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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, January 13, 2022

[ Wednesday, January 12, 2022 | Index | Today | Friday, January 14, 2022 ]

DAY 105 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/14/2022 07:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.85°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.67°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.846
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -70

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.44 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 5.47 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.91 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.38 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 112 in
SWE DAY: 13
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 354.17 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 39.57 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -179

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 15.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-14 07:00:06OBSERVATION2022105-17942.4999430.8499836.67496111.720577083330.439999999999945.469999999999910.9116.38TT10.49994-69.5000613354.16795972959 39.5678488454160.8461002614522416 41151215WETL
2022-01-14 03:00:07OBSERVATION2022105-17942.4999430.8499836.67496111.720577083330.439999999999945.469999999999910.9116.38TT10.49994-69.5000613354.16795972959 39.5678488454160.8461002614522416 41151215WETL
2022-01-13 11:00:02FORECAST2022105-17933.7630.7832.27115.116840086870.04935.079310.9115.9893TT1.76-78.2413356.2614732934441.0116950502330.532507408567791631151212.5WETL
2022-01-13 07:00:05FORECAST2022105-17935.9930.933.445114.806440874270.24065.270610.9116.1806TT3.99-76.0113356.0708869754640.8792312325980.625868806706941631151212.5WETL
2022-01-13 03:00:04FORECAST2022105-17940.9130.4235.665114.918473147090.35555.385510.9116.2955TT8.91-71.0913356.139692554840.9270296954730.802085067781061641151215WETL
2022-01-12 23:00:02FORECAST2022105-17938.3330.4234.375265.074634741760.31273.322710.9114.2327TT6.33-74.6713432.80020326389114.724355796330.716374610942581641151215WETL
2022-01-12 19:00:02FORECAST2022105-17935.0531.5933.32264.91930308940.32653.336510.9114.2465TT3.05-77.9513432.73505154264114.639868277030.587078529608121631151212.5WETL
2022-01-12 15:00:01FORECAST2022105-17940.9331.6536.29264.5288280.2873.29710.9114.207TT8.93-72.0713432.57115857404114.427541604190.802681983128921641151215WETL
2022-01-12 11:00:03FORECAST2022105-17940.9332.1136.52264.183835147530.3373.34710.9114.257TT8.93-72.0713432.42622041773114.240017328310.802681983128921641151215WETL
2022-01-12 07:00:06FORECAST2022105-17938.633.2835.94264.358347916670.35453.544510.9114.4545TT6.6-74.413432.4995524741114.334867166750.726109480580381641151215WETL
2022-01-12 03:00:06FORECAST2022105-17938.932.0135.455264.476865692150.37234.042310.9114.9523TT6.9-78.113432.54933632886114.399292729480.736728845080771641151215WETL
2022-01-11 23:00:02FORECAST2022105-17938.8831.7635.32297.7032520.40342.883410.9113.7934TT6.88-76.1213445.9314742557132.755250055080.736027475890631641151215WETL
2022-01-11 19:00:02FORECAST2022105-17938.9832.5735.775297.802526666670.41122.891210.9113.8012TT6.98-76.0213445.96978945159132.810930115690.739524785473911641151215WETL
2022-01-11 15:00:03FORECAST2022105-17937.0231.9934.505297.9535160.68743.177410.9114.0874TT5.02-77.9813446.02804547657132.895624384350.66694331120221631151212.5WETL
2022-01-11 11:00:03FORECAST2022105-17937.4731.2234.345297.806681333330.68153.211510.9114.1215TT5.47-77.5313445.97139274036132.813260441610.684311923794541631151212.5WETL
2022-01-11 07:00:05FORECAST2022105-17937.9230.3334.125297.376249333330.69533.375310.9114.2853TT5.92-77.0813445.80519877414132.571877944750.701283039694221641151215WETL
2022-01-11 03:00:05FORECAST2022105-17937.5533.7435.645297.044586666670.40293.312910.9114.2229TT5.55-76.4513445.67701660481132.385945184210.687358942278481631151212.5WETL
2022-01-10 23:00:03FORECAST2022105-17937.7433.835.77296.4500360.37113.311110.9314.2411TT5.74-76.2613445.44696207741132.052767943940.694544237331851631151212.5WETL
2022-01-10 19:00:03FORECAST2022105-17938.0131.4634.735296.370058666670.29033.180310.9314.1103TT6.01-75.9913445.41598925149132.007962865540.704626924419891641151215WETL
2022-01-10 15:00:03FORECAST2022105-17936.9931.2934.14296.712818666670.32623.346210.9314.2762TT4.99-79.0113445.54868564527132.200006371040.665772040757651631151212.5WETL
2022-01-10 11:00:02FORECAST2022105-1793731.134.05296.806237234790.22483.084810.9314.0148TT5-7913445.58483175843132.252357283120.666162644208561631151212.5WETL
2022-01-10 07:00:07FORECAST2022105-17937.5232.4534.985296.532835529760.32142.891410.9913.8814TT5.52-72.4813445.47902122732132.099157333560.6862177942781631151212.5WETL
2022-01-10 03:00:07FORECAST2022105-17940.1631.7435.95296.213621574850.10972.799710.9913.7897TT8.16-68.8413445.35538765808131.920332266070.778923624926411641151215WETL
2022-01-09 23:00:03FORECAST2022105-17938.2131.6134.91297.498436050660.22192.561910.9913.5519TT6.21-69.7913445.85239471982132.640390138590.71199548856811641151215WETL
2022-01-09 19:00:02FORECAST2022105-17937.5731.2534.41297.577400830390.2682.17810.9513.128TT5.57-75.4313445.88288793207132.684670865570.688118712756011631151212.5WETL
2022-01-09 15:00:04FORECAST2022105-17941.3729.9935.68297.383433514140.31961.879610.9612.8396TT9.37-65.6313445.80797414726132.575906039890.815537646206221641151215WETL
2022-01-09 11:00:03FORECAST2022105-17938.6932.635.645296.993863865420.05291.862910.9812.8429TT6.69-66.3113445.65740355403132.357514241740.729317376015221641151215WETL
2022-01-09 07:00:07FORECAST2022105-17938.6832.635.64297.373090493540.05291.832910.9512.7829TT6.68-73.3213445.80397844374132.570106824130.728961870598881641151215WETL
2022-01-09 03:00:08FORECAST2022105-17938.6832.5935.635297.583718920520.05291.942910.9712.9129TT6.68-76.3213445.88532747535132.688213962210.728961870598881641151215WETL
2022-01-08 23:00:03FORECAST2022105-17939.1732.8436.005296.930164528830.3372.17710.8212.997TT7.17-70.8313445.63276927013132.321811498820.746103408787071641151215WETL
2022-01-08 19:00:04FORECAST2022105-17941.133.537.3296.803059259270.42542.355410.8113.1654TT9.1-64.913445.58360225663132.250576305530.807711764611411641151215WETL
2022-01-08 15:00:03FORECAST2022105-17938.8633.4936.175296.732697362810.42092.370910.8113.1809TT6.86-69.1413445.5563779566132.211145858260.735325156915361641151215WETL
2022-01-08 11:00:03FORECAST2022105-17938.3332.5435.435297.210062843460.36361.723610.8112.5336TT6.33-69.6713445.7409839252132.478705844310.716374610942581641151215WETL
2022-01-08 07:00:10FORECAST2022105-17938.3132.5535.43298.024894182190.36361.793610.8512.6436TT6.31-71.6913446.05557745457132.935666270270.715646974439391641151215WETL
2022-01-08 03:00:05FORECAST2022105-17939.9133.736.805297.894696618430.36611.666110.8712.5361TT7.91-68.0913446.00535392485132.862629597640.770872124706691641151215WETL
2022-01-07 23:00:03FORECAST2022105-17937.0230.1533.585298.781420055780.00932.07939.6411.7193TT5.02-72.9813446.34707785025133.360213757850.66694331120221631151212.5WETL
2022-01-07 19:00:03FORECAST2022105-17935.0730.0432.555298.573838777840.01042.45049.6712.1204TT3.07-74.9313446.26714952563133.243695954310.587914257500751631151212.5WETL
2022-01-07 15:00:03FORECAST2022105-17935.013032.505299.114938392740.01042.47049.7812.2504TT3.01-73.9913446.47540950889133.547464609130.585405893155361631151212.5WETL
2022-01-07 11:00:03FORECAST2022105-17934.3728.2531.31300.844531246780.08810.99819.9510.9481TT2.37-70.6313447.13918374585134.519378136090.55845314946491631141210WETL
2022-01-07 07:00:07FORECAST2022105-17935.5829.8432.71303.338687034520.10181.981810.2712.2518TT3.58-67.4213448.09125803675135.923413884520.60908070205091631151212.5WETL
2022-01-07 03:00:08FORECAST2022105-17937.330.6433.97304.175018835170.03371.893710.5112.4037TT5.3-71.713448.4091563941136.394863592030.677795492103971631151212.5WETL
2022-01-06 23:00:03FORECAST2022105-17937.6126.9332.27303.476277385780.00091.08099.5610.6409TT5.61-60.3913448.14360397237136.000952667780.689635854107741631141210WETL
2022-01-06 19:00:02FORECAST2022105-17938.7327.5433.135304.118730985101.149.5110.65TT6.73-66.2713448.38778198996136.363123248010.730737068019151641141212WETL
2022-01-06 15:00:02FORECAST2022105-17938.7731.835.285303.8288197263601.149.2910.43TT6.77-65.2313448.27764444438136.199667621250.732153020372131641141212WETL
2022-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2022105-17936.4632.9634.71308.699377646830.06020.68029.099.7702TT4.46-65.5413450.11725253298138.950915725030.64482250957266163113127.5WETL
2022-01-06 07:00:08FORECAST2022105-17936.0533.5434.795312.180096433970.04960.669610.1110.7796TT4.05-71.9513451.41804496166140.923728808170.62830655419999163113127.5WETL
2022-01-06 03:00:11FORECAST2022105-17936.0535.0535.55313.868366389750.0110.62110.5211.141TT4.05-67.9513452.04484483051141.882576981860.62830655419999163113127.5WETL