Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 14, 2022

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DAY 45 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/15/2022 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.94°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.05°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.49°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.590 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 8 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 14 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.37 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.37 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 27 in SWE DAY: 48 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 333.38 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 9.05 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 125 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 4 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 2 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-15 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2023	45	125	39.93998	27.05	33.49499	27.1357725	0	0	15.37	15.37	T	T	7.93998	13.93998	48	333.38053775362	9.0465384284098	0.59004338040507	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-15 03:00:09	OBSERVATION	2023	45	125	39.93998	27.05	33.49499	27.1357725	0	0	15.37	15.37	T	T	7.93998	13.93998	48	333.38053775362	9.0465384284098	0.59004338040507	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-14 11:00:02	FORECAST	2023	45	125	47.38	32.4	39.89	27.551405333333	0.0031	0.0031	15.37	15.3731	T	T	15.38	21.38	48	333.65964555247	9.1927921379924	0.83288961625809	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-14 07:00:09	FORECAST	2023	45	125	47.55	28.34	37.945	26.983364166667	0.0016	0.0016	15.37	15.3716	T	T	15.55	21.55	48	333.2781179059	8.9929648242363	0.83707769505648	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-14 03:00:11	FORECAST	2023	45	125	40.14	29.33	34.735	27.129706833333	0.0029	0.0029	15.37	15.3729	T	T	8.14	14.14	48	333.37646232554	9.0444056880256	0.59773677194023	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-13 23:00:01	FORECAST	2023	45	125	47.72	29.04	38.38	27.504392	0	0	15.37	15.37	T	T	15.72	29.72	48	333.62808970595	9.1762377614836	0.84119709930166	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-13 19:00:02	FORECAST	2023	45	125	46.98	29.05	38.015	27.538230666667	0	0	15.37	15.37	T	T	14.98	28.98	48	333.6508029569	9.1881527739456	0.82276485479791	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-13 15:00:02	FORECAST	2023	45	125	46.87	30.11	38.49	27.355425333333	0	0	15.37	15.37	T	T	14.87	28.87	48	333.52807681379	9.1238024018498	0.81991416262746	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-13 11:00:03	FORECAST	2023	45	125	45.68	29.14	37.41	26.929954666667	0	0	15.37	15.37	T	T	13.68	27.68	48	333.24221683186	8.9741977923015	0.78726582208829	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-13 07:00:14	FORECAST	2023	45	125	47.46	31.81	39.635	27.097651201686	0.0002	0.0002	15.37	15.3702	T	T	15.46	29.46	48	333.35492359721	9.033135446002	0.83486902841804	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-13 03:00:10	FORECAST	2023	45	125	47.61	31.48	39.545	27.316653333333	0.0006	0.0006	15.37	15.3706	T	T	15.61	21.61	48	333.5020399521	9.110159611331	0.83853944620627	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-12 23:00:12	FORECAST	2023	45	125	47.83	27.74	37.785	28.277306666667	0	0	15.37	15.37	T	T	15.83	41.83	48	334.14640023907	9.4487602311229	0.84382598877805	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-12 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	45	125	47.53	28.16	37.845	28.020428	0	0	15.37	15.37	T	T	15.53	41.53	48	333.97425229483	9.358101490281	0.83658854347186	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-12 15:00:03	FORECAST	2023	45	125	47.51	30.49	39	28.027042666667	0	0	15.37	15.37	T	T	15.51	40.51	48	333.97868654092	9.3604348974398	0.83609844140335	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-12 11:00:02	FORECAST	2023	45	125	46.06	31.06	38.56	27.770828182843	0	0	15.37	15.37	T	T	14.06	39.06	48	333.80687466444	9.2700933625579	0.79804817135337	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-12 07:00:11	FORECAST	2023	45	125	45.2	30.67	37.935	27.96010457626	0	0	15.37	15.37	T	T	13.2	38.2	48	333.93381009862	9.3368242519065	0.77317767085586	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-12 03:00:25	FORECAST	2023	45	125	46.51	26.95	36.73	28.289410595797	0	0	15.37	15.37	T	T	14.51	29.51	48	334.15450894981	9.4530341061181	0.81038535908136	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-11 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	45	125	46.55	26.63	36.59	29.158180657972	0	0	15.38	15.38	T	T	14.55	51.55	48	334.73586811238	9.7602889151239	0.81145914455191	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-11 19:00:02	FORECAST	2023	45	125	44.38	27.67	36.025	29.069219141434	0.0002	0.0002	15.38	15.3802	T	T	12.38	49.38	48	334.67639623354	9.728781503578	0.74793728830374	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-11 15:00:02	FORECAST	2023	45	125	40.54	27.7	34.12	29.199174310553	0	0	15.38	15.38	T	T	8.54	46.54	48	334.76326835569	9.7748110254882	0.61300622199196	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-11 11:00:04	FORECAST	2023	45	125	38.91	26.27	32.59	29.129769932793	0	0	15.38	15.38	T	T	6.91	43.91	48	334.71687665022	9.7502256094439	0.54993996339779	16	3	4	1	1	2	2	8	WET	L
2022-11-11 07:00:10	FORECAST	2023	45	125	37.43	25.83	31.63	29.05218537845	0	0	15.38	15.38	T	T	5.43	36.43	48	334.66500741843	9.7227498352009	0.49151624600608	16	2	4	1	1	2	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-11 03:00:06	FORECAST	2023	45	125	45.44	23.11	34.275	29.112326599148	0	0.01	15.39	15.4	T	T	13.44	37.44	48	334.70521578268	9.7440475563037	0.78028645597518	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-10 23:00:02	FORECAST	2023	45	125	44.92	24.52	34.72	29.928022333144	0.0002	0.0102	15.38	15.3902	T	T	12.92	63.92	48	335.24995590448	10.033368167495	0.76472277945904	16	4	4	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-11-10 19:00:03	FORECAST	2023	45	125	44.32	24.32	34.32	30.124263101047	0	0.01	15.38	15.39	T	T	12.32	57.32	48	335.38084160339	10.103100711511	0.74603405647858	16	4	4	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-11-10 15:00:02	FORECAST	2023	45	125	44.82	26.01	35.415	30.045497912668	0	0.01	15.38	15.39	T	T	12.82	59.82	48	335.32831582707	10.075106213241	0.76166160203777	16	4	4	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-11-10 11:00:03	FORECAST	2023	45	125	43.26	26.22	34.74	30.076373409669	0	0.03	15.38	15.41	T	T	11.26	51.26	48	335.34890687901	10.086078945817	0.71121048113332	16	4	4	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-11-10 07:00:09	FORECAST	2023	45	125	43.26	26.22	34.74	29.968874617584	0	0.04	15.39	15.43	T	T	11.26	55.26	48	335.27720832048	10.04788061829	0.71121048113332	16	4	4	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-11-10 03:00:18	FORECAST	2023	45	125	34.13	25.6	29.865	30.229428263357	0	0.04	15.4	15.44	T	T	2.13	45.13	48	335.45095622803	10.14049061717	0.36371697682239	16	2	4	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2022-11-09 23:00:03	FORECAST	2023	45	125	43.47	28.71	36.09	31.724835154083	0	0.04	15.4	15.44	T	T	11.47	67.47	48	336.44593439798	10.673691807037	0.71828449997875	16	4	4	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-11-09 19:00:04	FORECAST	2023	45	125	41.63	26.21	33.92	31.818827530259	0	0.03	15.4	15.43	T	T	9.63	60.63	48	336.50834665728	10.707301044781	0.65367581093456	16	3	4	1	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-11-09 15:00:04	FORECAST	2023	45	125	41.64	26.28	33.96	31.877744008986	0	0.03	15.42	15.45	T	T	9.64	56.64	48	336.54746043105	10.728373790495	0.65404166262734	16	3	4	1	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-11-09 11:00:10	FORECAST	2023	45	125	43.91	28.36	36.135	31.469347297037	0	0	15.41	15.41	T	T	11.91	63.91	48	336.27621155313	10.582392889097	0.73282985530181	16	4	4	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-11-09 07:00:28	FORECAST	2023	45	125	43.77	28.29	36.03	31.645862616659	0	0	15.41	15.41	T	T	11.77	56.77	48	336.39348400254	10.645461979884	0.72824313484324	16	4	4	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-11-09 03:00:20	FORECAST	2023	45	125	42.62	29.27	35.945	31.498129725158	0	0	15.41	15.41	T	T	10.62	58.62	48	336.29533748043	10.592674165924	0.68915231762527	16	3	4	1	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-11-08 23:00:09	FORECAST	2023	45	125	44.62	27.88	36.25	31.919706777123	0	0.02	15.45	15.47	T	T	12.62	80.62	48	336.57531531965	10.743385373421	0.75547444573553	16	4	4	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-11-08 19:00:08	FORECAST	2023	45	125	45.64	28.05	36.845	31.383981333333	0	0	15.37	15.37	T	T	13.64	84.64	48	336.21947763482	10.551905809994	0.78611164821385	16	4	4	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-11-08 15:00:04	FORECAST	2023	45	125	45.66	27.98	36.82	31.43096432015	0	0	15.37	15.37	T	T	13.66	83.66	48	336.25070388419	10.568683876409	0.78668918941201	16	4	4	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-11-08 11:00:08	FORECAST	2023	45	125	46.44	33.11	39.775	31.167050944986	0.1379	0.1379	15.37	15.5079	T	T	14.44	88.44	48	336.07525110218	10.474474472451	0.80849722411088	16	4	4	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-08 07:00:14	FORECAST	2023	45	125	46.46	33.11	39.785	30.803566419486	0.1379	0.1379	15.37	15.5079	T	T	14.46	87.46	48	335.83340959787	10.34486673843	0.80903786051137	16	4	4	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-08 03:00:14	FORECAST	2023	45	125	45.3	31.14	38.22	31.034698144183	0.0006	0.0406	15.38	15.4206	T	T	13.3	77.3	48	335.9872170789	10.427261862348	0.77615528834897	16	4	4	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2022-11-07 23:00:15	FORECAST	2023	45	125	48.37	34.02	41.195	24.792073081509	0	0.01	15.34	15.35	T	T	16.37	82.37	48	331.80115795758	8.2260385566136	0.85631455115104	16	5	4	1	1	2	2	10	WET	M
2022-11-07 19:00:02	FORECAST	2023	45	125	44.77	29.76	37.265	25.823413960734	0	0.04	15.34	15.38	T	T	12.77	90.77	48	332.49731980349	8.5862159301201	0.76012288489959	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-07 15:00:06	FORECAST	2023	45	125	44.79	33.27	39.03	25.751641074407	0	0.04	15.35	15.39	T	T	12.79	89.79	48	332.44893165332	8.5611055635063	0.7607390201	16	4	4	1	1	2	2	9	WET	L
2022-11-07 11:00:05	FORECAST	2023	45	125	36.57	33.14	34.855	26.712125723534	0	0	15.34	15.34	T	T	4.57	82.57	48	333.09574499722	8.89769541834	0.4575704182308	16	2	4	1	1	2	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-07 07:00:10	FORECAST	2023	45	125	36.64	33.3	34.97	27.421423761538	0	0	15.35	15.35	T	T	4.64	77.64	48	333.57239135306	9.1470298984418	0.46032525385946	16	2	4	1	1	2	2	7	WET	L
2022-11-07 03:00:39	FORECAST	2023	45	125	33.33	32.85	33.09	28.149419622761	0	0	15.42	15.42	T	T	1.33	66.33	48	334.06071042517	9.4036151172356	0.33436868816598	16	2	4	1	1	2	2	7	WET	L