Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, January 30, 2022

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DAY 122 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/31/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.17°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 19.62°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.90°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.642 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 222 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.64 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.64 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.16 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.80 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 99 in SWE DAY: 30 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 362.16 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 36.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -162 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-31 07:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	122	-162	36.17006	19.61996	27.89501	99.405969166667	0.63999999999999	0.63999999999999	3.16	3.8	T	F	4.17006	222.17006	30	362.15551440707	36.000419898688	0.64172293185024	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-01-31 03:00:03	OBSERVATION	2022	122	-162	36.17006	19.61996	27.89501	99.405969166667	0.63999999999999	0.63999999999999	3.16	3.8	T	F	4.17006	222.17006	30	362.15551440707	36.000419898688	0.64172293185024	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-01-30 11:00:01	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	36.98	18.54	27.76	102.15759962174	0.7944	0.7944	3.16	3.9544	T	F	4.98	222.98	30	363.79742149672	37.164671328682	0.67496265065353	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-01-30 07:00:04	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	35.17	19.97	27.57	102.18823513862	0.8546	0.8546	3.16	4.0146	T	F	3.17	221.17	30	363.81563729587	37.177677891099	0.59917597219231	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-01-30 03:00:04	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	34.75	19.98	27.365	101.98225210217	0.8522	0.8522	3.16	4.0122	T	F	2.75	220.75	30	363.69313303588	37.090244781094	0.58091685628115	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-01-29 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	35.12	20.5	27.81	102.48386199704	0.8355	0.8355	3.16	3.9955	T	F	3.12	222.12	30	363.99134344628	37.303238609865	0.59701276132563	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-01-29 19:00:01	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	34.68	20.96	27.82	102.38476839117	0.7973	0.7973	3.16	3.9573	T	F	2.68	221.68	30	363.93246175176	37.261140806482	0.57785551416292	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-01-29 15:00:01	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	37.24	21.07	29.155	102.06445114171	0.8023	0.8023	3.16	3.9623	T	F	5.24	224.24	30	363.74202694351	37.125130337163	0.68535964856663	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-01-29 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	37.33	21.58	29.455	102.41594940207	0.9451	0.9451	3.16	4.1051	T	F	5.33	224.33	30	363.95099119266	37.27438629882	0.68892520784357	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-01-29 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	37.22	21.36	29.29	102.67232721797	0.9796	0.9896	3.16	4.1496	T	F	5.22	221.22	30	364.10328911231	37.383332040877	0.68456493548941	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-01-29 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	38.6	22.58	30.59	102.56300373263	0.9093	0.9193	3.16	4.0793	T	F	6.6	221.6	30	364.03835904069	37.33686757711	0.73724111346252	16	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2022-01-28 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	38.25	23.36	30.805	103.75185436916	1.0377	1.0377	3.16	4.1977	T	F	6.25	223.25	30	364.74348134702	37.842812558815	0.7243162312212	16	4	1	2	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2022-01-28 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	36.24	24.38	30.31	103.79762186	1.0456	1.0456	3.16	4.2056	T	F	4.24	221.24	30	364.77058408329	37.862319152327	0.64464046867463	16	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2022-01-28 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	34.92	23.28	29.1	103.87556537742	1.0946	1.0946	3.16	4.2546	T	F	2.92	219.92	30	364.81673366867	37.895544468977	0.58833082900468	16	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2022-01-28 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	37.12	22.72	29.92	102.64606475133	0.9823	0.9823	3.16	4.1423	T	F	5.12	222.12	30	364.0876927932	37.372168889614	0.68057862160235	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-01-28 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	34.83	23.35	29.09	102.90792682173	1.0821	1.0821	3.16	4.2421	T	F	2.83	217.83	30	364.2431565858	37.483508103248	0.58440953419969	16	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2022-01-28 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	35.29	21.79	28.54	103.0455753433	1.0212	1.0212	3.16	4.1812	T	F	3.29	216.29	30	364.32483510483	37.54206224523	0.60435517055396	16	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2022-01-27 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	35.27	22.02	28.645	103.81816214232	0.9864	0.9864	3.16	4.1464	T	F	3.27	213.27	30	364.78274666782	37.871074340282	0.60349322229476	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-01-27 19:00:01	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	37.3	23.12	30.21	102.76570862881	0.8197	0.8197	3.16	3.9797	T	F	5.3	215.3	30	364.15873649375	37.423030609152	0.68773863343667	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-01-27 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	34.97	23.02	28.995	103.36645950597	0.9048	0.9048	3.16	4.0648	T	F	2.97	213.97	30	364.51513199483	37.678638630656	0.59050554746266	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2022-01-27 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	32.34	25.4	28.87	103.1772451249	0.9032	0.9032	3.16	4.0632	T	F	0.34	211.34	30	364.4029392125	37.59809138336	0.47396438097309	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-01-27 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	32.6	25.95	29.275	102.56868225104	0.8643	0.8643	3.16	4.0243	T	F	0.6	212.6	30	364.04173210496	37.339280746392	0.48555020095074	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-01-27 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	33.85	26.48	30.165	101.69227012277	0.6661	0.6661	3.16	3.8261	T	F	1.85	208.85	30	363.52056343224	36.967231331733	0.54124811803325	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-01-26 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	34.49	27.72	31.105	102.03709219145	0.7008	0.7008	3.16	3.8608	T	F	2.49	211.49	30	363.72575433461	37.113518327446	0.56952293402376	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-01-26 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	36.11	28.13	32.12	101.6772961591	0.7331	0.7331	3.16	3.8931	T	F	4.11	214.11	30	363.51164890622	36.960881583122	0.63921091272067	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-01-26 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	34.65	25.73	30.19	102.39039593699	0.6681	0.6681	3.16	3.8281	T	F	2.65	208.65	30	363.93580605198	37.26353127731	0.57654205789905	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-01-26 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	38.64	28.71	33.675	100.72305263	0.4533	0.4533	3.16	3.6133	T	F	6.64	208.64	30	362.94285440771	36.556712226191	0.73869828678554	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-01-26 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	38.67	28.5	33.585	101.07765244866	0.4654	0.4654	3.16	3.6254	T	F	6.67	203.67	30	363.15438116757	36.706792324864	0.73978843972086	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-01-26 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	38.7	28.54	33.62	101.07638561784	0.4654	0.4654	3.17	3.6354	T	F	6.7	208.7	30	363.15362581358	36.70625592125	0.74087624716343	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-01-25 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	35.58	25.73	30.655	103.20409456849	0.5596	0.5696	3.17	3.7396	T	F	3.58	193.58	30	364.41886260558	37.609518758888	0.61679410127556	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-01-25 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	35.61	25.17	30.39	102.92054295654	0.5437	0.5537	3.17	3.7237	T	F	3.61	203.61	30	364.25064399526	37.488874052261	0.61807428425306	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-01-25 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	31.05	24.94	27.995	104.13429628079	0.6853	0.7153	3.17	3.8853	T	F	-0.95	199.05	30	364.96986019149	38.00587955474	0.41699434471961	16	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-01-25 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	34.04	25.5	29.77	103.00946366043	0.5537	0.5537	3.17	3.7237	T	F	2.04	191.04	30	364.30340974985	37.526698847998	0.54967063355415	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-01-25 07:00:04	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	34.18	25.5	29.84	102.89065224502	0.5537	0.5537	3.16	3.7137	T	F	2.18	188.18	30	364.23290410028	37.476161071974	0.55586263082833	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-01-25 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	35.75	26.52	31.135	101.50433652732	0.4459	0.4459	3.16	3.6059	T	F	3.75	200.75	30	363.40865538829	36.887554453476	0.62403121193801	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-01-24 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	37.45	26.6	32.025	102.8074731216	0.4777	0.4777	3.17	3.6477	T	F	5.45	205.45	30	364.18353087531	37.440788561794	0.69365181667144	16	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-01-24 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	37.63	26.58	32.105	102.91393823477	0.4873	0.4873	3.17	3.6573	T	F	5.63	204.63	30	364.24672426236	37.486064882954	0.70068157629087	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-01-24 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	36.17	28.37	32.27	103.41808245743	0.5453	0.5453	3.17	3.7153	T	F	4.17	201.17	30	364.54573194853	37.700620566157	0.64172042537626	16	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2022-01-24 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	38.7	29.85	34.275	101.32803801857	0.1928	0.1928	3.17	3.3628	F	F	6.7	200.7	30	363.3036270694	36.812843735973	0.74087624716343	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-01-24 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	38.76	30.04	34.4	101.09395036868	0.1928	0.1928	3.16	3.3528	F	F	6.76	196.76	30	363.16409866435	36.71369336606	0.74304479707913	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2022-01-24 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	39.05	30.49	34.77	100.49876942793	0.1519	0.1519	3.17	3.3219	F	F	7.05	203.05	30	362.80896604457	36.461854624899	0.75339168630025	16	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2022-01-23 23:00:04	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	44.89	32.7	38.795	100.64073333333	0.0139	0.0139	3.17	3.1839	F	F	12.89	210.89	30	362.89372184359	36.521890288402	0.90970749657034	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-01-23 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	44.9	32.73	38.815	100.540584	0.0021	0.0021	3.17	3.1721	F	F	12.9	209.9	30	362.83393350536	36.479535569646	0.90988978322031	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-01-23 15:00:04	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	44.34	35.25	39.795	100.68780133333	0.0586	0.0586	3.17	3.2286	F	F	12.34	204.34	30	362.92181580398	36.541799689203	0.89925681551382	16	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2022-01-23 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	33.9	32.51	33.205	100.81153110129	0.3523	0.5623	3.17	3.7323	T	F	1.9	186.9	30	362.9956516434	36.594147425282	0.54346652240735	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-01-23 07:00:10	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	33.55	32.84	33.195	101.44728047554	0.1937	0.5937	3.17	3.7637	T	F	1.55	175.55	30	363.37466988396	36.863372053425	0.52791310890925	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2022-01-23 03:00:09	FORECAST	2022	122	-162	33.49	32.99	33.24	101.27825838464	0.0988	0.4988	3.16	3.6588	T	F	1.49	177.49	30	363.27396276528	36.791754265354	0.52524186449992	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L