Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 31, 2022

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DAY 31 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/01/2022 04:00:25 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.08°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.21°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.64°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.410 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 238 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 2.37 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 4.05 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.81 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.86 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 10 in SWE DAY: 63 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 337.14 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 3.48 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 111 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 5 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 67.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-11-01 04:00:25	OBSERVATION	2023	31	111	39.07994	28.20992	33.64493	10.334625	2.37	4.05	2.81	6.86	T	T	7.07994	238.07994	63	337.14278999796	3.4842443060826	0.40963389744245	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	H
2022-11-01 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	31	111	28.27	28.27	28.27	15.036660007622	0.009	1.689	2.81	4.499	T	F	-3.73	227.27	62	339.25755786391	5.1013005526159	0.084444666436444	16	1	5	2	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2022-10-31 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	31	111	33.98	27.91	30.945	15.108121706848	0.3066	1.9866	2.81	4.7966	T	F	1.98	232.98	62	339.30450049559	5.1262536891686	0.22080221266457	16	1	5	2	5	2	2	40	WET	L
2022-10-31 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	31	111	38.09	27.67	32.88	16.088192041622	0.7918	2.4718	2.81	5.2818	T	F	6.09	237.09	62	339.94744201666	5.4691397312222	0.36938187560807	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-31 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	31	111	40.31	27.77	34.04	16.054351367509	1.3414	3.0214	2.81	5.8314	T	T	8.31	239.31	62	339.92526867105	5.4572797019399	0.46096072864544	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-31 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	31	111	41.4	29.16	35.28	17.593484406663	2.2817	2.3617	2.81	5.1717	T	F	9.4	240.4	63	341.90645185069	6.0153258291726	0.50702229304852	16	3	5	2	5	2	2	50	WET	L
2022-10-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	31	111	41.59	28.48	35.035	17.179712639139	2.2617	3.4417	2.81	6.2517	T	T	9.59	239.59	63	341.63726624774	5.869230060957	0.5150591181536	16	3	5	2	5	2	2	50	WET	L
2022-10-30 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	31	111	40.26	28.86	34.56	17.218332487062	2.214	3.394	2.81	6.204	T	T	8.26	238.26	63	341.66240295746	5.8828568524502	0.45885562390256	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	31	111	38.91	28.09	33.5	16.466088060976	1.8767	3.0567	2.81	5.8667	T	T	6.91	236.91	63	341.17234153368	5.617773819663	0.40264276403549	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-30 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	31	111	40.44	28.52	34.48	16.610708597739	1.7222	2.9122	2.81	5.7222	T	T	8.44	239.44	63	341.26662956801	5.6686805378865	0.46643897675553	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-30 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	31	111	40.36	28.52	34.44	16.547404084599	1.7098	2.9398	2.81	5.7498	T	T	8.36	239.36	63	341.22536128181	5.6463939370432	0.46306692790069	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	31	111	40.82	28.24	34.53	19.149780016362	1.7898	3.1398	2.81	5.9498	T	T	8.82	234.82	63	342.9163945416	6.5667735194755	0.48248500487156	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	31	111	40.84	28.28	34.56	18.87053259248	1.8591	3.0991	2.81	5.9091	T	T	8.84	239.84	63	342.73547345858	6.4676009224993	0.48333054789384	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-29 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	31	111	41.8	28.93	35.365	18.982679818306	2.0181	3.2281	2.81	6.0381	T	T	9.8	241.8	63	342.80814773151	6.5074173074937	0.52393468004574	16	3	5	2	5	2	2	50	WET	L
2022-10-29 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	31	111	39.8	27.97	33.885	18.483061205468	2.0028	3.1928	2.81	6.0028	T	T	7.8	241.8	63	342.48422270055	6.3301568500816	0.43955024267072	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	31	111	39.51	28.63	34.07	18.085745657986	1.8726	3.0626	2.81	5.8726	T	T	7.51	239.51	63	342.22633171817	6.1894183929203	0.42744998206826	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-29 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	31	111	39.24	28	33.62	16.940005019294	1.8014	2.6914	2.81	5.5014	T	T	7.24	239.24	63	341.48119128876	5.7846930944262	0.41624499734595	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-29 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	31	111	39.1	27.32	33.21	32.841361743029	1.7617	2.5717	2.57	5.1417	T	F	7.1	235.1	63	351.6314435917	11.548055439219	0.41046108782374	16	2	5	2	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2022-10-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	31	111	38.54	27.06	32.8	32.207616907873	1.6373	2.5273	2.62	5.1473	T	F	6.54	242.54	63	351.23470293706	11.312432756947	0.38753144402026	16	2	5	2	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2022-10-28 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	31	111	38.34	28.84	33.59	32.440453077588	1.707	2.597	2.62	5.217	T	F	6.34	241.34	63	351.38053862046	11.398943875495	0.37943195294406	16	2	5	2	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2022-10-28 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	31	111	38.31	29.21	33.76	31.681234904967	1.7682	2.7082	2.62	5.3282	T	F	6.31	240.31	63	350.90468833005	11.117093860238	0.37822148177287	16	2	5	2	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2022-10-28 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	31	111	40.69	28.31	34.5	32.251688611651	1.9906	3.1406	2.9	6.0406	T	T	8.69	239.69	63	351.26231362979	11.328802760196	0.47699106493883	16	2	5	2	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2022-10-28 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	31	111	39.17	28.16	33.665	32.651705389551	2.0569	3.3569	3.11	6.4669	T	T	7.17	243.17	63	351.51278076563	11.477491758221	0.41335069247884	16	2	5	2	5	1	2	22.5	WET	L
2022-10-28 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	31	111	41.49	30.15	35.82	25.419641823111	1.3583	2.6883	2.95	5.6383	T	T	9.49	245.49	63	346.94495944761	8.819216601492	0.51082976548952	16	3	5	2	5	2	2	50	WET	L
2022-10-27 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	31	111	39.28	31.1	35.19	25.241338054432	1.4028	2.4428	3.01	5.4528	T	F	7.28	243.28	63	346.831278284	8.7544855430173	0.41790093764157	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-27 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	31	111	40.92	28.88	34.9	25.290225348773	1.094	2.294	3.11	5.404	T	F	8.92	249.92	63	346.86245248752	8.7722295884374	0.48671343173206	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-27 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	31	111	39.1	29	34.05	24.833818227321	1.4727	2.7727	3.12	5.8927	T	T	7.1	249.1	63	346.5712624115	8.6066877335405	0.41046108782374	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	31	111	39.52	30.22	34.87	24.785680321895	1.5616	2.7516	3.16	5.9116	T	T	7.52	248.52	63	346.54053049768	8.5892428074952	0.42786616609718	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-27 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	31	111	39.48	30.62	35.05	24.649116730532	1.5069	2.6669	3.13	5.7969	T	T	7.48	245.48	63	346.45332593239	8.5397684725885	0.42620191604823	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-27 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	31	111	37.62	27.39	32.505	9.1086270009314	1.1506	3.5706	2.8	6.3706	T	T	5.62	248.62	63	336.32951731843	3.0635001226569	0.35073205804938	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	H
2022-10-26 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	31	111	37.26	26.75	32.005	8.737159372547	1.05	3.4	2.97	6.37	T	T	5.26	245.26	63	336.08260183512	2.9364072545737	0.33668364546688	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	H
2022-10-26 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	31	111	36.78	26.2	31.49	8.5955288738292	1.056	3.446	3.16	6.606	T	T	4.78	248.78	63	335.98839831685	2.8879979790041	0.31830394153498	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	L
2022-10-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	31	111	41.31	28.84	35.075	7.9594296583271	1.5053	2.3453	3.13	5.4753	T	F	9.31	250.31	63	335.56488779622	2.6709051202184	0.50321418072866	16	3	5	2	5	3	2	75	WET	M
2022-10-26 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	31	111	39.17	27.17	33.17	8.3585499023432	1.5863	2.7763	3.18	5.9563	T	T	7.17	253.17	63	335.83069930335	2.8070576588659	0.41335069247884	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	H
2022-10-26 04:00:19	FORECAST	2023	31	111	39.18	27.11	33.145	7.9324164383368	1.5863	2.9463	3.4	6.3463	T	T	7.18	255.18	63	335.5468874278	2.6616976456651	0.41376388037369	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	H
2022-10-26 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	31	111	42.73	27.38	35.055	11.918479978459	2.282	4.352	2.45	6.802	T	T	10.73	251.73	63	338.1897067945	4.0307072493511	0.56303830266347	16	3	5	2	5	3	2	75	WET	H
2022-10-25 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	31	111	42.93	28.77	35.85	8.5829670836089	2.4281	4.8381	3.36	8.1981	T	T	10.93	262.93	63	335.98004138389	2.8837056359475	0.57138095714695	16	3	5	2	5	3	2	75	WET	H
2022-10-25 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	31	111	41.67	28.72	35.195	8.7368527072863	2.4281	4.3781	3.65	8.0281	T	T	9.67	259.67	63	336.08239789768	2.9363024079436	0.51844140381143	16	3	5	2	5	3	2	75	WET	H
2022-10-25 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	31	111	38.54	27.46	33	14.695972272044	2.2534	3.0134	3.97	6.9834	T	T	6.54	252.54	63	340.01547107174	4.9968579349363	0.38753144402026	16	2	5	2	5	3	2	67.5	WET	H
2022-10-25 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	31	111	35.37	25.27	30.32	18.768203585719	2.1794	2.9694	3.88	6.8494	T	T	3.37	239.37	63	342.66914357816	6.4312842492189	0.26696480754642	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-25 04:00:17	FORECAST	2023	31	111	38.32	25.23	31.775	19.372212075972	2.1794	3.0094	3.63	6.6394	T	T	6.32	242.32	63	343.06041383641	6.6458390917096	0.37862484008005	16	2	5	2	5	2	2	45	WET	L
2022-10-25 00:00:12	FORECAST	2023	31	111	34.62	27.91	31.265	7.2263388102926	0.6905	1.3605	3.41	4.7705	T	F	2.62	237.62	63	335.07595143184	2.4213723522276	0.24146907032689	16	1	5	2	4	4	2	64	WET	L
2022-10-24 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	31	111	34.44	24.33	29.385	8.9667201726046	0.5656	1.3856	4.15	5.5356	T	F	2.44	245.44	63	336.23521898539	3.0149271208164	0.235552707644	16	1	5	2	4	3	2	48	WET	L
2022-10-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	31	111	34.44	24.61	29.525	7.6544286329324	0.4733	1.2533	3.86	5.1133	T	F	2.44	244.44	63	335.36157735915	2.5670012601232	0.235552707644	16	1	5	2	4	3	2	48	WET	L
2022-10-24 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	31	111	39.19	33.3	36.245	6.0944056745474	0.4695	1.0595	3.76	4.8195	T	F	7.19	249.19	63	334.31921601068	2.0374769271658	0.41417716375005	16	2	5	2	4	4	2	72	WET	M
2022-10-24 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	31	111	36.32	33.82	35.07	7.7831826659479	0.0771	0.4471	4.46	4.9071	T	F	4.32	246.32	63	335.44742263824	2.6108485652148	0.30109911121324	16	2	5	2	2	3	2	27	WET	M
2022-10-24 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	31	111	36.25	34.87	35.56	NAN	0.0265	0.3965	4.58	4.9765	T	F	4.25	248.25	63	NAN	NAN	0.2985180946434	16	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	M