MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 25, 2022

[ Thursday, November 24, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 26, 2022 ]

DAY 56 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/26/2022 07:00:13 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.28°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.59°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.962
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 146

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.32 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.32 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.49 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 26 in
SWE DAY: 37
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 321.38 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.40 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 136

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-26 07:00:13OBSERVATION20235613650.2800822.8999236.5926.1229323809520.320000000000050.320000000000051.491.8100000000001FF18.28008146.2800837321.37881298324 8.39535700023190.9615506120650716 54122220DRYL
2022-11-26 03:00:25OBSERVATION20235613650.2800822.8999236.5926.1229323809520.320000000000050.320000000000051.491.8100000000001FF18.28008146.2800837321.37881298324 8.39535700023190.9615506120650716 54122220DRYL
2022-11-25 11:00:01FORECAST20235613637.3424.6931.01527.4130921045730.5110.5111.492.001FF5.34133.3437322.283491361018.83478703246290.591619663212161634132224DRYL
2022-11-25 07:00:25FORECAST20235613643.2624.834.0326.889720140950.52670.52671.492.0167FF11.26139.2637321.916852835378.65625408139860.824910630982981644132227DRYL
2022-11-25 03:00:24FORECAST20235613643.3924.934.14526.6309573013790.55620.55621.492.0462FF11.39139.3937321.735401187268.56812173135990.828861704947511644132227DRYL
2022-11-24 23:00:02FORECAST20235613640.4225.1332.77526.5816546978830.55930.55931.492.0493FF8.42137.4237321.70081531218.55133998865390.724803363709671644132227DRYL
2022-11-24 19:00:01FORECAST20235613640.525.6733.08527.0310628622010.65580.65581.492.1458FF8.5137.537322.015915902928.7044324654010.727963064058771644132227DRYL
2022-11-24 15:00:02FORECAST20235613640.7125.7133.2127.0576035372010.60950.60951.492.0995FF8.71137.7137322.034513536588.71348219256820.736170600616651644132227DRYL
2022-11-24 11:00:02FORECAST20235613640.2525.7733.0125.8229638394080.63910.63911.492.1291FF8.25137.2537321.168045650278.29351082920040.718029660190931644132227DRYL
2022-11-24 07:00:27FORECAST20235613640.2225.6232.9226.1702861769260.69940.69941.492.1894FF8.22134.2237321.41207057598.41144586768970.716826025567981644132227DRYL
2022-11-24 03:00:31FORECAST20235613640.3225.6732.99526.1193708976490.66870.66871.492.1587FF8.32134.3237321.376311514928.39414707817650.720828529760961644132227DRYL
2022-11-23 23:00:04FORECAST2023561364125.5233.2624.341271546930.59150.59151.492.0815FF913837320.124603110947.79223989317660.747293780631671644132227DRYL
2022-11-23 19:00:03FORECAST20235613639.7725.8632.81523.9821655744930.5020.5021.491.992FF7.77136.7737319.871120481867.67120217389460.698482585744091634132224DRYL
2022-11-23 15:00:05FORECAST20235613639.725.5832.6423.8522526335630.48390.48391.491.9739FF7.7136.737319.779361687987.62745812198120.695581815486911634122216DRYL
2022-11-23 11:00:03FORECAST20235613638.8625.7532.30523.7563137257650.50020.50021.491.9902FF6.86135.8637319.711579650297.59516858793220.659853887798921634132224DRYL
2022-11-23 07:00:34FORECAST20235613638.6925.4732.0823.4126523005110.51610.51611.492.0061FF6.69135.6937319.468642958267.47960825849810.652431472837191634132224DRYL
2022-11-23 03:00:09FORECAST20235613638.6325.6832.15523.5182212752020.50710.51711.492.0071FF6.63135.6337319.543292980027.51508987131080.649797609050041634132224DRYL
2022-11-22 23:00:03FORECAST20235613638.4628.0133.23522.1153835535890.35610.38611.11.4861FF6.46130.4637318.549681015127.04484837652260.642296161657321634122216DRYL
2022-11-22 19:00:15FORECAST20235613639.4226.9933.20522.4710292801310.36670.39671.11.4967FF7.42132.4237318.8019154297.16380717616690.683856788730831634122216DRYL
2022-11-22 15:00:03FORECAST20235613638.7227.333.0123.102521553020.49510.53511.11.6351FF6.72133.7237319.2492272327.37546215291230.653745661508521634132224DRYL
2022-11-22 11:00:04FORECAST20235613638.7328.5633.64524.0176166057010.52750.57751.11.6775FF6.73132.7337319.896154637367.68314319571830.654183314520121634132224DRYL
2022-11-22 07:00:23FORECAST20235613640.1228.5834.3523.4050538374470.42250.46251.371.8325FF8.12136.1237319.463269154447.47705501364630.712796224407121644122218DRYL
2022-11-22 03:00:12FORECAST20235613638.9628.633.7824.0857291531380.50140.55141.361.9114FF6.96131.9637319.94424677447.70609047191280.664191492517471634132224DRYL
2022-11-21 23:00:06FORECAST20235613639.2629.734.4824.6673111379960.4570.4971.421.917FF7.26131.2637320.354544958817.902285234970.677071841034251634132224DRYL
2022-11-21 19:00:07FORECAST20235613638.4729.7334.125.3421496976650.46430.51431.522.0343FF6.47127.4737320.829875335738.13051872824140.642738981156031634132224DRYL
2022-11-21 15:00:05FORECAST20235613638.4729.7634.11524.8183347716610.47430.50431.331.8343FF6.47128.4737320.46099098597.95330815554630.642738981156031634132224DRYL
2022-11-21 11:00:05FORECAST2023561364129.1735.08523.4380212536580.41880.43881.241.6788FF912837319.486583700847.48813333903910.747293780631671644122218DRYL
2022-11-21 07:00:14FORECAST20235613635.9429.6632.825.0476830632080.43810.47811.281.7581FF3.94117.9437320.622564532758.03085237932940.52615277855881634122216DRYL
2022-11-21 03:00:10FORECAST20235613635.9927.9331.9625.1034626400540.44680.48681.351.8368FF3.99121.9937320.661846451728.04972268249160.528513955648871634122216DRYL
2022-11-20 23:00:06FORECAST20235613636.1929.5532.8725.3120602728530.40570.52571.091.6157FF4.19124.1937320.808698849588.1203291213360.537947820528561634132224DRYL
2022-11-20 19:00:06FORECAST20235613635.8526.2831.06526.2134916368870.38450.50451.011.5145FF3.85124.8537321.442411212998.42612795807250.521900399299411634132224DRYL
2022-11-20 15:00:03FORECAST20235613635.1225.9830.5526.9147083898350.48530.62531.161.7853FF3.12123.1237321.934368971838.66476966154240.487359155660871624132221DRYL
2022-11-20 11:00:07FORECAST20235613642.4332.1637.29525.1843182185760.09860.13861.111.2486FF10.43124.4337320.718777883718.07708376089610.79834222225481644122218DRYL
2022-11-20 07:00:19FORECAST20235613641.8932.113724.0666522226740.09860.13861.121.2586FF9.89121.8937319.930777989947.69966276921360.779830565199011644122218DRYL
2022-11-20 03:00:17FORECAST20235613646.2934.8840.58522.5049998039630.03880.07881.21.2788FF14.29135.2937318.825996404737.17517898658690.902194318116791654112210DRYL
2022-11-19 23:00:03FORECAST20235613648.837.24323.323723690470.00930.03931.011.0493FF16.8139.837319.405744150317.44973132171080.944386981595641654112210DRYL
2022-11-19 19:00:10FORECAST20235613648.837.24323.4836524825610.00930.03931.031.0693FF16.8140.837319.518850870557.50346965547110.944386981595641654112210DRYL
2022-11-19 15:00:09FORECAST20235613647.9935.9341.9623.1129271152480.10250.13251.111.2425FF15.99136.9937319.256591910287.37895433988480.932713987434931654122220DRYL
2022-11-19 11:00:05FORECAST20235613647.1737.7742.4722.462050656450.00070.14071.281.4207FF15.17139.1737318.795550328087.16080180052010.919060253327171654122220DRYL
2022-11-19 07:00:28FORECAST20235613647.1437.7742.45523.3233929063810.00070.14070.991.1307FF15.14132.1437319.405510161687.44962020996380.918523853821691654122220DRYL
2022-11-19 03:00:41FORECAST20235613647.2837.1742.22524.4643904968620.00080.14081.111.2508FF15.28137.2837320.211456044387.83377810223860.92100433417381654122220DRYL
2022-11-18 23:00:03FORECAST20235613650.5237.9344.22523.75460829707800.041.191.23FF18.52133.5237319.710374594187.59459471699670.963876523895261654112210DRYL
2022-11-18 19:00:07FORECAST20235613650.0236.5343.27523.85411422202300.041.121.16FF18.02139.0237319.780676760147.62808478943230.958893293489571654112210DRYL
2022-11-18 15:00:11FORECAST20235613650.7639.445.0822.56596234597700.060.941FF18.76141.7637318.869206233337.1955905011530.96608698532531654112210DRYL
2022-11-18 11:00:04FORECAST20235613642.6537.940.27523.634460701250.00130.10130.760.8613FF10.65134.6537319.625465149447.55417549519330.805609059800871644122218DRYL
2022-11-18 07:00:40FORECAST20235613637.8136.637.20523.79477678506100.10.770.87FF5.81131.8137319.738756266127.60811233488510.613127355343641634122216DRYL
2022-11-18 03:00:28FORECAST20235613637.4936.4936.9927.2929580027900.521.071.59FF5.49125.4937322.199376736358.79377405779030.598517228331991634132224DRYL