MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, November 12, 2022

[ Friday, November 11, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, November 13, 2022 ]

DAY 43 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/13/2022 07:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.25°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.21°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.73°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.224
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 4

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.91 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.91 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 28 in
SWE DAY: 50
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 335.93 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 9.39 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 123

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-13 07:00:11OBSERVATION20234312332.2500223.2100627.7300427.95270015.9115.91TT0.250024.2500250335.92742203881 9.39007845002420.2236649893516516 1511227WETL
2022-11-13 03:00:08OBSERVATION20234312332.2500223.2100627.7300427.95270015.9115.91TT0.250024.2500250335.92742203881 9.39007845002420.2236649893516516 1511227WETL
2022-11-12 11:00:01FORECAST20234312343.1225.4734.29528.7743441828430.00250.002515.9115.9125TT11.1215.1250336.473582470319.6818066704350.68875460811558163511229WETL
2022-11-12 07:00:10FORECAST20234312343.2324.7133.9728.6951049280350.00360.003615.9115.9136TT11.2315.2350336.420960479289.65363476094310.69321893184628163511229WETL
2022-11-12 03:00:22FORECAST20234312333.2523.2828.26528.9068390759710.00360.003615.9115.9136TT1.255.2550336.56154733759.7289304880450.25957415971644162511228WETL
2022-11-11 23:00:02FORECAST20234312343.8623.0133.43529.7644340941670.00040.010415.9115.9204TT11.8626.8650337.1301990579610.0344895910140.71822366108411164511125WETL
2022-11-11 19:00:01FORECAST20234312343.8725.6234.74529.76020580810.00150.011515.9115.9215TT11.8726.8750337.1273984152610.0329807603870.71861252461912164511125WETL
2022-11-11 15:00:02FORECAST20234312344.0325.6534.8429.7500568093460.00340.013415.9115.9234TT12.0327.0350337.1206760133610.0293592630030.72479890330291164511125WETL
2022-11-11 11:00:03FORECAST20234312344.1624.9334.54529.5766936969260.00350.013515.9115.9235TT12.1627.1650337.005818558159.96751786957650.729775592257081645112210WETL
2022-11-11 07:00:09FORECAST2023431234426.5735.28529.3374907117840.00060.010615.9115.9206TT122850336.847257459919.88225328701990.723644069012491645112210WETL
2022-11-11 03:00:06FORECAST20234312343.826.5435.1729.5153233990580.00060.020615.9115.9306TT11.820.850336.965147058079.945635289630.71588506263281645112210WETL
2022-11-10 23:00:02FORECAST20234312344.1927.7635.97530.4928378560140.00060.010615.9115.9206TT12.1941.1950337.6122151086510.2947545335180.73091764248875164511125WETL
2022-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20234312344.8526.2235.53530.6370285203630.0010.01115.9115.921TT12.8534.8550337.7075265682610.3463551230130.75541523025497164511125WETL
2022-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20234312344.926.3535.62530.6074057587620.0010.01115.9115.921TT12.936.950337.6879484779110.3357520589070.75722096171077164511125WETL
2022-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20234312343.8429.6736.75530.2832857699480.00080.010815.9115.9208TT11.8440.8450337.4736368572510.2198105847720.71744515874398164511125WETL
2022-11-10 07:00:08FORECAST20234312343.4528.8736.1630.3418309165070.00150.021515.9115.9315TT11.4537.4550337.5123605949610.2407429774030.70206169992454164511125WETL
2022-11-10 03:00:17FORECAST20234312343.3529.5136.4330.3874197359320.00150.031515.9115.9415TT11.3537.3550337.5425105925910.2570459480970.69805663608085163511124.5WETL
2022-11-09 23:00:03FORECAST20234312344.5729.1436.85532.1799809474930.00110.031115.9115.9411TT12.5747.5750338.7252510893110.9001721264890.7451710262816164511125WETL
2022-11-09 19:00:04FORECAST20234312340.3829.0234.732.2139002093040.00130.031315.9115.9413TT8.3843.3850338.747579308510.9123807159880.57012353036457163511124.5WETL
2022-11-09 15:00:03FORECAST20234312338.9729.1434.05532.2816383889790.00180.051815.9115.9618TT6.9738.9750338.7921639365110.9367661252180.50569121093107163511124.5WETL
2022-11-09 11:00:08FORECAST20234312343.4328.6836.05532.0538979637040.00180.041815.9115.9518TT11.4343.4350338.6422368821410.8548037072210.70126262463778164511125WETL
2022-11-09 07:00:26FORECAST20234312343.4629.936.6832.0644999499920.00120.041215.9115.9512TT11.4642.4650338.6492183521610.8586178449180.7024608721875164511125WETL
2022-11-09 03:00:19FORECAST20234312343.529.9236.7131.8495817251580.00120.041215.9115.9512TT11.544.550338.5076567138110.7813272770980.70405511652689164511125WETL
2022-11-08 23:00:07FORECAST20234312341.4230.4235.9232.6989254437890.0160.09615.9116.006TT9.4256.4250339.066649204411.087115082810.61657204742645163512129WETL
2022-11-08 19:00:06FORECAST20234312342.7431.0236.8832.4634840.00180.001815.9115.9118TT10.7457.7450338.9118150635211.0022582857250.67312110893962163511124.5WETL
2022-11-08 15:00:04FORECAST20234312342.732.0137.35532.5276869868160.00180.001815.9115.9118TT10.756.750338.9540462701411.025391119990.67145704101737163511124.5WETL
2022-11-08 11:00:07FORECAST20234312346.3530.938.62532.7071749449860.00180.001815.9115.9118TT14.3560.3550339.0720726725111.0900895998590.80633612423383164511125WETL
2022-11-08 07:00:13FORECAST20234312346.3530.938.62532.3933277528190.00180.001815.9115.9118TT14.3558.3550338.8656600679410.9769863907560.80633612423383164511125WETL
2022-11-08 03:00:13FORECAST20234312342.8732.7837.82532.4537354775160.00180.001815.9215.9218TT10.8749.8750338.9054021136710.9987462720980.67850547308657163511124.5WETL
2022-11-07 23:00:12FORECAST20234312345.3433.1839.2626.4350797481750.00730.007315.8815.8873TT13.3452.3450334.915632972038.85352146652630.772796411594591645112210WETL
2022-11-07 19:00:01FORECAST20234312348.0230.2739.14526.9145059607340.02970.029715.8815.9097TT16.0265.0250335.235685323379.02270285088660.854738162190971655112211WETL
2022-11-07 15:00:05FORECAST20234312348.0932.4140.2526.8139237410740.02970.029715.8915.9197TT16.0964.0950335.168571576788.98718451866440.856572097423671655112211WETM
2022-11-07 11:00:05FORECAST20234312347.7231.9639.8427.5878310568680015.8815.88TT15.7263.7250335.684521929859.2608078794060.84670083730711645112210WETL
2022-11-07 07:00:10FORECAST20234312347.7231.5339.62528.0497624282040015.8915.89TT15.7258.7250335.992000422089.42449578961650.84670083730711645112210WETL
2022-11-07 03:00:36FORECAST20234312344.6130.0737.3428.8411169560940015.9615.96TT12.6152.6150336.517917374479.70555261281820.746648088388811645112210WETL
2022-11-06 23:00:04FORECAST20234312341.8827.3734.62520.68472958773300.0115.515.51TT9.8855.8850331.046323827646.84760368938780.63663528904494163511229WETL
2022-11-06 19:00:07FORECAST2023431234229.835.920.75523473839900.0115.4915.5TT105350331.094108527756.87193594299430.64181065178064163511229WETL
2022-11-06 15:00:05FORECAST20234312342.0429.8135.92520.65438998661800.0115.4715.48TT10.0452.0450331.025758600656.8371351137540.64353005641724163511229WETL
2022-11-06 11:00:06FORECAST20234312339.2927.6333.4622.293266151020.00070.000715.4915.4907TT7.2952.2950332.134379083457.40436011081110.52038826035493163511229WETL
2022-11-06 07:00:06FORECAST20234312338.7226.4532.58524.408490958490.02850.028515.8515.8785TT6.7241.7250333.558421449618.14165771408090.49420274905685162511228WETL
2022-11-06 03:00:14FORECAST20234312338.8926.4532.6725.869437646490.02850.028516.1216.1485TT6.8950.8950334.537523639998.65429760821580.50201496054483163511229WETL
2022-11-06 00:00:13FORECAST20234312339.527.9233.7130.0066371045750.00190.001915.615.6019TT7.540.550337.2905741681310.1209558578570.53001939968755163511124.5WETL
2022-11-05 20:00:10FORECAST20234312339.528.3633.9328.5255990082820016.2716.27TT7.539.550336.308357738219.59339735597430.53001939968755163511229WETL
2022-11-05 16:00:06FORECAST20234312339.3928.7834.08528.2355241901610016.1916.19TT7.3936.3950336.115548600969.49039870321170.52497634864101163511229WETL
2022-11-05 12:00:05FORECAST20234312333.1629.6231.3930.3024803420520.01620.856216.1617.0162TT1.1628.1650337.4863334301610.2266729844790.256224928785271625131212WETL
2022-11-05 08:00:04FORECAST20234312333.1331.1832.15532.7629189779120.01490.854916.6117.4649TT1.1322.1350339.1087174839411.110191435630.255113539282611625131212WETL
2022-11-05 04:00:12FORECAST20234312332.9730.7931.8832.9284287576650.0150.86516.6317.495TT0.9735.9750339.2174891387711.169898924460.249228919519561625131212WETL