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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 4, 2022

[ Monday, January 3, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, January 5, 2022 ]

DAY 96 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/05/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.04°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.34°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.186
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -148

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.85 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.64 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.86 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.50 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 129 in
SWE DAY: 4
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 356.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 46.08 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -188

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-05 07:00:04OBSERVATION202296-18824.6300818.0399221.335129.212340.850000000000022.648.8611.5TT-7.36992-148.369924356.64840576792 46.0833750665420.1863099639020516 1115127.5WETL
2022-01-05 03:00:04OBSERVATION202296-18824.6300818.0399221.335129.212340.850000000000022.648.8611.5TT-7.36992-148.369924356.64840576792 46.0833750665420.1863099639020516 1115127.5WETL
2022-01-04 11:00:01FORECAST202296-18825.1718.1221.645126.021959024530.35622.14628.8611.0062TT-6.83-147.834354.6854644747244.698157070630.20461825355982161115127.5WETL
2022-01-04 07:00:04FORECAST202296-18828.115.8421.97127.762963588690.61922.40928.8611.2692TT-3.9-144.94355.758621440245.4527757974270.320846858459361621151210WETL
2022-01-04 03:00:06FORECAST202296-18828.3915.6322.01128.54062465880.74692.53698.8611.3969TT-3.61-144.614356.2364413416545.7908546962830.333701601187131621151210WETL
2022-01-03 23:00:01FORECAST202296-18825.3915.6420.515112.679893928940.87841.75848.8610.6184TT-6.61-151.614346.3019532620139.0212673609470.2123745194485161115127.5WETL
2022-01-03 19:00:01FORECAST202296-18829.6716.623.135113.326165791060.89821.77828.8610.6382TT-2.33-147.334346.7146203414939.2918385470050.392614748141871621151210WETL
2022-01-03 15:00:01FORECAST202296-18823.0618.0620.56113.562989754870.98421.86428.8610.7242TT-8.94-153.944346.8656711677639.391102661140.13906167142103161115127.5WETL
2022-01-03 11:00:03FORECAST202296-18825.3619.6722.515115.649125517780.95651.83658.8610.6965TT-6.64-151.644348.1923301189140.268138490250.21130686046409161115127.5WETL
2022-01-03 07:00:04FORECAST202296-18828.7115.7622.235117.137862554810.96852.11858.8610.9785TT-3.29-147.294349.1347896950340.8969030083990.348115505695371621151210WETL
2022-01-03 03:00:03FORECAST202296-18826.4116.6621.535119.180504768980.80382.58388.8611.4438TT-5.59-147.594350.4221186085241.7634849779780.250502941702611621151210WETL
2022-01-02 23:00:02FORECAST202296-18826.0217.2621.64124.314764621660.83343.24348.8612.1034TT-5.98-148.984353.6285297375743.9612474378290.23551167952532161115127.5WETL
2022-01-02 19:00:02FORECAST202296-18826.2719.1122.69123.887023114140.82553.16558.8612.0255TT-5.73-147.734353.3629934967743.7770893430180.24506407004863161115127.5WETL
2022-01-02 15:00:02FORECAST202296-1883116.0523.525124.424178096480.78083.18088.8612.0408TT-1-1444353.6964058449144.0083845929310.456534679097481621151210WETL
2022-01-02 11:00:03FORECAST202296-18830.1616.2923.225128.214874588280.67243.10248.8611.9624TT-1.84-144.844356.0364049174445.6491630053510.415924191967961621151210WETL
2022-01-02 07:00:07FORECAST202296-18825.9320.8423.385128.082036025540.81183.18188.8612.0418TT-6.07-149.074355.9547839649845.5914134632650.2321237070308161115127.5WETL
2022-01-02 03:00:08FORECAST202296-18830.2719.3324.8129.16476925150.86043.33048.8612.1904TT-1.73-143.734356.6192536486946.0626436081740.42120099119051621151210WETL
2022-01-01 23:00:03FORECAST202296-18827.7620.3124.035130.048890357990.95073.27078.8612.1307TT-4.24-139.244357.1604820687846.4483243727680.306045540940091621151210WETL
2022-01-01 19:00:02FORECAST202296-18825.9916.8721.43131.495305476040.8453.3158.8612.175TT-6.01-141.014358.0433109325247.0810145447240.23437933866911161115127.5WETL
2022-01-01 15:00:02FORECAST202296-18828.6217.3522.985131.623757964090.94863.35868.8612.2186TT-3.38-139.384358.121556046147.1373050147350.344038267779381621151210WETL
2022-01-01 11:00:05FORECAST202296-18826.7318.2922.51133.620980279341.02373.56378.8612.4237TT-5.27-138.274359.3348587172448.0146760703350.263170540116331621151210WETL
2022-01-01 07:00:07FORECAST202296-18828.5520.9124.73133.928357362080.97313.68318.8712.5531TT-3.45-139.454359.521042848548.15006270580.340879535236121621151210WETL
2022-01-01 03:00:08FORECAST202296-18828.5520.2424.395133.352376956860.94183.61188.8612.4718TT-3.45-142.454359.1720415328247.8964454748490.340879535236121621151210WETL
2021-12-31 23:00:04FORECAST202296-18830.8820.5825.73131.701442353880.86143.50148.5912.0914TT-1.12-138.124358.1688640655247.1713560036790.450695043387831621151210WETL
2021-12-31 19:00:03FORECAST202296-18830.218.9624.58133.949240430621.12933.89938.5912.4893TT-1.8-132.84359.5336868467848.1592642623470.41784132786281621151210WETL
2021-12-31 15:00:03FORECAST202296-18832.1620.8226.49131.822863713090.85433.56438.5912.1543TT0.16-132.844358.2427882055947.2245902458250.513280805581311631151212.5WETL
2021-12-31 11:00:03FORECAST202296-18826.2719.3322.8133.819562625380.66453.59458.5912.1845TT-5.73-142.734359.4551604312648.1021323523470.24506407004863161115127.5WETL
2021-12-31 07:00:06FORECAST202296-18825.8719.3322.6133.619027614280.67153.67158.612.2715TT-6.13-143.134359.3336754862548.0138163075370.22988018978674161115127.5WETL
2021-12-31 03:00:05FORECAST202296-18826.1518.8322.49132.149815159570.74223.40228.6212.0222TT-5.85-140.854358.4417305186947.3680084335220.24045314098428161115127.5WETL
2021-12-30 23:00:03FORECAST202296-18832.4620.0226.24131.795056201071.38044.11048.0412.1504TT0.46-133.544358.2258603599547.2123973988170.527959021809061631151212.5WETL
2021-12-30 19:00:04FORECAST202296-18832.4620.0926.275128.968171095541.41873.78878.0611.8487TT0.46-133.544356.4987377723445.9769902083680.527959021809061631151212.5WETL
2021-12-30 15:00:02FORECAST202296-1883122.9526.975128.435711757181.43683.65688.0711.7268TT-1-1354356.1720345526145.7452087657670.456534679097481621151210WETL
2021-12-30 11:00:03FORECAST202296-18831.3622.2126.785128.555151207610.97513.22518.0811.3051TT-0.64-134.644356.2453579423545.7971758572890.474104966249371621151210WETL
2021-12-30 07:00:11FORECAST202296-18831.7722.1626.965129.499176082550.97513.26518.3611.6251TT-0.23-130.234356.8241088966746.2084281085090.494175171019251621151210WETL
2021-12-30 03:00:08FORECAST202296-18831.6821.8926.785131.458347074150.85983.11988.6511.7698TT-0.32-134.324358.0207934870647.0648217299830.489766479936611621151210WETL
2021-12-29 23:00:04FORECAST202296-18829.7918.924.345130.51364151630.29762.34768.9511.2976TT-2.21-120.214357.4444996822846.6513832935080.398291128616371621151210WETL
2021-12-29 19:00:02FORECAST202296-18829.221.7125.455132.461074200990.33122.34129.1111.4512TT-2.8-122.84358.630970922947.5046436501920.370611773106481621151210WETL
2021-12-29 15:00:03FORECAST202296-18829.1121.8725.49132.426351942150.33122.3212911.3212TT-2.89-128.894358.6098677709847.4893965593690.366443818336891621151210WETL
2021-12-29 11:00:04FORECAST202296-18828.8920.3224.605134.025020758030.45522.65528.9211.5752TT-3.11-125.114359.5795636636348.1926584841820.356322425120821621151210WETL
2021-12-29 07:00:14FORECAST202296-18829.3920.1324.76132.961046338710.43882.88888.8311.7188TT-2.61-115.614358.9346328013547.7243243444680.379460265126621621151210WETL
2021-12-29 03:00:07FORECAST202296-18829.3920.1424.765133.809419415910.43882.96888.8311.7988TT-2.61-119.614359.449017118448.0976642902320.379460265126621621151210WETL
2021-12-28 23:00:04FORECAST202296-18826.0219.8322.925136.82924233410.6663.4968.6712.166TT-5.98-114.984361.2710230208449.4324403572060.23551167952532161115127.5WETL
2021-12-28 19:00:03FORECAST202296-18825.4122.0723.74137.005220609510.63393.39398.6712.0639TT-6.59-119.594361.3767689462449.5105039526320.21308803659939161115127.5WETL
2021-12-28 15:00:03FORECAST202296-18825.3622.2523.805135.651245766450.51473.26478.6611.9247TT-6.64-116.644360.5619424943148.9106766753240.21130686046409161115127.5WETL
2021-12-28 11:00:04FORECAST202296-18828.9123.0125.96137.57469310080.94913.48918.6812.1691TT-3.09-121.094361.7186430560449.7633313072740.357238508063741621151210WETL
2021-12-28 07:00:10FORECAST202296-18828.8624.1826.52137.046708511130.77783.27788.711.9778TT-3.14-120.144361.4016922784749.5289123771190.354949854643491621151210WETL
2021-12-28 03:00:10FORECAST202296-18828.8527.2928.07135.434925710290.48212.98218.7311.7121TT-3.15-119.154360.4315005676448.8150135030290.354492747913971621151210WETL