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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, November 11, 2022

[ Thursday, November 10, 2022 | Index | Today | Saturday, November 12, 2022 ]

DAY 42 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/12/2022 07:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.33°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.43°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.183
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 4

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 16.72 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.72 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 29 in
SWE DAY: 51
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 337.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 9.76 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 122

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-12 07:00:08OBSERVATION20234212230.3299624.4299227.3799428.9172650016.7216.72TT-1.670044.3299651337.55964336654 9.76130166053580.1830274409545116 1511227WETL
2022-11-12 03:00:20OBSERVATION20234212230.3299624.4299227.3799428.9172650016.7216.72TT-1.670044.3299651337.55964336654 9.76130166053580.1830274409545116 1511227WETL
2022-11-11 11:00:01FORECAST20234212241.2125.4833.34529.8326637178950.00840.008416.7216.7284TT9.2115.2151338.1642608730610.0883406760370.61119175565489163511124.5WETL
2022-11-11 07:00:08FORECAST20234212241.8925.4933.6929.6024166189820.00970.009716.7216.7297TT9.8915.8951338.012315809510.005981394940.63929137501441163511124.5WETL
2022-11-11 03:00:05FORECAST20234212235.2926.4830.88529.7746221729140.01840.018416.7216.7384TT3.299.2951338.1259663728310.0675728956020.35829788544937162511124WETL
2022-11-10 23:00:01FORECAST20234212242.0226.5934.30530.7730148454680.00890.008916.7216.7289TT10.0229.0251338.7838972799310.4254019004010.64458402839885163511124.5WETL
2022-11-10 19:00:02FORECAST20234212235.4628.8532.15530.9196944653170.00710.007116.7216.7271TT3.4622.4651338.8804172094510.4780789603950.36524363924224162511124WETL
2022-11-10 15:00:02FORECAST20234212237.4325.9431.68530.8930294794090.00730.007316.7216.7273TT5.4324.4351338.8628734613910.468500739320.44840418579232162511124WETL
2022-11-10 11:00:03FORECAST20234212241.7726.9334.3530.5733471032810.00540.005416.7216.7254TT9.7728.7751338.6524516479510.353738951610.63438203804729163511124.5WETL
2022-11-10 07:00:08FORECAST20234212237.3427.2732.30530.600530804640.02120.021216.7216.7412TT5.3426.3451338.6703511921410.3634925142730.44452492335701162511124WETL
2022-11-10 03:00:16FORECAST20234212236.926.8531.87530.7710746204830.02660.026616.7216.7466TT4.925.951338.782620308210.4247052896260.4256428144119162511124WETL
2022-11-09 23:00:02FORECAST20234212240.3127.1133.7132.528699614160.03160.031616.7216.7516TT8.3135.3151339.9368371714811.0577032641390.57311185097918163511124.5WETL
2022-11-09 19:00:02FORECAST20234212240.2427.4133.82532.5626735426380.03160.031616.7216.7516TT8.2435.2451339.9590968270311.0699770878280.5701163728216163511124.5WETL
2022-11-09 15:00:03FORECAST20234212236.9926.5931.7932.5708797223130.04520.045216.7216.7652TT4.9931.9951339.9644732128611.0729419668760.42949267984947162511124WETL
2022-11-09 11:00:06FORECAST20234212237.326.6431.9732.3240930724640.04220.042216.7216.7622TT5.332.351339.8027387143710.9838153524820.44280248821195162511124WETL
2022-11-09 07:00:25FORECAST20234212237.427.1232.2632.4650426233760.03850.038516.7216.7585TT5.431.451339.8951240562611.0347096899640.44711053133571162511124WETL
2022-11-09 03:00:19FORECAST20234212237.2527.3532.332.2507248720570.03980.039816.7216.7598TT5.2533.2551339.7546364582210.957333304420.44065096714742162511124WETL
2022-11-08 23:00:06FORECAST20234212242.9229.7236.3233.1310383681080.08360.083616.7216.8036TT10.9246.9251340.3312036894811.27552616730.6804172099868163511124.5WETL
2022-11-08 19:00:05FORECAST20234212244.3632.5938.47532.9402866666670016.7216.72TT12.3647.3651340.2063789697711.2064956490930.7343022208587164511125WETL
2022-11-08 15:00:04FORECAST20234212243.3630.236.7833.204624320150.00040.000416.7216.7204TT11.3646.3651340.3793409412511.3021681422940.69736608706056163511124.5WETL
2022-11-08 11:00:06FORECAST20234212242.2429.8936.06533.2936389449860.00040.000416.7216.7204TT10.2446.2451340.4375590458511.3344051741850.65347719120071163511124.5WETL
2022-11-08 07:00:13FORECAST20234212244.127.93632.9797917528190016.7216.72TT12.144.151340.2322354025911.2207882711730.72492210685352164511125WETL
2022-11-08 03:00:13FORECAST2023421224331.5437.2732.9286248108490016.7316.73TT113951340.1987456846511.2022768577710.68352837002933163511124.5WETL
2022-11-07 23:00:10FORECAST20234212243.6429.8836.7627.2536584148420016.6916.69TT11.6438.6451336.457231867049.16969046850760.70793760927691645112210WETL
2022-11-07 19:00:01FORECAST2023421224428.236.127.4013277831870016.6916.69TT124951336.555275483399.22206142068110.721271486810541645112210WETL
2022-11-07 15:00:04FORECAST2023421224430.1937.09527.4423170744070016.716.7TT124851336.582483397989.23660323109850.721271486810541645112210WETL
2022-11-07 11:00:04FORECAST20234212243.6829.2736.47528.5156337235340016.6916.69TT11.6847.6851337.293923345759.61814997530130.709433699759191645112210WETL
2022-11-07 07:00:09FORECAST20234212238.1728.3133.2428.8682864282040016.716.7TT6.1743.1751337.527253560779.74383343311750.48045385224905162511228WETL
2022-11-07 03:00:34FORECAST20234212241.0828.3134.69529.3696342894270016.7716.77TT9.0840.0851337.85860733089.92278373884070.60574770276345163511229WETL
2022-11-06 23:00:04FORECAST20234212240.221.9431.0720.89497758773300.0316.2916.32TT8.246.251332.200372996166.94131934839140.56840284579397163511229WETL
2022-11-06 19:00:07FORECAST20234212240.0226.3933.20520.98663873839900.0316.2816.31TT8.0243.0251332.262225802826.973067299340.56067649326059163511229WETL
2022-11-06 15:00:05FORECAST20234212239.9826.3933.18520.88639531995200.0516.2416.29TT7.9841.9851332.194580957456.93834734102290.55895627519731163511229WETL
2022-11-06 11:00:06FORECAST20234212239.6527.3333.4922.4267223609800.0316.2716.3TT7.6544.6551333.232104049827.47330387929070.54472497103333163511229WETL
2022-11-06 07:00:06FORECAST20234212239.4428.1333.78524.42048673399400.0316.6316.66TT7.4435.4451334.569036941498.17033872823470.53563752828664163511229WETL
2022-11-06 03:00:14FORECAST20234212239.4427.2433.3425.88254498963700.0316.916.93TT7.4444.4451335.545136613798.68476209446030.53563752828664163511229WETL
2022-11-06 00:00:12FORECAST20234212238.4328.2233.32530.14825617141100.0116.416.41TT6.4333.4351338.3723828696310.2013372800840.49175539078315162511124WETL
2022-11-05 20:00:09FORECAST20234212238.4628.2433.3528.66029767494900.0117.0717.08TT6.4632.4651337.389664529029.66968821785290.49306001292319162511228WETL
2022-11-05 16:00:06FORECAST20234212238.0227.0732.54528.34671619016100.0116.9917TT6.0229.0251337.182086179029.55800490132310.47394029073991162511228WETL
2022-11-05 12:00:05FORECAST20234212239.9830.4135.19530.307525659680.81170.861716.9517.8117TT7.9826.9851338.4773521059910.2584110341730.558956275197311635131213.5WETL
2022-11-05 08:00:04FORECAST20234212239.9731.435.68532.7781709779120.81170.861717.418.2617TT7.9720.9751340.1002456254911.1478640007420.55852604552751635131213.5WETL
2022-11-05 04:00:12FORECAST20234212240.7329.535.11532.9337314243320.81660.866617.4218.2866TT8.7334.7351340.2020882539511.2041242045520.590990461108921635131213.5WETL
2022-11-05 00:00:06FORECAST20234212242.6630.3336.49527.868969183310.00450.03459.529.5545TT10.6642.6651336.865518848699.38809476371390.67021892428434163511229WETL
2022-11-04 20:00:04FORECAST20234212242.4427.6735.05527.8573508571660.00450.034513.2813.3145TT10.4446.4451336.857815464349.38396635436860.66148931931486163511229WETL
2022-11-04 16:00:06FORECAST20234212242.4530.9536.727.3187403367970.00450.034513.4813.5145TT10.4549.4551336.500446897549.19276833200980.66188805134426163511229WETL
2022-11-04 12:00:04FORECAST20234212235.8731.0833.47526.4260343463260.06310.153113.3913.5431TT3.8743.8751335.907057919698.87669144975910.382173984088521625122216WETL
2022-11-04 08:00:04FORECAST20234212239.4936.5438.01525.8148286946260.09130.191314.4514.6413TT7.4935.4951335.500007856558.66087522986250.53780307179841635122218WETL
2022-11-04 04:00:18FORECAST20234212239.4936.6438.06526.4091485001470.08190.181915.2715.4519TT7.4931.4951335.895820788518.87072261178250.53780307179841635122218WETL