.785132.88165778950.60891.00896.867.8689TT5.99131.9959403.9655372276853.6796102766410.338072480354261625141216WETL
2022-11-03 08:00:02FORECAST20233411438.4619.7829.12133.040706628540.49910.89916.867.7591TT6.46132.4659404.0438678343853.7542816856150.357295076505691625131212WETL
2022-11-03 04:00:12FORECAST20233411438.4518.828.625132.742076163980.52230.92236.867.7823TT6.45132.4559403.8967680313853.6140955444070.356882082120091625131212WETL
2022-11-03 00:00:03FORECAST20233411438.4319.9929.2111.0663216130360.46640.64646.867.5064TT6.43124.4360334.642870013613.703265625080.356056596546091625133236WETL
2022-11-02 20:00:02FORECAST20233411438.3923.5130.9510.896879246180.41120.65126.867.5112TT6.39140.3960334.52954407413.6453280460550.354407650402921625133236WETL
2022-11-02 16:00:02FORECAST20233411438.5624.7331.64511.014795986230.34150.58156.867.4415TT6.56140.5660334.608413957813.68564341502120.361434141063681625133236WETL
2022-11-02 12:00:04FORECAST20233411438.6424.7831.7111.1435405022890.30110.54116.867.4011TT6.64140.6460334.694499145123.72968170711680.364757131051021625133236WETL
2022-11-02 08:00:02FORECAST20233411438.6424.7531.69511.4407194652340.28140.55146.867.4114TT6.64130.6460334.893100789973.83141801698030.364757131051021625133236WETL
2022-11-02 04:00:05FORECAST20233411438.7223.9331.32511.4513599378340.30530.66536.867.5253TT6.72131.7260334.900208928883.83506283570030.368090307882581625133236WETL
2022-11-02 00:00:04FORECAST20233411438.523.8231.1610.9144221323710.26270.48276.867.3427TT6.5128.560334.54127931863.65132474318660.358948721154021625123224WETL
2022-11-01 20:00:03FORECAST20233411439.0323.3831.20511.1613378876710.26070.57076.867.4307TT7.03148.0360334.706397175313.73577119203870.381098289299151625133236WETL
2022-11-01 16:00:02FORECAST20233411432.423.5427.9711.9661624123980.25740.56746.867.4274TT0.4141.460335.243882262454.01158274291520.149928131872081615133231.5WETL
2022-11-01 12:00:03FORECAST20233411438.6323.2130.9211.3410177812650.31370.62376.867.4837TT6.63147.6360334.826487889633.79727315279470.364341195503871625133236WETL
2022-11-01 08:00:04FORECAST20233411439.0323.8231.42511.0341677467680.27670.52676.867.3867TT7.03147.0360334.621368709843.69226831399740.381098289299151625133236WETL
2022-11-01 04:00:30FORECAST20233411439.0123.2231.11511.7960159017280.24480.57486.867.4348TT7.01143.0160335.130345074683.95320287965250.38025481936161625133236WETL
2022-11-01 00:00:03FORECAST20233411439.925.3332.61515.8802937892080.1330.3834.54.883TF7.9134.960337.842243744995.36503408507560.418283562018061625122216WETL
2022-10-31 20:00:04FORECAST20233411440.2424.9732.60514.8716145058630.06920.32924.85.1292TF8.24142.2460337.175109723235.01433825277610.433036835866861625122216WETL
2022-10-31 16:00:02FORECAST20233411439.925.1332.51515.6569946248510.06030.44034.85.2403TF7.9135.960337.694702381375.28728414002590.418283562018061625122216WETL
2022-10-31 12:00:08FORECAST20233411440.2724.6132.4416.361987485880.06250.35254.85.1525TF8.27133.2760338.160230358875.5329734573540.43434340198951625122216WETL
2022-10-31 08:00:05FORECAST20233411440.4525.332.87517.1853850339150.07670.38675.285.6667TF8.45146.4560338.702890180825.8207395798570.442197374534521625122216WETL
2022-10-31 04:00:06FORECAST20233411440.4521.3730.9117.4438276327640.08190.39195.836.2219TF8.45142.4560338.872982786235.91124190112370.442197374534521625122216WETL
2022-10-31 00:00:06FORECAST20233411440.225.1632.6819.0333318870340.20960.50965.175.6796TF8.2146.260339.9166548856.46974650635680.431295888023031625132224WETL
2022-10-30 20:00:05FORECAST20233411439.7425.4632.619.0644532752170.21940.52946.256.7794TT7.74146.7460339.937047230576.48071395344240.411379103775381625132224WETL
2022-10-30 16:00:08FORECAST20233411435.7922.5829.18519.3742609937340.18930.52936.26.7293TT3.79136.7960340.139961423536.58996038701820.254211962457821625132224WETL
2022-10-30 12:00:04FORECAST20233411433.620.126.8519.1445642787830.76450.91455.876.7845TT1.6133.660339.989532694886.50895146279050.18304832665011615132221WETL
2022-10-30 08:00:04FORECAST20233411437.1423.8130.47519.4683577274811.0971.3675.727.087TT5.14139.1460340.201560181426.62316567305910.304384955238971625142232WETL
2022-10-30 04:00:10FORECAST20233411437.4123.8130.6119.2369985011391.0971.3175.757.067TT5.41141.4160340.050078560886.54154285158780.314924657757281625142232WETL
2022-10-30 00:00:04FORECAST20233411436.6122.6129.6121.1173194135140.22820.54825.956.4982TT4.61134.6160341.278637540257.20688999794650.284167053828081625132224WETL
2022-10-29 20:00:03FORECAST20233411437.622.9230.2621.4742994524560.32870.63875.916.5487TT5.6138.660341.511218188547.33371416575370.322433510745951625132224WETL
2022-10-29 16:00:05FORECAST20233411437.624.1630.8820.4492435309510.24370.47376.046.5137TT5.6144.660340.842803799176.96997750066140.322433510745951625122216WETL
2022-10-29 12:00:09FORECAST20233411436.122.8529.47519.6963705777890.0060.23666.236TF4.1139.160340.350763703136.70367476833030.265339105305421625122216WETL
2022-10-29 08:00:05FORECAST20233411436.4124.2430.32518.6179938988620.00070.12075.875.9907TF4.41143.4160339.644349554656.32349642779140.276707944251991625122216WETL
2022-10-29 04:00:07FORECAST20233411436.4224.2430.3317.2572560347520.00070.12075.55.6207TF4.42144.4260338.750202901635.84589898329750.277078612512181625122216WETL
2022-10-29 00:00:06FORECAST20233411439.1822.8731.02534.3929100707010.67181.04185.146.1818TF7.18142.1860349.7876418967712.0302149115980.387442065917421625141216WETL
2022-10-28 20:00:04FORECAST20233411438.1926.5232.35533.6739231012570.67911.00915.156.1591TF6.19147.1960349.3341184412711.7634502410370.346204318840821625141216WETL
2022-10-28 16:00:07FORECAST20233411438.2126.4432.32533.7236692599570.67910.98915.226.2091TF6.21142.2160349.3655240594811.7818873842140.347021490485441625131212WETL
2022-10-28 12:00:06FORECAST20233411434.3325.2829.80535.4521148675161.99632.28635.337.6163TT2.33143.3360350.4542613364412.424344728710.205265203959641615151217.5WETL
2022-10-28 08:00:04FORECAST20233411434.0925.3629.72537.5102752338982.11452.35456.048.3945TT2.09138.0960351.7444648329113.1940316878830.197790558827571615151217.5WETL
2022-10-28 04:00:17FORECAST20233411434.0325.6829.85538.0011978039062.11452.35456.478.8245TT2.03141.0360352.0512155449713.378367879030.195947861973181615151217.5WETL
2022-10-28 00:00:07FORECAST20233411434.9125.4830.19530.9451492434280.96721.47725.647.1172TT2.91145.9160347.605302675210.7566979690910.224006238447631615141214WETL
2022-10-27 20:00:06FORECAST20233411437.0926.8931.9929.7842099569230.87281.40285.456.8528TT5.09148.0960346.8661479601310.3311341777940.302450497467831625141216WETL
2022-10-27 16:00:05FORECAST20233411437.0626.9532.00529.8754787798760.76781.29785.46.6978TT5.06154.0660346.924336588210.3645306559630.301292472954111625141216WETL
2022-10-27 12:00:04FORECAST20233411430.1625.9328.04533.5844098424550.98211.86215.897.7521TT-1.84147.1660349.2775971631711.7302819719160.0993914219675891615151217.5WETL
2022-10-27 08:00:04FORECAST20233411430.1928.1129.1527.2200684941360.50391.37395.917.2839TT-1.81150.1960345.225848967049.3970712548290.0999739121787771615142228WETL
2022-10-27 04:00:09FORECAST20233411428.5127.2427.87528.7098656305910.1791.0495.86.849TT-3.49140.5160346.180182584359.93878652597010.0710416476518551615142228WETL