MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, January 10, 2022

[ Sunday, January 9, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, January 11, 2022 ]

DAY 102 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 01/11/2022 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.27°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.66°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.96°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.645
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -136

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.15 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.27 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 12.90 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 13.17 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 125 in
SWE DAY: 10
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.64 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 44.83 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -182

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 5.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-01-11 07:00:04OBSERVATION2022102-18236.2699629.6632.96498298.608326666670.150000000000090.2700000000000912.913.17TT4.26996-135.7300410444.54207900424 132.743966344380.6449643522865416 3112125WETL
2022-01-11 03:00:04OBSERVATION2022102-18236.2699629.6632.96498298.608326666670.150000000000090.2700000000000912.913.17TT4.26996-135.7300410444.54207900424 132.743966344380.6449643522865416 3112125WETL
2022-01-10 11:00:02FORECAST2022102-18234.6429.5932.115297.989031846150.1730.29312.913.193TT2.64-137.3610444.30065580757132.396722272710.5760635072977163112125WETL
2022-01-10 07:00:06FORECAST2022102-18238.4728.5533.51298.129247091830.230.3512.913.25TT6.47-133.5310444.35534997066132.475325927980.73060049280391164112126WETL
2022-01-10 03:00:07FORECAST2022102-18238.5728.7433.655297.781368625090.23330.353312.913.2533TT6.57-133.4310444.21961622289132.280325288960.73423436964944164112126WETL
2022-01-09 23:00:02FORECAST2022102-18237.6928.8733.28298.8010680.23090.350912.913.2509TT5.69-130.3110444.61713899128132.85207598170.70143083229838164112126WETL
2022-01-09 19:00:02FORECAST2022102-18235.9528.8532.4298.700590666670.18990.309912.913.2099TT3.95-132.0510444.57801430801132.795715471220.6317306317724163112125WETL
2022-01-09 15:00:02FORECAST2022102-18236.8329.2733.05298.675732083340.19640.316412.913.2164TT4.83-131.1710444.56833312929132.781772358460.66770430971099163112125WETL
2022-01-09 11:00:02FORECAST2022102-18240.3528.5134.43298.4369880.22070.340712.913.2407TT8.35-127.6510444.47532307926132.64787666010.79452009667192164112126WETL
2022-01-09 07:00:06FORECAST2022102-18236.8329.1232.975298.813193313770.19290.312912.913.2129TT4.83-131.1710444.62185976965132.858877734880.66770430971099163112125WETL
2022-01-09 03:00:08FORECAST2022102-18236.629.2532.925298.953326016520.20670.326712.913.2267TT4.6-135.410444.67640743267132.937491003080.65843406968257163112125WETL
2022-01-08 23:00:02FORECAST2022102-18237.3932.0834.735298.405882666670.15640.176412.913.0764TT5.39-128.6110444.46320089308132.630433775350.68984184501319163112125WETL
2022-01-08 19:00:03FORECAST2022102-18238.5632.7235.64298.372976592610.15410.174112.913.0741TT6.56-127.4410444.45037589032132.61198160210.7338721017223164112126WETL
2022-01-08 15:00:02FORECAST2022102-18239.1432.4735.805298.360686174870.14980.169812.913.0698TT7.14-127.8610444.4455854772132.605089850370.7544627723895164112126WETL
2022-01-08 11:00:02FORECAST2022102-18239.6932.0535.87298.686104114170.14970.169712.913.0697TT7.69-126.3110444.57237259245132.787589966430.77317005909814164112126WETL
2022-01-08 07:00:10FORECAST2022102-18239.6931.635.645299.316155867730.160.2112.913.11TT7.69-129.3110444.81755138138133.141079541970.77317005909814164112126WETL
2022-01-08 03:00:04FORECAST2022102-18239.2931.9235.605299.412480760320.13180.231812.913.1318TT7.29-126.7110444.85500075198133.195139353780.75964536590205164112126WETL
2022-01-07 23:00:03FORECAST2022102-18238.7231.7935.255299.390406430420.13360.293611.6111.9036TT6.72-129.2810444.84641946227133.182750321930.73963826142859164112126WETL
2022-01-07 19:00:02FORECAST2022102-18238.5832.3435.46299.167184636130.18360.323611.6111.9336TT6.58-130.4210444.75961602357133.057482165620.73459638775267164112126WETL
2022-01-07 15:00:03FORECAST2022102-18238.331.0734.685299.52194004330.20130.431311.6112.0413TT6.3-127.710444.89754541497133.256575923190.72436634199579164112126WETL
2022-01-07 11:00:03FORECAST2022102-18239.231.2735.235302.054158394370.3190.59911.6112.209TT7.2-126.810445.87847393143134.679447189530.75654297327911164113129WETL
2022-01-07 07:00:07FORECAST2022102-18236.1430.8933.515304.39156214060.16410.474112.0612.5341TT4.14-123.8610446.7783526345135.995560689020.63960914057198163112125WETL
2022-01-07 03:00:07FORECAST2022102-18236.9930.4233.705305.445691729550.16270.502712.2712.7727TT4.99-131.0110447.18243799806136.589949103620.67409364267155163113127.5WETL
2022-01-06 23:00:02FORECAST2022102-18238.133.135.6305.022742719110.35010.770111.0511.8201TT6.1-122.910447.02043655232136.351399608680.7169425084737164113129WETL
2022-01-06 19:00:02FORECAST2022102-18236.2131.433.805305.735060318430.38130.811310.9611.7713TT4.21-129.7910447.29317413547136.753205574330.64249708379321163113127.5WETL
2022-01-06 15:00:02FORECAST2022102-18238.3531.2334.79305.389498393030.38130.791310.7611.5513TT6.35-128.6510447.16092438315136.558250398330.72620724778539164113129WETL
2022-01-06 11:00:03FORECAST2022102-18237.9830.5834.28310.28646031350.11290.472910.8811.3529TT5.98-128.0210449.02424741392139.3261443250.71244267274356164112126WETL
2022-01-06 07:00:08FORECAST2022102-18237.7130.2833.995313.538180433970.11580.425811.9412.3658TT5.71-134.2910450.24880321498141.17019050260.7021963893633164112126WETL
2022-01-06 03:00:10FORECAST2022102-18241.5630.2935.925315.123731723080.1070.39712.3812.777TT9.56-126.4410450.84224313783142.0710900760.83042355649424164112126WETL
2022-01-05 23:00:04FORECAST2022102-18242.2928.4735.38147.33383930780.05210.212113.513.7121TT10.29-122.7110372.6948554936554.9105639501460.85001146683893165112127WETL
2022-01-05 19:00:03FORECAST2022102-18242.3231.6736.995143.176793278320.05240.232413.6413.8724TT10.32-121.6810370.3043391904153.0189878223310.85078289007656165112127WETL
2022-01-05 15:00:03FORECAST2022102-18242.3831.6737.025144.607301642960.05240.262413.4613.7224TT10.38-120.6210371.1298054612353.6680797270240.85231779695947165112127WETL
2022-01-05 11:00:04FORECAST2022102-18240.2331.1935.71146.481642472470.42950.609513.5114.1195TT8.23-122.7710372.2068529808854.5214711641470.79072935385783164113129WETL
2022-01-05 07:00:05FORECAST2022102-18240.3532.2436.295149.680547599890.43120.621213.1413.7612TT8.35-127.6510374.0332293306455.9854985867640.79452009667192164113129WETL
2022-01-05 03:00:06FORECAST2022102-18240.3532.2436.295146.511065990590.43120.591213.2813.8712TT8.35-125.6510372.2237196940654.5348939593610.79452009667192164113129WETL
2022-01-04 23:00:03FORECAST2022102-18243.1631.8637.51141.200732351850.00440.224412.6712.8944TT11.16-113.8410369.1591206104952.1255381845650.87131195384458165112127WETL
2022-01-04 19:00:03FORECAST2022102-18243.063237.53145.0564596203300.2512.5412.79TT11.06-110.9410371.3883712697753.8722822805540.86897596854255165112127WETL
2022-01-04 15:00:03FORECAST2022102-18243.0931.9937.54143.0641830582900.2311.812.03TT11.09-113.9110370.2392307018652.9679730764920.86967981065047165112127WETL
2022-01-04 11:00:04FORECAST2022102-18242.7531.7737.26145.2425886478500.1711.7911.96TT10.75-121.2510371.4954333485353.9569584103940.86154952534358165112127WETL
2022-01-04 07:00:05FORECAST2022102-18242.9431.4337.185143.8456028062300.1212.2712.39TT10.94-115.0610370.690645065953.3222192941360.86613443917007165112127WETL
2022-01-04 03:00:07FORECAST2022102-18242.9431.4337.185145.3070089160100.161212.16TT10.94-111.0610371.5324763267853.9862728502020.86613443917007165112127WETL
2022-01-03 23:00:04FORECAST2022102-18241.3732.6337136.097066869510.29490.444910.9811.4249TT9.37-122.6310366.1745786302549.8352861137540.82506821590039164112126WETL
2022-01-03 19:00:03FORECAST2022102-18240.0531.135.575135.438307388550.06810.188111.1211.3081TT8.05-117.9510365.7865197126849.5415070954330.78496686617425164112126WETL
2022-01-03 15:00:03FORECAST2022102-18239.9931.2935.64133.0709588240400.1210.6710.79TT7.99-124.0110364.3866015044248.4892744448270.78302579121223164112126WETL
2022-01-03 11:00:05FORECAST2022102-18236.2232.5934.405140.013867396870.19520.565211.311.8652TT4.22-123.7810368.468509447451.5907010216910.64290898667576163113127.5WETL
2022-01-03 07:00:05FORECAST2022102-1823634.3635.18144.670978123780.13060.460611.7212.1806TT4-12210371.1664799122953.6970176956720.63380945571558163112125WETL
2022-01-03 03:00:04FORECAST2022102-18237.3836.8237.1144.305604665830.05090.380912.0912.4709TT5.38-122.6210370.9559625201453.5310244758620.68945219347341163112125WETL