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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 7, 2022

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DAY 7 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/06/2022 04:00:05 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 70.24°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 58.07°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 64.16°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.937
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 583

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 87
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 353.54 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 87

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-10-06 04:00:05FORECAST202378770.2458.0764.1550000.350.35FF38.24583.2487353.5406978345700.937424518864651654415165DRYH
2022-10-06 00:00:05FORECAST202378770.3458.3264.330000.350.35FF38.34572.3487353.5406978345700.938441251424331654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 20:00:03FORECAST202378770.1258.2564.1850000.350.35FF38.12579.1287353.5406978345700.936187273887351654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 16:00:03FORECAST202378770.4958.3864.4350000.350.35FF38.49583.4987353.5406978345700.939942185121261654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 12:00:03FORECAST202378770.1358.2964.210000.350.35FF38.13583.1387353.5406978345700.936291096494751654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 08:00:03FORECAST202378770.3658.1864.270000.350.35FF38.36582.3687353.5406978345700.938643046441661654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 04:00:11FORECAST202378770.3658.1864.270000.350.35FF38.36582.3687353.5406978345700.938643046441661654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 00:00:04FORECAST202378769.9658.2464.10000.350.35FF37.96569.9687353.5406978345700.934508218352491654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 20:00:01FORECAST202378771.2858.5164.8950000.350.35FF39.28582.2887353.5406978345700.947380912393651654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 16:00:04FORECAST202378770.9157.4364.170000.350.35FF38.91579.9187353.5406978345700.943993080928421654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 12:00:03FORECAST202378768.1357.6162.870000.350.35FF36.13578.1387353.5406978345700.912799766438271654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 08:00:06FORECAST202378767.2857.9462.610000.350.35FF35.28578.2887353.5406978345700.901060608588151654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-04 04:00:13FORECAST202378770.856.1863.490000.350.35FF38.8578.887353.5406978345700.942953491321881654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 00:00:04FORECAST202378770.6156.7963.70000.350.35FF38.61565.6187353.5406978345700.941122243331481654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 20:00:05FORECAST202378771.3656.9764.1650000.350.35FF39.36582.3687353.5406978345700.948091657663721654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 16:00:06FORECAST202378771.2656.8164.0350000.350.35FF39.26581.2687353.5406978345700.947202028748221654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 12:00:05FORECAST202378770.4556.2563.350000.350.35FF38.45577.4587353.5406978345700.939544756905881654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 08:00:05FORECAST202378767.3856.1961.7850000.350.35FF35.38573.3887353.5406978345700.902498652315321654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-03 04:00:11FORECAST202378769.9456.1663.050000.350.35FF37.94579.9487353.5406978345700.934295957533241654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 00:00:07FORECAST202378770.8758.1764.520000.350.35FF38.87564.8787353.5406978345700.943616785021331654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 20:00:14FORECAST202378770.5855.8963.2350000.350.35FF38.58579.5887353.5406978345700.940828942525181654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 16:00:06FORECAST202378770.5556.0563.30000.350.35FF38.55577.5587353.5406978345700.940534500945621654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 12:00:05FORECAST202378768.455.1561.7750000.350.35FF36.4572.487353.5406978345700.916302654320791654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 08:00:08FORECAST202378766.0555.6460.8450000.350.35FF34.05567.0587353.5406978345700.882094226444241654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-02 04:00:20FORECAST202378766.0455.6460.840000.350.35FF34.04571.0487353.5406978345700.881930184132441654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-02 00:00:02FORECAST202378766.2850.8958.5850000.350.35FF34.28561.2887353.5406978345700.885822907933181654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-01 20:00:03FORECAST202378766.5951.959.2450000.350.35FF34.59576.5987353.5406978345700.890714942539121654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-01 16:00:07FORECAST202378766.5351.9259.2250000.350.35FF34.53572.5387353.5406978345700.889780006298331654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-01 12:00:04FORECAST202378769.455763.2250000.350.35FF37.45580.4587353.5406978345700.92892787647781654415165DRYH
2022-10-01 08:00:07FORECAST202378769.556.8963.1950000.350.35FF37.5567.587353.5406978345700.92949055526791654415165DRYH
2022-10-01 04:00:18FORECAST202378769.556.9163.2050000.350.35FF37.5581.587353.5406978345700.92949055526791654415165DRYH
2022-10-01 00:00:06FORECAST202378770.0856.4663.270000.350.35FF38.08578.0887353.5406978345700.93577067145661654415165DRYH
2022-09-30 20:00:04FORECAST202378769.9456.1363.0350000.350.35FF37.94585.9487353.5406978345700.934295957533241654415165DRYH
2022-09-30 16:00:04FORECAST202378769.9456.1663.050000.350.35FF37.94582.9487353.5406978345700.934295957533241654415165DRYH
2022-09-30 12:00:05FORECAST20237876758.3962.6950000.350.35FF3558487353.5406978345700.896951932715161654415232.5DRYL
2022-09-30 08:00:04FORECAST202378759.3158.0958.70000.350.35FF27.31566.3187353.5406978345700.73453341143661644415230DRYL
2022-09-30 04:00:10FORECAST202378759.3158.7859.0450000.350.35FF27.31570.3187353.5406978345700.73453341143661644415230DRYL