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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 20, 2022

[ Monday, September 19, 2022 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 21, 2022 ]

DAY 355 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/21/2022 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 62.37°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 54.24°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.764
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 30
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 505

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.16 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 262
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 472.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 70

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-21 04:00:09OBSERVATION20223557062.3699646.1100254.23999000.030.160.19FF30.36996505.36996262472.23247964746 00.7644015628425216 44415230DRYL
2022-09-21 00:00:02FORECAST20223557046.746.746.7000.030.160.19FF14.7489.7263472.7091100534800.243531074090971614315220DRYL
2022-09-20 12:00:02FORECAST20223557061.3149.9555.63000.030.160.19FF29.31504.31263472.7091100534800.733939104026761644415230DRYL
2022-09-20 08:00:02FORECAST20223557061.2646.4153.83500.00150.03150.160.1915FF29.26504.26263472.7091100534800.732454477021291644415230DRYL
2022-09-20 04:00:10FORECAST20223557060.8948.2254.55500.00140.03140.160.1914FF28.89503.89263472.7091100534800.721340205755881644415230DRYL
2022-09-20 00:00:10FORECAST20223557060.8745.7253.29500.00030.03030.160.1903FF28.87491.87262472.2324796474600.720733096763981644315227.5DRYL
2022-09-19 20:00:05FORECAST20223557060.3247.7454.03000.030.160.19FF28.32500.32262472.2324796474600.703790919513361644415230DRYL
2022-09-19 16:00:01FORECAST20223557060.3448.1754.255000.030.160.19FF28.34500.34262472.2324796474600.704415172583731644415230DRYL
2022-09-19 12:00:03FORECAST20223557060.7247.8254.27000.030.160.19FF28.72500.72262472.2324796474600.716159428151871644415230DRYL
2022-09-19 08:00:05FORECAST20223557060.947.5154.205000.030.160.19FF28.9500.9262472.2324796474600.721643519355591644415230DRYL
2022-09-19 04:00:05FORECAST2022355706147.954.45000.030.160.19FF29500262472.2324796474600.724667784125971644415230DRYL
2022-09-19 00:00:04FORECAST20223557061.1247.9154.5150000.160.16FF29.12490.12262472.2324796474600.728275450212871644315227.5DRYL
2022-09-18 20:00:04FORECAST20223557060.7747.6354.20000.160.16FF28.77499.77262472.2324796474600.717687958328471644415230DRYL
2022-09-18 16:00:02FORECAST20223557060.9248.254.560000.160.16FF28.92499.92262472.2324796474600.722249663954221644415230DRYL
2022-09-18 12:00:04FORECAST20223557060.7448.0854.410000.160.16FF28.74499.74262472.2324796474600.716771314943391644415230DRYL
2022-09-18 08:00:02FORECAST20223557060.9349.1255.025000.010.160.17FF28.93500.93262472.2324796474600.722552494630841644415230DRYL
2022-09-18 04:00:07FORECAST20223557061.0649.4155.235000.030.160.19FF29.06500.06262472.2324796474600.726474557493451644415230DRYL
2022-09-18 00:00:04FORECAST20223557062.2950.4156.35000.080.160.24FF30.29495.29262472.2324796474600.762172609774031644315227.5DRYL
2022-09-17 20:00:07FORECAST20223557063.3449.8956.615000.130.160.29FF31.34504.34262472.2324796474600.790506892715071644425260DRYH
2022-09-17 16:00:03FORECAST20223557062.0849.0555.56500.00120.11120.160.2712FF30.08503.08262472.2324796474600.756264082732761644425260DRYH
2022-09-17 12:00:04FORECAST20223557058.4847.6453.0600.00190.11190.160.2719FF26.48500.48262472.2324796474600.643981641275761634425255DRYH
2022-09-17 08:00:03FORECAST20223557057.5549.3253.435000.050.170.22FF25.55496.55262472.2324796474600.612221888854951634315225DRYL
2022-09-17 04:00:10FORECAST20223557062.6847.0454.86000.030.160.19FF30.68499.68262472.2324796474600.772934451698831644415230DRYL
2022-09-17 00:00:07FORECAST20223557064.0648.9456.5000.150.140.29FF32.06488.06262472.2324796474600.808735191393151644325255DRYH
2022-09-16 20:00:04FORECAST20223557063.5248.2955.905000.080.160.24FF31.52494.52262472.2324796474600.795157054049751644315227.5DRYL
2022-09-16 16:00:03FORECAST20223557064.2650.1157.185000.140.160.3FF32.26501.26262472.2324796474600.813621098244991644425260DRYH
2022-09-16 12:00:03FORECAST20223557062.2947.7255.005000.120.160.28FF30.29500.29262472.2324796474600.762172609774031644425260DRYH
2022-09-16 08:00:04FORECAST20223557058.3345.6151.97000.040.160.2FF26.33491.33262472.2324796474600.638919614609211634315225DRYL
2022-09-16 04:00:11FORECAST20223557061.1245.9353.525000.040.170.21FF29.12497.12262472.2324796474600.728275450212871644315227.5DRYL
2022-09-16 00:00:04FORECAST20223557062.5848.0455.31000.10.190.29FF30.58490.58262472.2324796474600.770201431068241644325255DRYH
2022-09-15 20:00:04FORECAST20223557063.9145.854.855000.070.220.29FF31.91501.91262472.2324796474600.805019845646231644415230DRYL
2022-09-15 16:00:04FORECAST20223557063.8445.8754.855000.060.220.28FF31.84494.84262472.2324796474600.803271135428161644315227.5DRYL
2022-09-15 12:00:12FORECAST20223557055.1541.5648.355000.060.240.3FF23.15479.15262472.2324796474600.527236010464611634315225DRYL
2022-09-15 08:00:12FORECAST20223557056.4940.948.695000.050.270.32FF24.49481.49262472.2324796474600.575096705339221634315225DRYL
2022-09-15 04:00:09FORECAST20223557056.4740.948.685000.080.250.33FF24.47485.47262472.2324796474600.574388666016251634315225DRYL
2022-09-15 00:00:03FORECAST20223557055.6641.8848.77000.110.270.38FF23.66471.66262472.2324796474600.545536356224441634325250DRYMH
2022-09-14 20:00:03FORECAST20223557055.8641.6948.775000.090.320.41FF23.86481.86262472.2324796474600.552688823207671634315225DRYL
2022-09-14 16:00:05FORECAST20223557055.7942.7249.255000.080.280.36FF23.79481.79262472.2324796474600.550187286845231634315225DRYL
2022-09-14 12:00:04FORECAST20223557051.6539.3145.4800.18340.40340.220.6234FF19.65475.65262472.2324796474600.402133106509351624325245DRYM
2022-09-14 08:00:07FORECAST20223557046.7235.3441.0300.18450.38450.240.6245FF14.72461.72262472.2324796474600.244097631663341614325240DRYM
2022-09-14 04:00:10FORECAST20223557046.5335.3740.9500.18450.34450.260.6045FF14.53468.53262472.2324796474600.238744093359361614325240DRYM
2022-09-14 00:00:04FORECAST20223557053.1637.3545.25500.06630.53630.260.7963FF21.16469.16262472.2324796474600.455636902721241624335267.5DRYH
2022-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20223557050.1735.4442.80500.05330.51330.240.7533FF18.17472.17262472.2324796474600.351409233572121624335267.5DRYH
2022-09-13 16:00:04FORECAST20223557050.235.4642.8300.05120.51120.310.8212FF18.2475.2262472.2324796474600.35241497430121624335267.5DRYH
2022-09-13 12:00:04FORECAST20223557043.2436.3939.81500.00060.65060.290.9406FF11.24461.24262472.2324796474600.156806980704311614335260DRYH
2022-09-13 08:00:04FORECAST20223557036.7435.536.1200.00080.59080.250.8408FF4.74453.74262472.2324796474600.0552545233822581614335260DRYH
2022-09-13 04:00:09FORECAST20223557036.4735.8936.1800.00080.59080.250.8408FF4.47455.47262472.2324796474600.0525754312681211614335260DRYH