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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 26, 2022

[ Friday, November 25, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 27, 2022 ]

DAY 57 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/27/2022 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.52°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.90°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.228
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 147

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.11 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.43 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.49 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.92 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 28 in
SWE DAY: 36
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 321.87 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 9.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 137

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-27 07:00:05OBSERVATION20235713727.5199818.2800422.9000128.3155886956520.110000000000010.430000000000011.491.92FF-4.48002146.5199836321.86764234488 9.11387177507690.2276072580944116 14122212DRYL
2022-11-27 03:00:10OBSERVATION20235713727.5199818.2800422.9000128.3155886956520.110000000000010.430000000000011.491.92FF-4.48002146.5199836321.86764234488 9.11387177507690.2276072580944116 14122212DRYL
2022-11-26 11:00:02FORECAST20235713737.924.4331.16526.7290174694420.20840.52841.492.0184FF5.9156.936320.753017655148.57341301228060.653916287336781634132224DRYL
2022-11-26 07:00:15FORECAST20235713740.121.630.8526.5669024777390.21680.53681.492.0268FF8.1159.136320.638872766838.51838166336850.738297835749181644132227DRYL
2022-11-26 03:00:28FORECAST20235713731.324.6127.95527.0846605459870.23990.55991.492.0499FF-0.7150.336321.003260741518.69426435133890.370469921063161624132221DRYL
2022-11-25 23:00:02FORECAST20235713733.5821.0327.30527.0036966776420.24710.75711.492.2471FF1.58139.5836320.946311562868.66673684725140.468266569245321624132221DRYL
2022-11-25 19:00:01FORECAST20235713729.6221.6225.6227.0796507937030.26210.77211.492.2621FF-2.38135.6236320.999737271558.6925607901840.303085138646561624132221DRYL
2022-11-25 15:00:02FORECAST20235713738.7223.331.0126.8366672216640.2570.7671.492.257FF6.72144.7236320.828787697868.60997541057730.686581450280471634132224DRYL
2022-11-25 11:00:03FORECAST20235713729.8524.5927.2228.64565987940.29920.80921.492.2992FF-2.15135.8536322.098965593549.2267374158990.311986233761241624132221DRYL
2022-11-25 07:00:27FORECAST20235713738.8724.5331.727.8759271611580.29180.82181.492.3118FF6.87150.8736321.559213702358.96376121916580.692411063940781634132224DRYL
2022-11-25 03:00:26FORECAST20235713732.1524.9928.5727.9693547110170.31770.87771.492.3677FF0.15144.1536321.62478324228.9956376463550.406312416341531624132221DRYL
2022-11-24 23:00:03FORECAST20235713738.2425.0331.63527.5053475104510.30770.86771.492.3577FF6.24148.2436321.298979314818.83744008080730.667617317869661634132224DRYL
2022-11-24 19:00:03FORECAST20235713731.6425.9728.80528.4598682501820.3250.9851.492.475FF-0.36142.6436321.968781408559.1631890995590.384691602100571624132221DRYL
2022-11-24 15:00:03FORECAST20235713731.3626.0828.7228.6901304248670.36560.97561.492.4656FF-0.64142.3636322.130116991159.24195507025370.37296743051841624132221DRYL
2022-11-24 11:00:03FORECAST20235713738.3925.2231.80526.5448894697680.38081.02081.492.5108FF6.39148.3936320.623369820868.51091191331940.673592778249241634142232DRYL
2022-11-24 07:00:28FORECAST20235713732.825.2729.03527.7919652744680.37321.07321.492.5632FF0.8139.836321.500274099538.93512445350610.434279285966351624142228DRYL
2022-11-24 03:00:32FORECAST20235713732.9325.429.16527.9540267937090.40881.07881.492.5688FF0.93139.9336321.614026834678.99040712336890.439917102924691624142228DRYL
2022-11-23 23:00:05FORECAST20235713730.9225.7828.3526.7164562281670.51661.10661.492.5966FF-1.08141.9236320.744174986398.56914771146340.354782767088471624142228DRYL
2022-11-23 19:00:04FORECAST20235713732.525.2628.8826.2306873578150.52361.02361.492.5136FF0.5142.536320.401994402598.40436454399470.421321686779871624142228DRYL
2022-11-23 15:00:07FORECAST20235713739.3725.5832.47526.2642124333590.55251.03251.492.5225FF7.37149.3736320.42562337628.41572664144390.711488921547821644142236DRYL
2022-11-23 11:00:03FORECAST20235713736.5726.4731.5225.36705330850.57681.07681.492.5668FF4.57145.5736319.79259816728.11219588537110.598516312117321634142232DRYL
2022-11-23 07:00:34FORECAST20235713738.1325.5131.8223.9156978842870.38640.90641.492.3964FF6.13147.1336318.765479099717.62349889408880.6632079851831634132224DRYL
2022-11-23 03:00:09FORECAST20235713738.1325.7931.9623.6797699027880.28620.79621.52.2962FF6.13147.1336318.598155633867.54433101686270.6632079851831634132224DRYL
2022-11-22 23:00:04FORECAST20235713737.529.5933.54522.0456597076770.09210.45211.131.5821FF5.5140.536317.436465043866.99809628716470.637536989978231634122216DRYL
2022-11-22 19:00:16FORECAST20235713737.7625.5231.6422.5231914637540.10130.47131.131.6013FF5.76142.7636317.776441638847.15733963770210.648214345183361634122216DRYL
2022-11-22 15:00:03FORECAST20235713737.2627.6532.45523.5269541635870.14510.64511.141.7851FF5.26144.2636318.489723027837.49309311524920.627584917343781634132224DRYL
2022-11-22 11:00:05FORECAST20235713731.9225.9928.95524.7733035016380.14510.67511.151.8251FF-0.079999999999998137.9236319.372861149967.91192081945460.396522156971551624132221DRYL
2022-11-22 07:00:24FORECAST20235713731.9126.0128.9624.1710711893190.14510.56511.411.9751FF-0.09140.9136318.946480493347.7092780855870.39609792128881624132221DRYL
2022-11-22 03:00:13FORECAST20235713731.925.8928.89524.7772162240350.13150.63151.412.0415FF-0.1136.936319.375629226617.9132390220350.395673808591211624132221DRYL
2022-11-21 23:00:07FORECAST20235713735.6625.2330.44525.0019092134210.0720.5321.461.992FF3.66139.6636319.53454335727.98897364356890.559355940287581634132224DRYL
2022-11-21 19:00:08FORECAST20235713736.1325.2330.6825.5999191391790.06280.52281.572.0928FF4.13136.1336319.957044275498.19087446146340.579679529101611634132224DRYL
2022-11-21 15:00:05FORECAST20235713736.1925.2230.70525.0785196886540.06280.53281.361.8928FF4.19137.1936319.588705390528.01481164040760.582259981669041634132224DRYL
2022-11-21 11:00:05FORECAST20235713736.7125.9831.34527.1164215239160.60951.02951.262.2895FF4.71137.7136321.025597899018.70506543259670.604464358788041634142232DRYL
2022-11-21 07:00:15FORECAST20235713736.7225.9831.3528.7921183542070.60951.04951.322.3695FF4.72127.7236322.201545745299.27686503900670.604888307690141634142232DRYL
2022-11-21 03:00:10FORECAST20235713736.4726.2431.35529.2637740950650.71471.16471.392.5547FF4.47131.4736322.531636267759.43849294225110.594253603524341634142232DRYL
2022-11-20 23:00:07FORECAST20235713736.4925.9731.2336.4391631438881.77062.22061.173.3906TF4.49133.4936327.504901372311.9340045315280.59510705711581634151220DRYL
2022-11-20 19:00:06FORECAST20235713737.6325.6831.65537.6242850053451.86392.28391.093.3739TF5.63135.6336328.31762342912.3527158361710.642889648874871634151220DRYL
2022-11-20 15:00:03FORECAST20235713737.1823.4230.338.0839644570611.86392.43391.223.6539TF5.18133.1836328.6322003023212.5156170357590.624248161879551634151220DRYL
2022-11-20 11:00:07FORECAST20235713732.527.2329.86535.5918931740921.39971.49971.152.6497FF0.5129.536326.9223667472311.6357859534890.421321686779871624141214DRYL
2022-11-20 07:00:20FORECAST20235713733.327.6430.4733.8787646395011.39971.49971.162.6597FF1.3128.336325.7406800776611.0356918338620.456026201118121624141214DRYL
2022-11-20 03:00:17FORECAST20235713736.9730.7833.87522.6908030225770.53020.57021.241.8102FF4.97144.9736317.895674199957.21330812500030.615445466501431634132224DRYL
2022-11-19 23:00:03FORECAST20235713736.632.0434.3223.1807781146620.22670.23671.041.2767FF4.6149.636318.24393311367.37714199984390.599792867331861634122216DRYL
2022-11-19 19:00:11FORECAST20235713741.1832.3336.75523.4217562676390.22210.23211.061.2921FF9.18155.1836318.415053884347.45783978402610.775479949457281644122218DRYL
2022-11-19 15:00:10FORECAST20235713737.2932.8635.07523.8711372408860.48770.58771.141.7277FF5.29147.2936318.733883740537.60854028209070.6288337518961634132224DRYL
2022-11-19 11:00:05FORECAST20235713739.8535.7137.7822.1193999897830.20210.20211.421.6221FF7.85151.8536317.488991033517.0226659850230.729262195997251644122218DRYL
2022-11-19 07:00:28FORECAST20235713739.835.0337.41523.0861942397140.19790.19791.131.3279FF7.8144.836318.176739618217.34549001338510.727436578403391644122218DRYL
2022-11-19 03:00:42FORECAST20235713739.3236.9238.1224.3325891635290.08690.08691.251.3369FF7.32149.3236319.060899279977.76357778032570.70960641061278164411229DRYL