MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 19, 2022

[ Sunday, September 18, 2022 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 20, 2022 ]

DAY 354 OF WATER YEAR 2022, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/20/2022 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 63.95°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.30°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 55.12°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.817
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 32
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 526

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.03 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.16 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.19 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 261
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 471.75 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 69

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 30.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2022-09-20 04:00:08OBSERVATION20223546963.9546.2999255.12496000.030.160.19FF31.95525.95261471.75403460025 00.8174581558655416 44415230DRYL
2022-09-20 00:00:04FORECAST20223546951.551.551.500.0010.0310.160.191FF19.5513.5262472.2324796474600.391155838474411624415225DRYL
2022-09-19 12:00:01FORECAST20223546960.8550.8855.86500.00180.03180.160.1918FF28.85522.85262472.2324796474600.729512568116261644415230DRYL
2022-09-19 08:00:02FORECAST20223546960.9547.4654.205000.030.160.19FF28.95522.95262472.2324796474600.732645594650161644415230DRYL
2022-09-19 04:00:05FORECAST20223546959.5746.9153.24000.030.160.19FF27.57521.57262472.2324796474600.687867214260711634415227.5DRYL
2022-09-19 00:00:03FORECAST20223546960.9546.6553.80000.160.16FF28.95511.95261471.7540346002500.732645594650161644415230DRYL
2022-09-18 20:00:02FORECAST20223546961.1446.1353.63500.00380.00380.160.1638FF29.14522.14261471.7540346002500.738547540300071644415230DRYL
2022-09-18 16:00:02FORECAST20223546960.8548.6654.7550000.160.16FF28.85521.85261471.7540346002500.729512568116261644415230DRYL
2022-09-18 12:00:03FORECAST20223546961.0649.0855.070000.160.16FF29.06522.06261471.7540346002500.736070677025381644415230DRYL
2022-09-18 08:00:02FORECAST20223546962.3247.6654.99000.010.160.17FF30.32523.32261471.7540346002500.77364915244461644415230DRYL
2022-09-18 04:00:07FORECAST20223546962.7147.7255.215000.030.160.19FF30.71521.71261471.7540346002500.78463805852731644415230DRYL
2022-09-18 00:00:04FORECAST20223546962.8148.3355.5700.00180.08180.160.2418FF30.81515.81261471.7540346002500.78740513999091644415230DRYL
2022-09-17 20:00:06FORECAST20223546962.3549.1955.7700.00130.13130.160.2913FF30.35524.35261471.7540346002500.774505518302351644425260DRYH
2022-09-17 16:00:02FORECAST20223546962.0548.855.425000.110.160.27FF30.05524.05261471.7540346002500.765859852215621644425260DRYH
2022-09-17 12:00:04FORECAST20223546962.0448.8255.43000.110.160.27FF30.04525.04261471.7540346002500.76556854182491644425260DRYH
2022-09-17 08:00:03FORECAST20223546961.2748.0154.6400.00020.06020.160.2202FF29.27522.27261471.7540346002500.742546867140941644415230DRYL
2022-09-17 04:00:09FORECAST20223546960.9747.7454.35500.00020.03020.160.1902FF28.97519.97261471.7540346002500.733269998694391644415230DRYL
2022-09-17 00:00:06FORECAST20223546955.9146.7651.33500.0040.1540.140.294FF23.91506.91261471.7540346002500.55659854912851634425255DRYH
2022-09-16 20:00:03FORECAST20223546955.2646.8451.0500.00020.08020.160.2402FF23.26514.26261471.7540346002500.532137388206161634415227.5DRYL
2022-09-16 16:00:03FORECAST20223546961.9347.654.765000.140.160.3FF29.93519.93261471.7540346002500.762350948722891644425260DRYH
2022-09-16 12:00:03FORECAST20223546961.7945.6553.72000.120.160.28FF29.79520.79261471.7540346002500.758221081091741644425260DRYH
2022-09-16 08:00:04FORECAST20223546956.7346.5551.6400.00030.04030.160.2003FF24.73515.73261471.7540346002500.58714100649221634415227.5DRYL
2022-09-16 04:00:10FORECAST2022354696045.1552.57500.00030.04030.170.2103FF28519261471.7540346002500.702165170502621644415230DRYL
2022-09-16 00:00:04FORECAST20223546959.4545.6452.545000.10.190.29FF27.45511.45261471.7540346002500.683824811582651634425255DRYH
2022-09-15 20:00:04FORECAST20223546960.1544.8452.495000.070.220.29FF28.15521.15261471.7540346002500.707081679987691644415230DRYL
2022-09-15 16:00:03FORECAST20223546958.4541.2349.84000.070.210.28FF26.45514.45261471.7540346002500.649319668221031634415227.5DRYL
2022-09-15 12:00:11FORECAST20223546955.8141.2748.54000.080.220.3FF23.81506.81261471.7540346002500.552846935848471634415227.5DRYL
2022-09-15 08:00:10FORECAST20223546952.2241.2746.745000.10.220.32FF20.22508.22261471.7540346002500.417631982243921624425250DRYMH
2022-09-15 04:00:09FORECAST20223546955.8141.2748.54000.140.190.33FF23.81511.81261471.7540346002500.552846935848471634425255DRYH
2022-09-15 00:00:03FORECAST20223546950.8638.2144.53500.00350.15350.230.3835FF18.86498.86261471.7540346002500.368033585952611624325245DRYM
2022-09-14 20:00:03FORECAST20223546953.8539.7646.80500.00340.18340.230.4134FF21.85508.85261471.7540346002500.478781129490921624425250DRYMH
2022-09-14 16:00:04FORECAST2022354695438.4246.2100.00340.15340.210.3634FF22509261471.7540346002500.484456019308981624425250DRYMH
2022-09-14 12:00:04FORECAST20223546950.8136.9743.8900.14450.24450.20.4445FF18.81506.81261471.7540346002500.366245918551891624425250DRYMH
2022-09-14 08:00:07FORECAST20223546945.835.6340.71500.14570.19570.240.4357FF13.8497.8261471.7540346002500.206823360417451614325240DRYM
2022-09-14 04:00:10FORECAST20223546946.1435.6140.87500.14570.17570.240.4157FF14.14505.14261471.7540346002500.21616681435611614425245DRYM
2022-09-14 00:00:04FORECAST20223546946.8237.0341.92500.4590.5090.220.729FF14.82498.82261471.7540346002500.235567941640871614335260DRYH
2022-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20223546943.2234.238.7100.46080.49080.210.7008FF11.22505.22261471.7540346002500.143987639400321614435267.5DRYH
2022-09-13 16:00:04FORECAST20223546943.1334.2138.6700.46080.49080.280.7708FF11.13508.13261471.7540346002500.142056420245131614435267.5DRYH
2022-09-13 12:00:04FORECAST20223546941.8234.6138.21500.52010.68010.260.9401FF9.82500.82261471.7540346002500.115919901480141614435267.5DRYH
2022-09-13 08:00:04FORECAST20223546939.0431.2935.16500.52840.61840.220.8384FF7.04500.04261471.7540346002500.0721369478655061614435267.5DRYH
2022-09-13 04:00:09FORECAST2022354693931.2935.14500.52840.61840.220.8384FF7502261471.7540346002500.0716152936862331614435267.5DRYH
2022-09-13 00:00:06FORECAST20223546947.6636.0641.8600.28050.50050.070.5705FF15.66502.66261471.7540346002500.260802640335571624435275DRYVH
2022-09-12 20:00:04FORECAST20223546948.1137.8542.9800.1910.4810.10.581FF16.11521.11261471.7540346002500.274870889502441624425250DRYMH
2022-09-12 16:00:05FORECAST20223546948.1940.9844.58500.05170.35170.140.4917FF16.19523.19261471.7540346002500.277410463557611624425250DRYMH
2022-09-12 12:00:06FORECAST20223546945.3740.4442.90500.00440.29440.150.4444FF13.37523.37261471.7540346002500.195354879767321614425245DRYM
2022-09-12 08:00:06FORECAST20223546946.1643.7944.97500.00480.39480.130.5248FF14.16526.16261471.7540346002500.216723922486821614425245DRYM
2022-09-12 04:00:10FORECAST20223546946.1245.1945.65500.00360.39360.220.6136FF14.12530.12261471.7540346002500.21561053486971614425245DRYM