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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, October 24, 2022

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DAY 24 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/25/2022 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.74°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.68°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.21°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.084
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 457

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.41 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.59 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.63 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.22 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 10 in
SWE DAY: 70
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 343.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 3.32 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 104

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 5
D2: 3
D3: 3
D4: 3
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-10-25 04:00:11OBSERVATION20232410431.7400828.6800830.210089.67517750.409999999999970.589999999999970.631.22FF-0.25992456.7400870343.56183465703 3.32402173253240.0842150075362216 15333240.5DRYM
2022-10-25 00:00:01FORECAST20232410428.7128.7128.711.01581273056050.00390.18390.630.8139FF-3.29453.7169336.915889103720.342243449279660.0471809585044731615324236DRYL
2022-10-24 12:00:01FORECAST20232410437.225.5331.3651.45411333958820.42760.60760.631.2376FF5.2462.269337.206276748510.490336145212880.198882003552571615334254DRYMH
2022-10-24 08:00:02FORECAST20232410433.8826.1330.0052.48958561261720.831.010.631.64FF1.88458.8869337.891026324330.841208637769530.121245363220271615344272DRYH
2022-10-24 04:00:12FORECAST20232410432.8223.9328.375NAN1.17581.35580.631.9858FF0.82457.8269NANNAN0.101680870669341615345290DRYVH
2022-10-24 00:00:02FORECAST20232410434.4626.8930.6759.45984628302061.17991.35990.631.9899FF2.46490.4670343.422688563593.24872584391320.133003265907321615343254DRYMH
2022-10-23 20:00:01FORECAST20232410434.5126.0530.289.94835301476891.18091.37090.632.0009FF2.51497.5170343.738250002143.41962945570020.134052322121191615343254DRYMH
2022-10-23 16:00:01FORECAST20232410435.7928.2332.019.01649537955891.1311.3210.631.951FF3.79498.7970343.13595737363.09388377421960.162844409635451615343254DRYMH
2022-10-23 12:00:01FORECAST20232410436.328.5432.428.48773753734831.06781.25780.631.8878FF4.3499.370342.793567949832.90954183424930.175358463632321615443260DRYH
2022-10-23 08:00:02FORECAST20232410435.9427.8731.9058.79632152466871.06671.26670.631.8967FF3.94498.9470342.993442878663.01708060441380.166463385404961615343254DRYMH
2022-10-23 04:00:18FORECAST20232410435.4727.9731.729.19962807746211.08081.29080.631.9208FF3.47498.4770343.254435107283.15781313892630.155295821566681615343254DRYMH
2022-10-23 00:00:03FORECAST20232410433.8327.5930.7113.9225386515871.09051.13050.631.7605FF1.83494.8370346.290962614324.82124931169320.120266992707151615343254DRYMH
2022-10-22 20:00:02FORECAST20232410434.0928.3431.21512.9033063167871.0091.2090.631.839FF2.09501.0970345.638740636874.45988254538610.125415401863331615443260DRYH
2022-10-22 16:00:02FORECAST20232410435.728.3232.0113.1156386958661.16521.36520.631.9952FF3.7502.770345.774754568484.53505675107180.160697706629891615443260DRYH
2022-10-22 12:00:03FORECAST20232410435.6228.3731.99513.7251281122181.19621.39620.632.0262FF3.62502.6270346.164768478174.75115579529930.158805072008331615443260DRYH
2022-10-22 08:00:04FORECAST20232410436.9728.6632.81514.2030747981741.13251.40250.632.0325FF4.97502.9770346.470185744634.92094196346830.192696885832461615443260DRYH
2022-10-22 04:00:08FORECAST20232410436.0426.6831.3615.6352189363341.21361.63360.632.2636FF4.04501.0470347.383136927255.43141140064810.168904587249531615452250DRYMH
2022-10-22 00:00:05FORECAST20232410435.9227.1131.5155.31556635874871.18941.77940.031.8094FF3.92493.9270340.72979203991.81117181999070.165977885238631615354290DRYVH
2022-10-21 20:00:02FORECAST20232410435.9528.6332.293.79814580066321.18241.76240.582.3424FF3.95500.9570339.736681606621.29036945057540.1667064780841716154542100DRYVH
2022-10-21 16:00:04FORECAST20232410436.2628.8332.5452.19076491116371.19031.86030.582.4403FF4.26500.2670338.680511403340.74196938047740.1743555340974116154542100DRYVH
2022-10-21 12:00:04FORECAST20232410438.3229.0833.72.56680091452671.4552.1450.582.725TF6.32502.3270338.927981886740.869960653865560.2306664533884416154542100DRYVH
2022-10-21 09:54:44FORECAST20232410435.1429.5932.3651.74938655452041.32962.01960.672.6896FF3.14496.1470338.389737205580.591974456455120.147756473728761615354290DRYVH
2022-10-21 08:00:05FORECAST20232410435.1429.5932.3656.73813676164261.32962.01960.652.6696FF3.14497.1470341.657355759272.30213398872710.147756473728761615354290DRYVH
2022-10-21 04:00:13FORECAST20232410436.2629.3132.7857.4167050264741.10681.76680.712.4768FF4.26500.2670342.098625812832.53724459761590.174355534097411615453275DRYVH
2022-10-21 00:00:02FORECAST20232410436.3730.4533.4111.7336560048760.97111.73110.822.5511FF4.37486.3770344.88818031454.0467992679580.177122350629771615353267.5DRYH
2022-10-20 20:00:03FORECAST20232410436.9730.4633.71512.5386637780490.98331.73330.782.5133FF4.97507.9770345.404990032074.33091703727250.192696885832461615453275DRYVH
2022-10-20 16:00:04FORECAST20232410439.0829.9634.5212.7211094326110.90711.63710.862.4971FF7.08508.0870345.521972132634.39542281887070.253754815814561625453282.5DRYVH
2022-10-20 12:00:06FORECAST20232410436.7629.7233.2411.9086213174870.64471.44470.792.2347FF4.76507.7670345.000596795044.10848146153920.187153278993231615443260DRYH
2022-10-20 08:00:04FORECAST20232410436.1126.1831.14513.584012870460.7091.7790.82.579FF4.11505.1170346.074522163264.70108076320390.170627008785481615453275DRYVH
2022-10-20 04:00:20FORECAST20232410436.128.0432.0713.0115535627110.6591.7490.852.599FF4.1504.170345.708089832634.49819932791980.170380264159881615453275DRYVH
2022-10-20 00:00:03FORECAST20232410438.7328.7833.7558.3598268205040.56851.54850.822.3685FF6.73495.7370342.710672134062.86500186857930.242974015659391615353267.5DRYH
2022-10-19 20:00:03FORECAST20232410438.7328.7933.769.81697330134280.56851.41850.792.2085FF6.73512.7370343.65342093643.37363645824770.242974015659391615443260DRYH
2022-10-19 16:00:03FORECAST20232410435.4430.7733.1059.64151093910570.56821.52820.852.3782FF3.44506.4470343.54008449113.31224548264220.154600144162291615453275DRYVH
2022-10-19 12:00:04FORECAST20232410435.8531.7533.87.5332000661130.6231.6030.862.463FF3.85506.8570342.174305577272.57766750139690.164285830602871615453275DRYVH
2022-10-19 09:06:05FORECAST20232410435.8531.7533.85.88005496177380.6231.5030.722.223FF3.85504.8570341.098258737442.00567650874150.1642858306028716154542100DRYVH
2022-10-19 08:00:03FORECAST20232410435.931.7333.8155.71763516246580.6231.5030.722.223FF3.9504.970340.992294275641.94966953188030.165493298756216154542100DRYVH
2022-10-19 04:00:19FORECAST20232410436.8528.7432.7955.68626691607770.53481.45480.772.2248FF4.85506.8570340.971824249871.93885680354670.189516954309561615444280DRYVH
2022-10-19 00:00:20FORECAST20232410437.7730.133.9351.58697925889560.46581.39580.722.1158FF5.77503.7770338.282663368020.536847570409030.21471645995831615444280DRYVH
2022-10-18 20:00:03FORECAST20232410438.7927.7633.2751.54036338980340.43471.45470.932.3847FF6.79513.7970338.251921737130.521030876774520.24480440830621615444280DRYVH
2022-10-18 16:00:04FORECAST20232410438.7927.6433.2151.98935887177730.43471.55471.092.6447FF6.79512.7970338.547868216860.673493205158510.244804408306216154542100DRYVH
2022-10-18 14:52:30FORECAST20232410438.7927.6433.2152.64571390213050.43471.56471.112.6747FF6.79515.7970338.979884774250.896843793689840.244804408306216154542100DRYVH
2022-10-18 14:49:43FORECAST20232410438.7927.6433.21500.43471.56471.112.6747FF6.79515.7970337.234052736900.244804408306216154552125DRYVH
2022-10-18 12:00:03FORECAST20232410437.6727.8832.77500.67331.73331.232.9633TF5.67513.6770337.234052736900.2118867734056116154552125DRYVH
2022-10-18 08:00:03FORECAST20232410438.330.7534.52500.59522.06521.233.2952TF6.3514.370337.234052736900.2300751127150416154552125DRYVH
2022-10-18 04:00:04FORECAST20232410438.330.7634.5300.59521.90521.183.0852TF6.3515.370337.234052736900.2300751127150416154552125DRYVH
2022-10-18 00:00:04FORECAST20232410435.3326.6230.97500.57321.80320.732.5332FF3.33506.3370337.234052736900.1520669262284916154552125DRYVH
2022-10-17 20:00:06FORECAST20232410437.329.6433.4700.45351.58350.582.1635FF5.3527.370337.234052736900.2016080149674216154552125DRYVH
2022-10-17 16:00:03FORECAST20232410437.2929.6833.48500.44331.72330.642.3633FF5.29527.2970337.234052736900.2013344128617316154552125DRYVH
2022-10-17 12:00:12FORECAST20232410437.9127.3532.6300.64171.67170.532.2017FF5.91530.9170337.234052736900.2187146148706716154552125DRYVH
2022-10-17 08:00:10FORECAST20232410437.8831.1734.52500.391.260.571.83FF5.88520.8870337.234052736900.2178542852012816154452100DRYVH
2022-10-17 04:00:28FORECAST20232410437.8835.0936.48500.13331.00330.551.5533FF5.88534.8870337.234052736900.2178542852012816154452100DRYVH