Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 7, 2022
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Tuesday, November 8, 2022 ]
DAY 38
OF WATER YEAR 2023,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/08/2022 07:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.54°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.08°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 22.31°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.048
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -12
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.24 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.79 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 16.14 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 17.93 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 34 in
SWE DAY: 55
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 344.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 11.73 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
|
| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 118
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
|
| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
|
| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2022-11-08 07:00:09 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 24.54008 | 20.08004 | 22.31006 | 34.01568 | 0.24000000000001 | 1.79 | 16.14 | 17.93 | T | T | -7.45992 | -12.45992 | 55 | 344.7860291874 | 11.728131237309 | 0.048002502264268 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-08 03:00:10 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 24.54008 | 20.08004 | 22.31006 | 34.01568 | 0.24000000000001 | 1.79 | 16.14 | 17.93 | T | T | -7.45992 | -12.45992 | 55 | 344.7860291874 | 11.728131237309 | 0.048002502264268 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-07 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 22.7 | 20.09 | 21.395 | 29.096436730043 | 0.2017 | 1.7517 | 16.14 | 17.8917 | T | T | -9.3 | -14.3 | 55 | 341.60356014917 | 9.9394463746379 | 0.03113692810983 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-07 07:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 23.04 | 19.15 | 21.095 | 29.152010441633 | 0.1971 | 1.7471 | 16.14 | 17.8871 | T | T | -8.96 | -13.96 | 55 | 341.63973569074 | 9.9594851421332 | 0.033819363546574 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-07 03:00:26 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 28.33 | 19.22 | 23.775 | 29.51246209609 | 0.2672 | 1.8172 | 16.14 | 17.9572 | T | T | -3.67 | -8.67 | 55 | 341.87424668947 | 10.089550747053 | 0.10498099324144 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 23:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 29.88 | 19.05 | 24.465 | 20.936860338184 | 0.3734 | 1.3334 | 16.14 | 17.4734 | T | T | -2.12 | -1.12 | 55 | 336.23630646734 | 7.0397325891337 | 0.13877326402851 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 19:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 27.12 | 16.96 | 22.04 | 21.122636832609 | 0.3794 | 1.3394 | 16.14 | 17.4794 | T | T | -4.88 | -3.88 | 55 | 336.35974918826 | 7.1048048272109 | 0.08306325162715 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 15:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 27.24 | 19.02 | 23.13 | 20.899658592111 | 0.349 | 1.309 | 16.14 | 17.449 | T | T | -4.76 | -3.76 | 55 | 336.21158005957 | 7.0267072379592 | 0.085070011977064 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 11:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 29.84 | 19.14 | 24.49 | 22.204276769147 | 0.3157 | 1.2757 | 16.14 | 17.4157 | T | T | -2.16 | -1.16 | 55 | 337.0773096824 | 7.4845578767874 | 0.13781758059258 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 30.89 | 19.72 | 25.305 | 24.330525693787 | 0.3756 | 1.6856 | 16.14 | 17.8256 | T | T | -1.11 | 0.89 | 55 | 338.48213064963 | 8.2354481766587 | 0.16439824982667 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 03:00:12 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 27.64 | 19.38 | 23.51 | 25.641284950057 | 0.3392 | 1.9092 | 16.14 | 18.0492 | T | T | -4.36 | -1.36 | 55 | 339.34438180317 | 8.701225990016 | 0.092020799570544 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 31.96 | 19.29 | 25.625 | 29.990044226385 | 0.2266 | 1.4066 | 16.14 | 17.5466 | T | T | -0.039999999999999 | -11.04 | 55 | 342.18463263792 | 10.2621322664 | 0.19468147672019 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 29.64 | 19.3 | 24.47 | 28.409643233725 | 0.2537 | 2.0737 | 16.14 | 18.2137 | T | T | -2.36 | -11.36 | 55 | 341.1560722221 | 9.6921222988488 | 0.13310640488501 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 30.92 | 18.33 | 24.625 | 28.353320517956 | 0.2424 | 2.0324 | 16.14 | 18.1724 | T | T | -1.08 | -14.08 | 55 | 341.11933988592 | 9.6718659786592 | 0.16520344164272 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 30.8 | 18.12 | 24.46 | 30.844743120237 | 0.2349 | 2.0049 | 16.14 | 18.1449 | T | T | -1.2 | -8.2 | 55 | 342.73917197537 | 10.571701716823 | 0.16199792790522 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 27.71 | 17.82 | 22.765 | 33.150829898792 | 0.2081 | 2.4281 | 16.14 | 18.5681 | T | T | -4.29 | -14.29 | 55 | 344.22939769576 | 11.411490209176 | 0.09327909841171 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 04:00:10 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 27.67 | 17.92 | 22.795 | 33.134055727442 | 0.2267 | 2.4467 | 16.14 | 18.5867 | T | T | -4.33 | -13.33 | 55 | 344.21858947557 | 11.405357926105 | 0.092558528026371 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 28.06 | 17.4 | 22.73 | 27.888849682195 | 0.3464 | 2.5564 | 8.11 | 10.6664 | T | T | -3.94 | -5.94 | 55 | 340.81622261424 | 9.5049724017419 | 0.099761006929981 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 27.15 | 16.62 | 21.885 | 27.831811657775 | 0.2526 | 2.4726 | 11.97 | 14.4426 | T | T | -4.85 | 0.15 | 55 | 340.77897449715 | 9.4844962351345 | 0.083561583645661 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 30.34 | 18.43 | 24.385 | 27.253634477417 | 0.1933 | 2.6733 | 11.97 | 14.6433 | T | T | -1.66 | 1.34 | 55 | 340.40109686096 | 9.2771670695605 | 0.15008706433316 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 30.04 | 16.72 | 23.38 | 26.86984177124 | 0.168 | 2.618 | 11.97 | 14.588 | T | T | -1.96 | 0.039999999999999 | 55 | 340.14995592033 | 9.1397754940736 | 0.14264093376139 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 31.67 | 16.44 | 24.055 | 26.510448761147 | 0.154 | 2.544 | 13.11 | 15.654 | T | T | -0.33 | -4.33 | 55 | 339.91455924173 | 9.0112875059458 | 0.18615715220597 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 04:00:17 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 24.72 | 16.45 | 20.585 | 27.036064925543 | 0.1809 | 2.5809 | 13.89 | 16.4709 | T | T | -7.28 | -9.28 | 55 | 340.25875677487 | 9.1992578396499 | 0.049983566319179 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 27.23 | 15.48 | 21.355 | 143.16222961823 | 0.1717 | 2.2717 | 13.61 | 15.8817 | T | T | -4.77 | -0.77 | 55 | 406.07037106896 | 58.133939704135 | 0.084901411300001 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 27.53 | 14.94 | 21.235 | 142.95200031557 | 0.18 | 2.34 | 14.14 | 16.48 | T | T | -4.47 | 6.53 | 55 | 405.96791006404 | 58.033924807585 | 0.090068850714323 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 28.35 | 14.91 | 21.63 | 143.55909380131 | 0.118 | 2.398 | 14.04 | 16.438 | T | T | -3.65 | 5.35 | 55 | 406.26364462414 | 58.32284066666 | 0.105375355512 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 30.81 | 15.68 | 23.245 | 144.41308728443 | 0.1225 | 2.1925 | 14.14 | 16.3325 | T | T | -1.19 | -0.19 | 55 | 406.67888085234 | 58.729752717266 | 0.16226350026369 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 08:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 30.65 | 18.5 | 24.575 | 141.60014016534 | 0.1088 | 1.8888 | 13.84 | 15.7288 | T | T | -1.35 | 7.65 | 55 | 405.30773530989 | 57.391632129977 | 0.15804825272517 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 04:00:15 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 30.65 | 18.5 | 24.575 | 142.42130540157 | 0.1088 | 2.0388 | 13.69 | 15.7288 | T | T | -1.35 | -0.35 | 55 | 405.70901785915 | 57.78160793669 | 0.15804825272517 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 00:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 27.56 | 17.96 | 22.76 | 21.815764745113 | 0.3895 | 2.1795 | 13.38 | 15.5595 | T | T | -4.44 | -5.44 | 55 | 336.81979745574 | 7.3479814627911 | 0.090598133830291 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 28.3 | 17.33 | 22.815 | 24.326519420977 | 0.3764 | 2.4164 | 13.32 | 15.7364 | T | T | -3.7 | 2.3 | 55 | 338.47949081736 | 8.234027906971 | 0.10439144830942 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 16:00:09 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 28.12 | 17.19 | 22.655 | 23.967005192574 | 0.3764 | 2.3264 | 13.08 | 15.4064 | T | T | -3.88 | 11.12 | 55 | 338.24248859758 | 8.1066594805675 | 0.10090434874276 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 30.18 | 21.33 | 25.755 | 20.341033988734 | 0.2219 | 1.7619 | 12.96 | 14.7219 | T | T | -1.82 | 11.18 | 55 | 335.84000510877 | 6.8313329586942 | 0.14608422495567 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 26.81 | 21.56 | 24.185 | 21.513448599045 | 0.2493 | 2.0193 | 13.02 | 15.0393 | T | T | -5.19 | 8.81 | 55 | 336.61924141176 | 7.2418407475616 | 0.078043573859179 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 26.76 | 21.42 | 24.09 | 21.443262154101 | 0.2493 | 1.9793 | 12.81 | 14.7893 | T | T | -5.24 | 4.76 | 55 | 336.57265780593 | 7.2172157352349 | 0.077255896193236 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 28.46 | 20.68 | 24.57 | 28.859172489738 | 0.6152 | 2.5052 | 11.94 | 14.4452 | T | T | -3.54 | 4.46 | 55 | 341.44905624843 | 9.8539372107316 | 0.10756344908716 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 30.77 | 21.01 | 25.89 | 25.883081640868 | 0.5416 | 2.4616 | 12.23 | 14.6916 | T | T | -1.23 | 26.77 | 55 | 339.50312849785 | 8.7873871922399 | 0.16120290619049 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 32.02 | 20.76 | 26.39 | 27.981007918929 | 0.5416 | 2.3616 | 11.8 | 14.1616 | T | T | 0.020000000000003 | 20.02 | 55 | 340.87639423597 | 9.5380650864924 | 0.1964742694524 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 29.11 | 19.62 | 24.365 | 22.678729362314 | 0.398 | 1.768 | 11.64 | 13.408 | T | T | -2.89 | 21.11 | 55 | 337.391440288 | 7.6516091634528 | 0.12116059481565 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 08:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 29.11 | 18.6 | 23.855 | 25.339169059574 | 0.5183 | 1.7683 | 11.39 | 13.1583 | T | T | -2.89 | 20.11 | 55 | 339.14589670421 | 8.5936752124487 | 0.12116059481565 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 04:00:33 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 29.69 | 18.81 | 24.25 | 26.988518995215 | 0.5183 | 1.7683 | 11.39 | 13.1583 | T | T | -2.31 | 16.69 | 55 | 340.22764042279 | 9.1822401362479 | 0.13427370561588 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 32.4 | 20.89 | 26.645 | 32.65876127333 | 0.3548 | 1.8648 | 8.09 | 9.9548 | T | T | 0.4 | 7.4 | 55 | 343.91214818395 | 11.231744746538 | 0.20805871525952 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 20:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 30.16 | 22.64 | 26.4 | 28.633507311113 | 0.3505 | 1.9005 | 8.13 | 10.0305 | T | T | -1.84 | 15.16 | 55 | 341.30201911038 | 9.7726738594947 | 0.14558894596066 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 31.23 | 22.5 | 26.865 | 29.15539338875 | 0.291 | 1.841 | 8.23 | 10.071 | T | T | -0.77 | 10.23 | 55 | 341.64193764519 | 9.9607050901403 | 0.17367247073395 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 12:00:13 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 28.88 | 25.02 | 26.95 | 26.335671957168 | 0.1863 | 1.8763 | 7.47 | 9.3463 | T | T | -3.12 | 2.88 | 55 | 339.80000554467 | 8.9488614770682 | 0.11621780905502 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 08:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 28.03 | 24.64 | 26.335 | 27.331165146289 | 0.0758 | 1.6158 | 8.59 | 10.2058 | T | T | -3.97 | 26.03 | 55 | 340.45180058628 | 9.3049443861751 | 0.099192886327836 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 04:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 38 | 118 | 28.4 | 25.09 | 26.745 | 27.354561323274 | 0.0156 | 1.5556 | 9.14 | 10.6956 | T | T | -3.6 | 21.4 | 55 | 340.46709932294 | 9.3133281469865 | 0.10636593182418 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |