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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 6, 2022

[ Wednesday, October 5, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, October 7, 2022 ]

DAY 6 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/06/2022 12:00:04 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 70.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 55.13°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.80°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.940
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 566

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 88
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 354.47 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 86

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-10-06 00:00:04FORECAST202368670.4755.1362.800.00120.00120.350.3512FF38.47566.4788354.4675011412700.93955505899441654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 20:00:02FORECAST202368667.0454.7660.90000.350.35FF35.04573.0488354.4675011412700.892209143439561654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-05 16:00:02FORECAST202368671.3557.7364.540000.350.35FF39.35577.3588354.4675011412700.948591843582141654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 12:00:03FORECAST202368670.9557.6164.280000.350.35FF38.95576.9588354.4675011412700.944626644231351654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 08:00:02FORECAST202368671.3957.9564.670000.350.35FF39.39576.3988354.4675011412700.94897565720451654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 04:00:11FORECAST202368671.3957.9564.670000.350.35FF39.39576.3988354.4675011412700.94897565720451654415165DRYH
2022-10-05 00:00:04FORECAST202368670.9958.0164.50000.350.35FF38.99563.9988354.4675011412700.945033685353291654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 20:00:01FORECAST202368670.5557.6964.120000.350.35FF38.55574.5588354.4675011412700.94042460927791654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 16:00:03FORECAST202368670.3155.4962.90000.350.35FF38.31573.3188354.4675011412700.937786296473181654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 12:00:03FORECAST20236867157.6964.3450000.350.35FF3957488354.4675011412700.945135076528111654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 08:00:05FORECAST202368670.8657.6964.2750000.350.35FF38.86574.8688354.4675011412700.943702129375361654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 04:00:13FORECAST202368670.4358.0864.2550000.350.35FF38.43572.4388354.4675011412700.939116588171081654415165DRYH
2022-10-04 00:00:03FORECAST202368667.5558.3662.9550000.350.35FF35.55558.5588354.4675011412700.900573633995081654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-03 20:00:04FORECAST202368671.2155.8663.5350000.350.35FF39.21575.2188354.4675011412700.947230445386341654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 16:00:05FORECAST202368670.6757.4664.0650000.350.35FF38.67573.6788354.4675011412700.941710577589121654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 12:00:05FORECAST202368667.9255.261.560000.350.35FF35.92570.9288354.4675011412700.906338920248411654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-03 08:00:05FORECAST202368667.3556.8162.080000.350.35FF35.35570.3588354.4675011412700.897351638787931654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-03 04:00:10FORECAST202368670.6754.7362.70000.350.35FF38.67573.6788354.4675011412700.941710577589121654415165DRYH
2022-10-03 00:00:07FORECAST202368670.2156.5463.3750000.350.35FF38.21558.2188354.4675011412700.936660551809641654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 20:00:13FORECAST202368669.8355.3562.590000.350.35FF37.83572.8388354.4675011412700.932238127739081654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 16:00:05FORECAST202368669.4655.9862.720000.350.35FF37.46571.4688354.4675011412700.92770733329241654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 12:00:05FORECAST202368669.3656.3362.8450000.350.35FF37.36568.3688354.4675011412700.926443937725821654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 08:00:08FORECAST202368666.0356.6161.320000.350.35FF34.03565.0388354.4675011412700.87417875183691654415232.5DRYL
2022-10-02 04:00:19FORECAST20236867053.3961.6950000.350.35FF3856988354.4675011412700.934245107276231654415165DRYH
2022-10-02 00:00:02FORECAST202368668.6752.7860.7250000.350.35FF36.67558.6788354.4675011412700.917263822725681654415165DRYH
2022-10-01 20:00:03FORECAST202368669.7256.5163.1150000.350.35FF37.72573.7288354.4675011412700.930914577918051654415165DRYH
2022-10-01 16:00:07FORECAST202368669.7256.6963.2050000.350.35FF37.72569.7288354.4675011412700.930914577918051654415165DRYH
2022-10-01 12:00:04FORECAST202368671.0358.1764.60000.350.35FF39.03575.0388354.4675011412700.945438366269341654415165DRYH
2022-10-01 08:00:07FORECAST202368670.0956.9863.5350000.350.35FF38.09562.0988354.4675011412700.935288870573221654415165DRYH
2022-10-01 04:00:18FORECAST202368670.0556.9563.50000.350.35FF38.05576.0588354.4675011412700.93482656986591654415165DRYH
2022-10-01 00:00:06FORECAST202368668.9756.5262.7450000.350.35FF36.97571.9788354.4675011412700.921355551908451654415165DRYH
2022-09-30 20:00:04FORECAST202368669.0156.4262.7150000.350.35FF37.01580.0188354.4675011412700.921889361163131654415165DRYH
2022-09-30 16:00:03FORECAST202368669.0156.4262.7150000.350.35FF37.01577.0188354.4675011412700.921889361163131654415165DRYH
2022-09-30 12:00:05FORECAST202368669.7457.1363.4350000.350.35FF37.74580.7488354.4675011412700.931156688827311654415165DRYH
2022-09-30 08:00:04FORECAST202368669.3156.9663.1350000.350.35FF37.31571.3188354.4675011412700.925805963896821654415165DRYH
2022-09-30 04:00:09FORECAST202368669.3156.9863.1450000.350.35FF37.31575.3188354.4675011412700.925805963896821654415165DRYH
2022-09-30 00:00:04FORECAST202368670.0753.3261.6950000.120.12FF38.07575.0788354.4675011412700.93505803846721654415165DRYH
2022-09-29 20:00:04FORECAST202368670.6354.8662.7450000.130.13FF38.63582.6388354.4675011412700.941284358287121654415165DRYH
2022-09-29 16:00:05FORECAST202368670.6254.8662.740000.130.13FF38.62583.6288354.4675011412700.941177423452151654415165DRYH
2022-09-29 12:00:04FORECAST202368662.2852.2657.270000.130.13FF30.28577.2888354.4675011412700.789598956288161644415230DRYL
2022-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST202368655.5553.5554.550000.130.13FF23.55566.5588354.4675011412700.576450866976311634415227.5DRYL
2022-09-29 04:00:08FORECAST202368655.4854.7455.110000.150.15FF23.48569.4888354.4675011412700.573956032954511634415227.5DRYL