Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 6, 2022
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Monday, November 7, 2022 ]
DAY 37
OF WATER YEAR 2023,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/07/2022 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
| Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.72°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 23.81°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.061
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
|
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
|
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 19
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
|
| Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.94 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 9.68 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.02 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 17.70 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
| Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 28 in
SWE DAY: 57
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 341.90 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 9.59 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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| Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 117
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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| Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 2
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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| Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
| D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
| 2022-11-07 07:00:06 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 25.89008 | 21.72002 | 23.80505 | 28.0491565 | 0.93999999999994 | 9.6799999999999 | 8.02 | 17.7 | T | T | -6.10992 | 18.89008 | 56 | 341.89554811525 | 9.589881735738 | 0.060932525358493 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-07 03:00:24 | OBSERVATION | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 25.89008 | 21.72002 | 23.80505 | 28.0491565 | 0.93999999999994 | 9.6799999999999 | 8.02 | 17.7 | T | T | -6.10992 | 18.89008 | 56 | 341.89554811525 | 9.589881735738 | 0.060932525358493 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 11:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 32.36 | 21.81 | 27.085 | 20.567414160417 | 0.3481 | 9.0881 | 8.02 | 17.1081 | T | T | 0.36 | 25.36 | 56 | 336.98401471442 | 6.9308897960716 | 0.20395112459346 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 07:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 33.3 | 21.5 | 27.4 | 22.452219733176 | 0.7046 | 9.4446 | 8.02 | 17.4646 | T | T | 1.3 | 26.3 | 56 | 338.23014027365 | 7.594017429807 | 0.23478113754484 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 03:00:11 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 34 | 21.37 | 27.685 | 23.769865093479 | 0.9563 | 9.6963 | 8.02 | 17.7163 | T | T | 2 | 27 | 56 | 339.097755664 | 8.0603079056348 | 0.25931586444045 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-06 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 33.78 | 20.83 | 27.305 | 28.87124081506 | 1.1725 | 9.3125 | 8.02 | 17.3325 | T | T | 1.78 | 12.78 | 57 | 343.3984973379 | 9.9143407121723 | 0.25146508267792 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 30.93 | 20.33 | 25.63 | 27.152343970324 | 1.3357 | 9.9457 | 8.02 | 17.9657 | T | T | -1.07 | 14.93 | 57 | 342.28491510997 | 9.2938377509191 | 0.16195652171175 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 27.37 | 20.97 | 24.17 | 27.131765406364 | 1.313 | 9.923 | 8.02 | 17.943 | T | T | -4.63 | 11.37 | 57 | 342.27155387469 | 9.2864315049998 | 0.083446676162796 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 33.42 | 20.7 | 27.06 | 29.605618857605 | 1.2924 | 9.9024 | 8.02 | 17.9224 | T | T | 1.42 | 17.42 | 57 | 343.8727816553 | 10.180566509191 | 0.23889395749523 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 32.92 | 20.82 | 26.87 | 31.944186872909 | 1.4848 | 10.3548 | 8.02 | 18.3748 | T | T | 0.92 | 13.92 | 57 | 345.37722129086 | 11.032794498561 | 0.22201860169011 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 04:00:10 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 32.79 | 20.57 | 26.68 | 31.771591070662 | 1.4418 | 10.3518 | 8.02 | 18.3718 | T | T | 0.79 | 14.79 | 57 | 345.26649271749 | 10.969665817022 | 0.21774496404204 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-05 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 32.7 | 20.6 | 26.65 | 25.94117310483 | 1.2313 | 2.3113 | 8.02 | 10.3313 | T | T | 0.7 | 21.7 | 57 | 341.49733668748 | 8.8588415258484 | 0.21481424864908 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 33.53 | 21.03 | 27.28 | 26.431685579282 | 1.2737 | 6.1837 | 8.02 | 14.2037 | T | T | 1.53 | 28.53 | 57 | 341.81659027718 | 9.0347886399888 | 0.24269833643318 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 31.7 | 19.45 | 25.575 | 26.116438137731 | 1.3993 | 6.4393 | 8.02 | 14.4593 | T | T | -0.3 | 26.7 | 57 | 341.61145487432 | 8.9216744283656 | 0.18381988466221 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 31.49 | 19.78 | 25.635 | 25.998447982174 | 1.4079 | 6.4079 | 8.02 | 14.4279 | T | T | -0.51 | 26.49 | 57 | 341.53463496935 | 8.8793704413613 | 0.17768273347985 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 31.5 | 20.9 | 26.2 | 25.669046746805 | 1.3858 | 7.4858 | 8.02 | 15.5058 | T | T | -0.5 | 20.5 | 57 | 341.32004965975 | 8.7613603103379 | 0.17797202119933 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 04:00:16 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 31.44 | 21.1 | 26.27 | 25.795176608283 | 1.3951 | 8.2751 | 8.02 | 16.2951 | T | T | -0.56 | 22.44 | 57 | 341.40223697361 | 8.8065309971972 | 0.17624073846698 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-04 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 33.34 | 20.77 | 27.055 | 142.14268537785 | 1.0555 | 8.3855 | 7.33 | 15.7155 | T | T | 1.34 | 28.34 | 57 | 407.02910231498 | 57.856209629986 | 0.23614771886523 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 33.74 | 21 | 27.37 | 141.95929850797 | 1.0771 | 8.4371 | 7.87 | 16.3071 | T | T | 1.74 | 34.74 | 57 | 406.94017343507 | 57.768941555553 | 0.25005126450373 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 33.07 | 20.57 | 26.82 | 142.88373531026 | 1.1582 | 8.4582 | 7.87 | 16.3282 | T | T | 1.07 | 33.07 | 57 | 407.38803436526 | 58.209124070811 | 0.22700859928971 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 25.74 | 20.67 | 23.205 | 143.69447865699 | 1.0031 | 8.3531 | 7.87 | 16.2231 | T | T | -6.26 | 24.74 | 57 | 407.77994971732 | 58.595727281403 | 0.058943266960822 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 32.78 | 20.51 | 26.645 | 141.02656168716 | 0.8683 | 7.8683 | 7.76 | 15.6283 | T | T | 0.78 | 32.78 | 57 | 406.48722433012 | 57.325495617036 | 0.21741819647825 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 04:00:15 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 32.49 | 20.87 | 26.68 | 141.84077808999 | 0.9619 | 7.8519 | 7.78 | 15.6319 | T | T | 0.49 | 25.49 | 57 | 406.88267787953 | 57.712555621771 | 0.20806555299814 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-03 00:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 33.89 | 22.04 | 27.965 | 18.776397482103 | 0.9095 | 7.6695 | 7.51 | 15.1795 | T | T | 1.89 | 22.89 | 57 | 336.78846781904 | 6.3236741391588 | 0.25537472867832 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 20:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 27.71 | 21.17 | 24.44 | 21.348491361742 | 0.961 | 7.861 | 7.51 | 15.371 | T | T | -4.29 | 29.71 | 57 | 338.48878016989 | 7.2262247995035 | 0.089405225843932 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 16:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 29.51 | 21.16 | 25.335 | 20.913456514181 | 0.9008 | 7.6008 | 7.44 | 15.0408 | T | T | -2.49 | 38.51 | 57 | 338.20197532304 | 7.0729723039284 | 0.12625812274635 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 12:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 28.47 | 19.43 | 23.95 | 18.864525301178 | 0.5519 | 7.1119 | 7.4 | 14.5119 | T | T | -3.53 | 37.47 | 57 | 336.84690970011 | 6.3544570506612 | 0.10385421242535 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 34.94 | 19.8 | 27.37 | 19.748739751328 | 0.5578 | 7.3878 | 7.41 | 14.7978 | T | T | 2.94 | 37.94 | 57 | 337.43255216869 | 6.6638676564059 | 0.29422740525064 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 29.69 | 20.95 | 25.32 | 19.552221895313 | 0.5997 | 7.0197 | 7.53 | 14.5497 | T | T | -2.31 | 33.69 | 57 | 337.30250599357 | 6.5950134430315 | 0.13045337243556 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-02 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 33.17 | 19.73 | 26.45 | 24.093895612135 | 0.784 | 6.504 | 7.34 | 13.844 | T | T | 1.17 | 32.17 | 57 | 340.29144678372 | 8.1989465965094 | 0.23037003496504 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 20:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 33.1 | 20.69 | 26.895 | 21.707634514435 | 0.7665 | 6.7265 | 7.43 | 14.1565 | T | T | 1.1 | 52.1 | 57 | 338.7253133068 | 7.3529253020513 | 0.22801412062436 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 34.19 | 20.74 | 27.465 | 23.469113838017 | 0.7665 | 6.1965 | 7.43 | 13.6265 | T | T | 2.19 | 44.19 | 57 | 339.88231144438 | 7.9767366588165 | 0.26619645755661 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 40 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 32.7 | 20.67 | 26.685 | 19.013330405323 | 0.4402 | 5.5402 | 7.48 | 13.0202 | T | T | 0.7 | 47.7 | 57 | 336.94555997777 | 6.4064572604641 | 0.21481424864908 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 08:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 32.04 | 19.64 | 25.84 | 20.359867774524 | 0.5262 | 5.2562 | 7.39 | 12.6462 | T | T | 0.039999999999999 | 47.04 | 57 | 337.8365530788 | 6.8783075500853 | 0.19403162415186 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 04:00:32 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 32.04 | 19.87 | 25.955 | 21.605356749903 | 0.5262 | 5.2162 | 7.43 | 12.6462 | T | T | 0.039999999999999 | 43.04 | 57 | 338.65797472913 | 7.3168263602226 | 0.19403162415186 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-11-01 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 32.64 | 21.12 | 26.88 | 29.233806131885 | 0.5692 | 4.7292 | 4.88 | 9.6092 | T | T | 0.64 | 30.64 | 57 | 343.63276393301 | 10.045693601381 | 0.21287321122229 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 20:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 33.3 | 21.25 | 27.275 | 25.205842611937 | 0.4028 | 4.5628 | 5.13 | 9.6928 | T | T | 1.3 | 41.3 | 57 | 341.01799581505 | 8.5956459303521 | 0.23478113754484 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 33.29 | 21.25 | 27.27 | 26.233691232194 | 0.4028 | 4.5528 | 5.24 | 9.7928 | T | T | 1.29 | 35.29 | 57 | 341.68777209673 | 8.9637315110017 | 0.2344401754558 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 12:00:12 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 27.55 | 19.6 | 23.575 | 24.573123568773 | 0.4513 | 4.0213 | 5.15 | 9.1713 | T | T | -4.45 | 29.55 | 57 | 340.60482719584 | 8.3697245068039 | 0.086563046282604 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 08:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 31.27 | 21.29 | 26.28 | 26.567042563406 | 0.4476 | 4.4676 | 5.67 | 10.1376 | T | T | -0.73 | 54.27 | 57 | 341.90461834617 | 9.0833945482279 | 0.17139341976313 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 04:00:06 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 29.89 | 19.74 | 24.815 | 27.202661306474 | 0.4476 | 4.4676 | 6.22 | 10.6876 | T | T | -2.11 | 48.89 | 57 | 342.31758217259 | 9.3119492470922 | 0.13522637068408 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 35 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-31 00:00:08 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 33.96 | 20.61 | 27.285 | 29.863822170561 | 0.5397 | 5.7497 | 5.68 | 11.4297 | T | T | 1.96 | 56.96 | 57 | 344.03932733614 | 10.274329291246 | 0.25787910174522 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 20 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-30 20:00:07 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 28.51 | 20.75 | 24.63 | 29.973619400794 | 0.4908 | 5.9108 | 6.78 | 12.6908 | T | T | -3.49 | 52.51 | 57 | 344.11011538958 | 10.314225630651 | 0.10465893002872 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-30 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 30.45 | 20.63 | 25.54 | 33.24560775556 | 0.5166 | 6.0766 | 6.73 | 12.8066 | T | T | -1.55 | 39.45 | 57 | 346.21058472575 | 11.509981300615 | 0.14921996511583 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-30 12:00:05 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 29.17 | 25.46 | 27.315 | 42.680419073305 | 0.1406 | 12.6106 | 6.78 | 19.3906 | T | T | -2.83 | 43.17 | 57 | 352.17047785314 | 15.030783580018 | 0.11859164243709 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-30 08:00:04 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 26.89 | 24.85 | 25.87 | 37.299037196444 | 0.0108 | 12.9208 | 7.09 | 20.0108 | T | T | -5.11 | 43.89 | 57 | 348.78861206693 | 13.009479415181 | 0.075547896162233 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |
| 2022-10-30 04:00:10 | FORECAST | 2023 | 37 | 117 | 26.91 | 25.13 | 26.02 | 37.548801907524 | 0.0068 | 12.9168 | 7.07 | 19.9868 | T | T | -5.09 | 45.91 | 57 | 348.94659880199 | 13.10252671472 | 0.075865252766139 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17.5 | WET | L |