MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, November 17, 2022

[ Wednesday, November 16, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, November 18, 2022 ]

DAY 48 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/18/2022 07:00:27 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.79°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 16.54°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.713
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 42

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 13.45 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.45 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 25 in
SWE DAY: 45
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 328.91 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 8.23 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 128

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-18 07:00:27OBSERVATION20234812840.7899416.5399828.6649625.0212754166670013.4513.45TT8.7899441.7899445328.90692051353 8.22967064461660.7132322052843116 4411229WETL
2022-11-18 03:00:19OBSERVATION20234812840.7899416.5399828.6649625.0212754166670013.4513.45TT8.7899441.7899445328.90692051353 8.22967064461660.7132322052843116 4411229WETL
2022-11-17 11:00:02FORECAST2023481283521.9528.47524.9832496100940.00310.003113.4513.4531TT33645328.880938414628.21651457641430.44552114217146162411227WETL
2022-11-17 07:00:18FORECAST20234812834.9522.2928.6225.249037782210.00230.002313.4513.4523TT2.9535.9545329.062492418998.30851130379540.44313366155734162411227WETL
2022-11-17 03:00:31FORECAST20234812828.9622.4625.7125.2689783333330.00280.002813.4513.4528TT-3.0429.9645329.076108425058.31541705381020.19293808353693161411226WETL
2022-11-16 23:00:02FORECAST20234812835.3522.8929.1225.9503080013.4513.45TT3.3535.3545329.540926645898.55168854506630.46228405533293162411227WETL
2022-11-16 19:00:02FORECAST20234812833.2122.8428.02525.9929480013.4513.45TT1.2133.2145329.569989862468.56649560885560.36191568092817162411227WETL
2022-11-16 15:00:02FORECAST20234812833.4721.8427.65525.9911986666670.00030.000313.4513.4503TT1.4733.4745329.568797587298.56588809242580.37375798600679162411227WETL
2022-11-16 11:00:10FORECAST20234812834.2421.8628.0525.1394920.00030.000313.4513.4503TT2.2434.2445328.987678972958.2705831236390.40949414690136162411227WETL
2022-11-16 07:00:10FORECAST20234812834.1822.128.1425.2664879166670013.4513.45TT2.1831.1845329.074407931588.31455455168750.40667807960475162411227WETL
2022-11-16 03:00:29FORECAST20234812834.2422.1728.20525.2812479166670013.4513.45TT2.2427.2445329.084486121648.319666479170.40949414690136162411227WETL
2022-11-15 23:00:05FORECAST20234812833.9421.5227.7325.9339453333330013.4513.45TT1.9428.9445329.529773096158.54600712118140.39546336522489162411227WETL
2022-11-15 19:00:02FORECAST20234812833.7621.5227.6425.9209346666670013.4513.45TT1.7629.7645329.520904093678.5414898263130.38710821719218162411227WETL
2022-11-15 15:00:03FORECAST20234812833.5722.1427.85525.9647773333330013.4513.45TT1.5729.5745329.550789225958.55671286227590.37834534291167162411227WETL
2022-11-15 11:00:04FORECAST20234812836.0122.4529.2325.1565853333330013.4513.45TT4.0132.0145328.999354103678.27650032612040.49405309164853162411227WETL
2022-11-15 07:00:09FORECAST20234812836.2223.8830.0525.21500450.00020.000213.4513.4502TT4.2231.2245329.039251880678.29672621684780.50417898691972163411228WETL
2022-11-15 03:00:11FORECAST20234812836.0923.7529.9225.3163018333330.00020.000213.4513.4502TT4.0926.0945329.108419569168.33180808570420.49791047787937162411227WETL
2022-11-14 23:00:03FORECAST20234812836.122.5329.31526.1489320013.4513.45TT4.138.145329.676280983128.62068265344060.49839267229134162411227WETL
2022-11-14 19:00:02FORECAST20234812836.3924.1830.28526.08940013.4513.45TT4.3938.3945329.635719464648.59999813940080.51237447186825163411228WETL
2022-11-14 15:00:12FORECAST20234812836.6825.0830.8825.5509880013.4513.45TT4.6846.6845329.268599253378.41313802829970.52634107713633163411228WETL
2022-11-14 11:00:13FORECAST20234812834.4225.0529.73525.1040880013.4513.45TT2.4244.4245328.96349563328.25832854316350.41796984459424162411227WETL
2022-11-14 07:00:10FORECAST20234812835.9523.4829.71524.60727750.00180.001813.4513.4518TT3.9545.9545328.623910800268.08653976619730.49116039712328162411227WETL
2022-11-14 03:00:14FORECAST20234812836.0523.1329.5924.7331964495980.00180.001813.4513.4518TT4.0538.0545328.710020713348.13004951725450.49598173780218162411227WETL
2022-11-13 23:00:04FORECAST20234812840.3123.5431.92525.2358346666670013.4513.45TT8.3157.3145329.053476556428.30393913086960.69316359691089163411228WETL
2022-11-13 19:00:05FORECAST20234812841.2423.8532.54525.3231920013.4513.45TT9.2457.2445329.113123655728.33419482005350.73146722576439164411229WETL
2022-11-13 15:00:04FORECAST20234812836.7723.3730.0725.3689480013.4513.45TT4.7751.7745329.14436031588.35004616134470.53066976919198163411228WETL
2022-11-13 11:00:05FORECAST20234812834.623.6429.1225.0219240013.4513.45TT2.642.645328.907363652818.22989505636090.42648380842962162411227WETL
2022-11-13 07:00:15FORECAST20234812837.0524.1830.61525.0895258683530013.4513.45TT5.0554.0545328.953548075738.25328855393240.54411136267951163411228WETL
2022-11-13 03:00:12FORECAST20234812834.6424.1529.39525.5387840013.4513.45TT2.6444.6445329.260272045168.40890696754270.42838060845231162411227WETL
2022-11-12 23:00:17FORECAST20234812842.7224.9833.8526.3090333333330013.4513.45TT10.7272.7245329.785333964648.67633334412010.7870369952796164411229WETL
2022-11-12 19:00:04FORECAST20234812839.5624.9932.27525.8950426666670013.4513.45TT7.5668.5645329.503253379538.53250080506840.66062952763174163411228WETL
2022-11-12 15:00:04FORECAST20234812834.9824.1929.58526.2306413333330013.4513.45TT2.9862.9845329.731942815268.64908032813030.44456590787169162411227WETL
2022-11-12 11:00:03FORECAST20234812832.122.5327.31526.104678228880.0230.03313.4513.483TT0.159.145329.646129714478.60530614559180.31294771545825162411227WETL
2022-11-12 07:00:12FORECAST20234812832.1222.5227.3226.6597616762950.0230.03313.4513.483TT0.1240.1245330.024077554348.79836325503790.31380460631007162411227WETL
2022-11-12 03:00:27FORECAST20234812832.3621.0226.6926.7565792829040.03220.042213.4513.4922TT0.3648.3645330.089944623538.83207777380870.32416455178884162411227WETL
2022-11-11 23:00:04FORECAST20234812834.4920.627.54528.5391860347910.32090.340913.4613.8009TT2.4970.4945331.2997995869.45502661367380.421276495377911624122214WETL
2022-11-11 19:00:02FORECAST20234812834.9919.5827.28528.3304564406710.32340.343413.4613.8034TT2.9967.9945331.158417837779.38186913151450.445043485135181624122214WETL
2022-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20234812834.9819.627.2928.2064959657840.32340.343413.4613.8034TT2.9866.9845331.074418464949.33844924880570.444565907871691624122214WETL
2022-11-11 11:00:06FORECAST20234812835.3419.0327.18531.9029829501340.54430.544313.4614.0043TT3.3465.3445333.5679401282710.6418123066240.461804039768121624131210.5WETL
2022-11-11 07:00:11FORECAST20234812835.7619.1227.4432.1405154364290.54430.544313.4614.0043TT3.7648.7645333.727372154710.7261697562970.482003988492691624131210.5WETL
2022-11-11 03:00:08FORECAST20234812835.3720.3127.8431.6351631605040.51390.513913.4813.9939TT3.3757.3745333.3880638277410.5467857949550.463244250571071624131210.5WETL
2022-11-10 23:00:03FORECAST20234812840.2222.1431.1830.2156065234780.20870.208713.4713.6787TT8.2286.2245332.432598541410.0446525931040.68933238624551163412128WETL
2022-11-10 19:00:03FORECAST20234812832.1823.5227.8530.262482915750.18040.180413.4713.6504TT0.1871.1845332.4642048110210.0611923181920.31638129140786162412127WETL
2022-11-10 15:00:03FORECAST20234812832.1526.429.27530.0521383074110.16540.165413.4713.6354TT0.1574.1545332.322351129469.98699725878650.31509182510461624122214WETL
2022-11-10 11:00:04FORECAST20234812831.3326.3128.8230.2286045754540.50050.600513.4914.0905TT-0.6759.3345332.4413628167910.0492385011140.280758884311561624131210.5WETL
2022-11-10 07:00:10FORECAST20234812831.3925.1128.2530.0631589950410.47650.576513.5114.0865TT-0.6163.3945332.329785220119.99088317186030.283208709546511624132221WETL
2022-11-10 03:00:19FORECAST20234812830.8329.9530.3929.220281596690.31910.419113.5213.9391TT-1.1751.8345331.760614611849.69413858164890.260751344707731624122214WETL