MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 27, 2022

[ Saturday, November 26, 2022 | Index | Today | Monday, November 28, 2022 ]

DAY 58 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/28/2022 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.82°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.73°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.77°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.212
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 143

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.09 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.52 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.49 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 34 in
SWE DAY: 35
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 324.53 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 10.91 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 138

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-28 07:00:07OBSERVATION20235813827.8200419.7299423.7749933.6237695454551.091.521.493.01TF-4.17996142.8200435324.52750454892 10.9118380241140.2115195667751916 14151215DRYL
2022-11-28 03:00:15OBSERVATION20235813827.8200419.7299423.7749933.6237695454551.091.521.493.01TF-4.17996142.8200435324.52750454892 10.9118380241140.2115195667751916 14151215DRYL
2022-11-27 11:00:01FORECAST20235813826.4820.1823.3330.4881943038780.4520.8821.492.372FF-5.52141.4835322.341574061389.82761254220110.172971006088791614132218DRYL
2022-11-27 07:00:05FORECAST20235813823.9619.6821.8231.4945836940650.57661.00661.492.4966FF-8.04138.9635323.0450649899910.1741698362820.113446047151961614141212DRYL
2022-11-27 03:00:11FORECAST20235813831.4420.2625.8532.5939553298490.92781.35781.492.8478FF-0.56146.4435323.8115004008710.5542975793570.337426397009481624141214DRYL
2022-11-26 23:00:02FORECAST20235813829.2919.4124.3532.4073443262651.39221.92221.493.4122TF-2.71154.2935323.6815538643410.4896595681420.25908683128081624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-26 19:00:01FORECAST20235813829.4720.1424.80532.1323151430431.33891.86891.493.3589TF-2.53154.4735323.4899250274910.3944802165830.265268893194731624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-26 15:00:01FORECAST20235813829.920.0724.98532.5632278281951.4752.0051.493.495TF-2.1154.935323.7901075467910.5436510405620.280333762878851624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-26 11:00:06FORECAST20235813829.7220.0624.8932.8954081326071.35231.88231.493.3723TF-2.28154.7235324.0212869307610.658812477240.273977427459141624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-26 07:00:16FORECAST20235813829.9920.1325.0632.7769852620541.3691.9091.493.399TF-2.01156.9935323.9388934410510.6177403361230.283538460041461624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-26 03:00:30FORECAST20235813830.1520.125.12533.6945378370291.41551.97551.493.4655TF-1.85148.1535324.5766392381210.9364598518240.289278615818351624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-25 23:00:03FORECAST20235813830.3320.3625.34534.2241069717011.5282.2881.493.778TF-1.67138.3335324.9440408694611.1209196145330.29580075758961624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-25 19:00:03FORECAST20235813830.1120.7525.4334.3075744973351.50212.27211.493.7621TF-1.89134.1135325.0019034502211.1500270143940.287838472116411624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-25 15:00:03FORECAST20235813834.3520.5327.4432.7287455462931.50072.27071.493.7607TF2.35147.3535323.9053232374210.6010149053270.455122695078931624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-25 11:00:04FORECAST20235813830.0720.5625.31536.1440360332011.48222.29221.493.7822TF-1.93134.0735326.2719029379411.792783416410.286401719989551624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-25 07:00:27FORECAST20235813828.7120.9924.8535.460853304131.4922.3121.493.802TF-3.29147.7135325.8001418099211.5531510351860.239684873287571614151215DRYL
2022-11-25 03:00:27FORECAST20235813829.5420.4524.99535.900104714141.54612.42611.493.9161TF-2.46141.5435326.1035539459911.7071517343140.267693066863151624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-24 23:00:04FORECAST20235813829.6220.6325.12535.7451188237641.59972.46971.493.9597TF-2.38145.6235325.9965363628311.6527849284250.270477138024871624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-24 19:00:03FORECAST20235813834.6420.127.3736.4039403732291.59052.57051.494.0605TF2.64145.6435326.4511609583111.8841085982980.46726059030431624151217.5WETL
2022-11-24 15:00:03FORECAST20235813828.8320.7824.80537.6308899858291.64472.62471.494.1147TF-3.17138.8335327.2958014156412.3164322958960.243632989249161614151215WETL
2022-11-24 11:00:03FORECAST20235813828.7720.8224.79534.6686662256251.4722.4921.493.982TF-3.23144.7735325.2520834666511.2760559208940.241654560985051614151215DRYL
2022-11-24 07:00:29FORECAST20235813834.4520.2527.3532.8278149367631.53142.60141.494.0914TF2.45142.4535323.9742615568310.6353671026620.459304026332471624151217.5WETL
2022-11-24 03:00:34FORECAST20235813833.5420.2626.936.1495413865311.59012.67011.494.1601TF1.54141.5435326.2757012493511.7947169657330.421476572006191624151217.5WETL
2022-11-23 23:00:06FORECAST20235813829.220.3224.7635.4696970192841.48382.59381.494.0838TF-2.8139.235325.8062539303211.5562491138960.256023936292821624151217.5WETL
2022-11-23 19:00:04FORECAST20235813835.2120.2427.72532.9518613969941.63692.65691.494.1469TF3.21146.2135324.0605559376710.6783985234910.491196168767081624151217.5WETL
2022-11-23 15:00:08FORECAST20235813831.1320.2425.68535.7306152658961.69692.72691.494.2169TF-0.87148.1335325.9865195165711.6476989107150.325570445970121624151217.5WETL
2022-11-23 11:00:04FORECAST20235813830.421.3725.88535.8056129253711.76952.84951.494.3395TF-1.6144.435326.0383124848211.6740016156720.298355244719561624151217.5WETL
2022-11-23 07:00:36FORECAST20235813834.7621.3228.0432.495897795291.58972.49971.493.9897TF2.76149.7635323.7432257347610.5203267753940.472292740686871624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-23 03:00:09FORECAST20235813834.7422.928.8232.2816758892551.57662.37661.53.8766TF2.74149.7435323.5940099602210.446156949240.471453719913531624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-22 23:00:04FORECAST20235813834.4922.0528.2727.8855626956121.11011.56011.132.6901FF2.49143.4935320.513909905988.93771072949890.46097784641761624152235DRYL
2022-11-22 19:00:18FORECAST20235813834.9323.3629.14528.7870851982311.1881.6581.132.788FF2.93145.9335321.148360522369.24492521562940.479429006899651624152235DRYL
2022-11-22 15:00:03FORECAST20235813834.9123.3929.1531.7572851526641.33211.98211.143.1221TF2.91146.9135323.2284039881610.2648565948920.47858905938361624151217.5DRYL
2022-11-22 11:00:05FORECAST20235813830.1621.9426.0530.6584089745640.90011.58011.152.7301FF-1.84136.1635322.460684691359.88613154948510.289639179618741624152235DRYL
2022-11-22 07:00:25FORECAST20235813833.2223.0728.14529.8223492321540.90011.47011.412.8801FF1.22142.2235321.875142528719.59907290964060.408326775818761624142228DRYL
2022-11-22 03:00:13FORECAST20235813826.5718.422.48530.0768162276740.6951.3251.412.735FF-5.43131.5735322.053492493669.68634370921240.17541092480541614142224DRYL
2022-11-21 23:00:07FORECAST20235813833.1518.4525.828.8706138324280.51031.04031.462.5003FF1.15141.1535321.207070677699.27344529778090.405463421319641624142228DRYL
2022-11-21 19:00:09FORECAST20235813826.6322.5824.60528.1788632124980.31070.83071.572.4007FF-5.37130.6335320.720480958799.03753856238420.177049569117171614132218DRYL
2022-11-21 15:00:05FORECAST20235813834.4822.5828.5327.4368296649750.31070.84071.362.2007FF2.48139.4835320.19757001688.78520618768960.460559325407961624132221DRYL
2022-11-21 11:00:06FORECAST20235813826.9419.8623.432.1997724084190.5861.6161.262.876FF-5.06132.9435323.5369388209210.417815795750.18566884277961614151215DRYL
2022-11-21 07:00:15FORECAST20235813826.9519.8523.434.0193926148220.5861.6361.322.956TF-5.05122.9535324.8020738338211.0495692718610.18595114024781614151215DRYL
2022-11-21 03:00:11FORECAST2023581382818.4223.2134.3403703734470.57751.73751.393.1275TF-412735325.0246353311111.1614663577650.21705361300461614151215DRYL
2022-11-20 23:00:08FORECAST20235813832.823.2628.0355.8750458664392.4434.6231.215.833TT0.8133.835339.5495296012618.9723455403980.391225301953671624151217.5WETL
2022-11-20 19:00:07FORECAST20235813832.1321.4526.7960.3534544607412.55774.79771.135.9277TT0.13136.1335342.4716556461220.6693474731330.364386771602211624151217.5WETL
2022-11-20 15:00:03FORECAST20235813832.3824.3728.37555.6036353382752.1354.4851.35.785TT0.38133.3835339.3713658412518.8702816704890.374331539569951624151217.5WETL
2022-11-20 11:00:08FORECAST20235813827.6724.2125.9442.7953520684170.68162.18161.153.3316TF-4.33125.6735330.8223345975814.1576582811990.206969284649141614151215DRYL
2022-11-20 07:00:21FORECAST20235813827.6325.9426.78538.0400777253770.39551.89551.163.0555TF-4.37123.6335327.5769042277212.4610508978610.205766031419911614151215DRYL
2022-11-20 03:00:17FORECAST20235813832.732.0932.39522.7304601781880.00790.57791.241.8179FF0.7145.735316.857944127837.20232688114020.387182988946941624132221DRYL