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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, October 9, 2022

[ Saturday, October 8, 2022 | Index | Today | Monday, October 10, 2022 ]

DAY 9 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/10/2022 04:00:12 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.67°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.86°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 60.76°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.940
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 36
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 604

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 85
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 351.68 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 89

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 35.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-10-10 04:00:12OBSERVATION202398967.6700653.8599260.764990000.350.35FF35.67006603.6700685351.67649212947 00.9395325705118516 54515235DRYL
2022-10-10 00:00:02FORECAST202398962.4562.4562.4500.00010.00010.350.3501FF30.45598.4584350.739062811900.862737830142251654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-09 12:00:02FORECAST202398967.8756.1762.0200.00120.00120.350.3512FF35.87603.8784350.739062811900.941609568475721654515235DRYL
2022-10-09 08:00:02FORECAST202398968.4254.7161.5650000.350.35FF36.42604.4284350.739062811900.947035526488291654515170DRYH
2022-10-09 04:00:03FORECAST202398970.7553.7162.230000.350.35FF38.75606.7584350.739062811900.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-09 00:00:03FORECAST202398970.7555.0562.900.00010.00010.350.3501FF38.75591.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654415165DRYH
2022-10-08 20:00:02FORECAST202398970.7554.2562.50000.350.35FF38.75608.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-08 16:00:02FORECAST202398970.7555.3263.0350000.350.35FF38.75608.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-08 12:00:03FORECAST202398970.7555.6863.2150000.350.35FF38.75608.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-08 08:00:01FORECAST202398970.7555.6163.180000.350.35FF38.75606.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-08 04:00:09FORECAST202398970.7555.8663.3050000.350.35FF38.75602.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-08 00:00:03FORECAST202398970.7556.0763.410000.350.35FF38.75593.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654415165DRYH
2022-10-07 20:00:02FORECAST202398970.7555.7663.2550000.350.35FF38.75606.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-07 16:00:03FORECAST202398970.7555.6963.220000.350.35FF38.75606.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-07 12:00:04FORECAST202398970.7555.6663.2050000.350.35FF38.75606.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-07 08:00:04FORECAST202398970.7555.6163.180000.350.35FF38.75606.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-07 04:00:10FORECAST202398970.7555.7163.230000.350.35FF38.75606.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-07 00:00:08FORECAST202398970.7555.7863.2650000.350.35FF38.75590.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654415165DRYH
2022-10-06 20:00:07FORECAST202398970.7555.6663.2050000.350.35FF38.75603.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-06 16:00:04FORECAST202398970.7555.4663.1050000.350.35FF38.75599.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-06 12:00:04FORECAST202398970.7555.8763.310000.350.35FF38.75603.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-06 08:00:06FORECAST202398970.7555.9963.370000.350.35FF38.75599.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-06 04:00:05FORECAST202398970.7555.6963.220000.350.35FF38.75602.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-06 00:00:06FORECAST202398970.7556.1663.4550000.350.35FF38.75591.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 20:00:04FORECAST202398970.7555.863.2750000.350.35FF38.75599.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-05 16:00:03FORECAST202398970.7556.0763.410000.350.35FF38.75603.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-05 12:00:04FORECAST202398970.7553.3662.0550000.350.35FF38.75599.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-05 08:00:03FORECAST202398970.7553.3662.0550000.350.35FF38.75602.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-05 04:00:12FORECAST202398970.7553.3662.0550000.350.35FF38.75602.7585351.6764921294700.965747646705121654515170DRYH
2022-10-05 00:00:05FORECAST202398969.9553.2761.610000.350.35FF37.95588.9585351.6764921294700.96005221995041654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 20:00:02FORECAST202398970.3456.6463.490000.350.35FF38.34601.3485351.6764921294700.962917920497431654515170DRYH
2022-10-04 16:00:04FORECAST202398970.2857.3663.820000.350.35FF38.28599.2885351.6764921294700.96248827106061654515170DRYH
2022-10-04 12:00:04FORECAST202398970.1156.6263.3650000.350.35FF38.11598.1185351.6764921294700.961248883698731654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 08:00:06FORECAST202398971.456.9764.1850000.350.35FF39.4596.485351.6764921294700.969869264017011654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 04:00:14FORECAST202398971.3856.9764.1750000.350.35FF39.38599.3885351.6764921294700.969748854331391654515170DRYH
2022-10-04 00:00:04FORECAST202398968.1155.3561.730000.350.35FF36.11583.1185351.6764921294700.944028493190691654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 20:00:06FORECAST202398968.7455.3262.030000.350.35FF36.74599.7485351.6764921294700.950004120978031654515170DRYH
2022-10-03 16:00:07FORECAST202398968.6755.3261.9950000.350.35FF36.67598.6785351.6764921294700.949366307152411654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 12:00:05FORECAST202398967.154.3460.720000.350.35FF35.1591.185351.6764921294700.93329385882361654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-03 08:00:06FORECAST202398966.2754.2260.2450000.350.35FF34.27587.2785351.6764921294700.923337735100251654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-03 04:00:11FORECAST202398965.9654.1760.0650000.350.35FF33.96593.9685351.6764921294700.919343259636651654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-03 00:00:08FORECAST202398969.6757.3763.520000.350.35FF37.67583.6785351.6764921294700.957886140006231654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 20:00:18FORECAST202398971.575764.2850000.350.35FF39.57600.5785351.6764921294700.970876831535311654515170DRYH
2022-10-02 16:00:07FORECAST202398971.5356.9464.2350000.350.35FF39.53598.5385351.6764921294700.97064230387421654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 12:00:05FORECAST202398964.454.8559.6250000.350.35FF32.4583.485351.6764921294700.89683958100691654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-02 08:00:09FORECAST202398955.7454.6155.1750000.350.35FF23.74569.7485351.6764921294700.693105402752981634415227.5DRYL
2022-10-02 04:00:21FORECAST202398955.7454.9155.3250000.350.35FF23.74573.7485351.6764921294700.693105402752981634415227.5DRYL