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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 1, 2022

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DAY 1 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/26/2022 12:00:09 PM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 65.17°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.97°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.796
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 33
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 484

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.37 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.57 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 93
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 359.05 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 81

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-26 12:00:09FORECAST202318165.1748.9757.07000.370.20.57FF33.17484.1793359.0490560206200.79557897913791644325255DRYH
2022-09-26 08:00:03FORECAST202318165.1448.9757.055000.40.250.65FF33.14479.1493359.0490560206200.794880626032841644325255DRYH
2022-09-26 04:00:10FORECAST202318164.0848.1956.135000.350.270.62FF32.08476.0893359.0490560206200.769309762008151644325255DRYH
2022-09-26 00:00:08FORECAST202318166.3249.8658.09000.430.260.69FF34.32467.3293359.0490560206200.82127213976621644325255DRYH
2022-09-25 20:00:06FORECAST202318165.8249.8557.835000.310.280.59FF33.82477.8293359.0490560206200.810360582303941644325255DRYH
2022-09-25 16:00:04FORECAST202318164.8349.0356.93000.30.190.49FF32.83473.8393359.0490560206200.787581828958921644325255DRYH
2022-09-25 12:00:04FORECAST202318161.548.0254.7600.00410.37410.110.4841FF29.5472.593359.0490560206200.700244490266151644325255DRYH
2022-09-25 08:00:06FORECAST202318162.8548.3155.58000.280.080.36FF30.85471.8593359.0490560206200.737531264727461644325255DRYH
2022-09-25 04:00:14FORECAST202318162.9348.3155.62000.280.080.36FF30.93469.9393359.0490560206200.739664102932891644325255DRYH
2022-09-25 00:00:04FORECAST202318164.3346.5155.42000.20.120.32FF32.33465.3393359.0490560206200.775495868505821644325255DRYH
2022-09-24 20:00:04FORECAST202318163.9545.9454.945000.250.130.38FF31.95469.9593359.0490560206200.766055792007161644325255DRYH
2022-09-24 16:00:10FORECAST202318163.8545.9654.905000.250.130.38FF31.85472.8593359.0490560206200.763535562602071644325255DRYH
2022-09-24 12:00:08FORECAST202318154.7447.4951.11500.10440.47440.140.6144FF22.74470.7493359.0490560206200.488467391505631624325245DRYM
2022-09-24 08:00:04FORECAST202318151.1147.7249.41500.07810.44810.10.5481FF19.11462.1193359.0490560206200.372058823055891624325245DRYM
2022-09-24 04:00:09FORECAST202318152.2451.6851.96000.420.10.52FF20.24464.2493359.0490560206200.4075713223991624325245DRYM