Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 16, 2022

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DAY 47 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/17/2022 07:00:16 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.11°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.81°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.96°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.984 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 22 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 40 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.13 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.13 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 25 in SWE DAY: 46 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 330.10 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 8.34 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 127 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 10.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-17 07:00:16	OBSERVATION	2023	47	127	54.10994	41.81	47.95997	25.268978333333	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	22.10994	40.10994	46	330.09570076069	8.3411811104483	0.98377958333883	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-17 03:00:27	OBSERVATION	2023	47	127	54.10994	41.81	47.95997	25.268978333333	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	22.10994	40.10994	46	330.09570076069	8.3411811104483	0.98377958333883	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-16 11:00:04	FORECAST	2023	47	127	52.53	35.53	44.03	25.156602666667	0.0024	0.0024	15.13	15.1324	T	T	20.53	38.53	46	330.01924934616	8.3021631281529	0.97398245550139	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-16 07:00:09	FORECAST	2023	47	127	50	35.5	42.75	25.28332525	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	18	36	46	330.10545968442	8.346163704002	0.94836868576652	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-16 03:00:28	FORECAST	2023	47	127	46.03	35.6	40.815	25.29841325	0.003	0.003	15.13	15.133	T	T	14.03	32.03	46	330.11572231719	8.3514039635026	0.87247086807774	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-15 23:00:02	FORECAST	2023	47	127	50.48	35.13	42.805	25.949197333333	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	18.48	34.48	46	330.55800182837	8.5777148195567	0.95436111075622	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-15 19:00:01	FORECAST	2023	47	127	50.57	34.89	42.73	25.933617333333	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	18.57	34.57	46	330.54742204067	8.5722903537225	0.95542005431907	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-15 15:00:02	FORECAST	2023	47	127	50.58	34.39	42.485	25.9791	0.0008	0.0008	15.13	15.1308	T	T	18.58	34.58	46	330.57830642345	8.5881268804055	0.95553648684348	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-15 11:00:03	FORECAST	2023	47	127	50.63	34.58	42.605	25.221474666667	0.0008	0.0008	15.13	15.1308	T	T	18.63	34.63	46	330.06338572832	8.324685321541	0.95611499083366	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-15 07:00:09	FORECAST	2023	47	127	50.7	34.46	42.58	25.282463166667	0.0002	0.0002	15.13	15.1302	T	T	18.7	33.7	46	330.10487329631	8.345864300251	0.95691471292306	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-15 03:00:11	FORECAST	2023	47	127	50.39	34.4	42.395	25.380863166667	0.0002	0.0002	15.13	15.1302	T	T	18.39	29.39	46	330.17179657548	8.3800451903747	0.95328210497348	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-14 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	47	127	49.8	33.65	41.725	26.202286666667	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	17.8	40.8	46	330.72980657692	8.6658772011397	0.94569472627727	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-14 19:00:02	FORECAST	2023	47	127	50.08	34.4	42.24	26.159045333333	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	18.08	41.08	46	330.7004608651	8.6508083475243	0.94940860677444	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-14 15:00:10	FORECAST	2023	47	127	53.99	34.72	44.355	25.664530666667	0.0006	0.0006	15.13	15.1306	T	T	21.99	48.99	46	330.36462940459	8.478653162536	0.98316677021849	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-14 11:00:12	FORECAST	2023	47	127	53.68	35.11	44.395	25.128961333333	0.0006	0.0006	15.13	15.1306	T	T	21.68	48.68	46	330.00044104986	8.2925683231248	0.98149064244302	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-14 07:00:10	FORECAST	2023	47	127	53.95	36.34	45.145	24.657844166667	0.0004	0.0004	15.13	15.1304	T	T	21.95	48.95	46	329.67967047892	8.1291899395871	0.98295805028592	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-14 03:00:13	FORECAST	2023	47	127	53.71	35.8	44.755	24.773136166667	0.0004	0.0004	15.13	15.1304	T	T	21.71	40.71	46	329.75820507116	8.1691449163034	0.98165881931206	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-13 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	47	127	53.81	34.56	44.185	25.339209333333	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	21.81	55.81	46	330.14346923583	8.3655744769995	0.9822100572736	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-13 19:00:05	FORECAST	2023	47	127	53.54	34.09	43.815	25.608825333333	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	21.54	54.54	46	330.32677273308	8.459280625845	0.98068838851335	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-13 15:00:04	FORECAST	2023	47	127	52.52	33.4	42.96	25.54082	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	20.52	53.52	46	330.28054986853	8.4356360736932	0.97390739690613	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-13 11:00:04	FORECAST	2023	47	127	46.09	33.46	39.775	25.086922666667	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	14.09	47.09	46	329.97183368631	8.2779778738666	0.87401206789477	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2022-11-13 07:00:15	FORECAST	2023	47	127	53.81	33.56	43.685	25.201428535019	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	21.81	55.81	46	330.04974789752	8.3177251346406	0.9822100572736	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-13 03:00:12	FORECAST	2023	47	127	53.9	33.53	43.715	25.564696	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	21.9	48.9	46	330.29677916867	8.4439367492262	0.98269404909858	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-12 23:00:15	FORECAST	2023	47	127	54.39	33.68	44.035	26.516821333333	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	22.39	69.39	46	330.94316842709	8.7755608686685	0.98513664680755	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-12 19:00:04	FORECAST	2023	47	127	53.99	32.99	43.49	26.051881333333	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	21.99	67.99	46	330.62772017028	8.6134741313866	0.98316677021849	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-12 15:00:04	FORECAST	2023	47	127	53.48	33.84	43.66	26.368565333333	0	0	15.13	15.13	T	T	21.48	67.48	46	330.84262149866	8.7238452800386	0.98033564455749	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-12 11:00:03	FORECAST	2023	47	127	52.77	30.58	41.675	26.08086284951	0.0086	0.0086	15.13	15.1386	T	T	20.77	65.77	46	330.64739417412	8.623569339003	0.97573051852701	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-12 07:00:12	FORECAST	2023	47	127	45.25	30.63	37.94	26.635695242927	0.0096	0.0096	15.13	15.1396	T	T	13.25	47.25	46	331.02376113316	8.8170480197102	0.85124286661238	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2022-11-12 03:00:26	FORECAST	2023	47	127	52.27	32.91	42.59	26.663077262463	0.0096	0.0096	15.13	15.1396	T	T	20.27	55.27	46	331.04232181808	8.8266070037808	0.97197142932241	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-11 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	47	127	50.85	30.41	40.63	27.616252657972	0.0194	0.0194	15.14	15.1594	T	T	18.85	74.85	46	331.68762026725	9.159969124822	0.95858889194291	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-11 19:00:02	FORECAST	2023	47	127	50.85	30.22	40.535	27.642692474767	0.0195	0.0195	15.14	15.1595	T	T	18.85	71.85	46	331.70549772758	9.1692330658729	0.95858889194291	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-11 15:00:02	FORECAST	2023	47	127	50.69	30.22	40.455	27.493738310553	0.0195	0.0195	15.14	15.1595	T	T	18.69	70.69	46	331.60476569292	9.1170546504936	0.95680119063454	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-11 11:00:05	FORECAST	2023	47	127	52.55	31.44	41.995	27.84406459946	0	0	15.14	15.14	T	T	20.55	68.55	46	331.84161746036	9.2398194333554	0.97413203232816	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-11 07:00:10	FORECAST	2023	47	127	52.55	31.57	42.06	27.959016045117	0	0	15.14	15.14	T	T	20.55	51.55	46	331.91928896175	9.2801367257656	0.97413203232816	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-11 03:00:07	FORECAST	2023	47	127	52.75	32.17	42.46	27.764465265815	0	0	15.16	15.16	T	T	20.75	60.75	46	331.78781972436	9.2119113963575	0.97558870548597	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-10 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	47	127	49.77	26.66	38.215	28.806999979257	0.001	0.001	15.15	15.151	T	T	17.77	84.77	46	332.49156275537	9.5780844413973	0.94528437889873	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2022-11-10 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	47	127	49.84	27.07	38.455	29.008002917831	0.001	0.001	15.15	15.151	T	T	17.84	77.84	46	332.6270317753	9.6488459082873	0.94623807681501	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2022-11-10 15:00:03	FORECAST	2023	47	127	49.87	27.12	38.495	28.911467374023	0.001	0.001	15.15	15.151	T	T	17.87	80.87	46	332.5619787937	9.6148547997347	0.94664276660228	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	L
2022-11-10 11:00:04	FORECAST	2023	47	127	47.11	30.11	38.61	28.875565409669	0.1001	0.1001	15.17	15.2701	T	T	15.11	67.11	46	332.53778125372	9.602216453778	0.89824915816802	16	5	4	1	2	2	2	20	WET	L
2022-11-10 07:00:10	FORECAST	2023	47	127	47.12	30.06	38.59	28.756477284251	0.1001	0.1001	15.19	15.2901	T	T	15.12	71.12	46	332.45750133011	9.5603065849781	0.89846872397333	16	5	4	1	2	2	2	20	WET	L
2022-11-10 03:00:19	FORECAST	2023	47	127	46.32	29.77	38.045	29.22028159669	0.1004	0.1004	15.2	15.3004	T	T	14.32	60.32	46	332.77002518157	9.7236338427432	0.87979984480633	16	5	4	1	2	2	2	20	WET	L
2022-11-09 23:00:04	FORECAST	2023	47	127	46.09	26.78	36.435	30.582519799152	0.0312	0.0312	15.2	15.2312	T	T	14.09	82.09	46	333.68581217547	10.204952957552	0.87401206789477	16	5	4	1	1	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-11-09 19:00:05	FORECAST	2023	47	127	46.42	30.15	38.285	30.758184863593	0	0	15.19	15.19	T	T	14.42	74.42	46	333.80367541278	10.267195156493	0.88225710302516	16	5	4	1	1	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-11-09 15:00:05	FORECAST	2023	47	127	46.45	31.32	38.885	30.865044008986	0	0	15.21	15.21	T	T	14.45	70.45	46	333.87534729884	10.305077287894	0.88298732090738	16	5	4	1	1	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-11-09 11:00:11	FORECAST	2023	47	127	45.2	40.5	42.85	29.73663263037	0	0	15.17	15.17	T	T	13.2	80.2	46	333.11752360103	9.9057934220627	0.84980610198653	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-09 07:00:29	FORECAST	2023	47	127	44.45	34.71	39.58	30.286575949992	0	0	15.17	15.17	T	T	12.45	72.45	46	333.48712839787	10.100183242567	0.8271506013062	16	4	4	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-11-09 03:00:21	FORECAST	2023	47	127	41.28	38.6	39.94	30.344663058491	0	0	15.17	15.17	T	T	9.28	70.28	46	333.52613732716	10.120738258393	0.70938504653938	16	4	4	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L