MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 25, 2022

[ Saturday, September 24, 2022 | Index | Today | Monday, September 26, 2022 ]

DAY 360 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/26/2022 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 75.48°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 55.70°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.59°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.948
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 43
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 492

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 267
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 474.60 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 75

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-26 04:00:07OBSERVATION20223607575.4800855.7000665.590070000.190.19FF43.48008492.48008267474.59762252586 00.9476748611626616 54315160DRYH
2022-09-26 00:00:02FORECAST20223607560.8460.8460.8400.00020.00020.190.1902FF28.84477.84268475.0652824436600.644840825694961634315225DRYL
2022-09-25 12:00:01FORECAST20223607571.8259.9365.8750000.190.19FF39.82488.82268475.0652824436600.90480370905621654315160DRYH
2022-09-25 08:00:02FORECAST20223607572.0657.2864.6700.00130.00130.190.1913FF40.06489.06268475.0652824436600.908232259145981654315160DRYH
2022-09-25 04:00:11FORECAST20223607570.1355.5562.8400.00190.00190.190.1919FF38.13487.13268475.0652824436600.877972007553831654315160DRYH
2022-09-25 00:00:03FORECAST20223607571.4455.9263.6800.00080.00080.190.1908FF39.44479.44267474.5976225258600.899184384445651654315160DRYH
2022-09-24 20:00:01FORECAST20223607571.2955.5763.430000.190.19FF39.29489.29267474.5976225258600.896901118956181654315160DRYH
2022-09-24 16:00:02FORECAST20223607571.4855.7363.6050000.190.19FF39.48489.48267474.5976225258600.89978700085291654315160DRYH
2022-09-24 12:00:04FORECAST20223607570.9955.3363.160000.190.19FF38.99488.99267474.5976225258600.892222761520031654315160DRYH
2022-09-24 08:00:02FORECAST20223607570.8655.4963.1750000.190.19FF38.86486.86267474.5976225258600.890148825998081654315160DRYH
2022-09-24 04:00:07FORECAST20223607570.9553.9962.470000.190.19FF38.95484.95267474.5976225258600.8915876441411654315160DRYH
2022-09-24 00:00:03FORECAST20223607570.6955.1762.930000.190.19FF38.69473.69267474.5976225258600.887393891340081654315160DRYH
2022-09-23 20:00:02FORECAST20223607570.154.9662.530000.190.19FF38.1484.1267474.5976225258600.877452134688331654315160DRYH
2022-09-23 16:00:04FORECAST20223607569.8654.5762.2150000.190.19FF37.86482.86267474.5976225258600.873237355320711654315160DRYH
2022-09-23 12:00:03FORECAST20223607569.6354.1661.8950000.190.19FF37.63482.63267474.5976225258600.869104750140141654315160DRYH
2022-09-23 08:00:02FORECAST20223607569.2253.8661.540000.190.19FF37.22482.22267474.5976225258600.861509757390151654315160DRYH
2022-09-23 04:00:09FORECAST20223607568.7654.0461.40000.190.19FF36.76477.76267474.5976225258600.852638505201741654315160DRYH
2022-09-23 00:00:03FORECAST20223607568.353.8761.085000.020.190.21FF36.3470.3267474.5976225258600.843395336090471644315155DRYH
2022-09-22 20:00:04FORECAST20223607569.4853.1861.33000.010.210.22FF37.48480.48267474.5976225258600.86636008612641654315160DRYH
2022-09-22 16:00:03FORECAST20223607569.7753.1361.450000.210.21FF37.77481.77267474.5976225258600.871631166870261654315160DRYH
2022-09-22 12:00:05FORECAST20223607569.9552.7361.340000.210.21FF37.95480.95267474.5976225258600.874829538773951654315160DRYH
2022-09-22 08:00:04FORECAST20223607565.3253.859.560000.20.2FF33.32476.32267474.5976225258600.77456352603721644315227.5DRYL
2022-09-22 04:00:08FORECAST20223607568.7253.9761.3450000.20.2FF36.72477.72267474.5976225258600.851849534224021654315160DRYH
2022-09-22 00:00:04FORECAST20223607569.7653.461.580000.210.21FF37.76468.76267474.5976225258600.871451835773711654315160DRYH
2022-09-21 20:00:03FORECAST20223607570.151.7760.9350000.190.19FF38.1486.1267474.5976225258600.877452134688331654315160DRYH
2022-09-21 16:00:04FORECAST20223607570.645462.320000.20.2FF38.64486.64267474.5976225258600.886574334311321654315160DRYH
2022-09-21 12:00:04FORECAST20223607571.5950.8561.220000.190.19FF39.59486.59267474.5976225258600.901430673951431654315160DRYH
2022-09-21 08:00:03FORECAST20223607569.3450.8960.1150000.190.19FF37.34485.34267474.5976225258600.863763036825471654315160DRYH
2022-09-21 04:00:12FORECAST20223607571.9150.5661.2350000.190.19FF39.91487.91267474.5976225258600.906100269057341654315160DRYH
2022-09-21 00:00:04FORECAST20223607569.8150.4960.150000.190.19FF37.81470.81267474.5976225258600.872346759207211654315160DRYH
2022-09-20 20:00:03FORECAST20223607569.7851.8460.810000.190.19FF37.78484.78267474.5976225258600.871810324724931654315160DRYH
2022-09-20 16:00:04FORECAST20223607569.7851.8460.810000.190.19FF37.78483.78267474.5976225258600.871810324724931654315160DRYH
2022-09-20 12:00:04FORECAST20223607568.4550.0659.255000.010.190.2FF36.45482.45267474.5976225258600.846450347896461644315155DRYH
2022-09-20 08:00:05FORECAST20223607568.995059.495000.010.190.2FF36.99471.99267474.5976225258600.85712052987821654315160DRYH
2022-09-20 04:00:12FORECAST20223607568.9950.0159.5000.020.190.21FF36.99480.99267474.5976225258600.85712052987821654315160DRYH
2022-09-20 00:00:18FORECAST20223607568.3949.4758.93000.010.20.21FF36.39464.39267474.5976225258600.845233099103681644315155DRYH
2022-09-19 20:00:14FORECAST20223607568.255059.125000.010.190.2FF36.25473.25267474.5976225258600.842368190749381644315155DRYH
2022-09-19 16:00:09FORECAST20223607568.255059.125000.010.210.22FF36.25472.25267474.5976225258600.842368190749381644315155DRYH
2022-09-19 12:00:04FORECAST20223607570.7951.6561.22000.010.210.22FF38.79473.79267474.5976225258600.889020338098021654315160DRYH
2022-09-19 08:00:11FORECAST20223607568.1251.0159.565000.010.220.23FF36.12467.12267474.5976225258600.839676999783671644315155DRYH
2022-09-19 04:00:07FORECAST20223607570.451.0860.740000.230.23FF38.4479.4267474.5976225258600.882581439429111654315160DRYH
2022-09-19 00:00:05FORECAST20223607568.4649.5659.010000.210.21FF36.46463.46267474.5976225258600.846652606274141644315155DRYH
2022-09-18 20:00:08FORECAST20223607569.7550.3160.030000.20.2FF37.75481.75267474.5976225258600.871272331398681654315160DRYH
2022-09-18 16:00:05FORECAST20223607569.0250.3159.6650000.230.23FF37.02483.02267474.5976225258600.857698295401261654315160DRYH
2022-09-18 12:00:05FORECAST20223607561.2650.8756.0650000.160.16FF29.26475.26267474.5976225258600.658101705554421634315225DRYL
2022-09-18 08:00:03FORECAST20223607552.2850.4651.370000.170.17FF20.28464.28267474.5976225258600.35964629638921624315222.5DRYL
2022-09-18 04:00:09FORECAST20223607552.9852.3652.670000.190.19FF20.98472.98267474.5976225258600.382226060466261624315222.5DRYL