Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, January 18, 2022

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DAY 110 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/19/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.70°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.74°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.22°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.420 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 54 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.21 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.21 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.01 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.22 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 107 in SWE DAY: 18 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 355.73 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 37.98 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -174 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-19 07:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	110	-174	31.69994	26.74004	29.21999	106.76651875	0.21000000000004	0.21000000000004	15.01	15.22	T	T	-0.30006	53.69994	18	355.72690613359	37.979723393591	0.42020371503705	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-19 03:00:04	OBSERVATION	2022	110	-174	31.69994	26.74004	29.21999	106.76651875	0.21000000000004	0.21000000000004	15.01	15.22	T	T	-0.30006	53.69994	18	355.72690613359	37.979723393591	0.42020371503705	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-18 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	34.5	28.65	31.575	107.17105653248	0.0991	0.0991	15.01	15.1091	T	T	2.5	56.5	18	355.97561747561	38.150283024664	0.54796539926584	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-18 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	34.18	29.97	32.075	107.66819483085	0.1582	0.1582	15.01	15.1682	T	T	2.18	56.18	18	356.28091016841	38.360122450526	0.53336658298541	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-18 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	32.4	30.04	31.22	107.84921284918	0.2316	0.2316	15.01	15.2416	T	T	0.4	54.4	18	356.39197765126	38.436594255451	0.45188773136416	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-17 23:00:02	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	32.85	30.19	31.52	108.49433328243	0.362	0.452	15.01	15.462	T	T	0.85	55.85	18	356.78739007066	38.709410009296	0.4724305695817	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-17 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	33.18	30.43	31.805	108.48039400489	0.4051	0.4951	15.01	15.5051	T	T	1.18	56.18	18	356.77885314314	38.703510561581	0.48754520461337	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-17 15:00:01	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	33.37	30.56	31.965	108.51874078404	0.3881	0.4781	15.01	15.4881	T	T	1.37	56.37	18	356.80233739662	38.719740363083	0.49625709140155	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-17 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	33.51	30.77	32.14	108.07542107478	0.342	0.432	15.01	15.442	T	T	1.51	56.51	18	356.53070079151	38.532205614129	0.50267775220705	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-17 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	33.38	30.54	31.96	108.38668088197	0.321	0.481	15.01	15.491	T	T	1.38	52.38	18	356.72145192395	38.663854173434	0.49671569757625	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-17 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	33.41	30.6	32.005	108.33082890727	0.356	0.496	15.01	15.506	T	T	1.41	53.41	18	356.68723493959	38.640223821646	0.49809153971834	16	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-16 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	33.54	30.45	31.995	110.48484740688	0.37	0.52	15.01	15.53	T	T	1.54	52.54	18	358.00335623653	39.553946184942	0.50405357452413	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-01-16 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	33.22	29.95	31.585	110.53855546468	0.2995	0.3995	15.01	15.4095	T	T	1.22	52.22	18	358.03608033673	39.576791124658	0.48937893166806	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-16 15:00:03	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	33.46	30.05	31.755	110.43807149186	0.2722	0.3922	15.01	15.4022	T	T	1.46	52.46	18	357.97485222531	39.534052322346	0.50038465231699	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-16 11:00:03	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	33.42	30.12	31.77	109.55779787617	0.2658	0.3858	15.01	15.3958	T	T	1.42	52.42	18	357.43780462362	39.160098752258	0.49855015961814	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-16 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	34.84	29.92	32.38	109.12249138526	0.2832	0.3832	15.01	15.3932	T	T	2.84	50.84	18	357.17178370758	38.975474890687	0.56340544779349	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-16 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	35.82	30.52	33.17	109.40982529652	0.2655	0.3655	15.01	15.3755	T	T	3.82	47.82	18	357.34740983638	39.097317680364	0.60729280104411	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-15 23:00:04	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	33.47	30.06	31.765	110.46893498118	0.2622	0.3322	15.02	15.3522	T	T	1.47	47.47	18	357.99366000328	39.547178350578	0.50084327573612	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-15 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	34.05	29.91	31.98	110.53191087271	0.2326	0.2526	15.02	15.2726	T	T	2.05	49.05	18	358.03203205597	39.573964656787	0.5274218387097	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-15 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	36.91	30.57	33.74	110.9261241683	0.3324	0.3624	15.02	15.3824	T	T	4.91	50.91	18	358.27209207071	39.741734571072	0.65452935759212	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-15 11:00:05	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	37.49	31.37	34.43	110.42973608665	0.3327	0.3527	15.02	15.3727	T	T	5.49	51.49	18	357.96977249329	39.530507503434	0.67876815990937	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-15 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	32.68	31	31.84	109.8314355696	0.2585	0.2685	15.02	15.2885	T	T	0.68	47.68	18	357.60487733788	39.276257044711	0.46465833469148	16	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2022-01-15 03:00:08	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	38.08	31.75	34.915	109.4286053138	0.2222	0.2322	15.02	15.2522	T	T	6.08	53.08	18	357.35888422048	39.105284296742	0.70266717796427	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-14 23:00:04	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	37.43	30.16	33.795	111.04109601542	0.2312	0.2912	15.01	15.3012	T	T	5.43	50.43	18	358.34206003042	39.790695094202	0.67629350099571	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-14 19:00:03	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	38.2	30.83	34.515	110.74724235584	0.1893	0.2193	15.01	15.2293	T	T	6.2	50.2	18	358.16319004304	39.665585610638	0.70742694937865	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-14 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	37.49	31.86	34.675	110.95450156435	0.2699	0.3499	15.01	15.3599	T	T	5.49	48.49	18	358.28936348902	39.753817741732	0.67876815990937	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-14 11:00:02	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	37.94	31.28	34.61	110.75297411612	0.2572	0.3072	15.01	15.3172	T	T	5.94	43.94	18	358.166680267	39.668025068867	0.69706987847437	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-14 07:00:08	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	36.45	33.05	34.75	111.36844838122	0.4269	0.5069	15.01	15.5169	T	T	4.45	40.45	18	358.54116368441	39.930173080328	0.63483833267061	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-01-14 03:00:09	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	36.48	33.06	34.77	111.43018267359	0.4269	0.5269	15.01	15.5369	T	T	4.48	41.48	18	358.5786934288	39.956489311628	0.63613409263105	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-01-13 23:00:04	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	38.22	31.94	35.08	113.32947575765	0.1192	0.2892	14.62	14.9092	T	T	6.22	39.22	18	359.73044795362	40.768063080649	0.70821679327183	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-13 19:00:02	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	37.56	32.26	34.91	113.4688656386	0.1588	0.2288	14.62	14.8488	T	T	5.56	37.56	18	359.8147570287	40.827772320075	0.68164526314967	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-13 15:00:04	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	37.57	31.82	34.695	112.98875866667	0.1624	0.1924	14.62	14.8124	T	T	5.57	36.57	18	359.52424170903	40.622197781278	0.68205539096218	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-13 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	39.87	33.22	36.545	113.08028808687	0.3636	0.4636	14.63	15.0936	T	T	7.87	33.87	18	359.57965399069	40.661370863443	0.76971118348602	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-13 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	39.91	33.24	36.575	112.6843902076	0.3636	0.4836	14.81	15.2936	T	T	7.91	36.91	18	359.33988313673	40.491995608534	0.77110643849953	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-13 03:00:05	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	39.97	33.27	36.62	112.89761048043	0.2315	0.3415	14.93	15.2715	T	T	7.97	45.97	18	359.46904742434	40.583196495883	0.77319041314217	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-12 23:00:04	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	38.46	32.18	35.32	263.37974940842	0.2876	0.3876	12.86	13.2476	T	T	6.46	39.46	18	435.20860427737	114.62513313496	0.71761657331261	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-12 19:00:04	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	38.48	32.22	35.35	263.1605670894	0.2876	0.3876	12.88	13.2676	T	T	6.48	35.48	18	435.11800500376	114.5059009476	0.71839327372223	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-12 15:00:02	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	37	31.19	34.095	261.983056	0.437	0.497	12.84	13.337	T	T	5	44	18	434.63041509139	113.86580437619	0.65833550047563	16	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2022-01-12 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	38.72	31.4	35.06	261.66780181419	0.2214	0.3714	12.89	13.2614	T	T	6.72	45.72	18	434.49962532677	113.69456184835	0.72763252805078	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-12 07:00:07	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	38.75	31.4	35.075	262.13882658333	0.2214	0.3714	13.08	13.4514	T	T	6.75	35.75	18	434.69500111373	113.95043751359	0.72877677192631	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-12 03:00:07	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	38.99	31.75	35.37	262.05715502548	0.0941	0.3741	13.58	13.9541	T	T	6.99	37.99	18	434.6611414173	113.90606211995	0.73784367272252	16	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2022-01-11 23:00:03	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	35.87	29.75	32.81	295.5025599304	0.0869	0.1169	12.42	12.5369	T	T	3.87	39.87	18	447.95580526262	132.37208719079	0.60950075293057	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-11 19:00:04	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	35.34	29.53	32.435	295.86640623735	0.1077	0.1477	12.43	12.5777	T	T	3.34	39.34	18	448.09431511888	132.57605466961	0.58593052452312	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-11 15:00:04	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	35.39	29.67	32.53	295.86533044376	0.0907	0.1307	12.72	12.8507	T	T	3.39	36.39	18	448.09390577193	132.57545150105	0.58816883729944	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-11 11:00:04	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	36.08	35.22	35.65	295.20886666667	0.0353	0.1053	12.75	12.8553	T	T	4.08	34.08	18	447.84390802738	132.20749253233	0.61873488389143	16	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2022-01-11 07:00:06	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	35.35	34.84	35.095	295.06598133333	0.0138	0.0638	12.92	12.9838	T	T	3.35	29.35	18	447.78943847431	132.12743009412	0.58637841287477	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2022-01-11 03:00:06	FORECAST	2022	110	-174	35.35	35.16	35.255	294.636192	0.0042	0.0542	12.86	12.9142	T	T	3.35	41.35	18	447.62547856381	131.88666644622	0.58637841287477	16	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L