MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 8, 2022

[ Friday, October 7, 2022 | Index | Today | Sunday, October 9, 2022 ]

DAY 8 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/06/2022 04:00:05 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.74°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 57.31°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 63.53°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.955
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 591

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 86
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 352.61 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 88

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-10-06 04:00:05FORECAST202388869.7457.3163.5250000.350.35FF37.74590.7486352.6103659753100.954505968660231654415165DRYH
2022-10-06 00:00:05FORECAST202388869.9757.4963.730000.350.35FF37.97579.9786352.6103659753100.956327709154161654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 20:00:04FORECAST202388870.8457.3864.110000.350.35FF38.84587.8486352.6103659753100.962694378404051654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 16:00:03FORECAST202388870.857.3164.0550000.350.35FF38.8591.886352.6103659753100.962419231028951654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 12:00:04FORECAST202388866.7854.5660.670000.350.35FF34.78587.7886352.6103659753100.925229660016511654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-05 08:00:03FORECAST202388871.1557.0564.10000.350.35FF39.15591.1586352.6103659753100.964771573694731654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 04:00:11FORECAST202388871.1557.0564.10000.350.35FF39.15591.1586352.6103659753100.964771573694731654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 00:00:05FORECAST202388870.4156.7363.570000.350.35FF38.41578.4186352.6103659753100.959649067488311654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 20:00:01FORECAST202388870.4256.1963.3050000.350.35FF38.42590.4286352.6103659753100.959722107359431654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 16:00:04FORECAST202388870.4356.7863.6050000.350.35FF38.43588.4386352.6103659753100.959795040146791654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 12:00:03FORECAST202388870.7957.1363.960000.350.35FF38.79586.7986352.6103659753100.962350186686921654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 08:00:06FORECAST202388867.6758.0462.8550000.350.35FF35.67583.6786352.6103659753100.935241055463051654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-04 04:00:14FORECAST202388870.1753.8161.990000.350.35FF38.17587.1786352.6103659753100.957863712918151654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 00:00:04FORECAST202388869.9656.0963.0250000.350.35FF37.96573.9686352.6103659753100.956249742040251654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 20:00:05FORECAST202388870.2456.3663.30000.350.35FF38.24590.2486352.6103659753100.958390904291831654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 16:00:07FORECAST202388870.1556.3563.250000.350.35FF38.15589.1586352.6103659753100.957712101045951654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 12:00:05FORECAST202388867.9254.3861.150000.350.35FF35.92582.9286352.6103659753100.937857780174521654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-03 08:00:05FORECAST202388869.0254.4761.7450000.350.35FF37.02580.0286352.6103659753100.948406739055441654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 04:00:11FORECAST202388869.1454.4261.780000.350.35FF37.14587.1486352.6103659753100.949466037592451654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 00:00:07FORECAST202388869.9257.3363.6250000.350.35FF37.92572.9286352.6103659753100.955936753502111654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 20:00:16FORECAST202388870.0557.3163.680000.350.35FF38.05588.0586352.6103659753100.956947430097591654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 16:00:07FORECAST202388870.0457.2663.650000.350.35FF38.04586.0486352.6103659753100.95687035444381654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 12:00:05FORECAST202388867.8355.1861.5050000.350.35FF35.83577.8386352.6103659753100.93692539538451654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-02 08:00:09FORECAST202388867.7654.9361.3450000.350.35FF35.76572.7686352.6103659753100.93619272875571654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-02 04:00:20FORECAST202388867.7554.9161.330000.350.35FF35.75576.7586352.6103659753100.936087525717971654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-02 00:00:03FORECAST202388860.1546.3253.23500.01990.01990.350.3699FF28.15559.1586352.6103659753100.81173134853311644415230DRYL
2022-10-01 20:00:04FORECAST202388860.6747.6854.17500.02010.02010.350.3701FF28.67575.6786352.6103659753100.823279381570071644415230DRYL
2022-10-01 16:00:07FORECAST202388860.7747.7654.26500.01840.01840.350.3684FF28.77571.7786352.6103659753100.825447833752521644415230DRYL
2022-10-01 12:00:04FORECAST202388863.5256.9160.2150000.350.35FF31.52581.5286352.6103659753100.878436626179071654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-01 08:00:07FORECAST202388858.3155.6756.990000.350.35FF26.31564.3186352.6103659753100.767274622750951644415230DRYL
2022-10-01 04:00:19FORECAST202388858.3156.7557.530000.350.35FF26.31578.3186352.6103659753100.767274622750951644415230DRYL