MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 9, 2022

[ Saturday, January 8, 2022 | Index | Today | Monday, January 10, 2022 ]

DAY 101 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/10/2022 07:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.77°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.12°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.44°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.650
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -144

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.78 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 11.94 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.72 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 133 in
SWE DAY: 9
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 362.56 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 48.22 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -183

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-10 07:00:05OBSERVATION2022101-18335.7699227.1200231.44497297.883262501.7811.9413.72TT3.76992-144.230089443.67444013641 132.163189715690.6502318598427116 31151212.5WETL
2022-01-10 03:00:06OBSERVATION2022101-18335.7699227.1200231.44497297.883262501.7811.9413.72TT3.76992-144.230089443.67444013641 132.163189715690.6502318598427116 31151212.5WETL
2022-01-09 11:00:01FORECAST2022101-18339.5732.3435.955298.732242666670.00221.782211.9413.7222TT7.57-140.439444.00665529315132.639103894650.798009664681781641151215WETL
2022-01-09 07:00:06FORECAST2022101-18340.1229.8634.99299.006673389520.00241.782411.9413.7224TT8.12-139.889444.1138898917132.79301682260.815801033147221641151215WETL
2022-01-09 03:00:07FORECAST2022101-18335.8628.532.18299.129496366530.00311.783111.9413.7231TT3.86-144.149444.1618591172132.861913222950.654160950492361631151212.5WETL
2022-01-08 23:00:02FORECAST2022101-18339.7928.434.095298.7663546666701.6811.9413.62TT7.79-138.219444.01998872433132.65823343030.805246071812221641151215WETL
2022-01-08 19:00:02FORECAST2022101-18339.7630.4235.09298.7432853333301.6811.9413.62TT7.76-138.249444.0109716906132.645296406890.804268660002551641151215WETL
2022-01-08 15:00:01FORECAST2022101-18339.4529.4134.43298.7265573333301.6811.9413.62TT7.45-138.559444.0044329423132.635915693590.793995737036971641151215WETL
2022-01-08 11:00:02FORECAST2022101-18339.5130.6135.06298.888111849440.00021.680211.9413.6202TT7.51-138.499444.06757079777132.726517769310.796008571256291641151215WETL
2022-01-08 07:00:09FORECAST2022101-18339.4828.734.09299.311301521380.00021.710211.9413.6502TT7.48-140.529444.23283670948132.963908534050.795003619755331641151215WETL
2022-01-08 03:00:04FORECAST2022101-18339.7729.9534.86299.554779418640.00021.760211.9413.7002TT7.77-138.239444.32784030653133.100528192580.804594793575551641151215WETL
2022-01-07 23:00:02FORECAST2022101-18339.5229.3734.445299.6256833082100.5311.9412.47TT7.52-140.489444.35549552933133.140318979730.7963429030141164113129WETL
2022-01-07 19:00:02FORECAST2022101-18339.1429.7734.455299.5576139694600.5111.9412.45TT7.14-140.869444.3289459851133.102118876860.78341034163672164113129WETL
2022-01-07 15:00:03FORECAST2022101-18340.5830.2335.405299.8263327289400.611.9412.54TT8.58-138.429444.43372947602133.252935249840.82990826748228164113129WETL
2022-01-07 11:00:02FORECAST2022101-18340.6530.1535.4302.4145136473600.6511.9412.59TT8.65-138.359445.43930466057134.707310678340.83199282165808164113129WETL
2022-01-07 07:00:06FORECAST2022101-18340.3830.2135.295304.5424447570.00021.130211.9413.0702TT8.38-131.629446.26112339314135.905453518150.823861743281281641141212WETL
2022-01-07 03:00:07FORECAST2022101-18340.429.1134.755305.737560712050.00021.370211.9413.3102TT8.4-139.69446.72073957974136.579309238590.824472432522981641141212WETL
2022-01-06 23:00:02FORECAST2022101-18340.2329.9835.105305.392180052440.00392.133910.0412.1739TT8.23-132.779446.58805683175136.384500261230.819238896488921641151215WETL
2022-01-06 19:00:02FORECAST2022101-18338.8829.8934.385305.90143473820.00292.052910.0412.0929TT6.88-138.129446.78365334457136.671760575680.774294980708561641151215WETL
2022-01-06 15:00:02FORECAST2022101-18338.3529.5233.935305.397381443350.00071.830710.0411.8707TT6.35-138.659446.59005588126136.387433644780.755059035556261641151215WETL
2022-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2022101-18337.3628.8433.1310.478074278870.00061.900610.0411.9406TT5.36-137.649448.53015922496139.258780092160.716891414901241641151215WETL
2022-01-06 07:00:08FORECAST2022101-18334.9927.6131.3313.544547689580.00052.030510.9212.9505TT2.99-144.019449.68905828359140.997552380480.615579883631311631151212.5WETL
2022-01-06 03:00:10FORECAST2022101-18338.2826.132.19315.178737379570.00111.941111.4313.3711TT6.28-139.729450.30298342301141.925925753520.752454195705051641151215WETL
2022-01-05 23:00:03FORECAST2022101-18338.928.2833.59147.726127307801.7312.6314.36TT6.9-137.19372.0625870487654.9633651008340.775003763827731641151215WETL
2022-01-05 19:00:03FORECAST2022101-1833926.5432.77143.5097679449901.7912.7314.52TT7-1369369.6309718400353.0456549940430.778528732389981641151215WETL
2022-01-05 15:00:03FORECAST2022101-18339.0427.4933.265144.9339349762901.612.7714.37TT7.04-134.969370.4552169250353.691532321440.779929847208091641151215WETL
2022-01-05 11:00:04FORECAST2022101-18339.0527.9433.495146.8465424724701.6212.7714.39TT7.05-134.959371.5574693699154.5619297067910.780279331205821641151215WETL
2022-01-05 07:00:05FORECAST2022101-18334.9627.7931.375150.1239489332201.5512.4814.03TT2.96-140.049373.4338622516256.0613660665970.614226278500881631151212.5WETL
2022-01-05 03:00:06FORECAST2022101-18336.2626.8631.56146.9563259905901.4712.6714.14TT4.26-137.749371.6205762162954.6119945432530.671403402794631631141210WETL
2022-01-04 23:00:03FORECAST2022101-18344.6228.536.56141.6363710185101.5112.0813.59TT12.62-129.389368.5421816502452.1989771761860.923829933097761651151217.5WETL
2022-01-04 19:00:03FORECAST2022101-18346.3929.1337.76145.4867956203301.6511.8413.49TT14.39-125.619370.7743857575153.9427772819570.949584594380571651151217.5WETL
2022-01-04 15:00:03FORECAST2022101-18346.4229.6338.025143.4971430582901.4411.2912.73TT14.42-128.589369.623651771353.0399380359540.94995241361591651141214WETL
2022-01-04 11:00:03FORECAST2022101-18341.2629.135.18145.6561966478501.7110.9512.66TT9.26-135.749370.8720920291154.019818367790.849460339071351651151217.5WETL
2022-01-04 07:00:05FORECAST2022101-18341.430.3335.865144.2641308062301.5711.5213.09TT9.4-129.69370.0679351777553.3875290076750.853292607083051651151217.5WETL
2022-01-04 03:00:07FORECAST2022101-18341.4430.3535.895145.7260835826701.5511.3112.86TT9.44-125.569370.9123888153154.0516097743480.854375444213121651151217.5WETL
2022-01-03 23:00:04FORECAST2022101-18341.6731.636.635135.701257556630.00041.000410.8311.8304TT9.67-136.339365.0583758385249.5388806828680.860497601917751651141214WETL
2022-01-03 19:00:03FORECAST2022101-18340.2629.1134.685135.2335870327700.9211.0211.94TT8.26-129.749364.7816228585349.3307273427940.82016948553092164113129WETL
2022-01-03 15:00:02FORECAST2022101-18340.2329.5434.885133.2319521573701.0810.4111.49TT8.23-135.779363.5933954539148.4422578678520.819238896488921641141212WETL
2022-01-03 11:00:05FORECAST2022101-18339.9731.7535.86139.650275181330.05041.540410.8312.3704TT7.97-132.039367.3822207073951.3050282185140.811048097522971641151215WETL
2022-01-03 07:00:05FORECAST2022101-18339.8330.8935.36144.797750123780.05060.980611.7712.7506TT7.83-130.179370.3765279992353.6296879529460.80654466935031164113129WETL
2022-01-03 03:00:04FORECAST2022101-18339.8129.2934.55144.390173999160.05060.980612.1413.1206TT7.81-132.199370.1408638725753.4447037387590.80589603071445164113129WETL
2022-01-02 23:00:04FORECAST2022101-18341.0730.6435.855148.1256539730901.3712.1113.48TT9.07-130.939372.2916500967455.1459441393010.844153952622761641141212WETL
2022-01-02 19:00:04FORECAST2022101-18341.731.3836.54151.1486209034701.5212.7414.26TT9.7-123.39374.0173132234656.5322010877470.861283081879541651151217.5WETL
2022-01-02 15:00:03FORECAST2022101-18341.7632.1736.965151.5946485384301.5212.5814.1TT9.76-118.249374.2708085804656.7374516849490.862845015645611651151217.5WETL
2022-01-02 11:00:04FORECAST2022101-18333.1128.2930.7161.3159660694702.2312.0414.27TT1.11-129.899379.7250774199761.2557177048060.528698091331291631151212.5WETL
2022-01-02 07:00:09FORECAST2022101-18332.1329.4230.775158.6785234674902.4711.2813.75TT0.13-137.879378.2585943005960.0215152325060.482583457201791621151210WETL
2022-01-02 03:00:10FORECAST2022101-18329.2629.0329.145159.0901621257802.4711.1813.65TT-2.74-133.749378.48812303660.2137368564790.351076775451381621151210WETL